FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/5/16

by Paul Swydan

January 5, 2016

5:29	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I accidentally started the chat, but as you probably know, we won’t truly be starting until 9 pm ET. So, we’ll see you soon, for the first chat of the year!

9:01	Guest: HNY

9:01	Paul Swydan: Happy New Year to you all as well!

9:01	Carr: did Jeter dope to prolong his career – speculations only

9:01	Paul Swydan: I sincerely doubt it.

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:02	Carr: Joey Votto, Oakland Athletic. They’ve got the prospects. Would the Reds eat enough cash to make it possible?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Again, I sincerely doubt it. The Reds don’t strike me as the kind of team that is interested in operating at a loss.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Votto has a no-trade clause and is happy in Cinny

9:02	ben: Starting a franchise who do you choose machado or correa

9:02	Paul Swydan: Correa for me.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Correa, Machado’s long-term health worries me.

9:03	Copp: If you are a billionaire owner of a team, could you, without breaking any MLB regulations insert yourself into a game as a DH pinch hitter in a blowout?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I don’t see why not. We came close once, when Ted Turner managed the Braves for a game! http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/05/11/123387944/38-years-ago-then-braves-owner-ted-turner-decided-to-manage-his-own-team-for-a-game

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: It was cause havoc on the 25 and 40-man roster which may not be worth it (at least for me)

9:05	Paul Swydan: Yeah, the only way I could see it is if there were a lot of players who could be moved to the 60-day DL (thus opening up a 40-man spot) in a lost season.

9:05	Matt: Do the A’s trade Reddick at any point this offseason or next season? Also, along a similar vein, do they sign Gray to an extension or trade him next offseason?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s the A’s, no one is safe. Trade everyone. Truthfully, who knows.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’m sure that at this point the MLBPA is hoping that Gray doesn’t sign an extension. If he does, I would think the A’s wouldn’t be getting much of a discount.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I couldn’t see them trading Reddick at the moment, with all of the free agent outfielders, but maybe in July??

9:07	Shaemoose: Are the Mariners a darkhorse pick to win the AL west this year? They were successful two years ago and almost made the playoffs, and were on paper a world series team last year, before the team absolutely collapsed. Plus, they have a sane GM this year, which helps.

9:07	Paul Swydan: They would have to be a very dark darkhorse. I don’t see myself picking them, but I would give them a non-zero chance of pulling it off.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t see it, sorry. I think the Rangers are the Dark Horse, especially since they led the league in days lost to the DL.

9:08	Larry Eagle: Am I grossly under thinking Cespedes to the Cardinals being a great fit? I could see them really valuing keeping the pick, and the middle order pop. I guess the question is, would he play right field for one year?

9:09	Paul Swydan: If the money is right, I’m sure he would. But they need a spot for Piscotty. Or at least, they believe they need one. So I don’t see this happening.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: The Cards are in a weird situation with OK players across the board. Maybe they can make a trade instead.

9:10	Old Man Roto: How big of a fantasy hit does Ian Desmond take if he signs with the Pads? Would you take Zobrist over him if the same price? Mix 5×5 values

9:10	Paul Swydan: I would probably take Zobrist over Desmond no matter who Desmond signs with, to be honest.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, Desmond was his own worst enemy in ’15

9:11

Lawrence: Hey Paul, Happy New Year……people are saying if the Yankees have a lead after 6 innings it’s game over. Rightfully so. But why not 5 innings? Do you think Girardi would consider using any of the big 3 in the 6th inning and have them go 2 innings regularly? He could rotate who throws 2 innings. May as well exploit your strength if they keep their pitch counts low.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think in the postseason, he may do this. But certainly not in the regular season. For one thing, he’d have a LOT of cranky starting pitchers, who aren’t going to see things the same way you or I might. For two, he’d probably burn out the bullpen pretty fast that way.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like it and there is no reason to assume each pitcher will be around the entire season. I would not be surprised if one or two of them spend time on the DL.

9:13

birdwatcher: Do the Orioles absolutely need to sign Upton or Cespedes to possibly a bad deal if Davis doesn’t take their offer? Couldn’t they make a trade for Reddick (or get Parra back) and sign Pedro Alvarez to be their DH? Trumbo moves to 1B and the money saved could be used to re-sign Chen now that Kazmir is gone.

9:14	Paul Swydan: They certainly don’t HAVE to sign Upton/Cespedes, but given that Cespedes can’t net the Mets draft pick comp, I would think he’d be very attractive to Duquette. Also, I’m not enamored with any plan – be it A or B – that involves Pedro Alvarez.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure they have to, but it would make them a better team next season. And as Paul said, no draft pick with Cespedes.

9:16

Jojo: I remember that the big Prince Fielder signing a few years back was largely a reaction to Victor Martinez getting hurt during the offseason. Do you think a team would still react that rashly to a sudden injury? Say, for instance, a player like Hunter Pence or Jose Abreu goes down, and suddenly Justin Upton or Chris Davis gets $170m.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Well, those were special circumstances, so I want to say no. But it only takes one team, so I can’t say no.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I could see it, but the player would really have to hold off with the chance an injury doesn’t happen and they will need to take a pay cut.

