2016 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
Given the moves made by general manager Dave Stewart et al. this offseason — the signing of Zack Greinke, the exchange with Atlanta of three promising and cost-controlled pieces for Shelby Miller — it’s pretty clear that the club’s ambition is to win now. Of great assistance to that particular cause are Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, both of whom had great seasons in 2015 and are projected by ZiPS to produce just over nine wins in 2016. They form a strong nucleus for the club.

Less strong are the parts surrounding that nucleus — the club’s figurative cytoplasm, to extend the metaphor clumsily. With the exception of indy league success story David Peralta, no other position player receives a forecast from ZiPS of two wins or more. The departure of Ender Inciarte appears to have created no little difficulty. The author of consecutive three-win seasons for Arizona, his absence compels the team to rely heavily on Yasmany Tomas, the author of one negative-wins season, to rebound from his difficult rookie campaign. ZiPS is pessimistic about Tomas offering anything much better than a replacement-level performance.

Pitchers
Diamondbacks starters combined for roughly six wins in 2015, the third-worst mark among all rotations in the majors. Which, this reveals one certain benefit of signing Zack Greinke: he’s a candidate, in any given year, to create that sort of production all by himself. And Dan Szymborski’s computer almost suggests as much. Because it’s a projection system and basically designed to crush optimism, ZiPS projects Greinke for a mere 5.2 WAR in 2016. Still, that’s a great foundation — one which, combined with Shelby Miller’s forecast (185.0 IP, 3.0 zWAR), requires the complement of only replacement-level innings for Arizona’s 2016 rotation to surpass the 2015 edition.

As for the bullpen, it’s not the strongest to have been featured among these ZiPS posts thus far. It does feature a curious trait, however, where these forecasts are concerned. Because consider: while, for all intents and purposes, Silvio Bracho and Andrew Chapin appear likely to begin the season as the fourth and fifth options out of the D-backs’ bullpen, they’re also the recipients of that bullpen’s top forecasts — by WAR and by FIP- and and by ERA- (even if Ziegler is at least tied with Chafin by that least measure).

