Archive for August, 2017

Young Players Are Leading the Rise in Three True Outcomes

The defining characteristic of that period in baseball now known as the PED Era isn’t particularly hard to identify: it was power. Home-run totals increased across the game. The long-standing single-season home-run record was broken multiple times in a few years. And, of course, drug testing ultimately revealed that many players were using steroids and other PEDs specifically to aid their physical strength.

Attempting to find a similarly distinctive trend for the decade-plus since testing began isn’t as easy. For a while, the rise of the strikeout seemed to be a candidate. A combination of increased velocity, better relievers, and a bigger strike zone has caused strikeout rates to increase dramatically in recent seasons.

Over the last couple years, though, we’ve also seen another big rise in homers — a product, it seems, both of a fly-ball revolution and potentially juiced ball. We’ve also witnessed the aforementioned growth of the strike zone begin to stagnate, perhaps even to reverse.

The combination of the strikeouts with the homers over the last few years has led to its own sort of trend: an emergence of hitters who record a lot of strikeouts, walks, and homers — each of the three true outcomes, in other words — without actually hitting the ball in play all that often.

The players responsible for this development are the sort who swing and miss frequently while refusing to offer at pitches on which they’re unable to do damage. To get a sense of who I mean, here’s a list of the top-10 players this season by percentage of plays ending in one of the three true outcomes.

Three True Outcome Leaders in 2017
Name Team PA HR BB SO TTO% wRC+
Joey Gallo Rangers 364 31 45 138 58.8% 125
Aaron Judge Yankees 467 35 81 146 56.1% 174
Miguel Sano Twins 429 25 48 150 52.0% 128
Eric Thames Brewers 417 25 60 122 49.6% 124
Khris Davis Athletics 469 30 53 149 49.5% 126
Trevor Story Rockies 364 15 34 131 49.5% 67
Mike Napoli Rangers 373 22 32 126 48.3% 82
Steven Souza Jr. Rays 446 24 57 128 46.9% 139
Mark Reynolds Rockies 437 23 52 128 46.5% 111
Cody Bellinger Dodgers 385 32 42 103 46.0% 141

That’s a pretty representative collection of the sort of hitter I’m talking about. Not only are these guys refusing to hit balls in play, they’re being rewarded for it: all but two have recorded distinctly above-average batting lines.

And this group of 10 is representative of a larger trend across the league. Consider how TTO% has changed in the 20-plus years since the strike.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1095: Ken Rosenthal on Sticking to Sports and Pivoting to Video

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the new-look, less-stuff Carter Capps, then bring on MLB on FOX reporter and MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal to discuss how and when Rosenthal relaxes and takes vacations; how baseball news leaks; how the Dodgers’ deep front office works; how he knows when a source has ulterior motives; how he evolved from a beat writer to a well-known national writer, and the differences between covering baseball nationally and locally; whether he’s learned from news-breakers in other sports; his contacts list; the origin of his bowtie-wearing; sticking to sports; Fox’s shift to video and the future of media; and more.
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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 8/10/17

1:39
Eno Sarris: Apparently this is obpmusic, so it can get on base or what

12:00
Eno Sarris: Let’s!

12:00
Hannah Hochevar: Vampire Tanaka struggled in the evening last night. Was it the dome? Or is there just no rhyme/reason at this point?

12:01
Eno Sarris: As much as I’ve advocated for the no fastball approach, I think it might lead to this sort of thing. Dave Righetti once told me that if you throw that many sliders, you’ll lose it for stretches. He was talking about Romo, who was the original All Breaking Ball Guy.

12:01
Jose: Has the flyball / swing revolution reached the minors? If not, how might that impact guys who look ready to make an impact?

12:02
Eno Sarris: Every day sees more FanGraphs readers in the minor leagues. Absolutely sure there are guys we can find. Look at Hoskins, he’s hitting 50% fly balls and loving life. Ryder Jones just told me he used plate discipline (like Bruce) to lift the ball better.

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Lars Anderson Discovers Japan, Part 4

Earlier this week, we ran what was originally planned as the final installment of a threepart series chronicling Lars Anderson’s experiences playing baseball in Japan. Thanks to popular demand — and Anderson’s interest in sharing additional stories — this is Part 4, with more to come.

———

Lars Anderson: “Birdman Bats’ fearless, peerless leader, Gary Malec made the long trek to visit me in Japan and temporarily join this bizarre circus. He flew into Osaka and took three trains in order to meet the team for our game in Kagawa. As the Fighting Dogs rolled up to the stadium on the team bus, I saw my good friend standing there wearing a Birdman t-shirt and board shirts with his trademark chicken legs sticking out. By his side was a box of bats and a suitcase. He was also sporting a huge, goofy grin. It was a cool moment.

“I met Gary through a mutual friend. We initially bonded over music, going so far as to start the band Daytime Nightlife with Gary’s little brother, Mark. Gary was hand-turning birch bats at the time, which I was obviously intrigued by. They were immaculate as well. As the years progressed and our friendship grew, we decided to use my experience and connections in baseball — and his passion of making baseball bats — to start a baseball bat company.

