2016 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta.

Batters
If the depth chart below seems to depict a more dismal situation than one might expect from a club that’s appeared in each of the last two World Series, note that it excludes at least one player (Alex Gordon) who’s been instrumental to the team’s recent success and another (Ben Zobrist) who benefited the 2015 edition of the club after arriving at the July trade deadline.

It’s not surprising, in light of Gordon and Zobrist’s respective departures, that corner outfield and second base are the team’s two weakest positions according to ZiPS. One assumes that the front office regards these as priorities for the offseason.

Pitchers
It’s not typical for a player to receive a projected WAR that would also represent his career-high mark by that measure. That’s the case here, though, for right-hander Yordano Ventura, whose 2.7-win mark in 2015 represented not only his personal best but also the best figure among all Royals pitchers. The 2.8 WAR projected for him in 2016 is also the highest among Kansas City pitchers.

With regard to the bullpen, most of 2015’s principals return. Wade Davis occupies a place among Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, and maybe a few others, as one of the league’s obviously elite relievers. Right-hander Kelvin Herrera is also markedly above average, although the loss of Greg Holland to injury — plus the departure of Ryan Madson — might create more difficulties here than those which recent iterations of the club have been forced to contend.

Bench/Prospects
If some combination of Jarrod Dyson, Jose Martinez, or Paulo Orlando fails — or if they all fail simultaneously — outfielder Reymond Fuentes would appear to be a possible candidate to provide value in the outfield. While he doesn’t possess the sort of power typically associated with a corner-outfield spot, he’s exhibited the precise combination of speed and defense that’s defined the Royals in recent years.

