2017 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (675 PA, 5.4 zWAR) won the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award with ease in 2016. Were a similar award to exist for second-year players, Seager would be the favorite to win that, as well. ZiPS calls for Seager to record less gaudy BABIP and fielding numbers in 2017, but that’s to be expected. At the most basic level, a projection system is a regression machine. BABIP and fielding runs require large samples before they begin to represent true talent. As a second-year player, Seager lacks that kind of sample by definition.

Here’s some other news, though: ZiPS also projects a nearly three-point improvement in Seager’s strikeout rate, from 19.4% this past season to 16.7% in 2017. This does not appear to be a product of regression to the mean. It can’t really: the lowest strikeout rate National League batters have produced over the last three seasons is 19.9%. Szymborski’s computer, in other words, appears to be calling for actual improvement. Or perhaps a different sort of regression — regression to Seager’s 2015 numbers, when he made more contact in the minors and (for a brief stretch) majors. In any case, two propositions are true: both (a) Corey Seager is very good and (b) this section, which is intended to provide a brief overview of all the club’s starting field players, has failed to do that.

Pitchers
The only thing wrong with Clayton Kershaw’s (177.0 IP, 5.9 zWAR) 2016 campaign was there wasn’t enough of it. After averaging 222 innings per season between 2013 and -15, Kershaw recorded only two-thirds of that total this past year. Prorated to 222 innings, Kershaw’s ZiPS projection comes to about 7.5 wins. He understandably receives a more modest innings projection than usual, however.

Here’s who else receives a modest innings projection among Dodgers pitchers: almost all of them. Rich Hill (95.0, 2.0), Brandon McCarthy (88.0, 0.8), and Hyun-Jin Ryu (90.1, 1.0) all earn promising per-inning forecasts. None of that triumvirate is projected to record more than 100 innings, though. Julio Urias (136.1, 2.2), meanwhile, is already expected to produce an above-average season as a 20-year-old.

The back end of the Dodgers bullpen remains a source of strength for the club — in part, certainly, due to the return of Kenley Jansen (62.0, 1.5). He and Grant Dayton (68.0, 1.0) represent one of the top relief duos outside of Chicago and Cleveland.

Bench/Prospects
Even as Los Angeles has possessed the means to sign the league’s most expensive free agents, they’ve made a priority of acquiring depth. That’s reflected in the projections. Consider: both Austin Barnes (441 PA, 2.2 zWAR) and Chris Taylor (492, 2.1) profile as league-average players, and yet neither appears to have a path to a starting role. Not at the beginning of 2017, at least. Meanwhile, rookie-eligible prospects Cody Bellinger (514, 1.7), Willie Calhoun (505, 1.4), and Alex Verdugo (570, 1.4) all profile as very strong bench players already.

As noted above, the Dodgers feature a number of fragile starters who, if healthy, could be of some benefit to the club. They also employ some young starters who, if called upon, could do the same. Neither Jose De Leon (111.0, 1.5) nor Alex Wood (123.1, 1.1) appear to have a certain role for 2017, but both are assets. Right-hander Trevor Oaks (138.1, 0.8) likely only has a future as an “up-and-down arm” according to Eric Longenhagen, but it appears as though that future is now.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.