FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/12/16

Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this! I’m very disappointed in those of you who claim you don’t listen to Kanye West, btw.

Bad Hermit: Is this the State of the Union live chat?

Paul Swydan: No, no it is not.

Jeff Zimmerman: No … hell no.

Paul Swydan: We’re what’s known as the counterprogramming.

Paul Swydan: And I guess I’m a bad American, because I’m watching the Celtics game.

Ryan: Would you rather, in a dynasty format, Votto or Bumgarner?

Jeff Zimmerman: Votto, I will always side witht he hitter

Paul Swydan: Probably Bumgarner. I expect Votto has another 2-3 good years in him, but I expect Bumgarner to have at least 4-5.

Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS! Right out of the gate!

Jeff Zimmerman: No agreement night

Cwik: Anyone who picks against My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy is a nerd and a loser!

Paul Swydan: Chris Cwik has spoken. I tend to agree.

Paul Swydan: I was listening to the College Dropout instrumentals today, if you’re wondering what spurred this.

Billy Corman: I don’t know if you guys answer fantasy questions, but who would you predict to have the better career (or even first 5 years): Rodon, Severino or Iglesias?

Paul Swydan: We do! I will still ride with Rodon, but there is definitely a good case for Iglesias. Severino still may end up in the pen though, so not sure I’d want to take him.

Jeff Zimmerman: Iglesias – I like his arsenal and pitches. Just a little worried about his health

Neal Huntington: Do the Dodgers go out and get another elite bullpen arm on the trade market? Or were they just in on Chapman because he’s Chapman?

Paul Swydan: I think the Dodgers more or less have their toes in the water on everyone, and just winnow down to the players they can get a good deal on. I think Chapman qualified as such a player, because obviously the Reds were just trying to give him away.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think they could use one of their 26 starters and move them to the bullpen and it would work fine.

Paul Swydan: Yeah, that too.

Matt: Dickerson & Lyles for Odorizzi and a prospect. My prediction. Yours?

Paul Swydan: I like the idea of sending CarGo to the Tigers for Norris or whichever pitching prospect they’ll give up. CarGo’s salary ain’t no thang for the Tigers, and he would help them. The Rockies should hang on to Dickerson unless they get a Godfather offer for him, and that is not a Godfather offer.

Jeff Zimmerman: It will be for an arm and I think Cargo is gone. I could see the Oriole rumors pan out

FTF: In recent years, it seems to me that teams got good when they drafted in the 1-10 picks for multiple years (Houston, Rays, Nats, Cubs…). Is it why teams like Oakland or the Indians will remain middling teams averaging 50% winning pourcentage in the long term ?

Paul Swydan: I think that is part of it. But I think it’s also because they aren’t capable of making dollar-heavy moves in free agency, so they have one fewer team building avenue than do other teams.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think both have their chances to make the playoffs and don’t need the complete overhaul.

FTF: What is your favorite baseball book ? (I won’t take THT as an satisfying answer)

Paul Swydan: Probably “The Teammates,” by David Halberstam. That is my standard answer. Jonah Keri’s Expos book is up there as well. “Moneyball” helped set me on this path, so that is in the running as well.

Jeff Zimmerman: Anything Roger Angell has written. All are pure gold.

Jeff Zimmerman: Ball Four is also up there.

Anthony: I really fail to see how Fangraphs is predicting the Jays and Red Sox to score the same amount of runs per game this year. Am I missing something? The Jays were easily the best offensive team in the league last year, and it wasn’t close. They’ve lost Ben Revere, but still have Saunders (who is predicted to be BETTER than Revere at the dish) and Pompey who has tons of potential, not even mentioning a full season from Devon Travis. Boston added exactly 0 key pieces to their offense. I do think Boegarts and Betts will continue to get better, but will they be good enough to put the Sox offense ahead of the Jays?? I don’t think so.

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t have the time to totally break down the offenses right now, but I expect most of Toronto’s studs are on the wrong side of the aging curve and will likely ge significantly worse.

Paul Swydan: Well, you’re obviously entitled to that opinion, but the projections for Saunders, Travis and Pompey aren’t likely to be that robust because they haven’t played full seasons ever/lately. And Toronto has a lot of older players who are likely going to be projected to regress. Boston on the other hand has young guys like Bogaerts and Betts. The projections this year will include a full season for Blake Swihart, who was very good in the second half. And finally, Sandoval and Ramirez were SO BAD last year, that any positive regression in the projections is going to be a huge boon for them.

