Projecting the Prospects in the Dickerson/McGee Trade

In something of a curious trade, the Rockies flipped Corey Dickerson to the Rays for Jake McGee. Those two players were the headliners of the deal, but they weren’t the only two players involved. Also changing hands were third baseman Kevin Padlo and hard-throwing righty German Marquez, who head to the Rays and Rockies, respectively. Here’s what my fancy computer math says about the minor leaguers involved.

Kevin Padlo (Profile)

The Rockies drafted Padlo in the fifth round out of high school less than two years ago, but he wasted no time putting up gaudy numbers in the low minors. Padlo graded out extremely well by an embryonic version of KATOH and, nearly a year and a half later, his enticing combination of power, speed and youth still tips the scales. He placed 37th on KATOH’s newly-minted prospect list, with a projected 5.9 WAR through his first six years in the show.

Padlo kicked off his pro career by hitting .300/.421/.594 in Rookie Ball in 2014. The Rockies pushed him to full-season ball to open 2015 — his age-19 season, where he was a bit overmatched. He hit just .145/.273/.277 in 29 games, though a .179 BABIP is partly to blame. Padlo redeemed himself in short-season A-Ball, however, by hitting .294/.404/.502 with 33 steals in 70 games. Padlo does a lot of things well, but his strikeout numbers and distance from the majors make him a high risk to bust: KATOH gives him a 32% chance of never even making it to the show, but a roughly equal chance of accumulating more than five wins through his first six years.

To identify Padlo-like players, I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis Distance between Padlo’s season and historical short-season A-Ball seasons since 1990. I chose my weights based on the coefficients from my short-season A-Ball KATOH models to give appropriate weight to the stats most predictive of big league success, like power and strikeout rate. As always, the lower figure represents the more similar comp.

Hey look, it’s Aramis Ramirez! He was pretty good at baseball. Way back in 1996, Ramirez put up numbers that looked something like Padlo’s 2015 numbers — right down to the crappy cameo in Low-A. (Click to enlarge image.)

That’s slightly encouraging. However, the other nine players demonstrate the risks associated with players who have yet to prove themselves in full-season ball.

*****

German Marquez (Profile)

Marquez is a high-upside arm in the low minors. He shows a good deal of promise, but has had mixed results on the field. He posted an encouraging 24% strikeout rate as a 19-year-old starter in Low-A in 2014, which included a 33% clip with a 2.17 ERA over his last nine starts. His strikeout numbers regressed a good deal in 2015, but he still managed a 3.14 FIP: not bad at all for a 20-year-old in High-A.

KATOH pegs Marquez for just 1.6 WAR through his first six years. That’s not nothing, but it’s clear that Marquez is far from a sure bet. KATOH views him as more of a future middle reliever or high-minors pitcher than a future starter. It gives him just a 57% chance of throwing a pitch in the majors and a 26% chance of eclipsing the 1 WAR mark.

To the Mahalanobis Machine!