Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 3/24/15

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley here, just wrapping up some editing on the debut piece from one of our new prospect writers, who saw Matuella back to normal last weekend

Comment From neal
i really hope this aiken thing doesn’t end up being horribly depressing

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah the indications are that it’s headed that way. Radio silence from his camp, as you’d guess. Teams and media and public will figure out what this is, hopefully just arm soreness, when the Aiken family wants to tell us.

Comment From Prospect Guy
Hey Kiley! You had Albies and Margot ranked 34 and 35, respectively. I’m curious what you see as Albies ceiling (AVG/HR/SB) vs. Margot. Also, earliest MLB debut for each is 2018?

Kiley McDaniel: SB is hard to call as that’s more a choice than a direct math problem from raw speed. That said, at these two links, I grade all the tools and then at these next two links I break down in more depth along with their projected path/time to the big leagues

http://www.fangraphs.com/st…
http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Adam
What would be a realistic expectation for what Rodon can do as a ML starter this year?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d expect #4 starter this year, which is roughly league average or 2 wins over a full season. Still needs to shore up FB command/delivery and his velo has been all over the place the last few years

Comment From Timmy
When can we expect updated Draft rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: Once the last 5 prospects lists are done, probably in the next 7-10 days. That and another July 2 article will be the next two things.

Comment From @outfieldgrass24
Hi Kiley, you are neat. Question: I spent some time observing D-backs prospects last week and came away concerned with OFs Marcus Wilson and Francis Martinez. Both have long swings with a lot of moving parts, but both are young. How much improvement can realistically be made? Is there enough developmental time to think these get completely reworked. I’ll take your comment off-air. Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: Martinez is still fresh from the DSL and is power type RF, so that is to be expected and there’s time. Wilson should be a little more advanced, so he’s a bit of a disappointment at the plate so far, but he’s also got easy plus speed and a CF profile, so there’s still a shot he figures it out enough to matter.

Comment From Hugo Z
Is there enough of a sample size now to create some kind of equivalency formula for performance in mlb vs. serie nacional?

Kiley McDaniel: Well at least a couple of these guys added a bunch of muscle after they left, so the old stats don’t really tell us much. Some people do Cuban league translations, but most pitchers sit in the 80’s with funk/deception/command, so the game is still a bit different. It doesn’t perfectly map to a minor league here and we know that those translations are already hit and miss.

Comment From JC
When do we see Albert Almora, Archie Bradley, and Lucas Giolito in the majors? Ceilings on them?

Comment From JC
How good is Brandon Drury?

Comment From JC
Does Brian Goodwin have value anymore?

Kiley McDaniel: You guys are all in luck! I’ve written a ridiculous amount, including all the details you’re looking for at the “Evaluating the Prospects” linked articles below their names, available at these links:

Almora: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…
Bradley: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…
Giolito: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Drury: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Goodwin: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Dave
Do you have any updated thoughts on Courtney Hawkins – small sample size but he had a big spring. What do you think his ETA is? Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts need to see more than him hitting some deep flies off pitchers working on stuff in ST to think anything has changed here.

Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores
I have seen your previous rankings for the upcoming draft. What are your thoughts on Bergmann and Swanson at this point of the Spring?

Kiley McDaniel: Bregman has held his mid 1st round spot and I think he’s got a better chance to play SS than most. Swanson has risen and probably doesn’t get out of the top 5-7 picks.

Comment From Jared
When’s your first mock draft drop?

Kiley McDaniel: Sometime in May. Kinda dumb to do it before that, since teams barely know what they’re doing in April, so it would be stupid for me to act like I can guess what they’re going to do. If you want to superimpose my rankings on the draft order, then move a couple names around a few spots, that’s about as good as I’d do with a mock at any earlier point.

Comment From @outfieldgrass24
Any thoughts on D-backs righty Yoan Lopez? Looked good in the start I caught (not behind the plate) against the Indians 10 days ago. Had four pitches working and has remained in big league camp after Shipley and Blair were reassigned. Does he go to AA? Has his ceiling changed upon review?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s likely because they just want the big league staff to get a longer look at the new guy. He could go anywhere from Lo-A to AA to start the season, with Hi-A making the most sense, but also being crazy hitter-friendly, so maybe not the best choice.

Comment From Sean
How does Brandon Drury look defensively at 2B? I can’t find a true report on him there.

Kiley McDaniel: Passable, though this is the team that thinks Peter O’Brien can catch and Yasmany Tomas can play third base, so they probably think he’s a gold glover

Comment From RotoLando
Obligitory request for Hector Olivera update.

