2016 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
There’s always the sense, given the organization’s record of innovation and willingness to reconstruct its roster, that the A’s are likely to succeed then most when mediocrity appears to be the only possible outcome. If that sense is correct, then Oakland is likely to succeed very hard in 2016 — because the club, as presently constructed, is not well-acquitted by the projections.

Consider the following table, a version of which appears in the glossary entry for WAR and which provides a rough characterization for various WAR ranges:

By this rough taxonomy, Oakland currently employs only two batters classified as “solid starters” (Josh Reddick, Marcus Semien) and a third (Billy Burns) who profiles as precisely average. That triumvirate represents the exact sort of cost-controlled core a team like Oakland requires to win. Unfortunately, they’re surrounded not by stars, but role players.

It’s difficult, while examining the modest projections here, not also to consider for a moment the distinctly less modest one produced by ZiPS for Josh Donaldson. Last year’s American League MVP is expected to record more than six wins in 2016, at the cost of about $11.5 million. One needn’t be employed — or even have any training — as a rocket scientist to recognize what a benefit Donaldson would be to this club.

Pitchers
Fortunately for Oakland, the rotation offers a brighter spot in the form of right-hander Sonny Gray. In nearly 430 innings over the last two seasons, Gray has recorded a 6.9 WAR as calculated with FIP and an even better 10.0 WAR as calculated with runs allowed. Dan Szymborski’s computer appears to regard the latter methodology as more representative of Gray’s true talent: the 4.9 zWAR for which the 26-year-old is forecast represents basically just the average of his past two years.

After Gray, the returns are less impressive, as no other starter is projected to reach even the two-win threshold. Unsurprisingly, Szymborski’s model isn’t overwhelmed by Rich Hill’s four-start renaissance with Boston last year, although that’s also a product of playing time: the left-hander does profile as roughly average (84.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) if prorated out to 200 innings.

Bench/Prospects
Oakland has some high-end talent in its system, but it’s mostly low-ceiling high-minors guys like 26-year-old Jake Smolinski (406 PA, 1.0 zWAR) and 25-year-old Joey Wendle (505 PA, 0.9 zWAR) who appear ready to help the team in the near future. Success at Double-A might lead to a late-season promotion of third baseman Matt Chapman (328 PA, 0.9 zWAR). Among pitchers, former Cape League standout and Royals draftee Sean Manaea (113.1 IP, 1.1 zWAR) actually receives one of the top projections on the club. He was acquired at last year’s deadline in exchange for Ben Zobrist.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Oaklands, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.