Adam: What is the point of a mutual option? Doesn’t a mutual option effectively always exist between each free agent and each MLB team at any given price?

Paul Swydan: Yeah, it seems mostly silly to me. It seems like the sort of thing that gets negotiated at the end of a deal just to appease the player.

Jeff Zimmerman: They are dumb and a waste of everyone’s time IMO.

Viva Los Metos: Should I keep: Ian Desmond $28 or Rusney Castillo $15 or Jose Peraza $8 or Brad Miller $1. Deep 14 team, keep 14, 24 guy rosters. Free agents 10 bucks…. thanks for being awesome.

Paul Swydan: I would probably say Miller. I can’t imagine Desmond being so much better than him that he’s worth $27 more.

Jeff Zimmerman: Correct on Miller. I may also take a stab at Peraza for $8.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Why do we put so much weight in these “projections” when we have seen them fail thousands of times. They clearly projected the red sox as the best team.. I’d understand if we saw them right, but a simple look at a depth chart and a players stat page can give you way more insight and proper perspective (a computer doesn’t a player struggled because he had a new contract and played through a bruised wrist).

Paul Swydan: Projections provide a good baseline from which to judge up or down. Are projections infallible? Obviously not. And last year was a particularly bad year for projection systems across the industry. But projections tell a good deal of the story, or at the very least help you frame a story. They’re one tool. Depth charts are another. Health and scouting reports are two others. There’s no one thing or voice that is gospel.

Jeff Zimmerman: First, it is dumb to really go all crazy about them right now with good amount of talent on the table. Also, the projection is a moving target which changes throughout the season. I like them starting barometer on how good teams are on paper.

Paul Swydan: As for why we put so much weight on them, obviously it’s because they stir discussion in the months when it’s super boring. We like talking about baseball, and they provide a great vessel for talking about the upcoming season. 🙂

John: What more would the Rockies have to add to a trade in order for a Jose Reyes and James Shields swap to work?

Paul Swydan: They’d probably need to send at least one good prospect, or eat most of the money in both deals, which the Rockies aren’t going to do.

Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing. I figured both teams would just do it because.

Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for delay.

Vic Romano: Generally speaking, what’s the maximum number of hitters from a single team you would have on your fantasy team? Someone could conceivably get Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber/Heyward all on a single roster, but is it wise to put all your eggs in one lineup?

Paul Swydan: I get uncomfortable at two, to be honest, and three is probably my max. Assuming a normal league size – one UTIL, 3 OFs, etc.

Paul Swydan: If it’s a deep league, the effect is muted. But I still would try to not have four.

Jeff Zimmerman: I never worry about it. Too much going on at the time. Just get the best player. I have noticed in a couple mocks I have done, I end up with 2-3 Indian pitchers.

Tim: Paul, There is a lot of talk around trading Freddie Freeman. Considering he is coming into his peak years and he had depressed numbers in 2015 due to injuries, wouldn’t it be wise to wait to maximize his value. I may be in the minority but I see him as a breakout candidate similar to Rizzo’s numbers.

Paul Swydan: I definitely don’t see him breaking out much beyond the level he is at now, but if I’m wrong, feel free to remind me how dumb I am in October. As for trading him, I don’t think there would be a reason to go to a Braves game in either of the next two seasons if they do.

Jeff Zimmerman: He is not getting traded IMO.

Floyd: Parra in Denver a $20 player in NL leagues? Seems like it but should go for less.

Paul Swydan: I don’t think he is that valuable, no.

Jeff Zimmerman: They need to make another trade first.

The Dude of NY: Punishment for Cardinals: Does a $2 mil fine (the maximum allowed under MLB Constitution) a forfeiture of the team’s 1st Round and 2 compensatory draft picks (tentatively 26th, 32nd and 33rd overall) along with some International Spending limits be an appropriate punishment, or too harsh?

Paul Swydan: The fine is whatever. No one cares. The real punishment is in the draft picks, and I don’t think what you’ve outlined is too harsh. I wouldn’t let them keep any picks in the first three rounds, to be perfectly honest with you, and they should also be disqualified from that little extra lottery of draft picks for the next 5 years or so.

Jeff Zimmerman: Max money, top 3 picks and money which goes with it. I am tempted to have the Astros get those picks.

The Dude of NY: Has Dexter Fowler’s market been more hurt by the glut of FA OFs or the QO attached to him?

