Over the last three years, Max Scherzer has kicked it up a notch, progressing from simply a very good pitcher to one of the best three in the major leagues. He attributes some of that success to an improved curveball, a pitch that has served to complement his already devastating slider. Perhaps it’s because of his curveball’s effectiveness that he’s not afraid to continue tinkering. Perhaps the introduction of a new, third breaking pitch will lead to another leap forward, if that’s even possible.

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Episode 746
The prolific Travis Sawchik is a former beat reporter for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and author of the book Big Data Baseball. He’s also the guest on this edition of the program, during which he discusses a hotly contested trade in his Hardball Dynasty league and another hotly contested trade in his Hardball Dynasty league. Also: the scouting report which the Pittsburgh Pirates may or may not have composed on Sawchik during his tenure as a newspaperman.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 13 min play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about another brawl involving a baseball, the still-sky-high home-run rate, and Jon Lester’s successful pickoff, then revisit their preseason playoff-team picks to decide which ones they would change.

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Around the end of last September, Clayton Kershaw began an experiment. A few times a game, seemingly at random, Kershaw would drop down and deliver a pitch from more of a sidearm slot. He took the experiment with him into the playoffs, and although that seems like it would’ve been ballsy, one of the explanations given was that Kershaw used to pitch from that slot in high school, so it wasn’t completely unfamiliar. It was clear immediately that the experiment was interesting. It was less clear whether it was particularly successful. Kershaw had a total of 25 pitches tracked from his lower slot, and I wrote about them in March.

One of the things about Kershaw is he doesn’t say much. So he didn’t offer much analysis of his own little quirk. We couldn’t be sure, therefore, whether Kershaw would resume dropping his arm in 2017. He didn’t throw any pitches like that in his first start. He didn’t throw any pitches like that in his second start. He didn’t throw any pitches like that in his first eight starts. It certainly looked like the experiment was dead. So it goes. If nothing else, at least he was still Clayton Kershaw.

Then start number nine came along. It’s back. For 21 pitches in the last four games, it’s been back. And Kershaw has added a new twist to his new twist.

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I was talking to Nationals reliever Blake Treinen the other day and the topic of command came up. I had to ask what happened earlier this year. He graciously addressed the early-season issues that cost him the closer’s role, and it opened my eyes to how the ninth might be different than the eighth — at least when it comes to typical reliever usage and the way batters act — particularly for a guy like Treinen. Hint: the difference has nothing to do with the pitcher’s demeanor.

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At this time last year, Luis Severino had just finished up his second minor-league start of the season. It was only his second minor-league start of the season because he had started the season in the majors. But seven starts were all Yankees manager Joe Girardi needed to see before he and the Yankees organization sent Severino packing, first for a start at High-A and then to Triple-A. On June 3, 2016, he allowed three runs in 3.2 innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Yesterday, a year and a day later, he allowed two runs in seven innings against the Blue Jays. A year after his demotion, Severino is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Let’s start with his demotion. In his first seven starts last season, Severino threw 35 innings. He allowed 30 runs, 29 earned, for a 7.46 ERA. Yuck. His 5.52 FIP also was unsightly, but showed that his 27 strikeouts against 10 walks painted a somewhat brighter picture. But then there was his 3.98 xFIP, a more or less league average mark. The discrepancy is the result of the eight homers allowed by the Dominican Republic native — six in Yankee Stadium, and two in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. That’s quite a bit for 35 innings pitched. It works out to a 2.09 every nine innings, a mark that has only been achieved twice by qualified pitchers in major-league history — Sid Fernandez in 1994 (2.11) and Jose Lima in 2000 (2.20). So, it stood to reason that Severino wouldn’t keep allowing homers at such a high rate. Or, you could make the argument that only two pitchers had allowed homers at such a rate because usually, when a pitcher is doing that, he’s unlikely to compile enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Because he’d probably get sent to the minors. Which Severino did.

Severino would work diligently in the minors. After the aforementioned June 3 outing, he would make nine starts. In eight of them, he allowed three runs or less. In the final of those nine starts, he struck out 11 in six innings and got himself a ticket back to the Show. He would make two starts, one in Boston and one versus Tampa, and the results were a carbon copy of his previous major-league work: eight innings pitched, 15 hits allowed, 12 runs allowed, 10 strikeouts, one walk, two homers. He was doing his job in terms of walks and strikeouts, but too many batted balls were finding green pasture or outfield bleacher. At this point, Girardi could be forgiven for not sticking with Severino. And he didn’t. Severino went right back to the minors and didn’t come back up until rosters expanded. When he did, he was a reliever, until the end of the season, when he made a couple of nondescript, short starts.

For the 2016 season as a whole, Severino made only 11 starts. He only reached the six-inning mark in three of them, and only one of those three cleared the bar for a quality start. Fast forward to this season, and Severino has already reached the 11-start threshold. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of them, and all seven have been of the quality-start variety. That is underselling the difference in his seasons.