Kiley McDaniel: I tweeted my last update yesterday. Teams a little turned off by demands and more of the same with new reps, dragged out process, though that’s kinda to be expected from a guy that should only get one big deal in a market with few comparables to go off of.

Comment From not joey bats
please rank severino, gray and stephenson. also, what are the chances gray breaks camp with the rocks now that chacin has been released?

Kiley McDaniel: I ranked them 25, 26 and 28 here, so they’re basically all the same in that context.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Gray has a shot now, but I’d think he still gets some AAA time.

Comment From Mikey
As much as I want Osuna to break camp with the Jays, for his best development as a starter, he should probably be sent to the double-A rotation right?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, maybe Hi-A.

Comment From Shawn
The Dodgers minor league signing of the Cuban pitcher…is there a reason other teams are not pursuing that option since it does not count against the international bonus pool? I can understand the big cuban names wanting the major league deal, but its an alternate way to get talent in a team’s system.

Kiley McDaniel: It isn’t a market inefficiency, if that’s what you mean. If Odrisamer Despaigne was declared a free agent today, only a few teams have money and space and the inclination to sign him and he’s a proven big leaguer. Fernandez is the guy LA signed and his velo randomly ticked up as a 6’1, no projection guy in his mid-20’s and we’re guessing he might be as good as Despaigne. LA needs a pitcher, LA has money, LA gets him. Other teams can’t do that.

Comment From Danny
What are you expectations for Domingo Acevedo for the Yankees this year? How does he compare to, the admittedly younger, Yadier Alvarez?

Kiley McDaniel: Completely different guys. Alvarez is a skinny 6’4 with three pitches and starter look long-term. Acevedo is 6’7/240 with the same to more fastball, similar changeup, but the delivery and breaking ball are well behind, so he looks like a reliever.

Comment From Erix
Who do you prefer between Travis & Refsnyder?

Kiley McDaniel: Ranked in same area of the top 200, same stage of development, similar tools. Hard to have a strong preference there.

Comment From The Bronx Empire
How common is it for a team to redraft a college junior that they drafted in HS? For example, I’m wondering how likely it is that the Yankees would redraft DJ Stewart. BTW, what’s your thought on his draft stock right now? I heard he’s been hitting for some power this Spring.

Kiley McDaniel: Usually not an issue to do that, unless things got contentious the first time. Stewart is advanced plate discipline, solid bat, 55 power, LF fit. Poor man’s Conforto but probably still 1st rounder.

Comment From Horatio
Have you seen Dariel Alvarez play? Do you like his ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Much more on him at the links here: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

I like the tools, but he’s older and needs to perform. Probably a backup OF.

Comment From Cody
You mentioned about a month ago that you were going to see Blake Hickman from Iowa, is he a top 5 round draft guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Ended up calling an audible and going to another game. In that 3rd-5th round range. Big, athletic kid with electric fastball, decent changeup, but trouble with breaking ball, so there’s a starter/reliever question.

Comment From FredBird
I saw DJ Peterson play a couple of games at 3B this spring, and he looked terrible. He looks like a 1B all the way. What say ye?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say he’s better than terrible, but he’s ending up at 1B eventually.

Comment From Mindi Cohn
Lucious Fox – more than just a great name? took him with last pick in dynasty auction this wknd…

Kiley McDaniel: Chance to get seven figures if he’s cleared as an int’l player. MLB still hasn’t ruled. sandwich to 2nd round in draft if you toss him in there, so probably gets more as int’l player.

Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores
Who are the top 3 college arms as of right now? The performances may have changed these rankings

Kiley McDaniel: Tate, Matuella and Bickford if you include JC, probably Buehler if you don’t.

Comment From Sean
Yadier Alvarez update? Will he get that waiver and sign pre-July 2? Most likely landing spot?

Kiley McDaniel: MLB is taking their time on that as well, but I bet he waits until after July 2 to sign even if he gets the waiver. I would look for Dodgers to go big on him, but I’m hearing some teams with J2 commitments are also looking hard at him, so they’d also prefer he wait.

Comment From Danny
Have you received indication from the Yankees that Mateo is starting in Low A or is that your guess based on how he did in instructs? Only has 15 games in the GCL.

Kiley McDaniel: They expected him to go there, but hadn’t decided yet, as of a month ago or so

Comment From mtsw
Is this service time thing that’s gonna keep Kris Bryant in AAA for a couple weeks actually a priority in the next CBA negotiations? Gets a lot of media attention but seems to effect like 2-3 guys per year max.