Among Kansas City’s rookie-eligible pitchers, left-hander Alec Mills receives the top WAR projection from ZiPS. Mills recorded strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 3.0% this year over 21 starts and 113.1 innings at High-A Wilmington.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Royals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Lorenzo Cain	R	30	CF	549	70	144	30	5	9	62	23	6
Salvador Perez	R	26	C	555	54	143	26	2	18	71	1	0
Alex Gordon	L	32	LF	589	68	134	29	2	16	62	7	4
Ben Zobrist	B	35	2B	560	74	135	35	4	12	55	7	4
Mike Moustakas	L	27	3B	577	58	134	30	1	19	66	2	2
Eric Hosmer	L	26	1B	653	82	170	34	3	16	83	9	3
Jarrod Dyson	L	31	CF	273	33	61	8	5	2	20	29	5
Alcides Escobar	R	29	SS	651	73	162	27	6	4	53	21	4
Kendrys Morales	B	33	DH	565	63	142	30	1	18	79	0	0
Reymond Fuentes	L	25	CF	477	54	111	17	4	6	41	24	5
Christian Colon	R	27	SS	434	44	106	16	1	5	33	11	4
Francisco Pena	R	26	C	364	37	81	17	1	8	39	2	2
Cheslor Cuthbert	R	23	3B	524	54	124	25	2	11	53	6	3
Jose Martinez	R	27	RF	404	43	104	19	2	6	39	5	4
Whit Merrifield	R	27	2B	531	53	122	26	4	5	41	17	7
Alex Rios	R	35	RF	490	54	126	27	5	7	51	16	4
Ramon Torres	B	23	2B	541	50	129	21	4	5	40	15	13
Brett Eibner	R	27	CF	430	44	85	17	3	11	40	6	2
Lane Adams	R	26	CF	530	53	111	22	3	10	45	20	6
Paulo Orlando	R	30	RF	441	43	102	17	4	6	37	12	4
Omar Infante	R	34	2B	488	44	117	22	5	5	50	5	2
Drew Butera	R	32	C	148	11	27	5	1	2	9	0	0
Angel Franco	B	26	2B	364	33	83	15	2	3	27	4	4
Raul Mondesi Jr.	B	20	SS	434	40	85	12	5	12	40	15	6
Orlando Calixte	R	24	SS	463	42	95	16	2	8	34	14	6
Parker Morin	L	24	C	261	21	52	9	2	3	20	1	2
Rafael Furcal	B	38	SS	58	6	13	1	0	0	3	1	0
Gabriel Noriega	R	25	3B	334	30	76	12	2	1	23	3	2
Jonny Gomes	R	35	LF	278	31	56	9	0	8	34	1	0
Bubba Starling	R	23	CF	483	48	94	20	3	11	42	8	4
J.C. Boscan	R	36	C	158	12	31	5	0	1	9	1	1
Dusty Coleman	R	29	SS	468	40	80	18	2	8	37	8	5
Ryan O’Hearn	L	22	1B	547	55	114	18	0	23	59	6	3
Terrance Gore	R	25	LF	348	33	64	5	1	0	14	32	5
Balbino Fuenmayor	R	26	1B	324	33	75	16	1	9	36	1	0
Hunter Dozier	R	24	3B	496	46	92	24	1	9	42	5	3
Jorge Bonifacio	R	23	RF	564	51	114	25	3	12	53	4	3
Alex Liddi	R	27	1B	461	44	93	21	3	10	44	5	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Lorenzo Cain	549	5.6%	18.4%	.132	.337	.284	.332	.416	.333
Salvador Perez	555	3.4%	13.9%	.159	.286	.271	.299	.430	.311
Alex Gordon	589	10.2%	21.4%	.158	.315	.261	.350	.419	.336
Ben Zobrist	560	10.9%	12.5%	.161	.297	.275	.354	.436	.344
Mike Moustakas	577	6.6%	15.1%	.170	.272	.256	.313	.426	.320
Eric Hosmer	653	8.1%	16.5%	.149	.326	.288	.347	.437	.340
Jarrod Dyson	273	7.0%	17.9%	.098	.303	.249	.307	.347	.311
Alcides Escobar	651	3.4%	12.4%	.084	.300	.266	.298	.350	.287
Kendrys Morales	565	7.6%	18.1%	.168	.312	.276	.336	.444	.335
Reymond Fuentes	477	6.5%	22.2%	.100	.328	.258	.313	.358	.303
Christian Colon	434	6.2%	10.6%	.083	.291	.268	.318	.351	.301
Francisco Pena	364	4.1%	18.4%	.126	.271	.238	.273	.364	.277
Cheslor Cuthbert	524	6.3%	16.6%	.127	.289	.255	.302	.382	.302
Jose Martinez	404	6.9%	17.1%	.111	.328	.280	.330	.391	.321
Whit Merrifield	531	4.9%	16.4%	.099	.288	.246	.287	.345	.285
Alex Rios	490	4.3%	16.5%	.125	.315	.273	.306	.398	.314
Ramon Torres	541	3.5%	13.1%	.088	.288	.255	.285	.343	.283
Brett Eibner	430	7.2%	30.7%	.143	.294	.216	.276	.359	.280
Lane Adams	530	6.0%	26.6%	.118	.295	.227	.278	.345	.285
Paulo Orlando	441	3.6%	18.6%	.103	.291	.246	.277	.349	.278
Omar Infante	488	3.5%	12.5%	.101	.279	.253	.278	.354	.275
Drew Butera	148	6.1%	22.3%	.098	.253	.203	.262	.301	.246
Angel Franco	364	4.9%	14.6%	.083	.285	.248	.287	.331	.271
Raul Mondesi Jr.	434	3.5%	32.0%	.143	.283	.209	.238	.352	.262
Orlando Calixte	463	5.2%	26.6%	.103	.291	.222	.265	.325	.266
Parker Morin	261	4.2%	26.4%	.091	.282	.214	.251	.305	.243
Rafael Furcal	58	5.2%	17.2%	.018	.289	.241	.276	.259	.243
Gabriel Noriega	334	2.4%	23.4%	.060	.314	.241	.260	.301	.245
Jonny Gomes	278	10.4%	28.1%	.137	.302	.232	.320	.369	.301
Bubba Starling	483	5.8%	31.3%	.132	.289	.211	.263	.343	.271
J.C. Boscan	158	5.1%	24.1%	.055	.275	.209	.255	.264	.235
Dusty Coleman	468	5.6%	39.7%	.107	.305	.187	.244	.294	.245
Ryan O’Hearn	547	6.9%	34.0%	.173	.304	.226	.280	.399	.295
Terrance Gore	348	6.3%	27.0%	.023	.292	.204	.270	.227	.249
Balbino Fuenmayor	324	2.5%	27.8%	.145	.308	.241	.265	.386	.280
Hunter Dozier	496	6.9%	30.8%	.116	.279	.201	.260	.317	.259
Jorge Bonifacio	564	5.7%	27.0%	.129	.281	.218	.266	.347	.271
Alex Liddi	461	4.6%	34.9%	.132	.313	.214	.253	.346	.263

