2016 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Cincinnati / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
The object of considerable attention among the authors of this site, it’s probably not inaccurate to suggest that infielder/outfielder Mookie Betts is riddled with virtue. Or perhaps, afflicted by virtue. In either case, what he’s done is to parlay wide-ranging competence into a star-level profile. He’s projected to produce nearly a 20-20 season while also recording a strikeout rate of about 12%. He certainly doesn’t possess the skill set typical of a right fielder, but he’s equipped to produce wins anywhere, given an opportunity.

Elsewhere, one finds that (a) the second-best projection among Boston’s field players belongs to another 23-year-old, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, (b) ZiPS forecasts a slightly above-average season for Jackie Bradley Jr., and (c) Hanley Ramirez receives a defensive projection for first base!

Pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, and Clay Buchholz appear in that order on the depth-chart image below because that’s the order in which they appear when sorted by ZiPS’ projected WAR figures. That likely doesn’t reflect the order in which they’ll record their starts to begin the season. In either case, each is forecast to produce a roughly average season in 2016 — and none are expected to rival the newly acquired David Price as the club’s ace.

With regard to the bullpen, the projected numbers are probably more conservative the one would expect. Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith, who combined for nearly four wins in 2015 — as measured by either FIP- or runs-based WAR — receive a mere two wins between them courtesy Dan Szymborski’s computer. Even despite that modest figure, the unit’s top four relievers all profile as competent pieces.

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth chart below, but likely to accumulate a modest total of plate appearances as a bench player is Brock Holt, who receives a bench player’s type of projection (540 PA, 1.0 zWAR). With the exception of Deven Marrero (471 PA, 0.7 zWAR), there are no rookie-eligible players who would appear qualified even for a bench spot. Among pitchers, there’s more depth. Neither Henry Owens (159.0 IP, 1.5 zWAR) nor Roenis Elias (145.1 IP, 1.2 zWAR) is expected to begin the season with a large role. They’re not bad as backup plans, however. Matt Barnes (119.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) and Brian Johnson (104.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) also possess some promise.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.