2016 ZiPS Projections – Houston Astros

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
Whether by accident or design, the current iteration of the Astros does appear nevertheless to reveal a clue as to the method by which the club’s roster has been constructed. Per ZiPS, there are two sorts of player among Houston’s starting nine: those whose projected WAR figures can be rounded comfortably to three wins or higher, and those whose forecasts are rounded merely to a single win. Only two players (Evan Gattis and Jon Singleton) occupy the latter group and — again, whether by coincidence or not — they also happen to occupy those positions which require the least defensive skill (or, in the case of designated hitter, no defensive skill at all). One could reasonably make a case that the club has prioritized acquiring and/or developing players with some manner of defensive value. The case may not be correct, but at least it’s capable of being presented with tolerable credulity.

One player who possesses considerable offensive and defensive talent — and who was also a rookie in 2015 — is shortstop Carlos Correa. On the verge of entering just his age-21 season, Correa is the recipient of the top projection among the club’s entire roster, forecast to produce roughly five wins in 2016 on the strength not merely of average shortstop defense but also the team’s best batting line. Owing to how none of us is immune from the icy grip of the Reaper, Correa won’t be great forever. That said, he appears entirely capable of approximating those early versions of Troy Tulowitzki who avoided injury.

Pitchers
With regard to the rotation, the Astros enter the 2016 season much as they did the 2015 one: heavily dependent on two starters who’ve experienced considerable success in recent years despite average fastball velocities that might relegate them to the later rounds were they to enter this next June’s amateur draft. Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh produced either 10 wins or 12 wins collectively in 2015, depending on how one chooses to calculate WAR. They’re not forecast to match either total in 2016, although that’s mostly because of how projection systems are informed largely by regression. The prognosis is positive, regardless.

As for the bullpen, it has benefited this offseason by losing roughly no one of import and gaining one of the top-five relievers in baseball. The departure of Vincent Velasquez might ultimately prove troublesome to a rotation that’s once again dependent on the arm of Scott Feldman. There are few pitchers in the league, however, who can equal Ken Giles (72.0 IP, 69 ERA- 64 FIP-) on a per-inning basis. Only a small handful of pitchers (Aroldis Chapman, Wade Davis) from the clubs already considered in this series have received better projected FIP- figures than Houston’s prospective closer.

Bench/Prospects
Per Dan Szymborski’s computer, the player likely to produce the fifth-best season among Houston’s position players is one who’s compiled precisely zero plate appearances above Double-A. Selected 42nd overall out of the University of Kentucky in 2014, first baseman A.J. Reed was drafted later than any Golden Spikes winner since Kip Bouknight in 2000. The power he exhibited as an amateur seems to have translated well to the professional game, however: despite his lack of experience even in the high minors, Reed is projected to record the sixth-best isolated-power figure (.195) on the club — and to produce nearly three wins overall. Shortstop Alex Bregman (502 PA, 1.3 zWAR) and third baseman Colin Moran (489 PA, 1.0 zWAR) also both receive promising forecasts relative to age and experience. Right-handed reliever James Hoyt (55.1 IP, 0.4 zWAR), a 29-year-old who played in the Mexican league as recently as 2012, receives the best prognosis for rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Astros, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.