Paul Swydan: I think by the glut of outfielders available more so than the comp pick, but the combination of the two basically makes Fowler kryptonite right now. At this point, he might not sign until February. I’ll be shocked if this QO system doesn’t get changed in the next CBA.

Jeff Zimmerman: QO – I think it needs to go or be $20 or more.

Daro: What if J Upton’s asking price drops to 105/5, do you see the Red Sox signing him and trading JBJ for pitching help moving Mookie to CF?

Paul Swydan: I absolutely could see this, though I’d be more on board with benching/trading Castillo and playing Upton-Bradley-Betts.

Paul Swydan: Castillo may be more of a fourth outfielder anyway.

Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure where Upton will end up right now. He seems impossible to get a read on.

Steve: Best leadoff option for the Blue Jays?

Paul Swydan: Tulo would be a great option. Conventionally speaking, it’d be Travis.

Jeff Zimmerman: One of the big four. I always look at this way. If it gets to the top of the lineup in the 9th inning, do you want Tulo or Travis up with the game on the line. Tulo is the easy choice.

Homer J. Fong: What do you expect from SWISH? Things seem a little more encouraging now than they did a week ago.

Jeff Zimmerman: Zero

Paul Swydan: Greatness, as usual. I haven’t listened to the leaked/released tracks because I like to listen to the album as a whole.

Johnny5Alive : Cameron kept saying all chat about “calm down mets fans, Lagasse is a fine staying outfielder. ” now I don’t disagree, but the current team isn’t projected to be very good. They need some upgrades. CF is theoretically a place they can do that. I mean that’s what we want. Sure, lageres is a good player, but the mets are a .500 team right now and will be lucky to make the playoffs again, no?

Paul Swydan: You’re not wrong, but there are no clear upgrades on the market over Lagares. Would I rather roll with Dexter Fowler? Probably. But the cost of acquiring Fowler won’t match the degree to which he would upgrade them, particularly given the Mets thriftiness.

Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with being a .500 team, but they are limited financially from making a huge splash.

Paul Swydan: Also, “being a .500 team that gets lucky” is more or less the strategy for playoff contention for a dozen teams. The Mets aren’t doing anything abnormal.

Paul Swydan: Celtics just took the lead, FYI.

Jon: Which team’s future is brighter, if u had to pick one. Rockies or Padres

Paul Swydan: Man, that’s tough. Let’s put it to a poll!

Jeff Zimmerman: Padres, I have no idea what the Rockies are doing. At least the Padres have had a plan the last couple of years.

Paul Swydan: I’m predisposed to say the Rockies, but I hold no conviction in that.

Kevin: Who out of Davis, Upton, or Cespesdes ends up taking the biggest discount to sign?

Paul Swydan: Unless Davis accepts the Orioles $150 million offer, I would say him. I was a little surprised the O’s offered him that much money to begin with.

Jeff Zimmerman: Davis, the other two will get their payday

Anthony: The Red Sox are starting Castillo and Jackie Bradley JR in the OF, they’re not exactly studs out there and who knows what you’re going to get from them. Mooks in their only legit major leaguer in the OF in my opinion. I guess that’s why they’re called projections…they probably aren’t going to come true.

Paul Swydan: Fair enough. I believe in JBJ, but I’m not sold on Castillo.

pepper: gotta be Padres as Colorado has never been able to construct a decent pitching staff and no reason to think they are remotely close to doing it now.

Jeff Zimmerman: I really wish the Rockies would go back to an all slugging lineup. At least be interesting.

vivalajeter : Kanye sucks. He’s no Eddie Vedder!

Paul Swydan: This comment delights me. I read recently that people stop listening to new music at the age of 36. For some I think it starts much earlier.

Jeff Zimmerman: Does “Let It Go” count as new music?

Paul Swydan: Well, it did two years ago…

Anthony: Saying that the Jays “aging” players are going to be “significantly” worse is a bit of a stretch. Perhaps marginally worse, but significantly seems like the wrong wording. I guess the Jays younger players like Travis, Pillar, Pompey will regress also? They won’t get any better? I just don’t understand the prediction. The Jays offense is miles ahead of the Red Sox right now. Sure, Sandoval and Hanley will be better…but how much better? That remains to be seen. I think 9/10 baseball fans/writers would take the Jays offense over the Red Sox offense as of right now. That’s why I don’t really understand the projections.

Paul Swydan: The fact that you’re expecting projections to conform to conventional wisdom strikes me as troubling. And no, I don’t expect Pillar or Pompey to get any better. Sorry.

