2016 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
There’s always the sense, given the organization’s record of innovation and willingness to reconstruct its roster, that the A’s are likely to succeed then most when mediocrity appears to be the only possible outcome. If that sense is correct, then Oakland is likely to succeed very hard in 2016 — because the club, as presently constructed, is not well-acquitted by the projections.

Consider the following table, a version of which appears in the glossary entry for WAR and which provides a rough characterization for various WAR ranges:

WAR Figures in Context

Category	WAR
Scrub	0-1
Role Player	1-2
Solid Starter	2-3
Good Player	3-4
All-Star	4-5
Superstar	5-6
MVP	6+

By this rough taxonomy, Oakland currently employs only two batters classified as “solid starters” (Josh Reddick, Marcus Semien) and a third (Billy Burns) who profiles as precisely average. That triumvirate represents the exact sort of cost-controlled core a team like Oakland requires to win. Unfortunately, they’re surrounded not by stars, but role players.

It’s difficult, while examining the modest projections here, not also to consider for a moment the distinctly less modest one produced by ZiPS for Josh Donaldson. Last year’s American League MVP is expected to record more than six wins in 2016, at the cost of about $11.5 million. One needn’t be employed — or even have any training — as a rocket scientist to recognize what a benefit Donaldson would be to this club.

Pitchers
Fortunately for Oakland, the rotation offers a brighter spot in the form of right-hander Sonny Gray. In nearly 430 innings over the last two seasons, Gray has recorded a 6.9 WAR as calculated with FIP and an even better 10.0 WAR as calculated with runs allowed. Dan Szymborski’s computer appears to regard the latter methodology as more representative of Gray’s true talent: the 4.9 zWAR for which the 26-year-old is forecast represents basically just the average of his past two years.

After Gray, the returns are less impressive, as no other starter is projected to reach even the two-win threshold. Unsurprisingly, Szymborski’s model isn’t overwhelmed by Rich Hill’s four-start renaissance with Boston last year, although that’s also a product of playing time: the left-hander does profile as roughly average (84.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) if prorated out to 200 innings.