Kiley McDaniel: Agreed and to create the rules to incentive teams correctly would be somewhat complicated and have all kinds of unintended consequences, like most rules MLB makes. So either they do nothing or screw it up and then try to fix it later.

Comment From 2 legit
What is it going to take for Ryan Cordell to get on the map? Word is the Rangers are moving him to SS and he could start the year in AA. If he keeps hitting he seems like a big breakout candidate.

Kiley McDaniel: 6’4/205 is pretty big for a shortstop and I hadn’t heard of him playing there in college, so that would be a bit surprising. Sent an email to one of their guys just now so we’ll see if he answers quickly enough that I can post the answer here.

Comment From The Bronx Empire
RE: Aiken. How long can a kid play at IMG. Will he have to transfer to a JUCO if he doesn’t like his draft position this yr and wants to be eligible next year?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep

Comment From a REAL scout
Do you have any links where I could learn about #scouting?

Kiley McDaniel: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Check out “Scouting Explained” links at the top of this page for a good start

Comment From Mark
Kiley, have you heard anything on Lewis Thorpe? Elbow pain after a UCL sprain last year, still hopeful he won’t need TJ. Is all hope lost?

Kiley McDaniel: Generally, all hope isn’t lost for you when some kid hurts his elbow. Chin up, baseball fans, it’s just a game!

Comment From MattK
Does Miguel Castro look the same as last year or has he improved a lot?

Kiley McDaniel: Was really good down the stretch and in instructs last year, just was under the radar and is continuing that.

Comment From Socrates
Given the injuries to the otherwise crowded Oakland outfield, does speedy outfielder Billy Burns — who leads Spring Training in hits, runs and triples — have a chance of making the A’s Opening Day roster?

Kiley McDaniel: I guess so. Not a whole lot other than speed there, but easy to see how he can contribute.

Comment From John
Do you think Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham will be able to provide good depth for Pittsburgh this year? I think starting pitching depth is by far that team’s biggest weakness, until those two are ready.

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t count on MLB contributions from Taillon this year; can sometimes take some time to get all the way back. Kingham is the depth guy and he’s close to ready.

Comment From Splat
If Devon Travis gets a chance, do you think he can hold the 2B job all year?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure. Especially since Izturis kinda sucks now

Comment From Evan
Enough on-air March Madness talk about Pat Connaughton’s 98mph fastball! I get it, we all bow to his talents. However in all reality what are his options? Can he and his camp renegotiate a new bonus to sign him out of NBA?

Kiley McDaniel: He has his baseball deal. He either goes to the NBA after the season (sounds like a fringy chance of that) or goes to MLB full-time.

Comment From soaktherich
Great work as always, Kiley but I have a question about the utility of your FV grades. Say I have one guy with 70 FV. You have two guys with 65 FV, four with 60, six with 55, and eight with 50 FV. Going strictly by FV and disregarding positions and intangibles, what combination of your guys is worth trading for my 70 FV guy? And wouldn’t it be nice to come up with a future value metric that makes it easier to compare prospects for trades? Isn’t that what FV is for? Maybe something like Jimmy Johnson’s NFL Draft Pick value chart…

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve been asking this questions for awhile and we’ve put the nerds on the case. By next off-season’s list process, we should have answer. The short version is that this is something that, even with specific players, execs disagree on often and it differs team-to-team for strategy/payroll/risk inclinations, etc.

Comment From Wannabe Scout
Seth Beer is my favorite player in the 2016 c

Kiley McDaniel: He’s good, but he’s 2015-aged and a corner guy without massive power, so don’t go too crazy

Comment From Phillies113
Kiley, what’s your least favorite thing about being a scout?

Kiley McDaniel: All the groupies

Comment From College Baseball
Where do you think Vandy LHP Phil Pfeifer goes in the draft? Lefty up to 94 with great change and pretty good curveball sounds like a good combination to me

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him a few days ago. 91-94, 50 CB, ok CH he didn’t throw much. Middle relief guy, 5th-7th round off that look, probably stays for senior year, but may someone takes him higher and tries to start him.

Comment From Common Sense
In your Brewers list you stated that Gilbert Lara had been outstanding in instructs. Do you have any info on others who have also stood out (surely at least one guy from the Yankees J2 crop)?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d just CTRL+F “instructs” each team prospect list, because there’s a few on each one, including the Yankees. Here’s the most recent list, with links to all of them http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Chet
I took Carlos Rodon over Giolito in my dynasty draft last night. Did I make a big mistake?

Kiley McDaniel: ALL HOPE IS LOST

Comment From MMZ
Have you watched Kang in ST yet? If so, what are your impressions? Does he have defensive chops for SS?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t seen him play SS, heard it’s fringy

Comment From Hipster Beard
Do you prefer to scout pitcher or positional prospects? Also, do you prefer to scout MiL guys, college, HS, or J2?

