Archive for January, 2017

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/18/17

2:38
Dan Szymborski: I THOUGHT TODAY WAS TUESDAY!

2:38
Bret: How does the Jays offseason look after the Jose Bautista signing?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Decent, not specatular.

2:38
Chris: How much fun is it to check out TalkingChop and see so many people adamantly fight against the validity of sabermetrics. We have some heated Matt Kemp discussions going on if you want a “fun” read

2:39
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been in some of those. I already flamed that guy with the weird metaphysical post.

2:39
CarrotJuice: Over/under on number of strokes you expect to have tonight

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What Would a Modern Tim Raines Look Like?

The Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the 2017 class of inductees today, and thanks to the work of Ryan Thibodaux, we can be pretty certain that the Hall is going to welcome Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines to Cooperstown this summer. Ivan Rodriguez might join them, depending on the percentage of votes he gets from people who haven’t revealed their ballots publicly, while Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero look like they’re going to get close enough where their election next year is highly likely.

But the story of the year is Raines, who will get elected in his final opportunity. In no small part due to the lobbying efforts of Jonah Keri, Raines will likely clear the 75% threshold after getting 24.3% of the vote on his first time on the ballot, back in 2008, then falling to 22.6% the next year. Raines’ election is another sign that players are being evaluated differently now, with the triple crown stats losing their long-held positions of canon, and instead a player’s total contributions now being considered.

But I know that, for a lot of people — even many inside the game — it’s still tough to think of Raines as a superstar. He was a corner outfielder who didn’t hit home runs. He had the profile of a center fielder, but not the defense to go along with it. He was a square peg in a world of round holes, and because so much of his value came from walks and stolen bases, he wasn’t really seen as a superstar when he played.

These days, though, we have better tools to evaluate players, and things like wRC+ have allowed us to give different types of players their due, even if they don’t fit the traditional mold of production. So, just for fun, let’s take a look at what Raines would be if he were an amalgamation of modern players.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 1/18/17

12:08
Dave Cameron: Sorry about the delay!

12:08
Dave Cameron: I’m here.

12:08
Dave Cameron: I had to finish up a Tim Raines piece before starting the chat, which you can read here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-would-a-modern-tim-raines-look-like/

12:08
Edgar Martinez Hype Man: Ad Free Fangraphs is so much better. Does Edgar Martinez get in next year?

12:09
Dave Cameron: Ad-free FanGraphs is so much better. If you haven’t signed up yet, you really should. Better for you, better for us, better for the planet.

As for Edgar, I think his last ballot in two years will be his shot. He’s going to need the Raines “are you sure you don’t want to vote for me?” pressure.

12:10
Erik: What do you think of the Saunders signing? Combined with the Kendrick trade, it looks like the Phillies have taken a lot of plate appearances away from their recently arrived or soon-to-arrive young outfielders like Altherr, Quinn, Williams, and Cozens. Will they have enough game time available to give those guys looks to see if they’ll be valuable future pieces?

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Tyson Ross and Risk vs. Uncertainty

Tyson Ross was one of the more intriguing names available in this winter’s historically weak crop of free-agent pitching.

At his best, Ross is something of the Rich Hill of sliders. From 2012 to -15, Ross led baseball in slider usage (38.7%) among pitchers tossing at least 300 innings. The pitch was so effective, he was often a two-pitch pitcher.

Among pitchers to throw at least 300 innings, Ross posted the 12th-best swinging-strike percentage in the game (11.2%) during that three-year period, and his 3.34 FIP ranked 34th in the game. Over that same stretch, Ross tallied 9.5 WAR. He was one of the better starting pitchers in the game.

His slider was still effective on the only day he pitched in 2016. Just ask Carl Crawford:

Ross was quietly becoming one of the more valued starting pitchers in the game. Then 2016 happened.

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2017 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The advantage, for a club, of embracing mediocrity is that it permits them to allocate plate appearances and innings to players who possess both clear strengths and obvious weaknesses. Odubel Herrera (609 PA, 3.6 zWAR) is perhaps the purest expression of this strategy and its benefits in all of baseball. Acquired by the Phillies in the Rule 5 draft and promptly handed a starting role at a position he’d basically never played, Herrera has produced roughly four wins each of the last two seasons. Szymborski’s computer suggests something approximating a third consecutive four-win campaign is probable. He’s an unambiguous success story.

Beyond Herrera, there isn’t much in the way of present impact talent. Maikel Franco (581, 2.6) is the only other likely starter to receive a projection better than two wins. Of some interest perhaps is the forecast for Cesar Hernandez (541, 1.7). The author of a four-win season in 2016, he’s forecast for only about half that in 2017. This isn’t surprising, necessarily: a not insignificant portion of Hernandez’s value last season was the product of a .363 BABIP and +13.9 UZR. ZiPS calls for a .340 BABIP and -1 fielding mark, instead.