Bench/Prospects
Inciarte recorded a number of plate appearances in 2015 as Peralta’s platoon partner. Who precisely will fill that role is unclear. The author has inserted Phil Gosselin‘s name (393 PA, 1.0 zWAR) into the depth-chart graphic below, but has done do without much conviction. Not-catcher Peter O’Brien (479 PA, -0.5 zWAR) is another possible option. Among Arizona’s rookie-eligible position players, Brandon Drury (646 PA, 1.3 zWAR) receives the top projection, while Braden Shipley’s (132.1 IP, 0.6 zWAR) is best among pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Paul Goldschmidt	R	28	1B	609	85	146	34	2	27	94	16	5
A.J. Pollock	R	28	CF	535	79	143	31	6	13	52	24	5
David Peralta	L	28	LF	550	62	146	28	10	16	78	8	4
Welington Castillo	R	29	C	393	38	88	18	0	14	48	1	0
Nick Ahmed	R	26	SS	517	53	116	22	5	7	42	11	6
Jake Lamb	L	25	3B	436	45	97	21	4	9	44	3	1
Brandon Drury	R	23	3B	646	64	154	37	2	12	68	4	6
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	B	31	C	358	39	71	19	0	13	40	1	1
Phil Gosselin	R	27	2B	393	44	97	20	3	6	36	4	2
Chris Owings	R	24	2B	538	59	128	26	6	7	48	15	3
Jamie Romak	R	30	3B	509	55	105	28	2	18	62	4	1
Aaron Hill	R	34	2B	416	42	96	21	2	9	49	5	3
Socrates Brito	L	23	RF	578	62	143	22	8	10	55	20	7
Joaquin Arias	R	31	SS	192	17	47	9	1	2	18	1	0
Todd Glaesmann	R	25	CF	412	44	93	22	3	12	46	5	2
Matt Pagnozzi	R	33	C	257	23	50	7	1	5	20	0	0
Colin Bray	B	23	CF	396	36	83	16	4	4	31	12	7
Chris Herrmann	L	28	C	317	33	62	14	2	5	29	2	1
Stryker Trahan	L	22	C	468	45	84	24	2	18	56	3	1
Tuffy Gosewisch	R	32	C	188	13	39	10	0	2	17	1	1
Jack Reinheimer	R	23	SS	581	58	130	22	4	6	47	18	8
Yasmany Tomas	R	25	RF	492	52	124	23	3	17	59	5	3
Carlos Rivero	R	28	3B	466	42	105	18	1	8	40	2	2
Oscar Hernandez	R	22	C	221	21	46	10	1	3	19	1	3
Gerald Laird	R	36	C	98	8	21	5	0	0	7	0	0
Garrett Weber	R	27	2B	435	44	100	19	3	7	41	2	2
Danny Worth	R	30	SS	357	30	66	17	2	4	27	5	2
Blake Lalli	L	33	C	292	26	64	11	0	4	24	0	2
Kyle Jensen	R	28	RF	489	57	101	25	2	19	63	1	1
Cody Ransom	R	40	SS	157	13	29	8	1	4	16	0	0
Mitch Haniger	R	25	CF	383	41	84	18	3	8	38	5	2
Jordan Pacheco	R	30	2B	291	25	66	15	1	3	27	2	0
Domingo Leyba	B	20	SS	492	43	109	21	3	3	34	7	7
Peter O’Brien	R	25	LF	479	59	105	25	4	23	73	0	1
Brett Hayes	R	32	C	195	17	38	9	0	6	18	1	0
Raul Navarro	R	24	SS	403	35	86	13	2	1	25	8	8
Gabby Guerrero	R	22	RF	541	54	121	23	4	11	52	11	4
Jason Bourgeois	R	34	CF	375	42	88	13	3	2	28	10	5
Rudy Flores	L	25	1B	465	44	92	20	1	14	50	1	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Paul Goldschmidt	609	15.4%	22.7%	.235	.342	.288	.397	.523	.382
A.J. Pollock	535	7.3%	14.8%	.168	.324	.293	.345	.461	.359
David Peralta	550	7.5%	19.1%	.192	.339	.293	.347	.485	.360
Welington Castillo	393	7.1%	23.4%	.169	.295	.249	.314	.418	.317
Nick Ahmed	517	5.6%	17.4%	.111	.284	.243	.287	.354	.285
Jake Lamb	436	8.5%	27.1%	.143	.327	.247	.314	.390	.307
Brandon Drury	646	4.5%	17.2%	.127	.291	.254	.293	.381	.298
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	358	10.3%	33.5%	.183	.310	.225	.304	.408	.308
Phil Gosselin	393	4.3%	17.8%	.120	.312	.265	.303	.385	.299
Chris Owings	538	4.5%	22.5%	.117	.319	.253	.289	.370	.290
Jamie Romak	509	6.9%	29.3%	.186	.288	.226	.283	.412	.302
Aaron Hill	416	7.0%	15.1%	.138	.279	.253	.308	.391	.308
Socrates Brito	578	3.8%	20.8%	.123	.313	.259	.287	.382	.300
Joaquin Arias	192	2.6%	14.6%	.093	.292	.257	.279	.350	.268
Todd Glaesmann	412	3.4%	28.2%	.164	.306	.238	.270	.402	.293
Matt Pagnozzi	257	6.2%	24.5%	.102	.269	.214	.272	.316	.256
Colin Bray	396	5.6%	26.8%	.100	.310	.229	.277	.329	.276
Chris Herrmann	317	7.3%	24.9%	.115	.277	.215	.276	.330	.267
Stryker Trahan	468	5.6%	40.6%	.188	.286	.193	.240	.381	.268
Tuffy Gosewisch	188	3.7%	18.6%	.089	.259	.218	.250	.307	.248
Jack Reinheimer	581	5.2%	20.0%	.089	.295	.241	.284	.330	.279
Yasmany Tomas	492	4.1%	22.8%	.171	.314	.264	.297	.435	.320
Carlos Rivero	466	4.9%	23.8%	.101	.302	.241	.280	.342	.273
Oscar Hernandez	221	4.1%	24.9%	.103	.289	.224	.265	.327	.264
Gerald Laird	98	7.1%	16.3%	.056	.284	.236	.296	.292	.264
Garrett Weber	435	5.1%	23.0%	.113	.310	.247	.293	.360	.289
Danny Worth	357	7.6%	31.9%	.102	.297	.202	.265	.304	.257
Blake Lalli	292	5.1%	19.2%	.085	.279	.234	.275	.319	.259
Kyle Jensen	489	6.3%	31.7%	.192	.294	.224	.280	.416	.301
Cody Ransom	157	5.1%	35.0%	.150	.278	.197	.236	.347	.252
Mitch Haniger	383	6.0%	23.0%	.137	.293	.240	.291	.377	.293
Jordan Pacheco	291	6.2%	15.1%	.098	.284	.248	.300	.346	.283
Domingo Leyba	492	3.7%	17.7%	.078	.281	.236	.266	.314	.261
Peter O’Brien	479	4.6%	32.2%	.228	.298	.234	.276	.462	.315
Brett Hayes	195	3.1%	27.2%	.146	.252	.205	.233	.351	.251
Raul Navarro	403	5.5%	23.3%	.054	.305	.231	.278	.285	.259
Gabby Guerrero	541	3.5%	28.5%	.124	.309	.234	.261	.358	.275
Jason Bourgeois	375	5.1%	12.0%	.071	.281	.250	.290	.321	.279
Rudy Flores	465	4.3%	41.5%	.148	.338	.211	.256	.359	.270