Kiley McDaniel: Pitchers are easiest because you get to see everything all at once. I think I like HS the most because there’s some feel to play in games but it takes the most scouting since they’re the furthest away. J2 kids don’t play in games and might grow 6 inches, so that’s more crapshoot than science or art.

Comment From Chet
Alex Meyer, is he the Twins 4/5 starter or an elite closer for them going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: I tend to think closer, but they’re making certain he can’t start for them. The length to the frame is what’s creating all the command/delivery issues, but also helps create the ridiculous stuff

More here: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Roger
Is the difference between Tim Anderson and Alen Hanson largely that Hanson has experienced failure at AA that Anderson has yet to have time to experience? I know many are excited that Anderson has succeeded as much as he has with no organized ball before age 16, but by the time that a player reaches high A and AA does it really matter that he wasn’t facing straight, mediocre velocity at ages 10-15?

Kiley McDaniel: Well they aren’t the same type of player in general. Hanson is a smaller, SS/2B fit, Anderson is a bigger, crazy toolsy SS type. There’s something to what you’re saying, but there needs to be 3-5 full years of MILB to supersede that.

Comment From Basebull
Don’t know how measurable this is, but have there been any studies on whether it’s easier to teach a pitching prospect to throw a major league changeup or a breaking pitch? Totally anecdotal, but it seems like I see a lot of front offices pour a lot of time into (unsuccessfully) teaching FB/Slider prospects a third pitch, whereas prospects who were drafted with present plus changeups require less developmental effort.

Kiley McDaniel: Completely player-specific, so broad study wouldn’t matter much. Guys can/can’t throw CH or breaking ball, innately, for the most part.

Comment From Guest
I know the hit tool is why he was switched to an OF spot for a quicker path to MLB, but could Alex Jackson have stuck at Catcher?,

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe, but it would’ve taken 2-4 years longer than his bat would’ve taken, so the point is moot since it isn’t realistic.

Comment From Hulk
I saw you tweet about Dakota Chalmers any way he moves into the top 10?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably not, but projectable HS arms can kinda do anything, especially in a weak draft.

Comment From Mac
How close Gilbert Lara to 50 FV and what’s his upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Very close. .270, 25-30 homers at 3B but still a wide range of possibilities

Comment From Guest
So I’ve heard a lot of good things coming out of spring training about Lewis Brinson. Is this the year he starts to actualize the tools and shoots up lists?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t know!

Comment From xavier
Is Bradley Zimmer a middle-of-the-order bat for you?

Kiley McDaniel: Very Christian Yelich like, which is more of a 3 hole type

Comment From Colby
Would you ever be open to doing something like a scouting retrospective on former big name prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: I would do it a lot if I had scouted them, but could probably pull something together on most guys. I feel like people would rather look forward with the prospect stuff and I have a pretty wide scope, so I can’t do everything.

Comment From Guest
Have you heard what is the hold up with Dian Toscano not being able to enter the US?

Kiley McDaniel: Paperwork. Happens for multiple players every spring. All hope is not lost!

Comment From Roger
As a Greenville, SC resident, how long do I have to see Moncada playing in my hometown? late April – early May the most certain window?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably a little longer than that, but not much more. I’ll be there early on.

Comment From Isaiah
Hey Kiley, what are your thoughts on Harrison Bader from Florida? I played against him in middle/high school, so I’d love to hear what you think he projects as/how good he is as a prospect.

Kiley McDaniel: Probably 2nd round, maybe 3rd or sandwich. Chance to play CF tho he doesn’t at UF and he has 55 raw power and is hitting now, but the swing is a little uphill

Comment From neal
do you think we’ll ever see a change in the CBA that allows for draft picks to be traded

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Comment From Pessimist
How does Kris Bryant compare to our high draft pick other power plant with contact issues…..Pedro Alvarez?

Kiley McDaniel: They have literally nothing in common other than having power and coming up as a 3rd baseman

Comment From STiVo
Is Patrick Connaughton (Notre Dame) more of a basketball prospect or baseball prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Better at baseball. Chance to be good big leaguer and I’m told he’s a fringy bench guy at best in the NBA. That’s right I’m multi-sport now!

Comment From John
Is there a better name than Arquimedes Euclides Caminero? HIS DAD PICKED HIS NAME OUT OF AN ALGEBRA TEXTBOOK

Kiley McDaniel: Alright that’s all, I’m off to do more writing