2016 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
Given the moves made by general manager Dave Stewart et al. this offseason — the signing of Zack Greinke, the exchange with Atlanta of three promising and cost-controlled pieces for Shelby Miller — it’s pretty clear that the club’s ambition is to win now. Of great assistance to that particular cause are Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, both of whom had great seasons in 2015 and are projected by ZiPS to produce just over nine wins in 2016. They form a strong nucleus for the club.

Less strong are the parts surrounding that nucleus — the club’s figurative cytoplasm, to extend the metaphor clumsily. With the exception of indy league success story David Peralta, no other position player receives a forecast from ZiPS of two wins or more. The departure of Ender Inciarte appears to have created no little difficulty. The author of consecutive three-win seasons for Arizona, his absence compels the team to rely heavily on Yasmany Tomas, the author of one negative-wins season, to rebound from his difficult rookie campaign. ZiPS is pessimistic about Tomas offering anything much better than a replacement-level performance.

Pitchers
Diamondbacks starters combined for roughly six wins in 2015, the third-worst mark among all rotations in the majors. Which, this reveals one certain benefit of signing Zack Greinke: he’s a candidate, in any given year, to create that sort of production all by himself. And Dan Szymborski’s computer almost suggests as much. Because it’s a projection system and basically designed to crush optimism, ZiPS projects Greinke for a mere 5.2 WAR in 2016. Still, that’s a great foundation — one which, combined with Shelby Miller’s forecast (185.0 IP, 3.0 zWAR), requires the complement of only replacement-level innings for Arizona’s 2016 rotation to surpass the 2015 edition.

As for the bullpen, it’s not the strongest to have been featured among these ZiPS posts thus far. It does feature a curious trait, however, where these forecasts are concerned. Because consider: while, for all intents and purposes, Silvio Bracho and Andrew Chapin appear likely to begin the season as the fourth and fifth options out of the D-backs’ bullpen, they’re also the recipients of that bullpen’s top forecasts — by WAR and by FIP- and and by ERA- (even if Ziegler is at least tied with Chafin by that least measure).

Bench/Prospects
Inciarte recorded a number of plate appearances in 2015 as Peralta’s platoon partner. Who precisely will fill that role is unclear. The author has inserted Phil Gosselin‘s name (393 PA, 1.0 zWAR) into the depth-chart graphic below, but has done do without much conviction. Not-catcher Peter O’Brien (479 PA, -0.5 zWAR) is another possible option. Among Arizona’s rookie-eligible position players, Brandon Drury (646 PA, 1.3 zWAR) receives the top projection, while Braden Shipley’s (132.1 IP, 0.6 zWAR) is best among pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.