Archive for July, 2015

FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/28/15

5:45
Paul Swydan:

Hi everybody! Jeff is incognito tonight, so it will just be me, and you, and you, and you, and … well all of you!

See you at 9 pm ET. It’s gonna be a good night!

9:03
Paul Swydan: OK guys, well the stupidest replay challenge ever just happened, so it seems like a good time to start chatting!

9:03
Comment From hscer
But I don’t WANNA root for Papelbon!!!

9:03
Paul Swydan: Yes, but do you want to be a pirate?

9:04
Paul Swydan: (that’s a Seinfeld joke, for you kids out there)

9:04
Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
Time to make up for your preseason bold predictions: list 3 BOLD predictions for the trade deadline.

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The Best Get Better: Royals Nab Zobrist from Oakland

Our depth charts haven’t updated to show the details of the trade just yet, and those feed the projections, which feed the playoff odds. And the Royals have the second-best playoff odds in baseball right now at 97.4%.

Soon they will update to reflect that the Royals just went and got the available bat that fits their team best in Ben Zobrist from the Athletics. The cost may end up being high — the Athletics confirmed in a press release that Sean Manea is headed to Oakland, making the Royals’ top prospect the fourth lefty pitcher the team has spent on this year’s chances — but the reward, and the fit, is obvious.

Second base was the Royals’ worst position, and Zobrist can play their second-worst position (Right Field) well, too. Between the two positions, the newcomer is projected to be worth nearly a win and a half for his team. Between Omar Infante and Alex Rios, our projections have them worth around a half-win to the Royals.

But the Royals get better than a win better once you look further into the team dynamics and postseason roster choices.

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Effectively Wild Episode 708: The Cueto and Tulo Trades

Ben and Sam banter about an Elvis Andrus glove toss, an odd triple play, and A-Rod, then discuss the Johnny Cueto and Troy Tulowitzki trades.


Rockies Choose to Embrace Their Future, At Last

There’s no such thing as ideal circumstances under which to trade Troy Tulowitzki. The best-case scenario is that Tulowitzki is both healthy and performing well, and then, you’re still a front office trading one of the most talented players in baseball. And in Colorado, of course, Tulowitzki has been more than just a good player, having been the beloved face of the franchise. Do something like this, and it’s going to hurt, regardless. But it’s been increasingly clear that a separation would be necessary. That both parties needed to move on. The Rockies just couldn’t get Tulowitzki to stay at peak level. So they did what they did, doing about the best they could do at the time, and with Carlos Gonzalez probably following Tulowitzki out the door, this is a watershed. No longer will the Rockies be caught trying to build future success around present-day veterans.

Tulowitzki was no stranger to trade rumors. There was thought he could go a year ago, but after lighting the league on fire, he got injured. The injury questions hung over him during the offseason, making it tricky to find a match, and now that he’s been mostly healthy in 2015, his performance has been uncharacteristically mortal. So the injury questions morphed into performance questions, and the Rockies had to accept that. Your opinion of the trade is dependent on your level of Tulowitzki optimism. Given what he’s capable of being, you could argue the Rockies sold low. Alternatively, you could consider it meaningful that the Rockies had trouble getting the 30-year-old Tulowitzki both healthy and great.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/28/15

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously this is quite late, but I wasn’t planning on having Troy Tulowitzki get traded

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: So I had to finish writing about that before I could start this. But now that’s done! So I’ll be with you just as soon as I’m done tweeting that link and this link

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: OK!

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: By the way, I’ve swapped with Kiley this week because he wasn’t available today, but he will be on Friday.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Back to normal for me, next week

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Projecting the Prospects in the Troy Tulowitzki Trade

While many of you were snuggled up in your beds last night, Alex Anthopoulos and his henchmen were hard at work acquiring Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies. You can read Dave Cameron’s piping hot take on the trade here and Kiley McDaniel’s scouting-oriented contribution on the three pitching prospects going from Toronto to Colorado here. Below, I’ll be taking a data-driven look at those same three prospects, as follow: Miguel Castro, Jeff Hoffman, and Jesus Tinoco.

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NERD Game Scores: Some Consequence in Houston

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles at Houston | 20:10 ET
Wilson (128.0 IP, 103 xFIP-) vs. McHugh (127.0 IP, 100 xFIP-)
The entertainment value provided by a text or performance is typically a direct result of the stakes which face the characters in that same text/performance. For example: while profound in its own way, the portion of a bar mitzvah during which the young man chants his haftorah is typically an exercise in abject boredom. Here one finds a 13-year-old who, rather than awkwardly chanting Hebrew in front of his bubbe, would probably much rather be awkwardly doing something else. Were that same young man, however, to receive electric shocks of increasing intensity for every pronunciation error he made — this would facilitate much greater entertainment for those gathered. Would it be horrifying? Yes. But, as everything everywhere proves, horrifying and compelling are not mutually exclusive.

For the duration of this series, the Angels and Astros will resemble, in no small part, a young boy who, while becoming a man, is also becoming unconscious due to all the aforementioned electric shocks. The clubs are currently separated by a mere game atop the AL West and only a handful of playoff-odds percentage points. The consequences, if not tremendous, at least resemble something approaching tremendous.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

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Scouting the Prospects in the Tulowitzki Trade

Lead Prospect Analyst Kiley McDaniel is currently scouting the East Coast Pro prep showcase in Tampa, Florida. What follows is a collection of scouting reports written by McDaniel concerning the three players traded by Toronto to Colorado in exchange for Troy Tulowitzki — compiled and updated to account both for recent developments and/or likely role with the Rockies.

Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies, FV: 55

In Hoffman’s offseason scouting report, I noted that he was in contention to go #1 overall until his elbow surgery just before the 2014 draft, in which he went ninth overall. He made his first pro appearance this year and started making buzz right away, showing big velocity in a late big-league spring-training appearance, then in extended spring training and in his regular season debut at High-A Dunedin (he was just promoted to Double-A in the last few days). In the video, the first game shown is when I saw Hoffman about a month ago and the second game is when our own Chris King saw his first start for Dunedin about a month before that.

I like to keep all the clips we have of a player in the official video on the FanGraphs YouTube page (now over 1 million views and 1,000 videos in less than a year) for reasons just like this, so we can see the changes over time. Notice from the third game in the video (the summer before he was drafted, in the Cape Cod League) how aggressive Hoffman’s delivery is (and the knockout curve at 3:00) and note that much of that is still there in the second game, his pro debut in Dunedin. Now look at the first game, the most recent one, and notice how much more upright, stiff and generally tall-and-fall his delivery is, rather than attacking the plate.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron on the Looming Deadline

Episode 582
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses multiple implications of Kansas City’s deal for Johnny Cueto and the dollar-per-win value of pitchers at the deadline.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min play time.)

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Troy Tulowitzki, the Blue Jays, and Upgrading Strengths

Here is the story of the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays, presented in two easy graphs.

BlueJaysRPG

BlueJaysRAPG

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