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Lorenzo Cain	549	5.5	104	10	3.6	Roberto Kelly
Salvador Perez	555	4.8	97	3	3.2	Sandy Alomar
Alex Gordon	589	5.3	110	10	3.1	J.T. Snow
Ben Zobrist	560	5.7	115	-3	2.9	Bill Mueller
Mike Moustakas	577	4.8	100	3	2.5	Joe Crede
Eric Hosmer	653	5.8	113	2	2.1	Whitey Lockman
Jarrod Dyson	273	4.7	79	8	1.7	Dave Roberts
Alcides Escobar	651	4.1	77	2	1.6	Alfredo Griffin
Kendrys Morales	565	5.6	112	0	1.6	Kevin Millar
Reymond Fuentes	477	4.4	84	3	1.5	Herm Winningham
Christian Colon	434	4.2	84	-1	1.2	Jeff Keppinger
Francisco Pena	364	3.5	73	4	1.1	Joe Depastino
Cheslor Cuthbert	524	4.2	86	-2	0.9	Craig Worthington
Jose Martinez	404	4.8	97	0	0.7	Mike Brown
Whit Merrifield	531	3.6	73	3	0.5	Mel Houston
Alex Rios	490	4.7	91	-1	0.5	Pete Fox
Ramon Torres	541	3.3	71	4	0.2	Billy Ripken
Brett Eibner	430	3.5	72	0	0.2	Jason Michaels
Lane Adams	530	3.5	70	0	0.2	Tito Nanni
Paulo Orlando	441	3.6	70	8	0.2	Manny Martinez
Omar Infante	488	3.6	72	1	0.1	Craig Reynolds
Drew Butera	148	2.7	54	0	-0.1	Chad Moeller
Angel Franco	364	3.3	69	1	-0.1	Michael Cockrell
Raul Mondesi Jr.	434	2.9	59	-2	-0.4	Preston Mattingly
Orlando Calixte	463	3.0	61	-4	-0.4	Andres Duncan
Parker Morin	261	2.5	52	-2	-0.5	Tony Garcia
Rafael Furcal	58	2.7	48	-4	-0.5	Casey Candaele
Gabriel Noriega	334	2.7	53	2	-0.5	Freddie Benavides
Jonny Gomes	278	4.2	89	-7	-0.5	Jeff Manto
Bubba Starling	483	3.1	65	-3	-0.6	Hipolito Martinez
J.C. Boscan	158	2.2	43	-3	-0.6	Frank Charles
Dusty Coleman	468	2.3	47	2	-0.7	Cody Ransom
Ryan O’Hearn	547	3.9	83	-3	-0.8	Brad Pounders
Terrance Gore	348	2.8	39	4	-0.9	Ramon Gomez
Balbino Fuenmayor	324	3.7	76	-3	-1.0	Morgan Walker
Hunter Dozier	496	2.8	58	-3	-1.1	Lee Mitchell
Jorge Bonifacio	564	3.2	67	0	-1.3	Jonas Hamlin
Alex Liddi	461	3.0	62	-3	-2.0	Justin Sherrod