Bench/Prospects
Oakland has some high-end talent in its system, but it’s mostly low-ceiling high-minors guys like 26-year-old Jake Smolinski (406 PA, 1.0 zWAR) and 25-year-old Joey Wendle (505 PA, 0.9 zWAR) who appear ready to help the team in the near future. Success at Double-A might lead to a late-season promotion of third baseman Matt Chapman (328 PA, 0.9 zWAR). Among pitchers, former Cape League standout and Royals draftee Sean Manaea (113.1 IP, 1.1 zWAR) actually receives one of the top projections on the club. He was acquired at last year’s deadline in exchange for Ben Zobrist.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Oaklands, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Marcus Semien	R	25	SS	618	73	136	27	6	15	60	12	4
Josh Reddick	L	29	RF	516	61	120	23	4	17	67	8	2
Billy Burns	B	26	CF	599	68	145	19	7	3	41	35	7
Stephen Vogt	L	31	C	446	46	102	18	3	13	53	1	1
Josh Phegley	R	28	C	377	43	82	21	2	9	49	1	1
Danny Valencia	R	31	3B	384	44	94	22	2	12	53	2	2
Jed Lowrie	B	32	2B	423	47	94	23	1	9	44	1	0
Jake Smolinski	R	27	LF	406	48	88	20	2	11	45	4	2
Joey Wendle	L	26	2B	505	52	112	26	4	9	50	6	2
Billy Butler	R	30	DH	604	59	143	28	1	14	72	0	0
Coco Crisp	B	36	LF	346	43	76	14	2	7	31	11	2
Matt Chapman	R	23	3B	328	35	66	15	2	8	31	3	1
Josh Rodriguez	R	31	3B	484	52	98	19	2	10	46	6	3
Yonder Alonso	L	29	1B	406	45	98	19	1	6	42	4	3
Jason Pridie	L	32	CF	470	48	102	17	4	12	46	12	3
Ryan Roberts	R	35	3B	383	38	85	19	1	8	38	2	4
Sam Fuld	L	34	CF	283	30	55	11	3	3	23	10	3
Brent Morel	R	29	3B	443	44	95	23	2	8	46	7	3
Eric Sogard	L	30	2B	370	38	83	13	2	2	32	7	3
Renato Nunez	R	22	3B	503	53	111	21	1	15	52	1	0
Mark Canha	R	27	1B	506	61	113	24	2	13	62	5	2
Franklin Barreto	R	20	SS	402	42	92	18	2	8	40	12	5
Andrew Lambo	L	27	RF	236	28	50	11	1	9	16	2	1
Carson Blair	R	26	C	305	29	50	11	2	8	27	1	0
Ike Davis	L	29	1B	372	36	72	19	0	10	40	1	1
Matt Olson	L	22	1B	607	66	108	28	0	17	58	3	1
Tyler Ladendorf	R	28	SS	251	23	48	9	2	3	19	1	1
Chad Pinder	R	24	SS	435	41	92	19	2	9	39	5	5
Cody Ross	R	35	RF	195	17	42	8	0	4	60	1	1
Matt McBride	R	31	1B	321	32	75	18	1	8	31	2	1
Danny Oh	L	26	LF	290	25	60	12	2	1	18	5	3
Bryan Anderson	L	29	C	304	28	57	13	1	5	26	1	0
Bruce Maxwell	L	25	C	398	33	80	15	0	3	28	0	1
Rangel Ravelo	R	24	1B	399	41	88	20	2	6	39	4	3
Matt Carson	R	34	RF	305	31	61	11	1	5	27	6	2
Jaycob Brugman	L	24	LF	468	41	93	18	5	6	40	6	5
Matt Angle	L	30	LF	294	26	54	8	2	2	18	8	2
Alex Glenn	L	25	LF	444	42	88	17	4	8	41	8	3
Max Muncy	L	25	1B	473	48	91	21	2	8	41	2	2
Kent Matthes	R	29	RF	346	30	68	20	2	7	34	6	1
Ryon Healy	R	24	3B	508	47	116	21	1	9	45	0	1