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Paul Goldschmidt	609	8.0	150	6	4.8	Jeff Bagwell
A.J. Pollock	535	6.4	119	7	4.3	Carl Furillo
David Peralta	550	6.4	125	-2	2.5	Andre Ethier
Welington Castillo	393	4.7	99	-4	1.7	Charles Johnson
Nick Ahmed	517	3.6	75	9	1.6	Brian Harris
Jake Lamb	436	4.4	92	4	1.6	Chris Brown
Brandon Drury	646	3.9	83	5	1.3	Casey McGehee
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	358	4.3	93	-5	1.1	Mike Rose
Phil Gosselin	393	4.3	87	1	1.0	Mike Tyson
Chris Owings	538	4.1	79	2	0.9	Carlos Garcia
Jamie Romak	509	4.1	88	-2	0.9	Bill Hall
Aaron Hill	416	4.3	90	-2	0.7	Scott Brosius
Socrates Brito	578	4.1	82	8	0.6	Bruce Fields
Joaquin Arias	192	3.6	71	0	0.2	Alvaro Espinoza
Todd Glaesmann	412	3.9	81	-3	0.2	Pat Rooney
Matt Pagnozzi	257	3.0	61	0	0.1	Chad Moeller
Colin Bray	396	3.1	65	4	0.1	Xavier Paul
Chris Herrmann	317	3.1	65	-3	0.1	Chad Moeller
Stryker Trahan	468	3.1	67	-5	0.0	Steve Lomasney
Tuffy Gosewisch	188	2.6	52	2	0.0	Charlie Greene
Jack Reinheimer	581	3.4	68	-3	0.0	Jhonny Perez
Yasmany Tomas	492	4.7	97	-8	-0.1	Jermaine Dye
Carlos Rivero	466	3.4	69	1	-0.1	John Hotchkiss
Oscar Hernandez	221	2.8	61	-1	-0.1	Hector Gimenez
Gerald Laird	98	3.1	62	-2	-0.1	Rick Cerone
Garrett Weber	435	3.7	78	-5	-0.1	Juan Melo
Danny Worth	357	2.8	56	2	-0.1	Trace Coquillette
Blake Lalli	292	2.9	62	-2	-0.2	Chris Ashby
Kyle Jensen	489	4.0	88	-4	-0.2	Jeff Kipila
Cody Ransom	157	2.8	57	-1	-0.3	Rene Gonzales
Mitch Haniger	383	3.9	81	-7	-0.3	David Hall
Jordan Pacheco	291	3.8	77	-5	-0.3	Mike Tyson
Domingo Leyba	492	2.8	59	1	-0.5	Jorge Velandia
Peter O’Brien	479	4.4	98	-11	-0.5	Tim Costo
Brett Hayes	195	2.8	58	-4	-0.5	Chad Moeller
Raul Navarro	403	2.6	55	1	-0.5	Mike Huyler
Gabby Guerrero	541	3.4	68	3	-0.9	Darrin Jackson
Jason Bourgeois	375	3.4	67	-7	-0.9	Ken Woods
Rudy Flores	465	3.1	66	-1	-1.7	Tate Seefried

