Archive for September, 2015

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/14/15

11:58
Dan Szymborski: If you die at 1 PM today, you will die knowing that you wasted the last hour of your existence because it’s time for the Dan Szymborski Cavalcade of Mediocrity!

11:59
Comment From Ryan Goins
MEDIOCRITY? THATS MY MIDDLE NAME!!!

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Cruel parents.

11:59
Comment From Walt Jocketty
Hey Danny Boy! Did you see Skip’s gritty home run vs. St. Louis this weekend? Vindication is sweet! EAT CROW STATS BOY

11:59
Dan Szymborski: heh

11:59
Dan Szymborski: It’s a holiday that comes twice a year!

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, September 14, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Texas | 20:05 ET
Kazmir (164.1 IP, 96 xFIP-) vs. Hamels (177.1 IP, 86 xFIP-)
What this game represents is an encounter between the two clubs in all of baseball most closely situated atop their respective division’s standings. Had the pair met a month ago, meanwhile, that’s not at all what this game would have represented — owing, that is, to how Texas was five games behind Houston and the Los Angeles Angels were also in second place. What one learns is that circumstances can change dramatically in a month. Like how they can change dramatically for an animal which endures a gestation period of a month or less. Or like how they can change for someone who has a single life-changing day, but for some reason — due probably to a neurological disorder about which Oliver Sacks has written — experiences time at roughly 1/30th the rate of the typical human.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Projecting Yankees Catching Prospect Gary Sanchez

Now that the minor league regular seasons have come to a close, and we’ve reached the ides of September, most of the noteworthy roster-expansion call-ups are behind us. Nearly all of the players who were expected to have substantial impacts on the pennant races came up on the first of the month or shortly thereafter. However, a few more prospects were promoted over the weekend, as minor league clubs were eliminated from their respective playoffs. The most notable of the rookies called up over the weekend was probably Gary Sanchez, a catcher in the Yankees organization.

Sanchez has been on the prospect radar for a few years now, ever since the Yankees gave him a big bonus to sign out of the Dominican as a 16-year-old back in 2009. Sanchez hit an excellent .286/.350/.496 (134 wRC+) over his first three seasons in the minors, but followed it up with a less impressive .261/.329/.405 (107 wRC+) between High-A and Double-A in 2013 and 2014. The primary culprit for the change was a drop-off in power, which manifested itself in substantially lower isolated power figures. However, Sanchez’s pop made a comeback in 2015, during which he split time between the Double-A and Triple-A.

Sanchez

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FanGraphs Audio: Jeff Sullivan’s Panoply of Disappointments

Episode 594
Jeff Sullivan is a senior editor at FanGraphs. He’s also the hugely woebegone guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 24 min play time.)

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NERD Game Scores for Sunday, September 13, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Los Angeles AL | 15:35 ET
Fiers (155.0 IP, 103 xFIP-) vs. Heaney (84.1 IP, 105 xFIP-)
This game represents an opportunity not only to survey, in Houston, a club currently involved in the league’s tightest divisional race — not only that, but also the first occasion on which to observe Angels left-hander Andrew Heaney since he became the first major leaguer to offer publicly a chance to invest in his success. Following an agreement with Fantex, Heaney will receive “$3.34 million in exchange for 10 percent of all future earnings,” according to Ken Rosenthal. Whether the same opportunity will be made available for major-league webloggers, the company remains not so much quiet as they don’t ever return your phone calls even though you left probably seven or ten messages on their voicemail last week and sent several emails with the word “Urgent” in the subject.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Sunday Notes: Revere, Hutchison, Ortiz, Chemistry, more

Ben Revere puts the bat on the baseball. His 4.0 swinging-strike% is fourth lowest among qualified hitters, with only Michael Brantley, Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist whiffing less often. His 97.2 Z-Contact% is topped only by Murphy’s 97.7.

