Archive for May, 2015

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/18/15

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Live from Szymborskiville, SZ, it’s the Dan Szymborski News Hour! Sitting in for Dan Szymborski is Dan Szymborski, featuring Dan Szymborski and on sports, Dan Szymborski. Also maybe a cat.

11:59
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12:00
Dan Szymborski: But first off, we start off with an unrelated brawl between presidents.

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12:01
Comment From hscer
6’4″ 210 vs. 5’10” 172, how is that even a contest

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Giancarlo Stanton and the At-Bat After

Did you see Giancarlo Stanton’s homer that went out of Dodger Stadium? Stanton hit and the Dodger fans went “OOOOHHH!” and then 467 feet later, when they saw it go out, they went “OOOOHHH!” again. The Marlins color guy punctuated the moment by saying, “You don’t see that every night!” which indeed is true but maybe undersells it a bit. I mean I’d go so far as to say you don’t see that even every other night! In 4,000 lifetimes you and I could never do that, but Stanton did it in this one. Amazing.

Less amazing but more pertinent to this article is what kind of effect that has on the pitcher. As a former high-school pitcher (second-team all district, baby!) I’ve given up a homer or two and, in my very limited experience, when you face that guy again one of two things happens. The first is you challenge him again because he can’t hit your best stuff and also you’re an idiot. The second is you stay the heck away from throwing him the pitch he crushed in the first at-bat and probably stay the heck away from throwing him anything hittable in general. But that’s me in high school. Are major-league pitchers like that? At least one is!

Mike Bolsinger was the starting pitcher for the Dodgers last Tuesday. It was his 86 mph cutter at the top of the strike zone that Stanton hit so hard it briefly turned the fans of Dodger Stadium from Dodger fans into Marlins fans. An inspection of the relevant at-bat reveals that Bolsinger missed his location on both pitches he threw Stanton. The first cutter was supposed to be low and away but was up at the top of the strike zone. He was lucky Stanton missed it. The next one was supposed to be belt-high inside (there was nobody on base so I’m going by where the catcher set up). Bolsinger got the height right but left the pitch just a bit further over the plate than he probably wanted, a few inches which wound up endangering the well-being of anyone walking outside the left field area of Dodger Stadium.

So how did Bolsinger react to facing Stanton a second time? So this is interesting! Bolsinger threw Stanton six straight curveballs! Common perception is that you don’t want to throw too many of the same kind of pitch consecutively for fear the batter will hone in on the specific movement of the pitch. Mike Bolsinger may have many fears — groundhogs and people who don’t use coasters potentially among them — but what he definitely isn’t afraid of is throwing the same pitch twice.

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, May 18, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Chicago AL | 20:10 ET
Kluber (52.2 IP, 66 xFIP-) vs. Sale (35.1 IP, 87 xFIP-)
As the reader is likely aware, Cleveland right-hander Corey Kluber recorded 18 strikeouts in his most recent start. With regard to the historical significance of that performance and also by what means Kluber made it possible, dauntless polymath Owen Watson has supplied all relevant information. In this week’s edition of the Sunday Notes, David Laurila addresses another matter relevant to Kluber, paraphrased here: on the 30 occasions on which a pitcher has recorded 18-plus strikeouts in a single game, those same pitchers have averaged 7.4 strikeouts in their respective subsequent outings. Readers who are so motivated might consider choosing either the over or under on that particular figure and then compelling a friend or awkward acquaintance to select the opposite.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Assessing a Potential Barry Bonds Grievance

Barry Bonds last played in a major league game in 2007. Eight years later, he is now reportedly preparing to file a grievance against Major League Baseball, contending that MLB and its teams improperly colluded to prematurely drive him from the game.

As you may recall, back in 2007 Bonds hit an impressive .276/.480/.565 during his age-43 season, all while setting MLB’s all-time career home run record by hitting his 756th career HR in August. And although Bonds was projected to post a .380 wOBA for the 2008 season, he nevertheless went unsigned that off-season, effectively ending his major league career. This despite the fact that he had even gone so far as to offer to play for the league minimum salary (set at the time at $390,000 per year).

These relatively suspicious circumstances caused many to speculate that MLB’s teams conspired together to drive Bonds from the game. Indeed, both Bonds’ agent (Jeff Borris) and the Major League Baseball Players Association expressed concern at the time that MLB clubs had jointly agreed not to sign Bonds, with the MLBPA announcing after the 2008 season that it had found evidence of improper collusion. Despite all of this, however, Bonds and the union ultimately decided at the time not to officially charge MLB’s franchises with collusion, instead reaching an agreement with MLB to postpone any grievance against the league until Bonds had resolved his then-pending criminal charges relating to his alleged perjury and obstruction of justice during the federal BALCO investigation.

