The season’s final week has begun, with intriguing races for playoff spots continuing in both leagues. It’s the home stretch of award season, as well; while strikeouts and walks often get lots of attention in the Cy Young discussion, the role of contact management is often overlooked. To that end, we examined the contact-management ability of qualifying NL starters last week. This week, it’s the AL’s turn in the barrel.
This is a series of scouting thoughts on high-school prospects eligible for the 2017 MLB Draft based on observations from summer showcases. Today’s positional group is right-handed pitchers. Links to other positional groups appear below.
Previous editions: Catchers / Corner Infielders / Middle Infielders / Center Fielders / Left-Handed Pitchers.
Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)
Height: 6’4, Weight: 200, Commitment: UCLA
This kid might go 1-1 and he’d be the first high-school righty in the history of the draft to do so. His fastball is absolutely electric, sitting in the mid-90s and touching as high as 98 with good extension and movement that plays in the zone. I think Greene’s heater would be effective in the big leagues right now and, though the rest of his repertoire is middling, his body and athleticism make the entire package worthy of top-of-the-draft considertation.
My favorite part of my job is when players ask me questions. It’s difficult enough to come up with questions on a daily basis, so it’s great to get a free piece — and it’s even better when the question came from someone who plays the game every day. Once you make it to the Show, it’s all about staying in the Show, and that means making the most of your athletic talents. Strategy is often the key component to these questions.
When Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie came bounding across the Oakland clubhouse to me with his question earlier this year, he’d already decided to act on what he had perceived as an issue with his new/old home park. In the spring, he’d connected with his hitting coach, Darren Bush, in order to work on going the other way since he was leaving Houston’s friendly confines for Oakland’s cold. Because fly balls die in Oakland, and opposite-field fly balls are, by nature, less damaging than their pull counterparts, part of that new “oppo” approach was a heavier ground-ball profile. Mission accomplished.
But the reason behind Oakland’s fickle fly-ball play was still on his mind. “I think it’s Mount Davis,” he said back then. His theory was that the wall-like 10,000-seat expansion in center field — constructed in 1996 and nicknamed Mt. Davis in scorn after the Raiders’ late owner Al Davis — was responsible for suppressing fly ball distance in the Coliseum.
Answering his question turned out to be fairly difficult.
| 11:50 |
: Just a heads-up, guys — had shoulder surgery on Thursday, and my left arm is currently totally immobilized and hooked up to a cryotherapy unit. Makes it sort of difficult to type, so bear with me on the speediness of this chat.
|
| 11:55 |
: Soundtrack: The Antlers – Burst Apart
|
| 12:05 |
: you are looking well
|
| 12:05 |
: about how I’ve felt the last few days
|
| 12:07 |
: Sale/Kluber/Porcello looks like a total dead heat for the AL Cy. How would you decide a tiebreaker between them?
|
| 12:09 |
: Sale: 5.9 RA9-WAR, 5.2 FIP-WAR, 6.9 DRA-WAR (6.0 tWAR)
Kluber: 5.7 RA9-WAR, 5.1 FIP-WAR, 6.1 DRA-WAR (5.6 tWAR) Porcello: 6.2 RA9-WAR, 5.1 FIP-WAR, 4.7 DRA-WAR (5.3 tWAR) |
On August 1, within an hour of this season’s trade deadline coming to a close, the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds finalized a trade which sent outfielder Jay Bruce to New York in exchange for prospects Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell. The Mets added Bruce certainly not for his glove, but for his bat, particularly for a little extra thump against right-handed pitching. At the time of the trade, Bruce was having the best season of his career. The 29-year-old right fielder had 25 home runs in just 402 plate appearances, good for a career-best .295 isolated slugging percentage, and a 124 wRC+. After an injury-plagued 2014 and a down 2015, Bruce was driving the ball in the air to the opposite field, had cut down on his strikeouts, and, at the plate, generally looked like the prime version of himself for the first time in several years.
And then, one week ago, on September 20, less than two months after parting ways with a legitimate major-league prospects to acquire Bruce’s bat, Bruce was pinch-hit for in the eighth inning of a close game against the Atlanta Braves by Eric Campbell, he of the career 81 wRC+ which presently rests at 55 this season. Bruce said after the game he had never been pinch-hit for. He certainly couldn’t have ever expected that the first would come for a player with Campbell’s track record.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
Baltimore at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Gausman (166.1 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Sanchez (179.0 IP, 88 xFIP-)
While other outcomes are certainly possible, what this game — and, indeed, what this series — probably represents is a prelude to the American League Wild Card game. Toronto has already recorded as many wins as either Detroit or Seattle — that is, the teams currently situated just outside the top of the wild-card standings — as many wins (86) as either Detroit or Seattle are projected to record; Baltimore, just one fewer. What’s required both of the Baltimores and the Torontos, then, is merely not to fail too hard.
Of course, as modest as that requirement might seem, it’s one that everyone is eventually unable to fulfill. Sometimes chronically so. And then your father’s like, “Do you know how much I’ve paid for tennis lessons, and you can’t even get past the first round of a regional tournament?” And then you’re like, “Whatever, Dad, I hate tennis.” And then you storm off. And then, a decade later, you’re a weblogger. Hypothetically, that is. In this hypothetical, not real example.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Baltimore Television.
As you know by now, the world lost Jose Fernandez on Sunday. Here at FanGraphs, we wanted to offer those affiliated with us an opportunity to remember Fernandez in their own way. We have collected those remembrances, and would like to share them with you, as we all mourn Fernandez’s passing together.
Episode 685
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio, he discusses late Miami right-hander and divine ray of light Jose Fernandez.
This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 26 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Ben and Sam talk about whether adding the late Jose Fernandez to the Hall of Fame ballot would be a fitting way to honor his superlative but tragically brief career.
Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Last Monday, in what was a pretty critical game against the Mariners, Josh Donaldson got ejected in the seventh inning. Officially, he was ejected for arguing balls and strikes, but, unofficially, he was ejected for being a jerk. During his seventh inning at-bat, Donaldson tried to check a swing, and he disagreed with the determination that he didn’t check it enough. A couple pitches later, Donaldson was called out on a pitch that was probably below the zone. That was too much, and Donaldson expressed himself, and that was that. Donaldson wasn’t likely to hit again, so the ejection didn’t mean much, but he felt like he was getting screwed. Josh Donaldson belligerently wondered aloud why he couldn’t catch a break.
If only he knew then what he might know now. I don’t want to say that Donaldson deserved a break. A grown man needs to be able to control himself. But borderline calls are luck, and given enough time, luck will even out. Several days ago, Josh Donaldson felt like he was unfairly struck out. Friday night in Toronto, Donaldson was in the box for the very worst called ball of the entire PITCHf/x era.