Carlos Gonzalez is slumping. That isn’t news to you, unless you don’t really pay that much attention to the Colorado Rockies. Even then, it still might not be news to you. Gonzalez, who from 2010-2013 hit 108 homers (tied for 18th-best in the game), and posted a .245 ISO (ninth-best) and 103.4 Off (13th-best), is knee deep in a slump that seemingly has no end. If true, the question then becomes what do the Rockies do with him, because it might be impossible to trade him.

First, let’s see if we can figure out what exactly the issues are. Let’s begin with batted ball distance. Jeff Zimmerman has set up his handy batted ball distance search over at Baseball Heat Maps, and here we see that for the first five years of Gonzalez’s time with the Rockies, his was fairly consistent. He was right around 300 feet each season, with an overall average of 309.277′. Last year, that dropped quite a bit, down to 295.891′, and this season he is at 280.565. That’s nearly a 30 foot drop over the span of two seasons. Perhaps not predictive of how he will fare for the remainder of 2015, but it’s certainly not a great sign.

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Devised originally in response to a challhenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Gray (43.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Walker (22.2 IP, 120 xFIP-)
Seattle right-hander Taijuan Walker hasn’t provided much in the way of performance this season. The ERA is unsightly (as exhibited by the 222 ERA-), nor are the fielding-independent numbers distinguished for their world-famous sightliness, at this point (as exhibited by the 138 FIP- and 120 xFIP-). The projections suggest, however, that Walker will improve on all those numbers. And in terms of aesthetics, he offers the following collection of charms: considerable youth, plus velocity, and enough command not to render it all moot. Also, he works at a pace (19.5 seconds between pitches) nearly a standard deviation faster than the average starter.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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I wrote yesterday about the uncertainty surrounding the #1 overall pick, but that doesn’t keep scouts from trying to figure out who will go in the subsequent picks. It’s way too early to have any real idea what’s going to happen beyond the top 10-15 picks, but the buzz is growing in the scouting community about how things will play out and you people are sustained by lists, predictions and mock drafts. You’re welcome.

I’d bet it’s more telling on draft day to make judgments using the buzz and all the names I mention, rather than the one name I project to be picked, but you guys already don’t read the introduction, so I’ll shut up. For reports, video and more on these players, check out my latest 2015 MLB Draft rankings, or, if your team doesn’t pick high this year, look ahead with my 2016 & 2017 MLB Draft rankings.

UPDATE 5/11/15: Notes from this weekend’s college games: Dillon Tate was solid in front of GM’s from Arizona, Houston and Colorado. Dansby Swanson was even better, in front of decision makers from all the top teams, including Houston, who may still be debating whether they’d take Swanson or Rodgers if given the choice (Rodgers’ season is over). Carson Fulmer did what he usually does and probably has a home from picks 7-17 depending on how things fall on draft day, with an evaluation similar to Marcus Stroman and Sonny Gray as previous undersized righties with stellar track records and plus stuff.

Andrew Benintendi went nuts at the plate again (I’ll see him and Fulmer this weekend). And, finally, Jon Harris was excellent, rebounding from a not-so-great start, so, at this point, I would make Harris the 9th pick to the Cubs and slide Trenton Clark down a few picks, but still comfortably in the top 20. I also updated the 2016 MLB Draft Rankings as a few top prospects came off the DL and impressed, further strengthening the top of that draft, which is far and away better than this year’s draft.

1. Diamondbacks – Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
I wrote about this more in depth yesterday, where I wrote it’s down to CF Garrett Whitley, C Tyler Stephenson and CF Daz Cameron with some chance RHP Dillon Tate is still in the mix and SS Dansby Swanson possibly involved. After writing that, I heard that Arizona is definitely considering those prep players, but teams don’t think they’ll pull the trigger on a way-below-slot prep option and they are leaning college, with Tate and Swanson the targets and SS Alex Bregman also getting some consideration as a long shot.

I’ve heard Arizona wants a hitter here and GM Dave Stewart was in to see Vanderbilt last night. I had heard they were laying in the weeds on Swanson, so, for now, I’ll go with Swanson here. To be clear, Arizona hasn’t made any decisions yet, so this group could still grow or they could change course. One scouting director told me yesterday when asked what he thought Arizona would do that “it sounds like they are going to do something crazy.” Until a few hours before this published, I had Arizona taking Whitley, so this is still very much in flux. There’s also some thought that Tate or Swanson were the targets all along and the rumors of cut-rate high school options have just been a ploy to get the price down–you can pick your own theory at this point.

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Look at James Shields‘ stats this year and you might get a David Wooderson vibe. He keeps getting older and his stats stay the same. This year, the 33-year-old is even at career highs in ways that tend to become meaningful quickly. Some of it is about staying the same, sure, but there have been a few wrinkles along the way.

One thing that hasn’t changed for Shields is his dedication to the arm and shoulder exercises that he learned in Tampa that have stuck with him to this day. He admits, like Jesse Hahn, that other teams have developed similar routines by now. “I just grew up with that organization,” Shields pointed out. “I was there in 2000, so I watched it evolve into the type of arm exercise program they have there now, and they’re very thorough and they do a great job.” Shields leads the league in games started since his first full year in the league. He’s second in innings since 2007, too.

He also still throws that same old changeup. The catch phrase is that it’s the best right-handed changeup in the game, despite evidence that it’s not any more. A bigger velocity gap is good for whiffs on the change, but his keeps getting harder.

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Adam Warren is quietly emerging as a reliable member of the Yankees’ rotation. The 27-year-old right-hander hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s pitched well enough for his team to have won four of his five starts. He was credited with two of those wins, and allowed just one earned run in his lone loss.

