Last week, MLB saw two of their first big trades of the winter, as both the Red Sox and Angels gave up significant pieces of their farm system to acquire upgrades to their big league roster; Boston acquired closer Craig Kimbrel, while Anaheim landed shortstop Andrelton Simmons. In both cases, the acquisitions are not rentals, as Kimbrel is signed for two more years with a team option for a third, while Simmons is under contract through the 2020 season. To get high-quality players with multiple years of team control, both teams had to give up significant prospects from their farm system.

For the Red Sox, that meant parting with a pair of consensus Top 100 prospects in outfielder Manny Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra, along with a couple of lower tier add-ons. For the Angels, the cost was left-handed pitcher Sean Newcomb, the team’s first round pick in the 2014 draft and the most coveted player they had in the minor leagues; they also sent along with a second pitching prospect and shortstop Erick Aybar, who had been their everyday player at the position for the last seven years.

Both teams surrendered talent they would rather have kept, but felt strongly enough about the players they were receiving to make the trades anyway. And both teams did get very good players, among the best at their respective positions. But in terms of what these deals did to the remains of their respective farm systems, the situations could not be more different.

In making the Kimbrel deal, Dombrowski referenced the Red Sox loaded farm system, which has regularly been seen as one of the best in baseball.

“You don’t ever like to give up young talent,” Dombrowski said. “We think they’re very talented individuals. But I do think that (because of) the good job that the people at player development, scouting, international operations have done, we do have some depth at those positions. And we do have some other quality young players that we were asked about repeatedly.”

Those quality young players Dombrowski is referring to? They are almost certainly Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, the team’s pair of 23-year-old big league cornerstones, who happen to play center field and shortstop, respectively, the same positions that Margot and Guerra are playing in the minor leagues. With those positions locked down at the Major League level for the foreseeable future, Margot and Guerra were seen as somewhat extraneous to the team’s long-term plans, and were likely going to be traded at some point. The primary justification for paying a very high price for Kimbrel is that the team’s depth of prospects allowed them to make a trade like this, because even after surrendering good young talent, they have other good young talent to help them keep their future looking bright.

The Angels are in a very different situation; Newcomb was essentially their only prospect of significance, now that Andrew Heaney has too much time in the majors to qualify as a prospect. Roberto Baldoquin, the team’s top-rated prospect after Heaney and Newcomb heading into the 2015 season, just hit a meager .235/.266/.294 in A-ball, to give you some idea of the organization’s current crop of hitting prospect. With Newcomb, the team’s farm system would have been rated as one of the worst in baseball; without him, it unquestionably is so.

So, relative to their stock of future utility to the organization, the Angels probably gave up a greater percentage of their inventory than the Red Sox did, even though it’s pretty clear the package San Diego got for Kimbrel is a better one than the Braves got for Simmons. But even though Newcomb had more utility to his own organization than Margot or Guerra did, I can’t agree with the notion that highly talented prospects should be viewed as having significantly diminished value to an organization simply because of the presence of other highly talented players, even other talented players at the same position.

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You can make a strong argument that Brandon Crawford isn’t the best shortstop in baseball. If you’re a track-record kind of guy, the default might still remain Troy Tulowitzki. And there’s just so much young talent around. Carlos Correa came up and showed he can do almost anything. Francisco Lindor came up and arguably outplayed Carlos Correa. Xander Bogaerts is coming off an awful high average, and I haven’t yet said a word about Corey Seager. Or Addison Russell. Not to mention I’m a huge fan of Jung-ho Kang. There are enough possibilities out there that you might choose “field” over “Crawford.” I won’t judge you.

But to argue against Crawford, in a way, is to acknowledge he’s at least in the conversation. And he is, if he isn’t the front-runner. Just as you can argue Crawford isn’t the best, you can argue he is, what with Tulowitzki’s apparent decline. Then you have to take a step back and realize you’re talking about Brandon Crawford. Crawford wasn’t supposed to develop into the player he’s become, and the course of that development gave the Giants the confidence to sign Crawford to a six-year extension worth $75 million. It’s not a stunning agreement now, given what we know, but years back, we didn’t know we’d know this.