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Johnny Cueto	R	30	30	30	203.7	156	50	19	186	85	79
Yordano Ventura	R	25	30	29	175.0	164	63	17	163	77	72
Edinson Volquez	R	32	30	29	175.3	131	68	19	170	85	79
Danny Duffy	L	27	28	21	125.0	100	47	13	118	57	53
Wade Davis	R	30	66	0	66.0	84	23	4	48	18	17
Kelvin Herrera	R	26	72	0	72.0	77	25	5	59	25	23
Greg Holland	R	30	56	0	52.3	70	21	4	38	16	15
Chris Young	R	37	25	20	110.7	73	41	15	105	56	52
Alec Mills	R	24	20	20	96.7	66	20	11	105	49	46
Jason Vargas	L	33	19	19	112.0	72	28	17	118	60	56
Kris Medlen	R	30	21	17	109.0	76	28	15	118	59	55
Buddy Baumann	L	28	35	6	73.3	60	28	7	71	35	33
Kyle Zimmer	R	24	20	8	56.3	47	20	7	57	30	28
Luke Hochevar	R	32	41	0	45.3	43	15	6	41	20	19
Ryan Madson	R	35	32	0	29.7	29	8	3	27	13	12
Louis Coleman	R	30	48	0	66.3	59	27	7	62	31	29
Jonathan Dziedzic	L	25	22	21	106.7	63	36	14	120	62	58
Brian Flynn	L	26	16	15	85.7	55	33	10	95	49	46
Yohan Pino	R	32	25	16	103.0	77	30	16	110	59	55
Jeremy Guthrie	R	37	25	23	143.3	81	40	20	163	83	78
Franklin Morales	L	30	66	0	67.7	50	23	7	68	33	31
Tim Collins	L	26	45	0	47.0	45	22	5	44	24	22
Troy Patton	L	30	30	0	33.0	25	10	4	34	17	16
Brian Broderick	R	29	42	0	59.0	34	17	6	64	30	28
Christian Binford	R	23	24	22	126.7	71	35	18	147	77	72
Benino Pruneda	R	27	36	0	45.3	35	24	4	45	25	23
Scott Alexander	L	26	45	0	66.3	45	28	7	68	35	33
Casey Coleman	R	28	37	4	78.0	46	37	8	84	45	42
Clayton Mortensen	R	31	24	13	83.3	57	43	11	88	51	48
Chris Dwyer	L	28	30	12	92.3	57	55	10	98	57	53
Sam Selman	L	25	35	11	81.0	64	59	9	81	49	46
Miguel Almonte	R	23	31	22	104.0	79	43	17	112	65	61
Andy Ferguson	R	27	26	19	109.3	80	39	20	119	68	64
Matthew Strahm	L	24	22	7	59.3	60	28	12	60	39	36
J.C. Sulbaran	R	26	28	19	105.3	66	61	29	132	94	88

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Johnny Cueto	203.7	847	18.4%	5.9%	.272	3.49	3.64	86	92
Yordano Ventura	175.0	751	21.8%	8.4%	.292	3.70	3.68	91	93
Edinson Volquez	175.3	764	17.1%	8.9%	.282	4.06	4.29	100	108
Danny Duffy	125.0	540	18.5%	8.7%	.281	3.82	4.11	94	103
Wade Davis	66.0	269	31.2%	8.6%	.280	2.32	2.39	57	60
Kelvin Herrera	72.0	300	25.7%	8.3%	.284	2.87	2.99	71	75
Greg Holland	52.3	216	32.4%	9.7%	.281	2.58	2.57	64	65
Chris Young	110.7	478	15.3%	8.6%	.259	4.23	4.63	104	117
Alec Mills	96.7	415	15.9%	4.8%	.300	4.28	4.00	106	101
Jason Vargas	112.0	482	14.9%	5.8%	.279	4.50	4.60	111	116
Kris Medlen	109.0	473	16.1%	5.9%	.294	4.54	4.38	112	110
Buddy Baumann	73.3	319	18.8%	8.8%	.291	4.05	3.94	100	99
Kyle Zimmer	56.3	246	19.1%	8.1%	.296	4.47	4.28	110	108
Luke Hochevar	45.3	192	22.4%	7.8%	.276	3.77	3.92	93	99
Ryan Madson	29.7	124	23.4%	6.4%	.289	3.64	3.27	90	82
Louis Coleman	66.3	288	20.5%	9.4%	.287	3.93	3.92	97	99
Jonathan Dziedzic	106.7	476	13.2%	7.6%	.297	4.89	4.81	121	121
Brian Flynn	85.7	385	14.3%	8.6%	.300	4.83	4.60	119	116
Yohan Pino	103.0	449	17.1%	6.7%	.293	4.81	4.65	119	117
Jeremy Guthrie	143.3	633	12.8%	6.3%	.296	4.90	4.77	121	120
Franklin Morales	67.7	294	17.0%	7.8%	.290	4.12	4.12	102	104
Tim Collins	47.0	207	21.7%	10.6%	.293	4.21	3.98	104	100
Troy Patton	33.0	143	17.5%	7.0%	.291	4.36	4.08	108	103
Brian Broderick	59.0	258	13.2%	6.6%	.293	4.27	4.19	105	105
Christian Binford	126.7	562	12.6%	6.2%	.299	5.12	4.78	126	120
Benino Pruneda	45.3	205	17.1%	11.7%	.293	4.57	4.30	113	108
Scott Alexander	66.3	295	15.3%	9.5%	.289	4.48	4.52	111	114
Casey Coleman	78.0	355	13.0%	10.4%	.292	4.85	4.80	120	121
Clayton Mortensen	83.3	381	15.0%	11.3%	.291	5.18	5.15	128	130
Chris Dwyer	92.3	430	13.3%	12.8%	.291	5.17	5.23	128	132
Sam Selman	81.0	383	16.7%	15.4%	.293	5.11	5.34	126	134
Miguel Almonte	104.0	467	16.9%	9.2%	.295	5.28	5.12	130	129
Andy Ferguson	109.3	486	16.5%	8.0%	.291	5.27	5.26	130	132
Matthew Strahm	59.3	266	22.6%	10.5%	.296	5.46	5.33	135	134
J.C. Sulbaran	105.3	509	13.0%	12.0%	.298	7.52	7.37	186	185