Jeff Zimmerman: I am looking at projections. One issue for the Jays is 400 PA for Smoak

Rated Rookie: Most of my high school friends still listen to the same tired sludgy rock garbage that they listened to in the 90s. I would set the “I don’t listen to new music” line at 18.

Jeff Zimmerman: I could see that for some people

Paul Swydan: Well, that was what I was getting at. Possibly the most hilarious aspect of this is that most musicians continue to CREATE music well past the age of 36.

muzac: Favorite Common album?

Paul Swydan: With the caveat that I’ve never listened to “Resurrection” all the way through (I know, I know, it’s on the list), my favorite of his is “Like Water For Chocolate.”

Jimmy: Is it safe to think the Rockies will not get sufficient value for whichever OF they trade? More importantly, should they be tearing it all down for a shot at overcoming the dodgers in a few years?

Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s safe to say. If they trade Dickerson they will need to get a big package for him, because he’s controllable and cheap. And Blackmon has been pretty good in recent years. The Rockies don’t HAVE to trade him either. They need to wait and get this right.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, they need to start over at this point, but they really don’t have any great trade chips

Homer J. Fong: Favorite Bowie song?

Paul Swydan: Damn, that’s tough. I don’t know enough of his catalog to give a comprehensive answer, but it’d probably be “Under Pressure” or “Let’s Dance.”

Jeff Zimmerman: Not “Dancing in the Streets” with Mick Jagger.

pepper: Rodon, Giolito, Glasnnow. Long term/career. Any real difference in these guys? Rodon has edge in 2016 due to IP and seasoning last year, of course.

Paul Swydan: Well, one difference is that Giolito has already had Tommy John. Another is that Rodon has already graduated, so we have a bit better baseline on him.

Jeff Zimmerman: Giolito with career. Potential top 5 pitcher. Let me get some comps using his ’16 BA scouting grade

Nick: So the football rams are back in LA. Is there MLB realignment coming. Would you like to see it?

Paul Swydan: Yes, I would like to see both Florida teams moved. One to the Dominican and one to Brooklyn.

Paul Swydan: Pro sports in Florida simply don’t work, in my opinion.

Jeff Zimmerman: I am not as big on moving as adding a couple of teams. And the top comp to Giolito is Jose Fernandez

Paul Swydan: Yes, Jeff’s article on adding teams at THT a few months back was a great read.

Chuck: If you could have C. Seager or Lindor at SS for the next 10 years, who would you go with?

Paul Swydan: I would go with Lindor, because from what I have read he has the best chance of sticking at shortstop for a decade.

Jeff Zimmerman: Lindor for his overall game. I am not sold on his ’15 bat though. I expect some regression

The Goldenschmidt Ticket: 2nd guessing a trade i made: My Harper for his Odor, Conforto & McCullers, all would be keepers, roto, lots of categories – thoughts?

Jeff Zimmerman: Lindor

Paul Swydan: I think you don’t trade guys like Trout and Harper. I think the beta is high on all three of those prospects. If they all pan out, it might be an even trade, but I wouldn’t want to risk it. Sorry.

Inigo Montoya: Apparently Braves think Mallex Smith can be a similar player as Inciarte, which is one reason why they are open to moving Inciarte. Are they being a little too optimistic with those expectations of Mallex?

Jeff Zimmerman: You got taken, badly IMO

Paul Swydan: Well, they have the luxury of buying in on all of their prospects right now, because they’re not going to be good for 3 years anyway. Inciarte is good, but he’s not an irreplaceable player. If they can get good prospects for him now, there’s no reason not to move him.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes on Smith and Inciarte, I am not sure either can hit.

Jim: Christian Yelich or Gregory Polanco..who do you like for the next few years?

Paul Swydan: Leaning Polanco, but I like both.

Jeff Zimmerman: Think Yelich for fantasy, but like Polanco’s overall game for real life baseball

Bad Hermit: Don’t the Rockies have a top 5 farm system, while the Padres have a bottom 5 farm system?

Paul Swydan: That’s the argument for the Rockies, sure. The Padres have shown themselves to be more creative though, and more willing to make dynamic moves in free agency as well.

Jeff Zimmerman: When have the Rockies ever made a good move in the last 5 seasons?

Paul Swydan: That too.

Paul Swydan: In any case, I think that’s going to do it for us tonight. Thanks for hanging out, as always. We’ll see you next week!