Putting balls in play is working out well for the left-handed-hitting former Phillie. Revere is hitting .342/.390/390 since joining the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, and last year he led the National League with 184 hits.

Revere has a low walk rate – 5.5% – but not because he lacks discipline. His Z-Swing% is 58.4, which is 12th lowest among qualified hitters. Speedy and lacking power, he isn’t a hitter you want to issue free passes to.

“I’m not going to get pitched around,” Revere told me last weekend. “Pitchers are like, ‘Don’t let this guy get on with an easy ticket, ’cause he ain’t gonna beat you with the long ball.’ Whether it’s off-speed or fastballs, they’re going to go straight at me.”

Revere went deep yesterday for just the fourth time in over 2,500 big league plate appearances. He was told to hit the ball the other way coming up through the Twins system, and his approach has essentially stayed the same. Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Saturday, September 12, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at New York AL | TBA
Stroman (Season Debut) vs. Nova (74.0 IP, 115 xFIP-)
With their victory over the Yankees on Friday, the Blue Jays have put some metaphorical space atop the AL East between themselves and that same New York club. As for literal space, that remains mostly the same. In either case, what today represents, besides another encounter between two clubs competing for the division lead, is the season debut of beloved Toronto right-hander Marcus Stroman. This past February, Jeff Sullivan found that basically every pitch in Stroman’s repertoire is most similar to some kind of ace’s best pitch: Roy Halladay‘s sinker, Johnny Cueto‘s four-seamer, Jose Fernandez’s curveball, etc. A month later, Stroman had torn his ACL and was doubtful to return at all in 2015. The clear lesson: don’t permit Jeff Sullivan to render your name into print form.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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The Best of FanGraphs: September 8-11, 2015

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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NERD Game Scores for Friday, September 11, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Price (196.1 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Severino (35.1 IP, 94 xFIP-)
On account of how yesterday’s version of this same precise matchup — which was also that day’s most highly rated game — on account of how it was postponed, it follows that all of the remarks which appear in that edition of these scores remain relevant today. It’s a reflection of that repetition which humans must constantly endure, this postponement.

In conclusion, here is “Monday” by dead Italian polymath Primo Levi:

Is there anything sadder than a train
That leaves when it’s supposed to,
That has only one voice,
Only one route?
There’s nothing sadder.

Except perhaps a cart horse
Shut between two shafts
And unable even to look sideways.
Its whole life is walking.

And a man? Isn’t a man sad?
If he lives in solitude a long time,
If he believes time has run its course,
A man is a sad thing too.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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JABO: The Cardinals Have Been Historically Clutch

Thursday night, the Cardinals got thumped by the Reds, 11-0. Bad game. One of those games you just toss out and move on from. You might wonder what this has to do with clutch.

Conveniently, Thursday night, the Cardinals found themselves in basically zero clutch situations. For something a little more representative, consider Wednesday’s game, against the Cubs. Nine outs into the game, the Cardinals trailed 3-1. From there, they yielded no more runs; from there, they scored three more, all in the bottom of the eighth. In that way, the Cardinals won a game in which they were out-hit 11-5. They won a game in which they were out-OPSed .650-.526.

The Cardinals haven’t made a habit of that, exactly, but it gets at the idea. As I write this, the Cardinals have the best record in baseball, by a handful of games. Odds are pretty good they’ll reach or clear 100 wins. It makes sense that they also have the best run differential in the National League. Yet, interestingly, we can also consider OPS differential. By that measure, the Cardinals rank fifth in baseball, between the Pirates and the Yankees. That’s still good, obviously, but there’s something going on in between those numbers and the actual team record. Something that’s made the Cardinals look even stronger.

That something is clutch performance. The Cardinals have been clutch, far more clutch than any other team. It’s admittedly a difficult thing to quantify. And, admittedly, there are multiple definitions of “clutch.” The definition being used here is putting on a particularly good performance in pressure situations. You could think of the Cardinals as having had wonderful timing. It’s lifted their record above what you’d expect.

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.