Anthony Aliotti	L	28	1B	474	42	91	19	0	6	36	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Marcus Semien	618	8.6%	21.5%	.150	.294	.244	.312	.394	.314
Josh Reddick	516	8.5%	15.5%	.176	.276	.257	.320	.433	.329
Billy Burns	599	6.5%	16.0%	.077	.316	.265	.320	.342	.306
Stephen Vogt	446	8.5%	17.3%	.157	.282	.254	.317	.411	.313
Josh Phegley	377	4.5%	18.0%	.149	.264	.234	.277	.383	.287
Danny Valencia	384	5.7%	20.3%	.173	.303	.263	.305	.436	.320
Jed Lowrie	423	8.5%	14.7%	.137	.272	.247	.315	.384	.301
Jake Smolinski	406	8.1%	19.7%	.157	.279	.242	.313	.399	.315
Joey Wendle	505	4.0%	21.2%	.129	.285	.237	.274	.366	.280
Billy Butler	604	8.6%	16.2%	.133	.297	.264	.331	.397	.313
Coco Crisp	346	9.8%	13.3%	.126	.267	.247	.319	.373	.311
Matt Chapman	328	6.4%	25.3%	.143	.274	.219	.277	.362	.283
Josh Rodriguez	484	7.9%	25.2%	.121	.284	.223	.288	.344	.282
Yonder Alonso	406	8.6%	12.1%	.107	.293	.268	.333	.375	.310
Jason Pridie	470	6.4%	23.0%	.141	.284	.235	.286	.376	.293
Ryan Roberts	383	7.0%	17.5%	.128	.276	.242	.296	.370	.294
Sam Fuld	283	9.2%	16.3%	.103	.255	.218	.293	.321	.280
Brent Morel	443	5.6%	23.9%	.124	.290	.231	.278	.355	.281
Eric Sogard	370	6.5%	11.9%	.068	.276	.246	.298	.314	.275
Renato Nunez	503	4.4%	22.5%	.144	.277	.235	.276	.379	.284
Mark Canha	506	7.5%	22.7%	.148	.302	.248	.315	.396	.314
Franklin Barreto	402	4.0%	22.9%	.122	.300	.245	.282	.367	.293
Andrew Lambo	236	6.8%	27.1%	.186	.285	.231	.289	.417	.305
Carson Blair	305	9.5%	39.3%	.143	.288	.184	.266	.327	.264
Ike Davis	372	12.1%	21.2%	.151	.261	.222	.315	.373	.303
Matt Olson	607	11.7%	29.5%	.150	.272	.205	.303	.355	.291
Tyler Ladendorf	251	6.8%	22.3%	.096	.263	.211	.272	.307	.259
Chad Pinder	435	3.7%	27.1%	.123	.292	.225	.263	.348	.272
Cody Ross	195	7.2%	19.5%	.112	.275	.236	.292	.348	.285
Matt McBride	321	4.4%	14.6%	.146	.269	.249	.287	.395	.298
Danny Oh	290	6.6%	20.7%	.071	.286	.226	.284	.297	.264
Bryan Anderson	304	6.9%	28.0%	.108	.274	.205	.264	.313	.256
Bruce Maxwell	398	6.8%	21.4%	.065	.274	.218	.272	.283	.248
Rangel Ravelo	399	7.0%	19.5%	.116	.291	.243	.302	.359	.293
Matt Carson	305	5.6%	27.5%	.100	.292	.219	.274	.319	.266
Jaycob Brugman	468	6.6%	25.4%	.106	.281	.215	.269	.321	.268
Matt Angle	294	7.5%	26.9%	.068	.281	.205	.271	.273	.252
Alex Glenn	444	5.2%	27.5%	.118	.279	.212	.259	.330	.263
Max Muncy	473	9.7%	24.5%	.116	.276	.217	.294	.333	.280
Kent Matthes	346	4.6%	27.5%	.139	.272	.209	.252	.348	.264
Ryon Healy	508	3.3%	18.9%	.103	.279	.239	.264	.342	.264
Anthony Aliotti	474	8.2%	31.2%	.086	.307	.213	.280	.299	.257