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The Cincinnati Reds front office underwent a makeover a few weeks ago. Dick Williams, a 44-year-old former investment banker, was appointed the club’s general manager. Walt Jocketty, who is heading into the final year of his contract, moved from GM to President of Baseball Operations.

Williams, who had been the assistant GM, will continue to work under Jocketty until the latter steps down at the end of the 2016 season. Not a lot is expected to change over the next 10-11 months, but it will be interesting to see how differently the Reds operate once Williams is handed the decision-making reins. Jocketty has a business background of own, but he’s also 64 years old and cut his teeth on scouting. By today’s standards, he’s very much an old school executive. Professionally speaking, Williams was weaned on analytics.

Williams talked about his philosophies during last week’s GM meetings in Boca Raton.

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On working with and learning from Walt Jocketty: “It’s hard to work for a guy for eight years and not learn from him as you go. Walt has been an executive of the year for a couple of different teams. He’s been here for 20-plus years and has a ring. I’ve learned a lot from Walt.

“I got into baseball a little later in life. I was in my mid 30s. I had close to a 15-year business career in investment banking and private equity. My background isn’t totally unique in baseball front offices, but it’s somewhat unique, and it’s shaped a lot of who I am and how I think about problems.

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Episode 609
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses important developments on the topic of qualifying offers; the trade that’s sent Andrelton Simmons to Anaheim; and the other, more different trade that’s sent Craig Kimbrel to Boston.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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Anyone who’s ever tried to analyze baseball has had the occasions of coming away fairly humbled by the experience. I’ve been made to look stupid at least dozens of times, but one that really sticks out is a blog entry from May 2007, when I figured a mid-30s Raul Ibanez was about out of bat speed and power. From the date of that entry through the end of his career, Ibanez batted more than 4,000 times, drilling 166 home runs while posting a 112 wRC+ and making something like $50 million. Ibanez remained with the Mariners, left them, came back more than a half-decade later, and that year was the best hitter on the team. He was never toast until he was. It’s hard to look into the toaster.

Next season is going to be David Ortiz’s last. The official announcement is apparently coming Wednesday, but the word is out now, and it’s unlikely Ortiz is suddenly going to reverse course next November. So 2016 will bring another farewell tour for another franchise icon, and at every stop, people are going to share their memories. We all have our own, and if we’re being honest, we all have several. Among mine is that, time and time again, it’s been speculated that Ortiz was about at the end of the road. It’s a perfectly reasonable position to take with a player getting up there in years, but to Ortiz’s credit, there have been slumps, but he still hasn’t actually declined. He turns 40 tomorrow.

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Ben and Sam discuss why three free agents accepted qualifying offers, then break down both sides of the Andrelton Simmons trade.

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Ever have one of those days where as soon as you wake up, things begin going awry? Simple tasks suddenly seem difficult? You burn your toast. You go to feed the dog, but it’s dark in the pantry and you accidentally dump the food in the adjacent water dish rather than the food bowl. You’re in the shower, hands lathered up with shampoo, and you feel a tickle in your eye. You know better than to scratch it but it’s early and you haven’t had your coffee and the whole time you’re raising that hand towards your face your mind is telling you no no no stop right now damnit you’re going to ruin your morning idiot and then you just plunge that finger in there and scratch away. I’m talking a deep prod.

As the burn persists, you begin to stew. Why? How? Am I not a full-grown adult, capable of moving from simple task to simple task throughout my life without being met by wretched, shameful failure along each step of the way? Have I made it this far on good fortune alone? Once the burn subsides, you consider going back to bed. Just for 30 minutes. Pull the covers up, set an alarm, get yourself up in a half hour and pretend like none of that ever happened. Reset. But you know you can’t. It’s too late now. You’ve already gotten up and started the day; it would be a coward’s move to let it beat you this quickly. Besides, you’ve got to start writing your morning blog post.

* * *

Sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch.

