| 12:02 |
: yo!
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| 12:02 |
: ran a little late writing and therefore a little late getting this up, so I’ll let the queue fill up for another 5 minutes or so and we’ll get underway
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| 12:04 |
: in the meantime, revisit Tame Impala’s Currents with me
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| 12:09 |
: ok, let’s chat!
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| 12:10 |
: Hello, friend!
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| 12:10 |
: hi, Bork!
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Episode 689
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio, he discusses (specifically) Boston’s decision to use Clay Buchholz as their starter for Game 3 against Cleveland and (more universally) which sort of adjustments and changes ought to be regarded as permanent and which merely a fleeting tactical advantage. Cameron also examines baseball’s slide rule and briefly considers the 2016-17 free-agent class.
This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)
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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2016-17 free-agent market.
Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including a collection of outfielders and then Rajai Davis.
Other Players: Mike Napoli / Wilson Ramos / Kurt Suzuki / Chase Utley / Matt Wieters.
Neil Walker (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Walker:
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.
In this year’s postseason, relievers have received attention based on when (or if) they have entered the game. For the Toronto Blue Jays and closer Roberto Osuna, there were questions a week ago whether Osuna would be able to pitch at all in the postseason after being removed from the Wild Card victory over the Baltimore Orioles with a shoulder issue. Osuna pitched to four batters in that game, retiring them all and striking out two, but his availability for the recently completed Division Series against the Texas Rangers was in some doubt. Osuna has laid those doubts, as well as those that accompanied a less-than-stellar end-of-season run, to rest.
If you were to hazard a guess at which Blue Jays player was most important in this year’s playoffs — at least in terms of increasing the probability of winning games — you probably would not guess Roberto Osuna. You would also be right not to guess Osuna, as Josh Donaldson’s nine hits and a walk in 19 postseason plate appearances led to a team-leading .635 WPA over the Jays’ four postseason games. Osuna, however, is second on the team WPA leaderboard, despite pitching in only three of the four games and recording just five total innings.
| Player | WPA |
| Josh Donaldson | .635 |
| Roberto Osuna | .462 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | .442 |
| Ezequiel Carrera | .242 |
| Marco Estrada | .216 |
| Jason Grilli | .178 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | .152 |
| J.A. Happ | .122 |
Osuna, despite his shoulder issue, has now appeared in three of the four Blue Jays playoffs games (having not been needed in the Game 1 rout of the Rangers). In this year of the non-traditional closer use in the postseason, Osuna has yet to come in at the start of the ninth in a save situation. Every single appearance has been incredibly important — and has often coincided with the most important moments of each game, by leverage index.
| Game Situation | Runners/Outs | IP | First Batter LI | Highest LI in Game | |
| WC Game | T9 (tied) | 0/0 | 1.1 | 2.32 | 2.32 |
| Game 2 ALDS | B8 (up 5-3) | 2/1 | 1.2 | 2.73 | 3.30* |
| Game 3 ALDS | T9 (tied) | 0/0 | 2.0 | 2.32 | 2.74 |
In the playoffs this year, Blue Jays pitchers have faced 15 batters at a point in the game when the leverage index had reached 2.0 or greater. Osuna has recorded eight of those high-leverage plate appearances — more than J.A. Happ (who had four in his start), Francisco Liriano (one), or Joe Biagini (two, one of which was a run-scoring double by Mitch Moreland in Game 2).
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2016-17 free-agent market.
Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including some catchers, a first baseman, and a second baseman.
Wilson Ramos (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Ramos:
*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.
**Prorated version of final updated 2016 depth-chart projections available here.
In a few hours, the Red Sox play their first win-or-go-home game of the season. And with their season on the line, they’re handing the ball to Clay Buchholz.
Yes, the same Clay Buchholz who posted a 4.78 ERA, 5.06 FIP, and 5.32 xFIP this season while getting bounced from the rotation. Buchholz is getting the ball in large part because of how he finished the season, as he ran a 2.86 ERA over his final 10 appearances. But despite some talk of changes in his approach, the Red Sox should not fall victim to overweighting recent performance; most of the evidence suggests that Buchholz is still not a very good pitcher, and shouldn’t be allowed to dig the team any kind of hole this afternoon.
Even if we accept the arbitrary endpoints that allow a focus on just his 10 most recent appearances, Buchholz actually wasn’t even that good down the stretch. Here’s his line from those 10 outings, compared to his 27 appearances prior to that stretch.
| Date | BB% | K% | GB% | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| Last 10 Games | 8% | 19% | 42% | 0.82 | 0.262 | 83% | 2.86 | 3.94 | 4.88 |
| 4/6 to 8/13 | 10% | 15% | 41% | 1.73 | 0.264 | 62% | 5.66 | 5.58 | 5.52 |
The walks are down a little bit, the strikeouts are up a little bit, and overall, Buchholz did pitch better in the last 10 games than he did at the start of the year. But really, there’s one column there driving almost all of the difference: his home run rate got cut in half, which led to him stranding a bunch of runners. John Farrell even states this, without using numbers, in his assessment of Buchholz’s improvement.
