2017 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Chicago NL / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
If one were to calculate the compensation practices of Major League Baseball merely by examining Atlanta’s roster, he or she might arrive at the conclusion that players are rewarded for producing as few wins as possible. Consider: at $21.8 million, Matt Kemp (601 PA, 0.6 zWAR) possesses the club’s highest salary, but is also projected to record the lowest WAR among Atlanta’s starting field players. Ender Inciarte (596, 3.4) and Dansby Swanson (580, 3.3), meanwhile, are likely to receive just over $3.0 million together — and yet Dan Szymborski’s computer suggests that they represent two-thirds of the team’s above-average field players.

With regard to Inciarte and Swanson, one finds that the ZiPS projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks appeared in these pages at the beginning of the month, providing an opportunity to re-visit the trade that sent those two players — plus Aaron Blair (139.1 IP, 0.5 zWAR) — to Atlanta in exchange for Shelby Miller.

Pitchers
Atlanta’s rotation was one of the weakest in all of baseball this past season, recording the second-lowest collective WAR among all starting units. Through a series of modest deals, the club has addressed that situation without sacrificing much in the way of resources. Neither Bartolo Colon (156.1 IP, 1.6 zWAR) nor R.A. Dickey (154.0, 1.1) nor Jaime Garcia (127.1, 1.6) seem likely to facilitate even a winning season; that said, they immediately become the three of the club’s five best starters while requiring little in the way of long-term commitments.

As for the bullpen, it likely isn’t a priority for the team at the moment — and, given the ZiPS figures published here, might look quite different even by midseason. Consider: A.J. Minter (33.2 IP, 84 ERA-), Daniel Winkler (18.0, 85) and the newly acquired Luke Jackson (62.1, 87) receive the top three ERA forecasts here. They pitched fewer than 15 major-league innings collectively in 2016.

Bench/Prospects
Infielder Ozzie Albies (568 PA, 1.8 zWAR) is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, having reach Triple-A last year in just his age-19 season. While his numbers for Gwinnett weren’t excellent, Albies’ mere presence on that roster speaks both to his present and future ability. ZiPS calls for league-average production from him already, rendering him one of Atlanta’s top present-value players, as well. Otherwise, both Rio Ruiz (534, 1.2) and Mallex Smith (439, 1.2) debuted last season, the latter somewhat more extensively than the former. They both currently profile as strong bench pieces on an average club.

As for pitchers, the organization possesses prospects who are ready to compete against major leaguers. Left-hander Sean Newcomb (124.0 IP, 0.7 zWAR), received from the Angels in exchange for Andrelton Simmons, continues to record both high strikeout but also high walk rates. Josh Collmenter (100.2, 1.0), who is not a prospect, remains an intriguing piece after having produced three excellent starts following his arrival in Atlanta.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Atlantas, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.