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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at Los Angeles | 22:10 ET
Teheran (50.2 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (58.1 IP, 60 xFIP-)
With regard to all the sorts of numbers that both (a) become reliable in smaller samples and also (b) most directly inform run prevention, Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw has produced almost an exact replica this year of his monstrous 2014 season. With regard to how many runs he’s actually conceded, however, the differences are unfortunately less subtle.

Regard, by way of illustration, this table:

Strikeout rate, walk rate, ground-ball rate, and also fastball velocity (denoted as FBv): all are rough approximations this year of what they were last. Indeed, the first three of those metrics conspire to produce the very best park-adjusted xFIP among all qualifiers this season so far. Kershaw, however, has conceded both hits (as denoted by BABIP) and home runs (HR/FB) in unusually large quantities — which has led to all the run-allowing. It’s probably premature to describe Kershaw’s misfortunes at this point as “Job-like.” Perhaps they’re more similar to the misfortunes of one who left his wallet at the restaurant and now must go all the way back there to recover it.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Clay Buchholz has the best strikeout and swinging-strike rate of his career! Clay Buchholz has a new changeup grip! Therefore his strikeout rate must be because of his new changeup? Maybe, but it’s not a linear thing. Nothing in baseball ever is.

The Red Sox pitcher did change from a four-seam changeup grip to a two-seam grip — look at Jake Peavy’s versions for a reference point — and the difference has been stark. Read the excellent Brian MacPherson on the subject, and then look at the change in horizontal movement from the changeup.

When Buchholz has thrown his four-seam changeup, it tended to have little side-to-side movement. It instead would mimic the path of his four-seam fastball and then dive straight toward the dirt as it neared the plate. What the two-seam changeup does is mimic the path of a two-seam fastball, fading horizontally at the end of its flight — in on righties, away from lefties.

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The MLB Network’s Brian Kenny wants to “Kill the Win.” As a FanGraphs reader, you’re certainly familiar with – and quite possibly supportive of – his stance. The stat is often misleading, and slowly but surely it’s becoming less of a barometer when assessing an individual pitcher’s performance. But should the win be “killed”? I recently posed that question to nine pitchers, two pitching coaches and a pitcher-turned-broadcaster. Here are their responses:

Chris Archer, Rays: “I don’t know if it should be killed. The emphasis behind it isn’t as great as people make it out to be. I think true baseball gurus, and players and management, know. It’s how a lot of fans may judge someone, but we know there’s not so much behind the importance of (an individual pitcher’s) win.”

Craig Breslow, Red Sox: “I don’t think it’s going anywhere. Unless we’re going to kill every single statistic, then we should spare the win. I don’t think you can make a good argument for killing a statistic for not telling the whole story. You just to have to explain it doesn’t give a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of a pitcher.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about Dan Jennings, then attempt to explain Stephen Strasburg’s perplexing season.

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Troy Tulowitzki has been in the news lately because of his desire to be traded away from Colorado (and then his desire not to be), but less publicized is the fact that he’s also in the midst of one of the least productive offensive stretches of his career. His above average walk/low strikeout plate approach has done a 180 this year, with the Rockies shortstop currently posting a career-low walk rate and career-high strikeout rate. With the trade rumors continuing to swirl, we have to wonder: what’s going on with Tulo?

Since first being promoted to the major leagues in 2006, Tulowitzki has shown one of the best all-around toolsets at the shortstop position: he’s hit for power, he’s walked at an above average rate, and he’s limited his strikeouts. Those abilities, combined with great defense, have made him one of the best players in baseball when healthy. Following another season that hinted at what could be if he was able to stay on the field, his numbers have been less than stellar in 2015. In addition to a conspicuous lack of home run power, other parts of his game have fallen off. To start with, let’s take a look at his career walk and strikeout rates compared to league average, updated with this season’s numbers:

As we can see, a slight uptick in strikeout rate might not be terribly worrisome, given the fact that we only have just over a month and a half of the season under our belt. However, the almost total cratering of Tulowitzki’s walk rate is concerning: after a career built on walking at an above average clip, he now has the 7th-lowest walk rate in the majors among qualified hitters. It’s unusual to see such a drastic decrease in walk rate among an established player, and it requires some attention.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.s

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Chicago NL | 14:20 ET
Roark (20.1 IP, 119 xFIP-) vs. Wada (4.2 IP, 39 xFIP-)
Among pitchers who’ve (a) thrown at least 100 total innings over the last three seasons and also (b) recorded at least half their appearances in a starting capacity — among pitchers who meet both those criteria, Washington right-hander Tanner Roark has produced the fourth-greatest difference between his park-adjusted ERA and xFIP figures. Among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 200 innings and meet the other relevant criteria, Roark ranks second by that same measure. Raising the innings threshold to 250 innings places Roark atop the table — and raising it to 1000 innings eliminates every pitcher from the sample and renders the endeavor wholly meaningless.

A table expressing most of the above in mostly numeric form appears below. (Note that X-E denotes the difference between xFIP- and ERA-).

It’s improbable but not impossible that Roark possesses some collection of skills that will allow him to continue preventing runs at his established levels while also recording fielding-independent numbers at his established levels. As PG Wodehouse’s insouciant aristocrat Psmith advises, however, one ought never to confuse the former (that is, the improbably) with the latter (the impossible).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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Episode 564
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses Nassim Taleb’s black-swan theory with regard to short right-handed pitchers in the amateur draft, how that same theory might apply to position players, and a pair of minor leaguers with unusual (if also promising) profiles.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 14 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at Los Angeles NL | 16:10 ET
Shields (55.1 IP, 74 xFIP-) vs. Frias (24.2 IP, 91 xFIP-)
For those, like the author, who operate under the notion that Dodgers right-hander Carlos Frias — owing to a combination of arm speed and command — that Carlos Frias possesses the tools to develop into an above-average major-league starting pitcher, what this game represents is not an opportunity to wholly confirm or refute that hypothesis, but rather to collect another data point in a series of data points that might ultimately aid in answering that question. For those, like the author, who also aren’t immune to the charms of fermented beverages, it represents an opportunity to collect that data point while consuming same.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Bruce Chen retired on Monday, which makes this a good time to talk about Michael Roth. Chen closed out his career with the Indians, and Roth, a fellow southpaw, signed with Cleveland this past off-season. That’s not their only connection.

A few days before Chen made his announcement, I suggested to the 25-year-old former Angel that he’s similar to the crafty 37-year-old. It turns out I wasn’t the first to do so.

“Bruce told me that after I finished throwing my second bullpen of the year,” explained Roth, who is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Columbus. “He looked at me and said, ‘Wow, we’re exactly the same; we throw exactly the same way.’

“There are things in his repertoire I like to use. He drops down with his fastball, and throws a drop-down slider. He’ll flip his curveball in, 0-0, and I’m throwing my curveball more this year – a slow curveball. I mix and match angles and throw four different pitches, so I really enjoy talking to Bruce about how he approaches hitters.”

Charles Nagy, who took over as the Columbus pitching coach when Carl Willis left for Boston, agreed there are similarities. He also sees differences, one of which is in Roth’s favor. Read the rest of this entry »