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Marcus Semien	618	4.5	96	-4	2.4	Jay Bell
Josh Reddick	516	5.1	108	6	2.4	Trot Nixon
Billy Burns	599	4.4	86	2	2.0	Milt Cuyler
Stephen Vogt	446	4.7	102	-6	1.9	Johnny Roseboro
Josh Phegley	377	3.7	82	2	1.5	Chris Widger
Danny Valencia	384	4.8	104	-3	1.3	Sean Berry
Jed Lowrie	423	4.4	95	-2	1.1	Jim Lefebvre
Jake Smolinski	406	4.5	98	2	1.0	Phil Lombardi
Joey Wendle	505	3.6	77	4	0.9	Ivanon Coffie
Billy Butler	604	4.8	103	0	0.9	Brook Jacoby
Coco Crisp	346	4.5	93	2	0.9	Gary Matthews Jr.
Matt Chapman	328	3.5	77	4	0.9	George Arias
Josh Rodriguez	484	3.4	76	3	0.8	Shanie Dugas
Yonder Alonso	406	4.6	98	4	0.7	Bruce Bochte
Jason Pridie	470	3.9	83	-3	0.6	Damon Buford
Ryan Roberts	383	3.7	85	0	0.6	Tim Wallach
Sam Fuld	283	3.4	72	3	0.5	Eddie Milner
Brent Morel	443	3.5	76	1	0.5	Adam Pavkovich
Eric Sogard	370	3.4	72	2	0.3	Casey Candaele
Renato Nunez	503	3.7	81	-4	0.3	Casey Webster
Mark Canha	506	4.5	98	-2	0.3	Adam Piatt
Franklin Barreto	402	3.8	80	-6	0.2	Edwin Encarnacion
Andrew Lambo	236	4.2	95	-3	0.1	Brent Cookson
Carson Blair	305	2.9	65	-4	0.0	Steve Lomasney
Ike Davis	372	4.1	92	-1	0.0	Mark Johnson
Matt Olson	607	3.7	84	2	-0.1	Dernell Stenson
Tyler Ladendorf	251	2.8	62	-2	-0.2	Keith Johns
Chad Pinder	435	3.1	69	-4	-0.2	Craig Paquette
Cody Ross	195	3.5	79	-1	-0.2	Dusty Wathan
Matt McBride	321	4.1	89	-2	-0.3	Dan Rohrmeier
Danny Oh	290	2.9	63	4	-0.3	Cliff Gonzalez
Bryan Anderson	304	2.8	61	-6	-0.4	Tom Nieto
Bruce Maxwell	398	2.6	56	-4	-0.4	Lance Jennings
Rangel Ravelo	399	3.8	84	-1	-0.4	Chris Nowak
Matt Carson	305	3.1	66	0	-0.6	Dann Howitt
Jaycob Brugman	468	2.9	65	5	-0.7	B.J. Barns
Matt Angle	294	2.7	53	2	-0.7	Mike Murphy
Alex Glenn	444	3.0	64	3	-0.8	Victor Mendez
Max Muncy	473	3.3	75	1	-0.8	Kevin Burford
Kent Matthes	346	3.1	66	-1	-0.8	Mike Beams
Ryon Healy	508	3.2	68	-7	-1.0	Christopher Johnson
Anthony Aliotti	474	2.8	63	1	-1.5	Tate Seefried

