Archive for June, 2015

NERD Game Scores for Friday, June 19, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at Washington | 19:05 ET
Burnett (85.2 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Ross (13.0 IP, 65 xFIP-)
There are a number of events on which a pitcher exerts zero influence. The tides, for example. Middle East relations. A wife who, for some reason, insists on preparing dishes with improbable quantities of cilantro despite the fact that it tastes to her spouse like the bitter tears of orphan children. In the face of all these, a pitcher is a helpless and wriggling creature. With regard to those areas over which a pitcher does possess some control, however, Washington right-hander Joe Ross has been nearly flawless over his first two career starts, producing a 12:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13.0 innings while also inducing grounders on over 60% of batted balls against him. What one finds here today is that same Joe Ross scheduled to record his third start — in this case, against a Pittsburgh club whose odds of qualifying for the divisional series are approximately a 50-50 proposition.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Taijuan Walker’s Command, Then and Now

Command is a funny thing. It’s not easy to spot in the numbers. You have to watch a game and see the pitcher consistently miss his spots before you start to understand that even a guy with great walk rates may not have great command. Taijuan Walker does not have good command. He also walked 9.5% of the batters he faced in the minor leagues, a number that isn’t as far off the American League average this year (7.6%) as you might expect.

WalkerCommand
Pretty sure the catcher wanted this fastball low and away.

Over the last four starts, Walker has walked three batters in 29 innings. If you have an opinion regarding Walker’s command, you probably won’t change it over four starts. But Walker is still young enough, and not yet fully formed — perhaps there’s something else he’s done that can help us better understand why command is so hard to quantify. And also how likely it is that Walker can keep up this production.

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Let’s Watch Carlos Correa Do Something Amazing

When you promote someone as young as Carlos Correa, the most you can realistically hope for is that the player’s able to hold his own. Sure, it would be possible for a 20-year-old to become a standout immediately, but just because it’s possible doesn’t mean it’s reasonable to expect. The majors are hard, and rookies aren’t finished products, because the rookies haven’t been in the majors, and the majors are hard. Generally, you look for learning, and you look for glimpses. You look for signs you’ve promoted the player to the appropriate level.

We don’t know what rookie Carlos Correa is going to be. Lots of baseball left to go; lots of adjustments left to be made. This much could be said, though: if a 20-year-old rookie were to become a standout immediately, he might do things like Correa has done. It would be difficult to imagine a more promising start, and underscoring everything, the Astros got a hell of a glimpse of Correa’s talent on Wednesday in Colorado. On Wednesday, Carlos Correa did something amazing. Let’s watch it.

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The Wild, Woolly — and Mediocre — AL, 2015 Edition

In May 2014, I wrote an article within these very pages with basically the same exact title. The calendar has turned to 2015, and the American League is even wilder, woollier, and every bit as mediocre. Recent traditional powers like the the Yankees and Red Sox — and even the Rangers, A’s, and Angels — aren’t what they used to be, and the anticipated next wave, represented by the Mariners and Indians, has been slow to deliver. What we are left with is a morass of clubs, with few clear positive standouts, and few relatively hopeless also-rans. How to make sense of this?

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Effectively Wild Episode 696: Listener Emails: The Hacking, Hanley, and Position Player Pitching Edition

Ben and Sam banter about position players pitching and answer emails about the Cardinals-Astros hacking scandal, Hanley Ramirez, defensive positioning, and more.


Cubs Promote Kyle Schwarber… For Now

It’s raining prospects. Every time I check Twitter, it seems, I catch wind of yet another player who’s been summoned to the majors. The latest player to get the call is Kyle Schwarber, the power-hitting “catcher” in the Cubs organization. Schwarber made his big-league debut on Tuesday night as a pinch-hitter, and struck out in his lone plate appearance. Last night, he made his first major-league start, serving as the Cubs designated hitter. Schwarber made the most of this opportunity by going 4-for-5 with a triple.

Word from the Cubs is that Schwarber’s promotion is only a temporary one. The Cubs play their next five games in American League ballparks, which means they’ll need a designated hitter. The Cubs would be hard-pressed to find a better designated hitter than Schwarber. Although he lacks a real defensive position, he hit .320/.438/.579 in the minors this year. Schwarber’s 192 wRC+ in Double-A is the highest among qualified minor-league batters.

