As we count down the days until spring-training games begin, let’s continue to take a position-by-position look back at the ball-in-play (BIP) profiles of 2015 semi-regulars and regulars to see if we can find any clues as to their projected performance moving forward. We’ve already looked at first and second baseman; today, let’s go all the way to the “good” end of the defensive spectrum and examine the shortstops.

First, some ground rules. To come up with an overall player population roughly equal to one player per team per position, the minimum number of batted balls with Statcast readings was set at 164. Players were listed at the position at which they played the most games. There is more than one player per team at some positions and less at others, like catcher and DH. Players are listed in descending OPS+ order. Without further ado, let’s kick it off with AL shortstops.

BIP Overview – AL Shortstops

Name	Avg MPH	FB/LD MPH	GB MPH	POP%	FLY%	LD%	GB%	CON	K%	BB%	OPS+	Pull%	Cent%	Opp%
Correa	90.58	94.66	87.39	2.6%	26.5%	22.4%	48.6%	130	18.1%	9.3%	132	35.5%	34.2%	30.4%
Lindor	89.08	92.05	88.13	3.1%	25.6%	20.6%	50.8%	118	15.8%	6.2%	122	34.6%	36.1%	29.3%
Bogaerts	88.13	90.84	87.53	2.7%	23.1%	21.5%	52.7%	114	15.4%	4.9%	108	33.8%	34.2%	32.1%
Miller	90.71	94.00	89.64	2.6%	28.8%	20.2%	48.4%	99	20.3%	9.5%	106	32.9%	35.5%	31.7%
Cabrera	87.76	91.61	85.25	5.3%	38.3%	20.7%	35.8%	106	19.4%	6.5%	105	47.9%	27.7%	24.4%
E.Escobar	86.06	89.55	82.32	3.1%	35.6%	19.3%	42.0%	107	19.3%	6.3%	102	41.5%	34.2%	24.2%
Iglesias	83.33	87.17	82.95	3.5%	19.7%	21.0%	55.9%	82	9.7%	5.5%	100	34.6%	36.4%	29.0%
Semien	87.56	91.54	82.12	3.3%	35.5%	23.1%	38.1%	106	22.0%	7.0%	95	42.0%	33.3%	24.7%
Gregorius	86.05	88.67	84.75	3.2%	30.9%	21.2%	44.7%	81	14.7%	5.7%	90	38.5%	35.0%	26.5%
Reyes	85.06	85.92	85.83	7.7%	28.2%	20.0%	44.1%	80	11.9%	5.0%	84	42.5%	35.7%	21.8%
Aybar	85.25	87.87	84.72	1.4%	25.0%	21.0%	52.6%	69	11.4%	3.9%	81	40.1%	37.5%	22.4%
Andrus	87.28	89.71	87.36	3.1%	28.7%	21.1%	47.1%	69	11.8%	7.0%	80	43.7%	31.0%	25.2%
A.Ramirez	84.66	87.57	83.34	3.3%	25.8%	21.4%	49.5%	66	10.9%	5.0%	79	38.1%	42.3%	19.5%
J.Ramirez	86.15	87.73	86.63	4.8%	31.4%	16.2%	47.6%	55	11.0%	9.0%	70	44.2%	30.4%	25.4%
A.Escobar	84.11	86.51	83.31	3.0%	26.9%	22.3%	47.8%	61	11.3%	3.9%	68	31.5%	38.3%	30.2%
Hardy	87.94	90.69	86.51	3.4%	29.7%	17.5%	49.4%	64	20.1%	4.6%	53	40.1%	40.4%	19.5%
AVERAGE	86.86	89.76	85.49	3.5%	28.7%	20.6%	47.2%	88	15.2%	6.2%	92	38.8%	35.1%	26.0%

Most of the column headers are self explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and BIP by field sector (pull, central, opposite). Each player’s OPS and Unadjusted Contact Score (CON) is also listed. For those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Contact Score is derived by removing Ks and BBs from hitters’ batting lines, assigning run values to all other events, and comparing them to a league average of 100.

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Let’s be honest. I’ll start. I’m not a very good baseball player. I used to be much better than I am now, but even back when I was better, I was not good. I fit in with my high school competition and, later, adult league, but in the grander scheme I was, sadly, not good. You are also probably bad at baseball. I know because you are reading this and not playing baseball. That’s okay. It’s what joins us together, you and me.