“Where he was burnt earlier in the season by the big inning, he’s avoided the big inning by virtue of not allowing multiple runners inside of a given inning then a big blow, a three-run homer or something like that, has followed.
The argument for Buchholz as a pitcher worthy of starting an elimination game relies on buying into six weeks of home-run suppression; outside of the 7% HR/FB ratio he put up in those last 10 outings, he still didn’t really pitch all that well. And it’s not like Buchholz has a long history of running very low HR/FB rates; his career mark is 10%, just a tick below the league average over those years. His career FIP and xFIP are almost identical, so there just isn’t any real reason to think that Buchholz is now a guy who give up long fly-ball outs without giving up home runs.
There’s no such thing as a good way to lose in the playoffs, but the worst way might be getting swept in the first round. It also might not, I don’t know, but it can feel so unfairly abrupt. The Rangers spent six months working on building the best record in the entire American League. It all came to an end in three games. That quickly, the mental calendar flips, and after another year spent entertaining dreams of the World Series, it’s time now for the Rangers to think about the season to come.
And this promises to be a difficult offseason for them. In fairness, it’s always some kind of difficult offseason for everyone, every time. But the Rangers need to identify exactly where they stand. And there are going to be several holes for them to fill, with limited financial flexibility. Nothing about next year’s Rangers is guaranteed, and there’s work to be done if they want to even contend.
Ever since (and including) a three-inning relief appearance against the Angels on July 31, Boston right-hander Clay Buchholz has recorded some promising numbers. In terms of run prevention, he’s been great: a 2.85 ERA in the American League is about 36% better than league average. By underlying factors, meanwhile, he’s been solid. His strikeout- and walk-rate differential (K-BB%) has actually been below average. By avoiding the home run, though, his fielding-independent numbers have been better than league average. Maybe he’s made a real change!
Poke around in his pitching mix, look through his pitches, and you might return to those luck factors, though. For one, a big part of what’s been different has been a return to the four-seamer. His worst pitch.
| 2:03 |
: Good day to you, baseball fan. Let’s talk prospects. Gonna keep things pretty tight to the hour mark today as I’ve got scout calls scheduled and Fall League prep to do for tomorrow’s opener. Also, you know…playoffs.
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| 2:03 |
: So Christian Arroyo is off limits to Giants management but do they have enough prospects to pull off multiple deals this offseason for an outfielder or closer like Wade Davis? Beede and Shaw but what else?
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| 2:05 |
: They certainly have the pieces to make a deal but probably not the ammo to outbid some of clubs with top-tier systems should they be motivated to pursue the same players. I think Arroyo and Beede are their best prospects, Bryan Reynolds probably just below them. Beyond those they have arms but most are either relievers or back end starters and some young, far from the bigs prospects who some teams might be hot for.
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| 2:05 |
: Is a player like Albies less valuable with the power surge the 2B position saw this year?
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| 2:07 |
: You could argue this year’s homer spike is so extreme that a regression almost has to happen, but I know the idea that I need to consider the power in my own valuation processes has at least crossed my mind. It all depends whether or not you think the spike is here to stay.
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| 2:07 |
: Thoughts on James Kaprelian’s return?
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The appeal of lists and rankings, whatever its cause, is very real. That thing you like? Sure, it’s good, but is it better than this other thing?! We’ve seen this carry over into baseball presumably since the sport began. Williams or DiMaggio? Aaron or Mays? Garciaparra or Jeter or Rodriguez? We’ve even clung to “Trout or Harper?” for as long as we possibly can. Whether this urge to create a clear hierarchy is good, that’s not for me to say, but it’s a tendency into which I’ve found myself constantly falling when thinking about one particular playoff team: the San Francisco Giants.
It goes without saying that the Giants are not in an enviable position. They’re down two games to none to the Cubs in the Division Series and their opponent is widely regarded as the best team in baseball on paper. But the Giants have been in a similar position before and come out alright, so it would be disingenuous to say they’re hopeless. Perhaps the biggest reason to maintain even a shred of hope that the Giants will fight back in the series is related to this fact: by at least one metric, the two best games pitched by a starter so far this postseason have been by Giants pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto.
Having two elite starting pitchers doesn’t guarantee postseason success for any team – one only needs look at the Texas Rangers for confirmation of that fact – but it’s also unequivocally beneficial. It may or may not be enough to help the Giants claw their way back in this series, especially considering Bumgarner and Cueto can only start two of the remaining three wins the Giants need. But it’s a situation that lends itself to an intriguing debate that I personally am incapable of avoiding — namely, the question of who’s better, Bumgarner or Cueto?