Fast-forward to last month, when the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals reversed Bonds’ criminal conviction for obstruction of justice. With Bonds’ criminal troubles now all but behind him – technically, prosecutors are still considering whether to file a long-shot, last-ditch appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court – he is now once again returning his attention to potentially filing a grievance against MLB. So does Bonds has any chance of winning a case against the league, and if so, what might he stand to gain from charging its teams with collusion?

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The Aroldis Chapman of the Batter’s Box

Aroldis Chapman was a major-league rookie in 2010, but it took no time at all for him to make a name for himself. Joel Zumaya had re-introduced the population to consistent triple digits, but Chapman pushed the limits to the extreme. In his 11th-ever outing, Chapman took the mound in San Diego, and the first pitch he threw came in at 101.5 miles per hour. Then he broke 100 again, then he broke 100 again. Then he did it again, then he did it again. Chapman threw 25 pitches on the night, and the slowest of them was an even 100. That fact was one highlight. The other highlight was one individual pitch he threw to Tony Gwynn Jr. With the count 1-and-2, Chapman missed just inside at 105.1. The enemy crowd came to life as soon as the scoreboard flashed the reading.

Last week, the Marlins took on the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Giancarlo Stanton was granted the opportunity to face Mike Bolsinger, and in an 0-and-1 count in the top of the first, Bolsinger left a fastball over the middle of the plate. Stanton swung, and connected, and the next thing the baseball knew, it was somewhere in one of the parking lots. Stanton hit a ball literally out of the stadium, and as he rounded the bases and approached home plate, he was given something of a standing ovation by the fans who just watched their team fall behind.

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Effectively Wild Episode 679: The Barry Bonds Collusion Case

Ben and Sam banter about Bryce Harper, then talk about what Barry Bonds could have contributed to or cost a baseball team in 2008.


NERD Game Scores for Sunday, May 17, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York NL | 13:10 ET
Peralta (45.0 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Syndergaard (5.1 IP, 128 xFIP-)
Young Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard’s major-league debut wasn’t a rousing success, necessarily, in terms either of run prevention or defense-independent numbers. It also wasn’t a complete failure by those standards, either, though. And more relevant to the reader searching for maximum pleasure this afternoon is that the giant Nord exhibited the repertoire which has earned him considerable praise from scouting types, sitting at 97 mph with his fastball and throwing a curveball capable of provoking considerable duress for opposing hitters.

This curveball, specifically:

NS Curve 3

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio or New York NL Television.

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Sunday Notes: Archer & Ono, De Leon, Medeiros, more

The lead article in this week’s column is a little off the wall. Indirectly, it celebrates Yoko Ono: One Woman Show, 1960-1971, which opens today at New York’s Museum of Modern Art.

Chris Archer was unfamiliar with Ono when I approached him with this idea. That didn’t matter, because the 26-year-old Tampa Bay Rays pitcher is among the most thoughtful players in the game. The subject matter was in his cerebral sweet spot.

For those of you unfamiliar with Ono, she is more than an avant-garde artist. She is also a legendary singer-songwriter, and was married to the late John Lennon. One of her compositions is “Beautiful Boys,” which appeared on their album Double Fantasy. What follows is lyrics from the song (in italics), followed by Archer’s interpretation of them.

You’re a beautiful boy with all your little toys
Your eyes have seen the world, though you’re only four years old
And your tears are streaming even when you’re smiling
Please never be afraid to cry.
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NERD Game Scores for Saturday, May 16, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at San Diego | 20:40 ET
Scherzer (49.2 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Cashner (44.0 IP, 87 xFIP-)
Over the first seven starts of his 2015 season, Washington right-hander Max Scherzer has produced roughly the same strikeout rate that he recorded over his three most recent years in Detroit while also somehow halving his walk rate. Neil Weinberg examined some potential explanations for this development on Friday for the electronic pages. As one might expect, it’s some combination of irresponsible and impossible to reach any firm conclusions on the matter. Here’re two notable and possibly related developments, however: Scherzer is (a) throwing his fastball more often and also (b) inducing more swings at pitches out of the zone. The reader is invited to look for evidence of these trends during Scherzer’s start this evening. Also, because it’s a Saturday in late May, the reader is also probably invited to a graduation party for a relative or family friend.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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The Best of FanGraphs: May 11-15, 2015

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.

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