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AT&T Is the Home-Run Killer of the Millennium

Here’s something that isn’t new to you: It’s difficult to hit a home run in San Francisco. It’s difficult to hit a home run in any ballpark, but, in particular, San Francisco makes it tough. This information is well understood.

So why don’t we freshen things up with a twist? Not only is it hard to hit a homer in AT&T Park — AT&T makes homers more hard than Coors Field makes them easy. That’s clunky, so to put it a different way, AT&T has the most extreme home-run park factor in the league. The most extreme of the pitcher-friendly places, and the most extreme of the hitter-friendly places, just speaking in terms of distance from the average. We all know the ballpark holds most fly balls, but while we were paying only indirect attention, AT&T became the toughest dinger ballpark in 25 years.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1007: Baseball News is Back

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Lenny Harris and Jerry Dipoto, then celebrate the end of a long baseball news drought by discussing a few recent and imminent transactions, including the Jose Bautista signing and the Danny Duffy and Wil Myers extensions.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/17/17

3:12
Paul Swydan:

Did you really think Jose Bautista would need to sign a one-year contract?

Yeah he’s super old (25.3% | 48 votes)
 
I hadn’t really thought about it (18.5% | 35 votes)
 
No he’s a star this whole thing is weird (28.5% | 54 votes)
 
Technically the options could make it longer (27.5% | 52 votes)
 

Total Votes: 189
3:16
Paul Swydan:

Which player w < 25% on BBHoF Tracker most deserves to be elected to the HoF?

Jeff Kent (4.9% | 11 votes)
 
Fred McGriff (8.5% | 19 votes)
 
Jorge Posada (3.6% | 8 votes)
 
Manny Ramirez (32.5% | 72 votes)
 
Gary Sheffield (8.1% | 18 votes)
 
Sammy Sosa (4.5% | 10 votes)
 
Billy Wagner (4.0% | 9 votes)
 
Larry Walker (33.4% | 74 votes)
 

Total Votes: 221
3:28
Paul Swydan:

Who was your favorite Avenger from “The Avengers” movie? (2012)

Iron Man (22.7% | 46 votes)
 
Captain America (6.9% | 14 votes)
 
The Hulk (16.8% | 34 votes)
 
Thor (6.4% | 13 votes)
 
Black Widow (8.4% | 17 votes)
 
Hawkeye (3.9% | 8 votes)
 
I didn’t see that movie (29.7% | 60 votes)
 
How can I choose? (4.9% | 10 votes)
 

Total Votes: 202
9:01
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01
Guest: If The Avengers were a baseball team, who would play where, what would their WAR be?

9:01
Paul Swydan: Oh my gosh, I’ve thought about writing this up before.

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Jose Bautista and Defying the Curve

So Jose Bautista will not receive the six years or $150 million he was reportedly seeking a year ago. According to Ken Rosenthal, Bautista has reportedly reached an agreement on a one-year deal with a mutual option to return to Toronto. Nick Stellini has already addressed some of the implications of the deal for the Blue Jays.

Since the conclusion of the PED era, baseball appears to have returned closer to its roots. Baseball appears to be a young man’s game again. Teams are hesitant to pay for seasons in players’ 30s. Teams prize prospects and pre-arbitration seasons more than ever. Teams are well aware of age curves, and aging models suggest Bautista is probably not the next David Ortiz, as Craig Edwards wrote back in November.

Those factors — plus a down season impacted by injury, plus a market that might have overcorrected against bat-only players — all conspired to limit Bautista’s market. The FanGraphs crowd projected Bautista would sign a three-year, $65 million deal.

But was the industry too skeptical of Bautista’s future this winter? Are the Blue Jays on cusp of a landing Bautista on another bargain of a contract?

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The Jays Get Joey Bats Back

A Blue Jays team without Jose Bautista feels a bit dirty. It’s theoretically possible — and, given the fact that the Blue Jays existed before Bautista donned their uniform, it’s verifiably possible, too. Yet fate seems to have conspired to reunite the bearded bringer of dingers with the Jays. Bautista is reportedly going back to Toronto after finding that his age and rejection of the qualifying offer have dampened his market far more than expected.

After at one point reportedly seeking a contract in the neighborhood of five years and $150 million, Bautista is signing for one guaranteed season at an $18 million clip, with two options that could bring the total of the deal to $60 million. Regardless of whether or not those two years get picked up, he’s beaten the initial $17.2 million qualifying offer. Mutual options are almost never exercised, of course, but Jeff Passan did mention yesterday that Bautista is turning down bigger money to come back to the Jays.

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