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Sonny Gray	R	26	32	32	211.0	179	65	17	184	80	75
Chris Bassitt	R	27	24	20	124.3	96	45	10	121	58	54
Jesse Hahn	R	26	22	20	105.7	73	37	9	104	51	48
Sean Manaea	L	24	24	23	113.3	102	46	13	108	57	53
Kendall Graveman	R	25	27	25	141.3	88	43	15	149	73	68
Henderson Alvarez	R	26	17	17	100.3	55	23	9	108	49	46
Liam Hendriks	R	27	57	0	65.7	67	12	5	58	22	21
Rich Hill	L	36	16	16	84.0	81	44	9	77	43	40
Felix Doubront	L	28	25	20	117.7	93	47	13	119	62	58
Sean Doolittle	L	29	46	0	44.7	53	9	5	37	16	15
Jarrod Parker	R	27	15	15	93.0	62	32	12	95	50	47
Chris Smith	R	35	18	15	86.3	71	31	12	86	46	43
Dillon Overton	L	24	22	21	88.7	61	24	12	94	48	45
Ryan Madson	R	35	32	0	29.7	29	9	3	27	12	11
Ryan Dull	R	26	52	0	65.7	62	20	8	61	30	28
Fernando Rodriguez	R	32	49	0	54.0	54	23	6	48	25	23
Sean Nolin	L	26	21	19	88.0	64	36	12	92	50	47
Marc Rzepczynski	L	30	70	0	47.0	43	19	4	45	21	20
Aaron Brooks	R	26	28	25	149.0	95	32	21	171	87	81
Bobby Wahl	R	24	26	0	35.0	32	15	4	33	17	16
John Axford	R	33	60	0	54.7	58	30	6	50	27	25
Aaron Kurcz	R	25	42	0	55.0	56	32	6	50	28	26
R.J. Alvarez	R	25	50	0	54.7	57	28	6	50	28	26
Eric Surkamp	L	28	32	14	100.3	76	32	15	106	58	54
Raul Alcantara	R	23	17	17	61.0	26	19	8	70	37	35
Angel Castro	R	33	32	10	80.7	49	30	11	88	47	44
Patrick Schuster	L	25	57	0	48.0	36	24	5	48	26	24
Ryan Brasier	R	28	30	0	37.3	26	15	4	39	20	19
Taylor Thompson	R	29	31	0	43.0	33	21	5	44	24	22
Daniel Coulombe	L	26	54	0	61.7	57	39	6	58	33	31
Kevin Whelan	R	32	25	0	27.0	27	18	5	27	18	17
J.B. Wendelken	R	23	53	0	67.0	58	20	10	69	37	35
Eduard Santos	R	26	43	0	56.3	55	32	8	54	32	30
Barry Zito	L	38	19	16	93.3	52	48	14	103	62	58
Zach Neal	R	27	26	25	150.3	77	37	27	176	98	92
Nate Long	R	30	27	18	114.3	75	54	21	127	78	73

