What Should the Rays Do?
The Tampa Bay Rays are a fascinating case study this offseason. They’re not bad, but it’s been a while since they were contenders. They haven’t finished with a winning record in any of the past four seasons, and as things stand right now, they aren’t projected as a 2018 playoff team either. Our depth charts currently peg them for having the 16th-best WAR in the majors, and the ninth-best in the American League. There isn’t a lot of separation between the Rays at 16th and the Diamondbacks at 10th, but by that same token, they’re not that far from the Orioles at 18th overall, either.
With some upgrades, the Rays could conceivably push a little closer to the top of the list and put themselves more firmly into the Wild Card mix. But as Craig noted on Friday, the Rays have already committed to a more expensive roster in 2018 than they did in 2017. As such, they may not have any money to spend in free agency. In fact, they may have to jettison some salaries. Who would they jettison, exactly? Let’s take a look:
Player | 2018 Salary ($M) | 2017 WAR | Proj. 2018 WAR |
---|---|---|---|
Evan Longoria | $13.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
Wilson Ramos | $8.5 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
Jake Odorizzi | $6.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
Corey Dickerson | $6.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
Chris Archer | $6.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
Kevin Kiermaier | $5.6 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
Alex Colome | $5.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
Adeiny Hechavarria | $5.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
Projected WAR via FanGraphs depth charts
So the Rays have eight players who are expected to make $5 million or more next season, either as part of their current contract or through arbitration (estimates of which have been provided by Matt Swartz). Brad Miller is projected to make $4.4 million in arbitration, which is also noteworthy.