But what if you had to play? What if you were sitting in the bleachers at Camden Yards and all the Orioles came down with 168-hour food poisoning. What if the team bus blew out a tire between the airport and the ballpark and there were no other buses available because the Pope was in town for a week and he loves buses. So, you need to play!

The team needs you, but it also knows you are terrible. You have to play, but you have to play as little as possible while playing. Where could you play with out hurting the team? Well, nowhere. You’re going to hurt the team. Badly. You’re going to really hurt the team because you are awful. Terrible. The worst. You’re just barely better than me, although that’s like saying rotten food is better than poo. It is, but it’s also what Olympic announcers refer to as a “low bar.”

The worst part is that you have to play for a week’s worth of games. And you’re starting. All six games (there’s an off-day but it’s in Baltimore [sad face emoticon]). That’s one long monster truck rally! You have to hit and play the field. No DH for you. Maybe you’re stuck playing for the Red Sox and David Ortiz is like, “No way, bro. Get out there.” Maybe the other people who are forced into duty are older, fatter, and worse than you. Maybe I have to play DH!

So. Now we have to figure out where to put you. First things first: let’s figure out the batting order. Course, it’s actually not hard to figure out the batting order. You’re batting last. The less you bat the better. Because you’re horrible. Sorry to dwell on the fact; I just don’t want you to forget. It’s sort of the point of this article. But it’s probably for the best, batting ninth. I mean, really, do you want to stand in against 95 mph heat? I sure as hell don’t. I don’t want to tell you what I’d do in my pants in that situation, pun sadly intended. I’d bat 10th if I could. I imagine, whether you admit it or not, you would too. But you can’t. You’re hitting ninth. Congratulations. Hope you can foul one off, maybe. Also try not to mess your pants too noticeably.

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On Tuesday, our friends over at NEIFI published a piece about one of the more interesting parts of MLB’s international spending market, building off reports that 16-year-old Lazaro Armenteros — Lazarito, as he is commonly referred to — is looking for a signing bonus in the range of $15-$20 million.

As mentioned, he’s expected to get a bonus in the $15-20 million range. Jim Bowden claims it could reach $25-30m. He’s 16 years old, has no performance record whatsoever. For all practical purposes, he’s in the same boat as any other international free agent his age. The record for largest signing bonus for an international free agent of this age is Nomar Mazara’s $4.95 million.

Sure, perhaps there’s inflation to consider. But are we really supposed to believe that Lazarito’s expected talent is roughly triple, or perhaps as much as six times higher, than the expected value of any other 16-year-old international player? Any 16-year-old international player ever?

That would be really hard to buy under any circumstances. But perhaps especially because no one even actually seems to be making that claim about Lazarito’s talent. People are certainly glowing about Lazarito, saying he has exceptional tools and blue-chip potential. Similar things were said about Miguel Sano, Wily Mo Pena, Michael Ynoa, and others. Similar things are said about one or two amateur free agents each season, or at least every couple of seasons. And yet no player in that age bracket has ever signed for more than $5m.

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Previous editions: Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati  / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit.

Earlier this week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Houston Astros. In this companion piece, I look at that same Houston farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Astros have the second-best farm system according to KATOH, trailing only the Brewers. Their system lacks star power, but is easily the deepest. That’s why this post has way more words than you probably care to read.

There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. AJ Reed, 1B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 7.1 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 60 FV

Reed might have had the biggest breakout of any minor leaguer in 2015. Minor league pitching was no match for his mammoth power and copious walks, as the 22-year-old hit .340/.432/.612 between High-A and Double-A last year. If you’re looking for something to be concerned about, it’s Reed’s 20% strikeout rate. While that’s not alarmingly high, it’s a tick above average, and hints that he might have a tough time making contact against big league pitching. But otherwise, all systems are a go. It isn’t often that KATOH gets excited about a first base prospect, but it’s all in on Reed and his gaudy power numbers.

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Today we’re on a quest of sorts. It’s not a holy grail-type of quest, but then again, in a way we are looking for a grail: it’s just the grail of never walking. That’s not the actual intention of these hitters, because walks are a good thing if you’re a batter, and at some point you simply have to walk — no matter how hard you try not to — because a pitcher is going to come along and throw you nothing but junk. The lack of walks for these guys are just a product of their approach, and hitters with this kind of approach either quickly lose their job or are really good at other aspects of the game.