9:18	GSon: Mad Dog Russo says Ozzie shouldn’t be in the HOF.. He says Vizquel will never get into the HOF.. He says Larkin was a nice player but not a HOF’er.. Is he really wrong.. wrong.. or bat crap crazy?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Do yourself a favor, and stop listening to people who are just trying to get a rise out of people.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Really wrong.. wrong

9:19	Phil: Considering what it appears Chen and Gallardo are going to have to sign for, and what Kazmir did sign for, is the Leake signing starting to look like the worst FA contract so far? Seems like a pretty big overpay, even if he is only 28.

9:20

Paul Swydan: It was an overpay, and he isn’t great, but he has been as reliable as a SP can be, and with a bunch of injury risks – Waino, Martinez, Garcia – that’s what the Cards needed. Signing Kazmir would have just added another red flag to a rotation of red flags. Hard to see that as comforting, or wise.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: It is a bloated deal, but not horrible.

9:20

Lawrence: Alejandro De Aza will end up being the 4th OF for the Mets in my opinion. They can’t be that stupid to have him facing RHP every day right? The window is now, and putting him out there basically helps slam it shut. Do you think they make a play for Fowler, Span, Jackson, or dare I say Cespedes (if he only gets 3 year offers)?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Mets will add another OF, but I could see them waiting out the market a bit.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Sorry. To answer, no, I think the Mets are done with outfielders.

9:23	Lebron: Who wins the AL central next year?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Indians if the season started now. I think the Royals could if they add a SP and OF

9:24	Paul Swydan: For my money, this is the toughest division to read right now. I will say the Royals, just because I don’t see a clear team, and they’re the champs.

9:25	What if…….: If you had your own hour long regular show on the MLB Network, what kind of theme would your show have? And who would you want to be your co-host/sidekick?

9:26	Paul Swydan: If I had a whole hour, it would probably focus on deep dives on a specific play or game or team or season. Some contained entity. I would want an intelligent former pitcher around, to help explain pitching. Someone like David Cone.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Let’s file that under “things that will never happen.”

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Arod as my side kick. It would be 15 minute segments on a deep subject like how a player plans on stealing a base, why another player’s curve is great, etc ….. and no HOF talk. Zero. None.

9:27	Ralph Wiggum: So…do you like stuff?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I do, Ralph. So many stuffs.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: No all stuff.

9:28	Ryan: Jeff, I had some fun with aging curves recently and was wondering – have people come around on the idea of the flat age 22 to 26 wRC+ curve? Checking back on your post about it in ’13, there seemed to be a lot of disagreement in the comments.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Some, especially for people looking at the data. I have seen quotes about teams saying it is true.

9:29	Dr Evil: If Upton was willing to take a 1 year deal (and take his chances in a much less crowded OF FA market next year), what would he get?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: $36M

9:29	Paul Swydan: He’d probably need $30+ million to take a one-year deal. I don’t see that happening. These guys are all going to get paid just like we thought they would in November or December.

9:30	Matt(a): Paul/Jeff – Your recognition of Cone/Rod as intelligent sidekicks makes me happy, and your thought on a show excite me even more. Let’s get rid of the Dog, and Millar, and potentially cut the Greg Amsinger 6-hour power down a little and get you guys in a back-to-back 2 hour slot.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Haha, I’ll make some calls. I’m sure that MLB Network is dying to have an overweight nerd in glasses host an hour-long show. 🙂

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Doesn’t everyone want a centaur as a sidekick?

9:32	infrinjinsin: Financial considerations aside, if you could draft either Kevin Maitan or Lazarito this July, who would you pick?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Wow, no idea. This is the first I’ve heard either name. Just posting this here on the off-chance I begin to remember these names for future reference.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not up to date on either of those two.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: BRB

9:33	Rated Rookie: Think Puig can rediscover success is LA? Does the “change of scenery” narrative have any purchase here?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I do believe that he can rediscover his success. Perhaps the change in manager will do him good. If not, then it may be change of scenery time.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree with Paul

9:35	Matt: Theo should contact Billy about a Schwarber for Gray swap. Yes/No? Straight up, or who needs to add more?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I do like this idea, but I think Theo would need to kick in some more. But let’s put it to a poll, why don’t we?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is a good starting point for both sides.

9:37	Kirk Gibson HR Trot: What do you think of the AA hire by the Dodgers?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: A non-event right now. Maybe AA is setting up to take on a football team

9:39	Paul Swydan: The fact that his role is unspecified makes me think that this is a holding move for him. Similar to how Dipoto went to the Red Sox until he got his next GM job. The Dodgers can’t call it “interim” for AA given the time of year, but that’s what it seems like.

