Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Texas | 20:05 ET
McCullers (101.2 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Lewis (184.0 IP, 115 xFIP-)
It’s very possible that Houston both was and also remains a more talented ball club than division rival Texas. What they’ve done over the first three games of this series, however, is lose all of them. The result: a serious decline in the probability of winning that division, as illustrated by the following table.

AL West Division Odds, 2015

Club	Before Series	Now	Diff
Texas	22.0%	58.1%	+36.1%
Houston	73.7%	39.2%	-34.5%

The lesson: talent — and even talent applied earnestly — isn’t sufficient for success. Whether this is reassuring for the reader or disappointing reveals the camp with which he or she most clearly identifies.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

You’re a bright, available general-manager candidate. Not only that, but you’ve also scored a bunch of interviews. Congratulations! There are six teams out there that appear to be looking for a new GM, and you’re going to talk with all of them. Even the Marlins, who are super weird about everything. You know you’re ready. You know you’re prepared, and you feel pretty good about every individual chance. You don’t know how the teams are going to feel about you, but you feel like you should arrange your own priority list. Where would you like to go the most? Where would you like to go the least?

I should mention, you’re extremely flexible. Perhaps you knew that about yourself. It doesn’t really matter the city in which you end up employed. You love the beach, you love beer, you love hiking, and for some reason you love traffic (listening to podcasts?). And besides, you’re so devoted to your potential future job that you don’t anticipate all that much downtime anyhow. You’re either single, or your very understanding partner is like, “sure, anywhere’s good.” You evidently have family all over the place. Varying costs of living? Not on your radar! All you care about is that you make enough, which you will. You are stupidly easy to please. The specific job here is the only thing that matters. It’s the entire basis of the decision.

So, you’re looking at six interviews. Six possible GM positions. Which opening do you find most desirable? It’s not an easy choice, is it? But, make the choice. Make the choice! It’s one of your very favorite things to do, making choices. You make choices in your spare time. Here is a choice, to make.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about one of the worst games of the season, Madison Bumgarner, and an old bet, then talk to Adam J. Morris about the Rangers and Brandon Warne about the Twins.

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

It’s mostly a matter of aesthetics. A little bit of pride, but, for the most part, an out is an out, if you did nothing wrong. Batters make outs most of the time, especially if the batter’s name is Trevor Cahill. The Cubs, presumably, aren’t bothered that Cahill made an out in the fifth inning on Tuesday. They would’ve expected as much, and if anything, they’d be happy about his hitting a line drive. But ultimately, Cahill was thrown out by Gregory Polanco, and he was thrown out at first base, despite his quality contact. Maybe even in part because of his quality contact. Cahill found himself the victim of a 9-3 putout, and though Cahill didn’t make any mistakes, it’s naturally the sort of play that generates attention. It can’t not be dwelt on.

Read the rest of this entry »

Introduction
The Fringe Five has been a weekly regular-season exercise (introduced two Aprils ago) conducted by the author this year with a view to identifying the most compelling of those rookie-eligible minor leaguers excluded from Kiley McDaniel’s preseason top-200 prospect list and also absent from the midseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Keith Law, John Sickels, and McDaniel himself. Every week during the minor-league season, the author submitted the names of five “compelling” minor leaguers, each name attended by a brief summary of that prospect’s most relevant credentials.

Generally speaking, compelling in this context meant that the prospect in question possessed some combination of the following:

1. Notable regressed stats; and

2. The ability to play on the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum; and

3. Youth relative to minor-league level; and

4. A curious biographical or statistical profile.

With minor-league regular seasons having all been completed, the author presents here a summary and discussion of the Fringe Five for 2015.

