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The Rays and the Angels have played more than anyone, all the way up at 47 games. There’s no major reason why they presently lead the league — it’s just noise, and everyone ends up in the same place. The Cardinals and the Twins will have to catch up eventually. They’re trailing behind, having each played just 41 games. The median right now is 44. We’re through more than a quarter of the regular season.

Small samples don’t feel so small anymore. They are small, at least relative to full-season data, but now we can more safely look for trends, for disappointments and surprises. It’s true on the player level, and it’s also true on the team level. For example, check out the surprisingly good Colorado Rockies! Or, check out the surprisingly disappointing San Francisco Giants. The records are all starting to mean something.

But, just how much do they mean? I have prepared for you a quick post. Before long, every team in baseball will reach the 50-game mark. I’ve chosen 50 because it’s nice and round and, well, that’s it. If you’ve been reading for a while, you’ll notice I’ve run a post like this before. Consider this an update, with new data. How much do those early records mean? How much more or less do they mean than the projections?

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So much is going well for the Yankees. Aaron Judge has exceeded everyone’s expectations. Aaron Hicks has found another level. Top prospect Gleyber Torres has been promoted to Triple-A. Luis Severino has a 21.1-point K-BB% mark. Michael Pineda owns an even better 24.5-point K-BB% mark — and finally has some better BABIP luck to go with his elite swing-and-miss stuff. Many believe, including this author, that it’s better than even odds that we will see Bryce Harper somewhere in the Yankee outfield in 2019. If feels like the next Yankee dynasty is taking shape.

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You’ve read enough articles over the years that you’re pretty well aware of the major trends within the game. Relative to history, strikeout totals keep climbing higher and higher. Fastball velocities keep climbing higher and higher, and the number of defensive shifts is on its own upswing. And, of course, there’s the recent home-run spike, which has seen the total dinger number skyrocket. This is the modern-day brand of baseball that we accept: there are more whiffs than ever, because there’s more heat than ever, but the reduced balls in play are at least partially offset by the balls that are leaving the yard. All of this is well and irrefutably established.

What if I told you that, right now, baseball is on pace for another all-time high? One that has nothing to do with homers or strikeouts or anything else. Would you be curious? It’s only natural that the answer would be yes — we all want to know what’s going on within the game. So, I’ll go ahead and let you in on the secret. But, let me forewarn you. It’s awfully stupid.

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It’s still May. The Cubs are barely over .500. The Brewers are in first place. Needless to say, it’s still somewhat early in the season. Things aren’t going to end up the way they are now.

That said, we’re coming up on Memorial Day weekend, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have the fifth-best record in baseball. And if you look at our BaseRuns standings, which attempt to strip out sequencing from more-reliable performance data, the 27-19 Diamondbacks should actually be 29-17, putting them third overall in MLB, just barely behind the Dodgers for the #2 spot. They are sixth in the game in position player WAR and third in pitcher WAR.

So, yeah, it’s at least time to ask if the Arizona Diamondbacks actually good now.

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Intro
We’re cutting the ribbon on the 2017 MLB Draft Sortable Board. The board will evolve and expand as we approach the draft, and Future Value grades will be added as the cement dries on player evaluations. For info on the 20-80 scale, by which the players are evaluated and, ultimately, the board is governed, bang it here. For info on Future Value, it’s strengths and flaws as a shorthand measurement, read this.

Thoughts on the Class Quality
The 2017 class is about average on overall talent and perhaps a bit below average as far as depth is concerned. The strength atop the class, despite Florida RHP Alex Faedo’s slightly diluted stuff, remains the terrific group of college pitchers who all have a chance to go in the top half of the first round. Faedo, Oregon LHP David Peterson, Louisville LHP Brendan McKay, Vanderbilt RHP Kyle Wright, and North Carolina RHP J.B. Bukauskas are all fairly easy to project as starters and have a chance to make up 33% of the top 15 picks. UCLA righty Griffin Canning also has consensus starter projection but lacks the stuff of those ahead of him and has been used heavily, at times throwing 120-140 pitches in a single start.

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While the save statistic and closer role are slowly being de-valued at the major league level, it’s still a significant statistic in your roto league. And of all the early-season turnover at the position, Brewers reliever is Corey Knebel is one of the more interesting arms to occupy the ninth inning. Regardless of role, in real-life baseball, he’s become one of the more interesting relief arms in the game. A FanGraphs reader in yesterday’s chat suggested Knebel might worthy of a post, and I am here to serve. Read the rest of this entry »

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Previously
Changeups: AL Starters / NL Starters.
Curveballs: AL Starters / NL Starters.
Cutters and Splitters: MLB Starters.
Four-Seamers: AL Starters / NL Starters.
Two-Seamers: MLB Starters.

With May running out of days, it’s about time we laid to rest our series evaluating the individual pitches of 2016 ERA-qualifying starting pitchers. By the end of the week, we’ll be done. I’m splitting up the final two articles in a slightly unorthodox manner in order to make them run about the same length. There were so many good sliders in the NL last season that they deserve their own article later this week. Today, it’s the sinkers in both leagues, plus the AL sliders.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Carrasco (52.0 IP, 71 xFIP-) vs. Garrett (40.0 IP, 110 xFIP-)
Rookie Amir Garrett isn’t the reason this game has received today’s highest rating according to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm. A combination of Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco and a surprisingly strong Reds club — one which has produced the league’s most defensive runs, for example — is largely responsible for that. A recent exploit of Garrett’s deserves attention, however, and this isn’t the least reasonable place to supply that attention.

At the beginning of May, Garrett was demoted briefly to Triple-A. While there, he made a single appearance, just two innings against White Sox affiliate Charlotte. He faced six total batters over those two innings. What the video here documents is the last pitch of all six plate appearances.

What did Amir Garrett do? Struck out everyone he faced, is what. Now, his deed has been recorded here — if not for posterity, then at least for 20 minutes or an hour.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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