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Johnny Cueto	203.7	6.89	2.21	0.84	115	3.8	Tim Hudson
Yordano Ventura	175.0	8.43	3.24	0.87	109	2.8	Mike Bielecki
Edinson Volquez	175.3	6.73	3.49	0.98	99	2.1	Omar Olivares
Danny Duffy	125.0	7.20	3.38	0.94	105	1.8	Trevor Wilson
Wade Davis	66.0	11.45	3.14	0.55	174	1.5	Francisco Cordero
Kelvin Herrera	72.0	9.63	3.13	0.63	140	1.2	Bryan Harvey
Greg Holland	52.3	12.05	3.61	0.69	156	1.0	Ryne Duren
Chris Young	110.7	5.93	3.33	1.22	95	1.0	Bob Forsch
Alec Mills	96.7	6.14	1.86	1.02	94	0.8	Gil Heredia
Jason Vargas	112.0	5.79	2.25	1.37	89	0.7	Blaine Beatty
Kris Medlen	109.0	6.28	2.31	1.24	89	0.5	Geoff Grenert
Buddy Baumann	73.3	7.37	3.44	0.86	99	0.5	Matt Dunbar
Kyle Zimmer	56.3	7.51	3.20	1.12	90	0.2	David Cone
Luke Hochevar	45.3	8.54	2.98	1.19	107	0.1	Mark Wohlers
Ryan Madson	29.7	8.79	2.42	0.91	111	0.1	Donn Pall
Louis Coleman	66.3	8.01	3.67	0.95	102	0.1	David Lee
Jonathan Dziedzic	106.7	5.31	3.04	1.18	82	0.1	Marty Reed
Brian Flynn	85.7	5.78	3.47	1.05	83	0.1	John Courtright
Yohan Pino	103.0	6.73	2.62	1.40	84	0.1	Nerio Rodriguez
Jeremy Guthrie	143.3	5.09	2.51	1.26	82	0.1	Dennis Springer
Franklin Morales	67.7	6.65	3.06	0.93	98	0.0	Todd Rizzo
Tim Collins	47.0	8.62	4.21	0.96	96	-0.1	Thomas Hart
Troy Patton	33.0	6.82	2.73	1.09	92	-0.1	Bryan Eversgerd
Brian Broderick	59.0	5.19	2.59	0.92	94	-0.2	Scott Rose
Christian Binford	126.7	5.04	2.49	1.28	79	-0.3	Jason Jones
Benino Pruneda	45.3	6.95	4.77	0.79	88	-0.3	Ken Wright
Scott Alexander	66.3	6.11	3.80	0.95	90	-0.3	Brian Adams
Casey Coleman	78.0	5.31	4.27	0.92	83	-0.3	Mike Bumstead
Clayton Mortensen	83.3	6.16	4.65	1.19	78	-0.3	Jarod Juelsgaard
Chris Dwyer	92.3	5.56	5.36	0.98	78	-0.4	Eddie Oropesa
Sam Selman	81.0	7.11	6.56	1.00	79	-0.4	Miguel Asencio
Miguel Almonte	104.0	6.84	3.72	1.47	76	-0.4	Bryan Corey
Andy Ferguson	109.3	6.59	3.21	1.65	76	-0.5	Giovanni Carrara
Matthew Strahm	59.3	9.11	4.25	1.82	74	-0.5	Angel Ortiz
J.C. Sulbaran	105.3	5.64	5.21	2.48	54	-3.5	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.95 ERA and the NL having a 3.79 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.