Take, for instance, the hitters we’re going to discuss today: Jean Segura and Salvador Perez. You might not have visited their player pages recently, but take a look at a few select categories in their stat lines from this past season:

A few things jump out. Holy moly those walk rates. Below average (in one case, very below average) offensive numbers. And finally: solid defensive ratings. That last point is the main reason these two players garnered a combined 1137 plate appearances this past season despite their woeful offensive production: Segura is an above-average defensive shortstop (also providing speed on the base paths), and Perez is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. Even though Segura’s playing time will be in question following his trade to the Diamondbacks, this goes to show you the kind of bat that can stick at these thin positions for most or all of a season.

The walk rates are the thing on which we really want to focus today, however, because they’ve rarely been paralleled in the past century. If we look at individual season walk rates going back to the start of the live-ball era (1920), we find Segura and Perez at the extreme end of the leaderboard among qualified hitters: in 2015, Segura tied for the 23rd-lowest walk rate since 1920 at just 2.2%, and Perez (with a walk rate of 2.4%) tied for the 40th-lowest mark. We could go into the hundredth decimal place to break some of those ties, but we won’t. We could even go further and factor in intentional walks, noting that Segura had two and Perez had four, but that seems unnecessary. We get the point: in relation to average full-time major league hitters, these two basically never walk.

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You come here to read baseball analysis, not baseball blog analysis, but just this once real quick, I’m going to turn the metaphorical camera around. Let’s spend a few minutes talking about FanGraphs!

If you’re reading this post in your browser, you might see off to the right a list of authors. Just to the right of that, there’s an additional list, of tags. You’ve probably never paid attention to these tags, or categories, and they do appear poorly organized, but we try to tag all of our posts. Now, we certainly don’t do a perfect job. And we did a worse job in the past. But it’s always been something that’s supposed to be done, and among the various categories are all 30 individual baseball teams. Focusing on those, then: look closely. Under “Angels,” for example, you see “Post Count: 299.” That means there have been 299 FanGraphs blog posts with an Angels tag. Is that a lot, or is that a little, or is that just right?

We can easily look at the numbers for all 30 teams. We can see who we’ve written about the most, and who we’ve written about the least.

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Ben and Sam preview the Rockies’ season with Deadspin editor Tom Ley, and Jeff talks to Purple Row prospect writer Jen Mac Ramos (at 19:45).

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“Tanking” has become a word people are applying to baseball, with various agendas being pushed in advance of the CBA negotiations. No matter where you stand on the merits of the argument, it’s at least a curiosity that now, perhaps more than ever, almost everybody seems to have a chance. It’s easier than it’s ever been to build a roster capable of making the playoffs, and the landscape feels like it’s mostly in balance. You probably already knew these things. If you’re a big fan of looking at stuff you already know, wait’ll you see what I have in store for you here!

Ben Lindbergh wrote an excellent article at Grantland last March about the broad trend toward greater parity within the game. There’s not very much for me to add, because in classic Lindbergh fashion, he went into incredible detail, following every thread. You should read that article from start to finish, and all I’m really here to do now is add a little more data. As I noted earlier today, this is projection season, so it’s of interest to see what the projections are saying. They’re saying what you might’ve already been able to guess about the American and the National Leagues.

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Spring training is getting underway, which means while we aren’t yet into the regular season, we are into projection season. Depending on what you’ve been looking at, there’s been a lot of talk about the White Sox, and there’s been a lot of talk about the Royals. Those teams have received some somewhat controversial projections, but not everything is so up for debate. For example: it’s universally agreed the Cubs look really good, and it’s universally agreed the Phillies look really bad. These statements are practically givens.

The White Sox became a topic of conversation because of USA Today. The Royals are back in the spotlight because of Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA. This is FanGraphs, so let’s take a look at what’s being published on FanGraphs. Here’s our projected standings page, based on Steamer projections and the depth charts, and you see the Cubs projected for an MLB-best 94 wins, and the Phillies projected for an MLB-worst 66 wins. These projections won’t cause any arguments — the numbers agree with consensus opinion.

Projections, though, are midpoints, at least when you see them published. Ranges exist around them. Sometimes pretty big ranges. And both the Phillies and Cubs will employ major-league baseball players, who are elite talents when it comes to their craft. The Cubs will win a bunch of games, and the Phillies will win a bunch of games. What are the chances the Phillies win more games than the Cubs?

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