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Zack Greinke	R	32	29	29	190.7	174	40	16	164	63	59
Shelby Miller	R	25	32	31	185.0	156	64	20	172	80	75
Robbie Ray	L	24	30	29	151.7	143	62	14	144	70	65
Patrick Corbin	L	26	22	21	128.7	105	32	13	126	57	53
Josh Collmenter	R	30	34	19	137.0	91	34	16	137	64	60
Chase Anderson	R	28	26	26	145.7	121	41	18	146	71	66
Rubby de la Rosa	R	27	28	28	163.0	132	54	22	165	85	79
Silvino Bracho	R	23	55	0	56.0	70	14	7	46	20	19
Braden Shipley	R	24	24	24	132.3	97	48	16	138	72	67
Andrew Chafin	L	26	69	0	74.3	62	29	5	66	30	28
Zack Godley	R	26	30	11	84.3	69	32	9	82	42	39
Brad Ziegler	R	36	61	0	58.7	40	18	4	54	24	22
Tim Stauffer	R	34	35	6	75.0	60	23	8	75	36	34
Kaleb Fleck	R	27	50	0	57.3	63	25	6	50	24	22
Randall Delgado	R	26	63	0	72.7	77	32	7	64	31	29
Kyle Drabek	R	28	26	18	103.7	68	37	13	109	58	54
Daniel Hudson	R	29	33	0	35.7	36	12	4	32	15	14
David Hernandez	R	31	49	0	45.3	48	17	6	40	20	19
Evan Marshall	R	26	57	0	61.0	51	22	5	60	28	26
Adam Miller	R	26	36	5	59.0	44	25	5	59	30	28
Dominic Leone	R	24	49	0	60.3	57	26	5	55	28	26
Adam Loewen	L	32	41	7	82.3	78	50	8	75	43	40
Keith Hessler	L	27	60	0	67.7	64	20	8	65	31	29
Enrique Burgos	R	25	56	0	53.7	71	31	6	44	25	23
Archie Bradley	R	23	16	16	75.7	62	40	9	75	43	40
Matt Reynolds	L	31	42	0	42.7	38	13	6	41	20	19
Scott Rice	L	34	50	0	32.3	32	19	3	28	15	14
Jake Barrett	R	24	53	0	56.3	49	23	6	54	28	26
Jimmie Sherfy	R	24	48	0	52.7	51	25	7	50	28	26
Matt Koch	R	25	27	14	95.7	52	23	14	109	58	54
Blayne Weller	R	26	26	20	117.0	92	53	17	125	72	67
Will Locante	L	26	44	0	46.3	40	30	5	45	27	25
Matt Buschmann	R	32	23	22	122.0	89	55	19	129	76	71
Matt Stites	R	26	50	0	48.3	36	19	7	51	28	26
Caleb Clay	R	28	22	21	118.3	63	34	19	135	74	69

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Zack Greinke	190.7	776	22.4%	5.2%	.273	2.78	3.11	68	79
Shelby Miller	185.0	791	19.7%	8.1%	.278	3.65	3.90	90	100
Robbie Ray	151.7	661	21.6%	9.4%	.299	3.86	3.82	95	98
Patrick Corbin	128.7	544	19.3%	5.9%	.290	3.71	3.68	91	94
Josh Collmenter	137.0	582	15.6%	5.8%	.276	3.94	4.05	97	104
Chase Anderson	145.7	624	19.4%	6.6%	.292	4.08	4.01	100	103
Rubby de la Rosa	163.0	708	18.6%	7.6%	.288	4.36	4.35	107	111
Silvino Bracho	56.0	228	30.7%	6.1%	.291	3.05	3.09	75	79
Braden Shipley	132.3	583	16.6%	8.2%	.294	4.56	4.52	112	115
Andrew Chafin	74.3	318	19.5%	9.1%	.277	3.39	3.42	83	87
Zack Godley	84.3	367	18.8%	8.7%	.290	4.16	4.19	102	107
Brad Ziegler	58.7	248	16.1%	7.3%	.272	3.37	3.50	83	90
Tim Stauffer	75.0	323	18.6%	7.1%	.293	4.08	3.91	100	100
Kaleb Fleck	57.3	247	25.5%	10.1%	.294	3.45	3.63	85	93
Randall Delgado	72.7	314	24.5%	10.2%	.289	3.59	3.58	88	91
Kyle Drabek	103.7	457	14.9%	8.1%	.287	4.69	4.70	115	120
Daniel Hudson	35.7	151	23.8%	7.9%	.283	3.53	3.53	87	90
David Hernandez	45.3	193	24.9%	8.8%	.286	3.77	4.02	93	103
Evan Marshall	61.0	265	19.2%	8.3%	.299	3.84	3.64	94	93
Adam Miller	59.0	261	16.9%	9.6%	.293	4.27	4.20	105	107
Dominic Leone	60.3	262	21.8%	9.9%	.291	3.88	3.59	95	92
Adam Loewen	82.3	372	21.0%	13.4%	.291	4.37	4.54	107	116
Keith Hessler	67.7	288	22.2%	6.9%	.295	3.86	3.74	95	96
Enrique Burgos	53.7	236	30.1%	13.1%	.304	3.86	3.81	95	98
Archie Bradley	75.7	342	18.1%	11.7%	.291	4.76	4.77	117	122
Matt Reynolds	42.7	182	20.9%	7.1%	.284	4.01	4.12	99	105
Scott Rice	32.3	144	22.2%	13.2%	.284	3.90	4.15	96	106
Jake Barrett	56.3	246	19.9%	9.4%	.291	4.15	4.09	102	104
Jimmie Sherfy	52.7	233	21.9%	10.7%	.292	4.44	4.49	109	115
Matt Koch	95.7	419	12.4%	5.5%	.293	5.08	4.89	125	125
Blayne Weller	117.0	529	17.4%	10.0%	.300	5.15	5.02	127	128
Will Locante	46.3	214	18.7%	14.0%	.294	4.86	4.98	119	127
Matt Buschmann	122.0	550	16.2%	10.0%	.290	5.24	5.25	129	134
Matt Stites	48.3	215	16.8%	8.8%	.292	4.84	4.80	119	123
Caleb Clay	118.3	524	12.0%	6.5%	.289	5.25	5.20	129	133

