2017 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Colorado field players produced slightly fewer wins than the average unit in 2016. The numbers here suggest that, given reasonable health, that same group ought to rate as something slightly better than average in 2017. Unsurprisingly, Nolan Arenado (646 PA, 4.7 zWAR) receives the club’s top wins projection. ZiPS calls for Arenado not only to produce the top batting line on the team (.374 wOBA), but also — after accounting for the third-base positional adjustment — to produce more than a win with his glove.

Of some interest here is the projection for Ian Desmond (639, 1.7). He’s forecast to record +6 runs at first base, a position he’s played zero times as a professional. Of course, one would expect a former shortstop to handle first base with some ease; however, those curious about Szymborski’ methodology should definitely, definitely, definitely contact him definitely at @DSzymborski.

Finally, a brief examination of things reveals that Colorado employs not one, but two, Gerardo Parras: Parra himself and also Raimel Tapia. Tapia’s No. 1 comp is the 23-year-old version of Parra.

Pitchers
Since 2011, only two Colorado starters have produced a three-win season: Jhoulys Chacin in 2013 and Jon Gray this past year. Szymborski’s computer indicates that two starters, Gray (155.0 IP, 3.2 zWAR) and Chad Bettis (167.1, 3.2), might cross that particular threshold in 2017 alone. Including both Tyler Anderson (113.2, 2.3) and Jeff Hoffman (132.1, 2.3), the Rockies feature four starters projected to surpass the two-win mark. It’s not an elite group, but — like the offense — profiles to be slightly above average given adequate health.

As for the bullpen, Adam Ottavino (42.3 IP, 78 ERA-, 0.6 zWAR) appears likely to enter the season as the team’s closer, although both Greg Holland (35.1, 72, 0.6) and Jake McGee (50.0, 73, 0.8) actually receive stronger per-inning run-prevention marks.

Bench/Prospects
The aforementioned Tapia (631 PA, 1.6 zWAR) receives the top WAR projection among all those players omitted from the depth chart below. ZiPS calls for him to record a strikeout rate that more resembles the 10.8% mark he produced last year in the minors than the 26.8% mark he recorded in a brief major-league stint last year.

With regard to the pitching staff, right-hander German Marquez (155.1 IP, 1.9 zWAR) appears as though he could immediately provide league-average value if called upon. Marquez made six appearances in the majors last season, three in a starting capacity and three in relief. Chris Rusin (119.2, 1.5) pitched well for the club last year, also in a mixed role. His projection also points to major-league competence.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.