9:39	Matt: Double question – 1) Never been in one of your chats, what’s your topics focus? 2) Trea Turner, will he start next year? I’ve got Alicides Escobar and Kang at great contracts, thinking about moving Esco, but scared about the start of the season. Got Turner in my minors.

9:40	Paul Swydan: We try not to have a focus! We bend to the will of you, the people. Sometimes I’ll stray and start talking Simpsons, or hip-hop, or movies, and this makes Jeff very angry. But usually we just try to pick the best questions and answer them. 🙂

9:41	Paul Swydan: As for Trea Turner, I don’t see him starting in the first half, especially after the Stephen Drew signing.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: 1. Whatever mood Paul is in for the night 2)Make a trade later in the season when Kang is back

9:42	The Dude of NY: Would you say the Orioles are in a similar position to the Reds in 2014, in that they’re one season removed from a very successful season, but should really start rebuilding now, or face underwhelming returns when they inevitably have to?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Sort of. The difference is that Dan Duquette can run circles around Walt Jocketty, and he will keep the O’s afloat for far longer.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: They could be, but I would make sure the team is dead. I rookie breakout or two and they are back in the hunt. I would error on the side of being a bit late on a rebuild.

9:44	Dr Evil: gut feel: Wagner a HOF’r?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope

9:45	Paul Swydan: Gut feel – he gets in in year 10, when some of the backlog has been cleared, both on the ballot and among the people who fill it out.

9:46

Joe Quinn: Swydan, I notice you linked to a story about the ABL’s Perth Heat earlier. Do either of you guys keep an eye on the ABL at all? If so, any fringey prospects currently playing in the ABL that you would pick to make meaningful MLB contributions in the near future, ala Kiermaier, Gregorious (ex Canberra Cavalry, ABL alums)?..

9:47	Paul Swydan: I don’t, no. But the woman who wrote that story for THT, Alexis Brudnicki, has been in Australia during the ABL for the past four years, and is a prospect watcher. If anyone knows, she does. Hit her up on Twitter.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t follow it at all and don’t know about any of their prospects

9:48	Matt(a): I’m a fan of Cashman, and understand (and like) most of his moves (and agree). But what are your thoughts on the team looking for SPs with a full (injury risk) rotation, after trading their best spot starter, and putting their 6th starter (Nova) on the market?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I mean, why wouldn’t you put your 6th starter on the trade market? I don’t see the problem.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Nova wasn’t really good after coming back and who knows in the information is even real.

9:50	Larry Eagle: Just overheard my daughter say “mama, I think something’s wrong. All of my farts are hot.” Not saying this needs to be added to the chat, but damn was it funny.

9:50	Paul Swydan: No no, that needed to be added to the chat.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Hot farts

9:50	The Dude: I like your in depth MLB TV show. I would like to see a single game dissected in depth by a few players from said game. Pick a game long enough ago that all players are retired so that no current secrets get divulged. You like?

9:51

Paul Swydan: The production budget would be a lot higher for stuff like that, because you’d need to track them down, find a common time for them to be in the studio, fly them all in, etc, etc. I’d prefer to do that only for special occasions, and rely on the talent on hand for the most part. But it’s a good idea, obviously.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe one game a week. Maybe all of Pedro’s starts when he hit a batter would be a good place to start

9:52	rustydude: Considering Theo’s success returning championship baseball in Boston, and his impending success doing the same in Chicago, should he move onto the NFL and run the Browns – oops!

9:52	Paul Swydan: Haha. Well, Theo does certainly seem to have the golden touch, but nothing in Chicago is assured. We said the same thing about the Nationals last year, and look how that turned out.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Why would anyone get near the Browns is beyond me.

9:54

Gerard: Could GMs loading their team’s bullpen with a lot of equally talented relief pitchers be a way for them to eliminate the previously poor decisions that bench coaches and managers would make as to what an actual high leverage situation was? It seems like this could be a possible explanation for why the KC and NYY teams have surpassed their expected win totals in the last couple of years.

9:55

Paul Swydan: Yes, but again, this is a delicate balancing act. If you sign guys like this in free agency, or trade for them, there is an expectation among those players that they are going to pitch. If you’re not pitching them, then guys get grumpy. So you can’t just go out and sign 7 great set-up men/closers, because they’ll all eat each other.

9:57	Dale: Hey Paul, is Swihart a trade bait with Vazquez return?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, but I looked into detail on KC exceeding their win total and it came down to projected defense. KC is the only team ever to have 3 straight seasons of 50+ UZR. Most other teams with UZR over 50 regress by around 40 UZR

9:57	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. For one, I don’t think Vazquez is the better player of the two. For two, every team should have two good catchers, so the Red Sox should just hold on to both of them.

9:59	Paul: You think the Braves could swoop in and make a play on one of these big remaining free agents? They have cleared payroll considerably for the future and plan on contending in 2017. #MysteryTeam?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not really. I see them picking up some pieces at the end and trying to move them at the trade deadline.