Warren worked out of the New York bullpen in 2013 and 2014, but his resume is that of a successful starter. He went 32-4 in four seasons at the University of North Carolina, and his ERA in 90 minor-league starts was 3.11. A fourth-round pick in the 2009 draft, Warren mixes and matches two- and four-seam fastballs, a slider, a curveball, and a change-up.

Warren, who will make his sixth start of the season tonight, talked about his evolution as a pitcher, and his approach on the mound, earlier this week.

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Warren on his development: “I’ve had the same pitches since I signed, but I’ve tightened them up. My change-up has gotten a lot better, and my slider has gotten a lot better. I have more feel with every pitch, and I can throw any pitch in any count. One of my strengths is that unpredictability of being able to throw any of them at any time. I’ve just gotten a little sharper. My mechanics, for the most part, have stayed the same. It’s just learning how to maybe tweak a grip, or getting more out in front with a pitch – just getting a feel for things. I’ve had a lot of good coaches help me with that.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam talk to Providence Journal Red Sox beat writer Brian MacPherson about the Red Sox rotation and the firing of Juan Nieves.

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There’s nothing real surprising about what just happened. Pitching coach Juan Nieves was fired by the Red Sox, the organization citing the under-performance by the starting rotation. Said rotation has been under the microscope since the team went through the offseason without acquiring a front-line ace, and the ERA at this point is terrible. When ERAs are terrible, and when they’re terrible in higher-pressure situations, heads roll, and they frequently belong to pitching coaches. Or, they frequently belonged to pitching coaches. Anyway.

The news has primarily drawn two responses, related to one another. One is that, well, someone had to pay for the early-season disaster. It’s called accountability. Two, Nieves is being scapegoated. It’s not his fault the Red Sox never got around to adding an ace. Ben Cherington is just getting the performance he deserved. Absolutely, it’s true that Nieves isn’t to blame for the lack of a higher-profile transaction. It’s not his fault Jon Lester’s in Chicago. But it wouldn’t be fair to put this on the front office, either. Blame gets spread around. Hell, maybe there’s no one to blame at all.

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Before beginning in earnest, it’s essential or nearly essential for the reader to know that this post for FanGraphs.com on the internet relies on an improbable set of assumptions. One of those assumptions is this: that you (the reader) are a member of a major-league front office. Another is this: that you’ve solicited me, the author — a person who lives in rural New Hampshire and possesses only a basic reading-level command of Spanish — that you’ve solicited me to recommend some Mexican League players who might find some success in the majors. A third assumption is this: that you’re entirely comfortable with the knowledge that I’ve seen only a couple of these players in person — and even then it was at a spring-training game in Mexico City’s new facility while consuming a number of tall beers with British illustrator/dipsomaniac Craig Robinson.

Weirder things have probably happened than the scenario I’ve laid out above, but almost all of them have been confined to parties hosted by Silvio Berlusconi. What, then, is the purpose of this post? Mostly just to become acquainted with the most interesting (and generally young) talents in the Mexican League (or LMB).

It’s probably best to address first this question — namely, what sort of talent the LMB has produced in the past that has gone on to success in the American major leagues. The answer, broadly speaking, is that it has produced notable talent. Joakim Soria and Fernando Valenzuela, for example, both pitched in the LMB before ever making an appearance in the majors. Baseball’s current top pitching prospect, Julio Urias, was employed by the Diablos Rojos of Mexico City before that club and the Dodgers reached an agreement for him to move to the latter team. In a lower profile but still relevant instance, Houston acquired two other players from Mexico City: Japhet Amador and Leo Heras. The former was compelled to return to Mexico when his wife became ill, but Heras remains in the Astros system at the Double-A level, where he’s exhibited promising plate discipline and speed. These examples skew decidedly anecdotal, but the idea with them isn’t to supply anything like an exhaustive study, but rather merely to illustrate that a player from the LMB has ever once succeeded in the majors.

Always it’s best to complement any sort of endeavor such as this one with observational evidence. Owing to the author’s geographical constraints and also the paucity of video available for the LMB, however, that’s not really an option. In any case, one can reach some basic assumptions about a player’s talent level by considering certain relevant information and weighting it responsibly.

This sort of information, for example:

Age
Younger players are obviously more likely to improve — or at least not decline. Also, with regard to the LMB, specifically, one finds that the average age is on the older side — nearly 31 for batters and 29 for pitchers. For the purposes of this post, I’ve considered only those players who are 27 or younger.

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After taking a pitch on the hand Friday night, the Red Sox placed Ryan Hanigan on the DL with a broken finger. Hand injuries are always tricky for hitters, and this one appears to be rather serious, as it will require surgery. According to Red Sox skipper John Farrell, Hanigan’s recovery time will be “lengthy,” and he won’t return to action until after the All-Star break. The Red Sox will be without their starting catcher for a while.

Hanigan’s injury leaves the Red Sox thin at catcher. Really thin. Hanigan wasn’t even actually supposed to be Boston’s primary catcher — That distinction was slated to go to Christian Vazquez. However, Vazquez’s season came to an end before just before it started when he suffered an elbow tear in spring training.

To help fill the void behind the plate, the Red Sox called up top prospect Blake Swihart, who placed 9th on our pre-season top 200 list, higher than any other catching prospect. At the time of the call up, the switch-hitting catcher was hitting an empty but solid .338/.392/.382 in Triple-A Pawtucket. Still, despite his solid start, most felt he needed a little more seasoning before he was ready for the show. But the Sox had a gaping hole at catcher, and Swihart was next in line, so here we are. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about Bryce Harper and Mike Trout and dissect several stats about the Astros’ season so far.

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