NERD Game Scores for Thursday, September 17, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Texas | 20:05 ET
McCullers (101.2 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Lewis (184.0 IP, 115 xFIP-)
It’s very possible that Houston both was and also remains a more talented ball club than division rival Texas. What they’ve done over the first three games of this series, however, is lose all of them. The result: a serious decline in the probability of winning that division, as illustrated by the following table.

AL West Division Odds, 2015

Club	Before Series	Now	Diff
Texas	22.0%	58.1%	+36.1%
Houston	73.7%	39.2%	-34.5%

The lesson: talent — and even talent applied earnestly — isn’t sufficient for success. Whether this is reassuring for the reader or disappointing reveals the camp with which he or she most clearly identifies.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Another Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Baltimore at Tampa Bay, starts at 19:10 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those adjustments here and here.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Kyle Hendricks	CHN	8	5	6	6	6	PIT	Charlie Morton	12:35
Sean Nolin	OAK	0	4	4	4	6	CHA	Jose Quintana	14:10
Jarred Cosart	MIA	4	4	4	4	3	WAS	Tanner Roark	19:05
Chris Tillman	BAL	4	4	4	4	1	TB	Matt Moore	19:10
Yo. Ventura	KC	9	4	6	5	10	CLE	Corey Kluber	19:10
Marco Estrada	TOR	2	8	5	4	4	ATL	Matt Wisler	19:10
Lance McCullers	HOU	8	10	8	9	3	TEX	Colby Lewis	20:05
Hector Santiago	LAA	2	5	5	7	4	MIN	Tommy Milone	20:10
John Lackey	STL	5	6	5	4	5	MIL	Jimmy Nelson	20:10

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.