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Zack Greinke	190.7	8.21	1.89	0.76	142	5.2	Doug Drabek
Shelby Miller	185.0	7.59	3.11	0.97	108	3.0	Jon Garland
Robbie Ray	151.7	8.48	3.68	0.83	103	2.0	Trevor Wilson
Patrick Corbin	128.7	7.34	2.24	0.91	107	1.9	Doug Davis
Josh Collmenter	137.0	5.98	2.23	1.05	100	1.5	Bud Podbielan
Chase Anderson	145.7	7.47	2.53	1.11	97	1.5	Brian Powell
Rubby de la Rosa	163.0	7.29	2.98	1.21	91	1.2	Eric Junge
Silvino Bracho	56.0	11.25	2.25	1.13	130	0.7	Robb Nen
Braden Shipley	132.3	6.60	3.27	1.09	87	0.6	Brian Moehler
Andrew Chafin	74.3	7.51	3.51	0.61	117	0.6	Tug McGraw
Zack Godley	84.3	7.37	3.42	0.96	95	0.6	Tom McCarthy
Brad Ziegler	58.7	6.13	2.76	0.61	117	0.5	Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Tim Stauffer	75.0	7.20	2.76	0.96	97	0.5	Bob Scanlan
Kaleb Fleck	57.3	9.90	3.93	0.94	115	0.4	Kevin Barry
Randall Delgado	72.7	9.53	3.96	0.87	110	0.4	Ryan Bukvich
Kyle Drabek	103.7	5.90	3.21	1.13	84	0.3	John Webb
Daniel Hudson	35.7	9.08	3.03	1.01	112	0.2	Gregg Olson
David Hernandez	45.3	9.54	3.38	1.19	105	0.2	Jose Alvarez
Evan Marshall	61.0	7.52	3.25	0.74	103	0.2	Jose Rodriguez
Adam Miller	59.0	6.71	3.81	0.76	93	0.2	Ryan Baker
Dominic Leone	60.3	8.51	3.88	0.75	102	0.2	Marc Pisciotta
Adam Loewen	82.3	8.53	5.47	0.87	91	0.2	Randy Williams
Keith Hessler	67.7	8.51	2.66	1.06	103	0.1	Shawn Barton
Enrique Burgos	53.7	11.90	5.20	1.01	103	0.1	Marcus Moore
Archie Bradley	75.7	7.37	4.76	1.07	83	0.1	Roger Salkeld
Matt Reynolds	42.7	8.01	2.74	1.26	99	0.1	Joey Eischen
Scott Rice	32.3	8.92	5.29	0.84	102	0.0	Marshall Bridges
Jake Barrett	56.3	7.83	3.68	0.96	95	0.0	Pete Sikaras
Jimmie Sherfy	52.7	8.71	4.27	1.20	89	-0.2	Jason Gilfillan
Matt Koch	95.7	4.89	2.16	1.32	78	-0.3	Brian Walker
Blayne Weller	117.0	7.08	4.08	1.31	77	-0.4	Lee Rodney
Will Locante	46.3	7.78	5.83	0.97	81	-0.5	Dean Brueggemann
Matt Buschmann	122.0	6.57	4.06	1.40	76	-0.5	Andy Hawkins
Matt Stites	48.3	6.71	3.54	1.30	82	-0.5	Mario Ramos
Caleb Clay	118.3	4.79	2.59	1.45	75	-0.5	Nick Roberts

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.