2016 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
It represents an instance of damning with faint praise to observe that, in 2015, Milwaukee batters outproduced Bryce Harper by roughly a win. On the one hand, that’s better than not outproducing Bryce Harper. On the other, the phrase “Milwaukee batters” denotes a group of professional ballplayers, while “Bryce Harper” is just one person by himself. In light of how baseball works, a group of players should basically always outperform a single guy.

A brief inspection of the projections for Milwaukee suggests that, while the 2016 campaign is unlikely to yield wild success, there’s also less of a chance that the entire club will find itself contending with a 22-year-old outfielder for supremacy of the WAR leaderboards. Apart from whatever value he provides from pitch-framing, catcher Jonathan Lucroy (481 PA, 3.3 zWAR) is forecast to supply enough offensive and (more traditional) defensive value to record an above-average line, while Ryan Braun (582 PA, 2.7 zWAR) and relative newcomer Domingo Santana (570 PA, 2.5 zWAR) receive solid-average projections. Again, it’s not an overwhelming collection of talent. Between the deep depth, however, and the possibility of some useful platoons, the Brewers have a chance of skewing towards the direction of average.

Pitchers
The reader should note that, in the depth-chart graphic below, the club’s starting pitchers are arranged not in the order they’re likely to be deployed by manager Craig Counsell, but by projected WAR. Curiously, the two are almost mirror images of each other. Right-hander Taylor Jungmann (161.2 IP, 2.4 zWAR), for example, is the club’s ace by the first methodology and No. 4 starter by the latter. Wily Peralta (149.2 IP, 0.9 zWAR), meanwhile, is both the team’s probable opening-day starter and also (by the projections) unworthy of a spot in the rotation.

As for the bullpen, the departure of Francisco Rodriguez has created some uncertainty as to who might assume closing duties. Right-handers Jeremy Jeffress (62.2 IP, 0.7 zWAR) and Corey Knebel (63.0 IP, 0.7 zWAR) are both candidates. By the projections, however, left-hander Will Smith (70.2 IP, 1.0 zWAR) would appear to be the optimal choice. While perhaps regarded as a mere LOOGY in past years, Smith seems capable of handling all types of hitters these days. Consider: in 2015, Smith recorded a nearly identical fielding-independent mark against right-handed hitters (2.87 xFIP) as left-handed ones (2.59 xFIP).

Bench/Prospects
Due in no small part to the influence of new general manager David Stearns, Milwaukee enters the 2016 season with an impressive array of depth pieces. No, he didn’t draft or develop Orlando Arcia (579 PA, 2.3 zWAR), who’s apparently an average major-leaguer already, but he did acquire the quadrumvirate of Keon Broxton (496 PA, 1.1 zWAR), Garin Cecchini (508 PA, 1.0 zWAR), Ramon Flores (449 PA, 1.0 zWAR), and Rymer Liriano (515 PA, 1.1 zWAR) — all of whom profile as useful bench-types — for basically nothing. Among pitchers, the effect is less pronounced; however, Zachary Davies (141.0 IP, 1.9 zWAR), who’s expected to begin the season as a minor-leaguer, is well-acquitted by Dan Szymborski’s dumb computer.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

***

***

***

***

***

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.