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Sonny Gray	211.0	882	20.3%	7.4%	.271	3.20	3.44	82	87
Chris Bassitt	124.3	539	17.8%	8.4%	.294	3.91	3.91	100	99
Jesse Hahn	105.7	458	15.9%	8.1%	.286	4.09	4.05	105	103
Sean Manaea	113.3	494	20.7%	9.3%	.290	4.21	4.15	108	105
Kendall Graveman	141.3	616	14.3%	7.0%	.289	4.33	4.30	111	109
Henderson Alvarez	100.3	432	12.7%	5.3%	.291	4.13	3.95	106	101
Liam Hendriks	65.7	267	25.1%	4.5%	.294	2.88	2.69	74	69
Rich Hill	84.0	373	21.7%	11.8%	.291	4.29	4.25	110	108
Felix Doubront	117.7	519	17.9%	9.1%	.292	4.44	4.24	114	108
Sean Doolittle	44.7	180	29.4%	5.0%	.283	3.02	2.73	78	69
Jarrod Parker	93.0	406	15.3%	7.9%	.280	4.55	4.58	117	116
Chris Smith	86.3	376	18.9%	8.2%	.287	4.48	4.45	115	113
Dillon Overton	88.7	384	15.9%	6.2%	.291	4.57	4.47	117	114
Ryan Madson	29.7	125	23.2%	7.2%	.289	3.34	3.38	86	86
Ryan Dull	65.7	278	22.3%	7.2%	.286	3.84	3.71	99	94
Fernando Rodriguez	54.0	233	23.2%	9.9%	.284	3.83	3.88	98	99
Sean Nolin	88.0	392	16.3%	9.2%	.289	4.81	4.75	124	121
Marc Rzepczynski	47.0	205	21.0%	9.3%	.304	3.83	3.60	98	91
Aaron Brooks	149.0	650	14.6%	4.9%	.304	4.89	4.45	126	113
Bobby Wahl	35.0	153	20.9%	9.8%	.290	4.11	4.13	106	105
John Axford	54.7	244	23.8%	12.3%	.295	4.12	3.95	106	100
Aaron Kurcz	55.0	247	22.7%	13.0%	.293	4.25	4.34	109	110
R.J. Alvarez	54.7	242	23.5%	11.6%	.297	4.28	4.04	110	103
Eric Surkamp	100.3	439	17.3%	7.3%	.294	4.84	4.64	124	118
Raul Alcantara	61.0	272	9.6%	7.0%	.288	5.16	5.09	133	129
Angel Castro	80.7	360	13.6%	8.3%	.289	4.91	4.89	126	124
Patrick Schuster	48.0	216	16.7%	11.1%	.291	4.50	4.58	116	117
Ryan Brasier	37.3	166	15.7%	9.0%	.294	4.58	4.47	118	114
Taylor Thompson	43.0	194	17.0%	10.8%	.295	4.60	4.76	118	121
Daniel Coulombe	61.7	282	20.2%	13.8%	.294	4.52	4.47	116	114
Kevin Whelan	27.0	126	21.4%	14.3%	.297	5.67	5.62	146	143
J.B. Wendelken	67.0	290	20.0%	6.9%	.298	4.70	4.39	121	112
Eduard Santos	56.3	255	21.6%	12.6%	.293	4.79	4.81	123	122
Barry Zito	93.3	431	12.1%	11.1%	.284	5.59	5.58	144	142
Zach Neal	150.3	664	11.6%	5.6%	.290	5.51	5.31	142	135
Nate Long	114.3	524	14.3%	10.3%	.289	5.75	5.73	148	146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Sonny Gray	211.0	7.64	2.77	0.73	121	4.9	Ramon Martinez
Chris Bassitt	124.3	6.95	3.26	0.72	99	1.7	Chris Hook
Jesse Hahn	105.7	6.22	3.15	0.77	94	1.2	Ed Wojna
Sean Manaea	113.3	8.10	3.65	1.03	92	1.1	Jorge de la Rosa
Kendall Graveman	141.3	5.61	2.74	0.96	89	1.1	Don Welchel
Henderson Alvarez	100.3	4.94	2.06	0.81	94	1.0	Ron Reed
Liam Hendriks	65.7	9.18	1.64	0.68	134	1.0	Chad Bradford
Rich Hill	84.0	8.68	4.71	0.96	90	0.8	Doug Davis
Felix Doubront	117.7	7.11	3.59	0.99	87	0.7	Anthony Moreno
Sean Doolittle	44.7	10.67	1.81	1.01	128	0.7	George Sherrill
Jarrod Parker	93.0	6.00	3.10	1.16	85	0.5	Travis Smith
Chris Smith	86.3	7.40	3.23	1.25	86	0.4	Richie Lewis
Dillon Overton	88.7	6.19	2.44	1.22	85	0.4	Travis Baptist
Ryan Madson	29.7	8.79	2.73	0.91	116	0.3	Donn Pall
Ryan Dull	65.7	8.49	2.74	1.10	101	0.3	Mike Adams
Fernando Rodriguez	54.0	9.00	3.83	1.00	101	0.2	Reggie Harris
Sean Nolin	88.0	6.55	3.68	1.23	80	0.1	Sherman Corbett
Marc Rzepczynski	47.0	8.23	3.64	0.77	101	0.1	Mike Kinnunen
Aaron Brooks	149.0	5.74	1.93	1.27	79	0.1	Andrew Baldwin
Bobby Wahl	35.0	8.23	3.86	1.03	94	0.0	Jermaine Van Buren
John Axford	54.7	9.54	4.94	0.99	94	0.0	Tim Stoddard
Aaron Kurcz	55.0	9.16	5.24	0.98	91	-0.1	Not That Bob Gibson
R.J. Alvarez	54.7	9.38	4.61	0.99	90	-0.1	Rickey Keeton
Eric Surkamp	100.3	6.82	2.87	1.35	80	-0.1	Huck Flener
Raul Alcantara	61.0	3.84	2.80	1.18	75	-0.2	Daniel Haigwood
Angel Castro	80.7	5.46	3.35	1.23	79	-0.2	Joe Haynes
Patrick Schuster	48.0	6.75	4.50	0.94	86	-0.2	Mike Venafro
Ryan Brasier	37.3	6.27	3.62	0.97	84	-0.3	Tom Dukes
Taylor Thompson	43.0	6.91	4.40	1.05	84	-0.3	Keith Shepherd
Daniel Coulombe	61.7	8.31	5.69	0.88	85	-0.4	Jimmy Williams
Kevin Whelan	27.0	9.00	6.00	1.67	68	-0.5	Pete Walker
J.B. Wendelken	67.0	7.79	2.69	1.34	82	-0.5	Julio Mateo
Eduard Santos	56.3	8.79	5.12	1.28	81	-0.6	Brian Mallette
Barry Zito	93.3	5.02	4.63	1.35	69	-0.8	Mike Flanagan
Zach Neal	150.3	4.61	2.22	1.62	70	-1.2	Ryan Cox
Nate Long	114.3	5.91	4.25	1.65	67	-1.3	Giovanni Carrara

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.