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That Other Truly Dominant Starting Pitcher

Health is the only real weakness in Paxton’s profile at the moment. (Photo: hj_west)

 
In this, the year during which the all-time record for homers in an MLB season will be broken, there has been no shortage of dominant starting pitcher performances. From Clayton Kershaw to Max Scherzer in the NL to Chris Sale and Corey Kluber in the AL, true greatness has been on display. In this space not too long ago, I dug a little deeper into the exploits of Dodgers lefty Alex Wood. Today, let’s do the same in the AL and give Mariner lefty James Paxton his due.

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Indians Lose Michael Brantley, Add Jay Bruce

It was an eventful 24 hours for the Cleveland Indians outfield. On Tuesday, left fielder Michael Brantley sprained his ankle in a game against the Colorado Rockies, so Wednesday, the team put him on the disabled list and promptly traded for his replacement, Jay Bruce.

Because Bruce cleared waivers last week, the transaction was fairly straightforward. The Mets already knew they weren’t going to get much for him, as every team in baseball passed on taking on the remaining $4 million of his contract. So when Cleveland suddenly needed an outfielder, it represented a chance for the Mets to at least save some money while also freeing up playing time for Dominic Smith at first base. In exchange for assuming responsibility for the remainder of Bruce’s contract this year, Cleveland surrendered just RHP Ryder Ryan, a player so notable that this is the first time his name has ever been mentioned on the site.

Here’s what you need to know about Ryan: he was a 30th-round pick in the 2016 draft and is pitching in relief in A-ball as a 22-year-old. This trade isn’t exactly like the Indians claiming Bruce on waivers and the Mets just letting him go, but it’s basically that.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1094: Not-Live Listener Emails

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about live shows, bounced throws, the spread of “such is life,” stats displayed on baseball broadcasts, more strange fields, a Dan Haren rules question, and the best non-All-Star seasons, then answer more listener emails about the Angels and Albert Pujols, an odd Brian Dozier game, crooked numbers, Chris Tillman’s first-inning problems, the Dodgers’ World Series odds, Corey Kluber’s breaking-ball usage, and more.
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Alex Wood’s Worrisome Trend

About a month ago, the notion of adding Yu Darvish seemed to be something of a luxury for the Dodgers. After all, not only had the Dodgers emerged as the best team in baseball, they had entered the season with the most pitching depth in the game.

But then Clayton Kershaw was sent to the DL, a place where Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir and Hyun-Jin Ryu have resided at times this season — and where they have been placed often throughout their careers. Read the rest of this entry »


The Mike Trout MVP Precedent

Most of the time when we talk about Mike Trout, we ask if anybody has ever done what he’s doing. Sometimes the answer is Mickey Mantle or Ty Cobb or Albert Pujols, but a lot of the time the answer is no and what Trout is doing is unprecedented. Today, we are asking two related questions:

  1. Could Mike Trout deserve the American League Most Valuable Player Award despite missing 39 games earlier this season?
  2. Does Mike Trout have a realistic chance to win MVP despite missing 39 games earlier this season?

While answering the second question might help prove the first through precedent, let’s restrict ourselves in the first part to the value Mike Trout provides. On Friday, I talked about Jose Altuve’s candidacy for MVP and showed this chart:

American League WAR Leaders
Name WAR ROS WAR EOS Projection
Jose Altuve 5.7 1.7 7.4
Mike Trout 4.5 2.8 7.3
Aaron Judge 5.8 1.4 7.2
Mookie Betts 4.4 1.8 6.2
Jose Ramirez 4.2 1.5 5.7
Andrelton Simmons 4.3 1.4 5.7
George Springer 3.8 1.5 5.3
Justin Upton 3.5 1.2 4.7
Justin Smoak 3.7 0.8 4.5
Carlos Correa 3.9 0.2 4.1

Through August 3

Things have already changed considerably. This is what the top of that chart looks like now.

American League MVP Candidate Projections
Name WAR ROS WAR EOS Projection
Mike Trout 5.1 2.6 7.7
Jose Altuve 5.9 1.6 7.5
Aaron Judge 6.0 1.3 7.3
Andrelton Simmons 4.6 1.3 5.9
Mookie Betts 4.2 1.5 5.8
Chris Sale has 7.0 WAR, but the above list only includes position players.

So Trout is currently projected to be the AL position player WAR leader at the end of the season. If he keeps up his current pace and gets close to the the 200 more plate appearances he is projected for, he is going to get above 8 WAR. Trout is currently above a 200 wRC+, a number that hasn’t been reached since Barry Bonds and done by only nine players in non-strike seasons in history. He will actually have to exceed his projections in PAs to qualify for the batting title, as he is currently set to fall eight short. Read the rest of this entry »


Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/9/17

12:01
The Average Sports Fan: The Cardinals are now over .500.  Are they an actual playoff contender?

12:01
Dave Cameron: It will take either the Rockies or D’Backs falling apart. They aren’t going to catch the Cubs, most likely.

12:02
Rod: Dave, can I use the rolling charts in a blog article? Secondly, if so, is there an option to get a picture of chart? Screenshot?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Yes, you can always use any of our graphics in your posts, as long as you link to FG in the process. There’s a download image button coming soon, but for now, screenshot is the way to capture them.

12:03
christopher: Tigers fans complain about the JD return, A’s fans about the Yonder return, but those two + the crater of the bat only FA market last offseason means… that was about the reality? Has the market overcorrected?

12:04
Dave Cameron: I think there’s a decent argument to be made that bat-first players are now underpriced, yes.

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