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The Pirates MVP Is… Francisco Cervelli?

Everyone makes mistakes. Some marry people they shouldn’t. Some cheat on their taxes. Some refuse to eat their dinner and find out later I won’t give them dessert and then throw a holy fit that prevents me from starting my article on how Francisco Cervelli is the Pittsburgh Pirates MVP until very late. But I will persevere. Welcome to an article about how Francisco Cervelli is the Pittsburgh Pirates MVP!

In fact, this brief reflection on mistakes is relevant, as the Yankees seem to have made one when they dealt Cervelli to Pittsburgh last November for reliever Justin Wilson. It’s not that Wilson is lousy so much as Cervelli has been fantastic. But let’s consider only mistakes for the moment. The Yankees gave Brian McCann $85 million over five seasons to be their starting catcher before the 2014 season because he was (a) available on the free-agent market and (b) one of the few major-league catchers who’s both a good hitter and good defender. McCann’s defensive reputation was as strong as his hitting, and in addition, he consistently scored high in catcher-framing statistics according both to Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner throughout his career. If anyone is worth $17 million for five seasons in his early and mid-30s that sounds like a good candidate.

But then last season happened. McCann had one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, recording a 92 wRC+, although his pitch-framing skills helped keep him a valuable player. In 2014, he stole 68 strikes and added 10.2 runs via his framing alone, according to Baseball Prospectus. StatCorner says the number is 11.4. Either way that’s a win and a bit more. This season he’s back to hitting again (119 wRC+) but his pitch-framing numbers have taken a nosedive. Perhaps it’s not surprising that McCann would step back a bit in pitch-framing skill as he enters his age-31 season.

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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 6/18/15

11:17
Eno Sarris: let’s start off nice and slow

11:18
Eno Sarris:

12:01
Eno Sarris: I’m here I promise

12:01
Comment From Marcus Banks
OK Go!

12:01
Comment From Marcus Banks
Michael Pineda is the best pitcher in New York City.

12:01
Eno Sarris: I still don’t agree! He’s had a bit more time since surgery, and I like the depth of Harvey’s arsenal better.

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Players’ View: Is Baseball Ready for an Openly Gay Player?

PrideNight
O.co Coliseum prepares for the Athletics’ LGBT Pride Night.

The Athletics had an LGBT Pride event Wednesday night, and the night was peppered with love for many people that haven’t always felt comfortable at the ballpark.

Opera Singer Breanna Sinclaire, the first trans singer accepted into the San Francisco Conservatory of Music’s master’s program according to the San Francisco Chronicle, sang the anthem. According to Major League Baseball, she was also the first trans singer to perform the anthem.

MLB ambassador of inclusion Billy Bean was in the building, and was part of the impetus for the event, as the news of this event came out after he addressed the Athletics in Spring Training.

Sean Doolittle’s partner Eireann Dolan helped improve the event, as she not only offered to buy back tickets from disgruntled ticketholders with a heartfelt and funny letter, but also started a GoFundMe to help pay for even more donated tickets to members of Our Space, AIDS Project East Bay and Frameline, a nonprofit LGBTQ cinema foundation.

It seemed like a good time to ask the ballplayers willing to comment about the issue at hand: is baseball ready for an openly gay player, and what obstacles might they face when it happens? Even with a few “no comments,” the opinions given all had their own unique angle, and showed that even a ready country and sport will not make the first openly gay player’s professional life easy.

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NERD Game Scores for Thursday, June 18, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at Cleveland | 19:10 ET
Hammel (80.0 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (68.2 IP, 70 xFIP-)
It’s a working theory of the author’s, substantiated less by empirical fact than by observation of his own dumb self, that the human mind isn’t particularly adept at integrating a pitcher’s newest, most relevant performances into its understanding of that same pitcher. With regard to this game, for example, an encounter between Jason Hammel and Danny Salazar clearly lacks the prestige of last night’s matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Felix Hernandez — because Hammel has produced mostly average seasons, for example, and Salazar, despite an arm composed wholly of dangerous and beautiful electric current, hasn’t produced a signature season yet. At this moment, however, all relevant information — strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate and velocity — all of it suggests that Hammel and Salazar are the equals of Bumgarner and Hernandez.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago Television.

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