We explored this topic yesterday with regards to the non-competitive pitch, or a pitch that ends up several feet from the center of the strike zone. Plenty of these pitches come on two-strike counts, which makes sense. In two-strike counts pitchers tend to work outside the zone, leaving less room for error for the difference between a slightly-outside pitch and a way-outside pitch. Consider also that pitchers are usually trying to throw strikes, meaning there’s less muscle memory for the times that they’re trying not to throw strikes. In a way, it goes against what their body is most accustomed to doing. You’d figure that every now and then, one would slip.

It’s one thing for a pitcher to do this in a two-strike count when he’s already thrown 83 pitches that day and he’s not really even trying to throw a strike. Sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch. But sometimes, pitchers throw a really bad pitch on the first pitch of the game. Pitchers always want to throw a strike on the first pitch of the game! Like, all of them. It’s one of the only things in baseball that’s an absolute guarantee. It’s literally the only reason Alcides Escobar became a thing in the postseason, because he decided to start taking advantage of the most obvious, telegraphed plan of attack in all of sport. Every pitcher wants to go out there and pound one in the zone. Every one. Yet, sometimes, it still doesn’t happen. Sometimes, a pitcher puts his jersey on, laces up those cleats, grabs his hat and his glove, walks out on the mound and just shoves a fingerful of shampoo in his eye. The same thoughts go through his mind. The why, the how, the can I go on or should I just go back to bed? Too late now. He’s got a game to pitch. As for the why and the how, it’s impossible to say for sure, but we can give our best guess.

No. 10 – Garrett Richards

• Location: 3.86 feet from the center of the PITCHf/x strike zone
• At-bat result: Fly out
• Outing result: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 5 K (1.99 ERA, 2.99 FIP)
• Explanation: Shampoo in the eye pre-game. These athletes really aren’t that different from you and I.

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While the early off-season has mostly been driven by trades — with Jerry Dipoto seemingly involved in about 80% of them — we’re reaching the point of the winter where we should expect to start seeing some free agents come off the board. Teams have had a few weeks to negotiate with various options, narrow down who might actually be a viable acquisition, and pick a direction in which to head. While there’s often a lot of activity at the winter meetings, a number of significant free agents likely won’t wait three more weeks before they pick their next home, and so I’d expect a few big dominos to start falling into place relatively soon.

So, with that background, it’s time for my annual list of free agent recommendations. For the last few years I’ve picked through the crop of free agents and selected a handful of players I think would be good values at the prices that we expect players to sign for, and as you’d expect, looking back at those recommendations is a pretty mixed bag. Teams following my suggestions maybe would have landed some bargains in Francisco Liriano, Scott Kazmir, and Russell Martin, but they also would have been stuck with Omar Infante, Nick Swisher, and Melvin Upton. Picking free agents is fraught with risk, and it’s not like we have it all figured out over here.

But as is the case every year, there are some guys that I think would be worth pursuing, as my perception of their value is higher than what we think the market is going to give them. In some cases, MLB teams might agree with me and drive up the bidding to a reasonable point — Brian McCann a few years ago, for instance, when the crowd’s estimate proved way too low — but some of these guys will likely sign a diminished price due to some flaws that teams discount more heavily than I do. In my view, these are the guys who are present the best opportunity for upside value in this free agent class.

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The sabermetric movement has grown up over the last decade. A thing that you regularly hear now that you maybe wouldn’t have heard 10 years ago is this: I don’t know. So that’s where we start today. We don’t know what the going rate for ace relief pitchers is. That said, we do have one strong data point following this weekend’s trade of Craig Kimbrel by the Padres to the Red Sox, and it suggests that the cost to grab one of the best relievers in baseball is now substantial, akin to what it might have cost to get an ace starter some years ago.

Kimbrel is an elite relief pitcher, but it was surprising to see Boston acquire him for four prospects, including two top-50 prospects in outfielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra. On top of that already substantial talent the Red Sox tossed in starting pitcher Logan Allen and infielder Carlos Asuaje. That’s a ton of young talent to give up for anyone, let alone for three years of a reliever. It looks quite possibly as though the Red Sox have reset the cost for acquiring a top reliever. But have they?

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