Last season, Severino finished with a 102 FIP- and 0.6 WAR. This year, he’s posted a 71 FIP- and 1.7 WAR. Last year, of the 273 pitchers who pitched at least 60 innings, Severino’s 0.6 WAR ranked 186th. This year, his 1.7 WAR ranks 12th, and seventh in the American League. That’s pretty good, if you weren’t aware.

Luis Severino has widened the velocity differentials on both his changeup and slider. (Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

So, how did we get here? Well, various ways. A little here, a little there. One thing that’s interesting is that Severino’s success isn’t a product of him having suddenly learned how to stop fly balls from becoming home runs. For the entire 2016 season, Severino’s home run rate on fly balls (HR/FB) was 16.4%; this season it’s 16.3%, which is, you know, the same. It’s 27th highest among qualified starters. And yet, he has improved significantly, which is impressive.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Martinez (73.0 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Wojciechowski (8.0 IP, 151 xFIP-)
The Toronto-Oakland game receives the same score as this St. Louis-Cincinnati contest according to the author’s defective calculus; however, it also feature two left-handed starters. The positioning of the A’s center-field camera tends to distort the movement of a left-hander’s pitches, the ball effectively leaving the pitcher’s hand at the extreme left-hand side of a shot, traveling the entire breadth of the screen, and arriving at the plate on the right-hand side of the shot. The camera in Cincinnati isn’t superior, but the Cards-Reds game offers two right-handers instead — and also the Reds’ offense, which remains the second best in the majors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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PITTSBURGH — To begin this post, I would like to remind the audience of a series of fortunate events detailed back in February, a timeline of transactions that appears to be quite consequential as related to the surprise Diamondbacks and their resurgent ace Zack Greinke.

On Dec. 2, new Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen announced the hiring of Mike Fitzgerald to lead the club’s analytics department, which was to take more prominent and influential place in the organization. It was Fitzgerald who was a primary table-pounder for free-agent-to-be Russell Martin and his presentation skills in the summer of 2012, when Fitzgerald was the No. 2 analytics official in Pittsburgh.

On Dec. 2, the Diamondbacks non-tendered Welington Castillo, the starting catcher who was most responsible for the Diamondbacks’ placing 26th in majors by framing runs saved last season. Castillo ranked 95th in framing runs saved last season, according to Baseball Prospectus.

And on Dec. 2, the Diamondbacks signed Jeff Mathis, the top-rated receiver available on the open market, to a two-year deal. In a part-time role with Miami, Mathis ranked 13th in framing runs last season. To date this season, he ranks eighth.

Dec. 2 was a busy day for the Diamondbacks, and some suspected it might also be an important day for Greinke, from whom the Diamondbacks needed a better season in 2017 to contend in the NL West and to justify his record contract.

Seven months later, Greinke is in the midst of a significant bounce-back season and by some measures — including strikeout rate, K-BB%, and swinging-strike rate — he’s never been more dominant.

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What follows is my best guess for the first round of the 2017 amateur draft. I’ll update it the day of the draft itself (June 12), perhaps several times. Players have been assigned to teams based on multiple factors: rumors I’ve heard from various industry sources, the presence of front-office members at certain games (especially lately), each club’s own particular modus operandi, etc. Be sure to check out our draft rankings here.

1. Minnesota – Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
It sounds like Louisville LHP/1B Brendan McKay is also under heavy consideration here and that Minnesota would evaluate him both ways in pro ball for a while. Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore are dark horses but less likely than the Wright or McKay.

2. Cincinnati – Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)
The Reds had about a half-dozen scouts at the ACC tournament in Louisville and watched Brendan McKay’s middling start, though I think they prefer him as a bat. He’s a possibility, but Greene is more likely and, in my opinion, the better prospect.

3. San Diego – MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
I think the Padres would take Greene if he were available here and would be fine with JSerra shortstop Royce Lewis, too, but Padres decision makers have seen some of Gore’s best starts all year.

4. Tampa Bay – Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Lousiville
I think this is where McKay stops and that the Rays take him as a bat. If McKay goes at No. 1, I think Wright goes here, though the Rays had multiple high-level executives at MacKenzie Gore’s last start, too.

5. Atlanta – Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra HS (CA)
There have been a lot of crazy rumors about the Braves and they can’t all possibly be true, but of course the Braves haven’t been afraid to do things differently in order to maximize the overall talent they get in a single class before. As such, we have to at least consider the possibility they might get creative here. I think they’d like McKay or Gore and there’s a chance they cut an underslot deal (it would have to be at a huge discount and would still be risky), but Lewis is the best player on the board in this scenario.

Royce Lewis: going to Atlanta? (Photo: Bill Mitchell)

6. Oakland – Austin Beck, OF, North Davidson HS (NC)
Beck had a private workout in Oakland over the weekend and has the kind of tools the A’s can’t buy on the open market.

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