Read the rest of this entry »

This post is not about Yoenis Cespedes’ amazing run of late for the New York Mets. Not really, anyway. You have probably heard about Cespedes since his trade to the Mets. He is hitting .302/.352/.676 with 17 home runs and a wRC+ of 179 in 193 plate appearances with his new club. Even more amazing, from August 12 through September 14, Cespedes hit .323/.379/.805 with 17 homers and a wRC+ of 220 in 145 plate appearances. During this time the Mets went 22-9 and seized control of the National League East from pre-season, early-season, and even most of late-season favorites Washington Nationals. What Cespedes has done is incredible, but he is not the only major league player to have a great run along these lines.

This post is also not about Cespedes’ MVP candidacy. Matthew Kory did a good job breaking that argument down and discussing whether Cespedes’ time in the American League should be a part of the consideration when discussing MVP. What this post is about is recognizing those performances throughout the season on the hitting side that have been up to par with Cespedes’ great run. Some of the performances are from players on winning teams, some are from non-contenders, many of these runs have been covered by various FanGraphs authors as the runs were happening, but they all deserve recognition for playing incredible baseball for a stretch at least a month long.

We’ll start with the very best players in baseball this season. Looking at the top ten in WAR on the season, we have four players from the American League, five players from the National League, and Cespedes, who has split time with both. First, Cespedes’ line, mentioned above.

Yoenis Cespedes and His Incredible Run

	Dates	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	wRC+	Team W-L
Yoenis Cespedes	8/12-9/14	145	17	.323	.379	.805	220	22-9

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the great things about baseball is that it’s always changing. The changes don’t happen quickly, in most cases, but the game being played today is quite a bit different from the one being played 10 years ago, and the one 10 years before that, and the one 10 years before that. Baseball has eras where no one could hit and eras where even a shortstop could launch 20 homers a year; it has had eras where starters pitched nearly every inning and eras where managers would bring in his specialist to counter the other team’s newly-inserted specialist.

The current era is all about pitching, as the rise of hard-throwers on every roster and an expanding strike zone have made this a great time to throw the ball for a living — so long as you can manage to keep from visiting Dr. Andrews, anyway — and a rough time to try and put up big offensive numbers. This is a drastic change from the style of play that we saw during the Steroid Era, where players used copious amounts of PEDs and offensive rates neared all-time highs. If you’ve been watching baseball for since we entered the 21st century, you’ve seen the game change in pretty dramatic ways, even while it is still the same sport.

Over the last 50 years, one of the most interesting changes has been the rise and fall of the popularity of the stolen base. Aggressive baserunning reached its peak in the 1980s, when teams like the St. Louis Cardinals featured line-ups of slap hitters who could run and field, while stars like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines were also setting the standard for what leadoff hitters should be. But when home run rates surged in the 1990s, stolen bases were de-emphasized; why risk making an out when the next guy up can hit one over the fence?

Now, with the strike zone getting bigger and PED testing getting more sophisticated, offense is back to the levels we saw back in the 1980s, with teams averaging roughly 4.25 runs per game over the last five years. With runs being more scarce, it was thought that perhaps MLB would move back towards 1980s-style players, and we’d see a resurgence in stolen bases once again.

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.

Read the rest of this entry »

As Melvin Upton steps to the plate and readies for the pitch, Buster Posey appraises him. First, he looks at his feet as they dig in. Gradually, his eyes move up Upton’s body, brazenly staring as he takes in information. Down pops the sign as the catcher moves his attention to the pitcher.

It’s not just idle ogling. He’s looking for clues. Which ones?

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Texas | 20:05 ET
Keuchel (206.2 IP, 67 xFIP-) vs. Perez (54.2 IP, 102 xFIP-)
There are arguments you could make, probably, in support of watching a different game tonight besides this one between Houston and Texas, but all of them are likely to get you laughed off the playground. And getting laughed off the playground as a 35-year-old — and actually you weren’t even playing or anything, you were just walking back from the store, okay, so shut up Keenan — is an indignity few should suffer. In either case, following their victory yesterday, the Rangers now lead the division by half a game. But also, despite that lead, the Astros are sill slight favorites to win the division according to this playoff graph available now at the site:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »