2017 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
If you were to travel back to the winter of 2013-14 and inform the earlier version of yourself that, in just three years time, Joe Mauer (532 PA, 0.9 zWAR) would receive the worst projected WAR among all Twins starters, the young iteration of you would slap the older one right in the mouth. After that, he’d have some pretty understandable questions about how your journey to the recent past has been made possible and why you’ve chosen to make it. In that intial moment, however, the absurdity of your comments regarding Joe Mauer would overcome him.

On the one hand, this is a negative development for Minnesota. For the past couple years, they’ve typically run payrolls of about $100 million. Allocating nearly a quarter of that to a single win isn’t helpful.

On the other hand, this represents a very positive development for Minnesota — because Mauer’s projection isn’t that bad. Rather, a number of the other projections are just better. For the past couple years, the Twins have lacked an adequate supply of competent hitters and fielders. Regard: last season, their position players ranked 25th by WAR. The season before that? 27th. What the ZiPS numbers here depict is something much more like an average group — with serviceable depth, too.

Pitchers
The prognosis for the starting rotation isn’t as strong. Last year, Twins starters finished 26th by the FIP version of WAR and dead last by the version of WAR calculated with runs allowed. By that latter standard, the club’s 2017 rotation is likely to be a rousing success. By the standard of preventing runs relative to their opponents, however, they’re likely to perform worse than average. Right-hander Ervin Santana (156.1 IP, 2.1 zWAR) is the only starter to receive a projection above the two-win threshold. That said, there are quite a few arms in the 1.0- to 2.0-WAR range, so the floor isn’t terribly low, either.

In the bullpen, Glen Perkins (41.1 IP, 0.4 zWAR) missed all of 2016 with the exception of two April appearances. There’s a chance he could return for Opening Day. In either case, the ZiPS model doesn’t account for the particulars of Perkins’ injury, only that he missed a significant period of time. Nevertheless, he receives the top ERA forecast on the club (86 ERA-). Brandon Kintzler (52.1 IP, 92 ERA-, 0.3 zWAR) would continue to close games in his absence. Of note, however: both Trevor May (62.2, 87, 0.6) and Ryan Pressly (66.2, 88, 0.6) receive superior projections.

Bench/Prospects
Because a number of the club’s top prospects have graduated over the past couple years, most of them can be found as starters on the depth-chart image below. Catcher Mitch Garver (464 PA, 1.4 zAWR) enters his age-26 season and has never recorded a major-league plate appearance. He receives the top projection among rookie-eligible field players, though. Outfielder Zach Granite (580, 0.9) has appeared on Chris Mitchell’s KATOH prospect lists and is fairly well acquitted here, too. Also, a note about Jorge Polanco (598 PA, 2.3 zWAR). Following the trade of Eduardo Nunez to San Francisco, he more or less became Minnesota’s starting shortstop. He lost his rookie eligibility in the process, but merits some attention given the promise of his forecast.

If the Twins’ rotation were constructed entirely on the outcome of each pitcher’s ZiPS projection, Stephen Gonsalves (124.2 IP, 1.3 zWAR) would be the club’s No. 5 starter. Young right-hander Fernando Romero (125.2, 0.8), meanwhile, receives an encouraging forecast for a player who’s never appeared above High-A.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.