2017 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Chicago NL / Washington.

Batters
The Blue Jays find themselves in a strangely enviable position right now, if ZiPS is to be believed. The loss both of Jose Bautista (510 PA, 3.1 zWAR) and Edwin Encarnacion (576, 3.6) to free agency creates obvious areas of weakness for the club, nor does the combination of Ezequiel Carrera (381, 0.5) and Melvin Upton Jr. (433, 0.4) appear to be what the metaphorical doctor ordered so far as compensating for those losses. That said, every other position on the team (with the exception of first base) is occupied by a capable starter. Translation: the roster can be improved easily by the installation of even just average players in the corner-outfield slots (and/or first base). The Blue Jays’ reported interest in Jay Bruce and Dexter Fowler (the latter of whom received a three-win projection from ZiPS) is unsurprising, as a result.

Pitchers
Toronto starters produced the highest collective WAR among all American League clubs in 2016, recording slightly more than 15 wins as a group. The rotation for 2017, as presently constructed, would appear to be a candidate for repeating that distinction. Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, and Francisco Liriano are projected to compile nearly 15 wins among themselves. Even without any offseason additions, in other words, the club’s starting corps appears to be a real strength.

As for the bullpen, while it lacks a relief ace on par with Andrew Miller, it does feature a real force in Roberto Osuna (71.2 IP, 64 ERA-). After Osuna, however, there’s less certainty. The second-best option at the back of the bullpen might actually be a pitcher who’s recorded just 13.2 career innings: right-hander Danny Barnes (66.1, 82). Despite possessing a fastball that sits at a relatively modest 92 mph, Barnes recorded strikeout and walk rates of 36.0% and 2.8%, respectively, in just over 60 innings at Double- and Triple-A this past year. ZiPS appears to be swayed by those impressive minor-league numbers.

Bench/Prospects
Even as the Blue Jays are likely to search for corner-outfield solutions in free agency or by way of trade, it’s possible that the club already possesses the answer in Lourdes Gurriel (567 PA, 1.7 zWAR), signed earlier this month to a seven-year, $22 million deal. According to ZiPS, Gurriel probably isn’t a left fielder for a championship club at the moment. That said, he’d also probably represent an improvement over either Carrera or Upton Jr. There isn’t a wealth of MLB-ready position players after Gurriel, although Andy Burns (522, 0.9) and Dwight Smith Jr. (539, 0.9) offer some combination of offensive and defensive competence.

The Toronto system features almost nothing in the way of present value on the pitching side. The top projection for an actual prospect belongs to right-hander Sean Reid-Foley (102.1 IP, 0.0 zWAR), who profiles as a replacement-level player according to Dan Szymborski’s computer.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Blue Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.