2018 MLB Draft Chat

<div class=”chat_box”>

6:49

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello and welcome to the FanGraphs 2018 MLB Draft chat.

6:51

Eric A Longenhagen: Here is our last mock. Fingers crossed. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-3-1/

6:52

Eric A Longenhagen: And here is our draft board: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all…

6:52

Eric A Longenhagen: Things still sounded unsettled as of a few hours ago, so there’s still a chance things totally blow up at the top of the draft, but we’d say it’s unlikely.

6:53

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ll be answering your questions throughout the evening and providing live analysis as things unfold.

6:57

Kiley McDaniel: Hearing it will go Mize-Bart-Bohm at the top, as expected

6:57

Seth: How often are there no rumored deals this close to the start of the draft?

6:58

Kiley McDaniel: A little unusual to not have stuff settled until this late, but Moniak didn’t happen until like an hour before so it isn’t completely unusual

6:58

Scott Boras’ Adviser: hook the draft into my veins plz

6:58

Kiley McDaniel: Seems like a common sentiment around here

6:59

Andrew Brotherton: I’ve seen everyone from Lavigne, Turang, Casas, Adams, and Naylor linked to the Yankees. Who do you think they end up with? I feel like Lavigne would be an overdraft.

7:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah we’ve heard him with them, too. And Adam Hackenberg. We’re not sure if they fit together with Lavinge under slot in rd 1, or if one is the fallback if the other isn’t there in round two.

7:01

Mills: What’s the highest level source you each have? No names, but do you have any GM’s or scouting directors in your Rolodex, or is it mainly area scouts?

7:01

Kiley McDaniel: There’s some GM’s in the mix

7:02

Eric A Longenhagen: (nods)

7:02

Kiley McDaniel: Especially on a day like today when they know as little as we do at this point. Heard from a top 10 GM less than an hour go asking me what’s going on

7:02

Kiley McDaniel: In like a we really don’t know what’s going to happen sort of way

7:02

Fleer: Braves have been linked to Stewart all day and back to Gorman?

7:03

Kiley McDaniel: We think it’s down to those two and we think they’re leaning Gorman. Sounds like Winn is in the mix but the more expensive of the pitchers and thus a third option since they’re close

7:03

Craig: Thanks for doing this chat!!! Is this chat gonna last through the end of the second round? If so, sick!!!

7:03

Kiley McDaniel: don’t know yet bro but your enthusiasm is gnarly

7:03

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll just be here until I’m spent.

7:04

Dave: Eric and Kiley, thanks for all your draft coverage, it’s been great.  What’s the latest with the A’s?  Too dependent on someone falling (Bohm, Singer) or is it likely the names we know: Gorman, India, Liberatore?

7:05

Eric A Longenhagen: Gorman if he doesn’t go 8, with either Swaggerty or India as possibilities if they’re there.

7:05

MATT DAMON: Law had Noah Naylor to the Mets this morning, and Callis and Mayo both independently just changed their Mets pick to Naylor. Under slot deal?

7:05

Kiley McDaniel: Still hearing Kelenic there and that Naylor does not have a deal anywhere yet

7:05

Kenny Williams: IF I DON’T GET MY WAY, I’LL RIP EVERYONE FROM LIMB TO LIMB. BRADY SINGER SHALL BE MINE.

7:05

Jack: Please convince me that Seth Beer wouldn’t be a disappointing pick at 26….

7:06

Kiley McDaniel: I mean we wouldn’t take him there but it sounds like some people are thinking about it

7:06

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s not for us but he’s performed for three years and you could argue we’ve overcorrected

7:06

Eric A Longenhagen: Manfred at the podium.

7:06

Jake: Does draft day feel like Christmas or whatever non-specific religious holiday you may subscribe to for you?

7:07

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s hard to describe the specific feelings you have when you have a free moment to experience them. It’s not Chrtistmasy anymore, though. It was when I was just enjoying it as a fan, but it’s been a while since that was the case.

7:07

DM: You graded Madrigal as having higher game power than raw power. Does that mean you think his hit tool will carry his power production beyond what you’d expect from watching him take BP or in games?

7:07

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve got some grievance to air with you people

7:09

Eric A Longenhagen: Raw power measures a physical ability but game power measures results. Pretty common that a guy with 50 raw (as in, he hits the ball as hard as the average big leaguer) hits for more in-game power because of how often he squares it up.

7:09

Douglas: Got the first pick in my dynasty leagues mid-season draft tomorrow, Eric vs Kiley, who should i pick??

7:09

Eric A Longenhagen: No offense, there’s an ACTUAL draft happening.

7:09

Wally: Most Nats mocks are either Denaberg or Wilcox, with a majority saying Denaberg.  How confident are you in your source that they prefer wilcox, strong or slightly more than 50/50?

7:10

Kiley McDaniel: Hearing WSH likes both but has moved off Denaburg a bit late. Some rumors Denaburg may be playing hardball, could be ploy/has a deal/wants to go to school

7:10

Craig: Who are the Mariners linked with?

7:10

Kiley McDaniel: Unsettled, on all 4 demographics. Gilbert seems like the best guess but lots in play. Naylor a dark horse there.

7:10

Justin: Would Grayson Rodriguez be a steal at 36 for the Bucs?

7:10

Eric A Longenhagen: We literally have him ranked 36th

7:11

Jimmy: How does Seth Beer compare to Kyle Schwarber defensively? The general gist seems like he could be that kind of bat but is he even worse defensively than Schwarber?

7:12

Kiley McDaniel: Beer is a 20 runner/defender/athlete that’s sketchy at 1B, Vogelbach level. Schwarber is fine at 1B

7:12

Kiley McDaniel: More 30-40 in LF, 40-45 runner

7:12

Eric A Longenhagen: Hoping we get to see Jim Leyland chain smoke live on TV at some point

7:12

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, so let’s talk about Casey Mize….

7:13

Eric A Longenhagen: 93-96, touches 97, it’s pretty straight and doesn’t play great in the zone. Plus cutter and splitter, above-average slider.

7:13

Mike Huey: As a Giants fan should I be terribly disappointed if the Giants go under slot at #2?

7:13

Kiley McDaniel: We’re hearing they won’t and yes I would be if it’s Winn.

7:13

Mike: NFL and NBA drafts get huge tv ratings. Is the MLB at all motivated to turn their draft into a bigger spectacle?

7:14

Kiley McDaniel: you know what the MLB draft needs?

7:14

Kiley McDaniel: WHAT HAS FOUR THUMBS AND IS RUNNING THIS CHAT

7:14

Eric A Longenhagen: Command is plus some nights and closer to average on others. Missed two starts as a soph, had more forearm soreness in the summer on TEAM USA, had a PRP injection in August. Was healthy all year so post-draft physical should go okay.

7:15

Ryan: Hey Eric! If you’re leading the Rays draft room, what’s your strategy for tonight?

7:15

Eric A Longenhagen: Mixing prep players with a college guy or two. Preferably Kowar or Gilbert and a college bat.

7:16

Players who go to college: Who are we?

7:16

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we know by the end of the night.

7:17

Kiley McDaniel: Mike Vasil (duh), Kumar Rocker, Mike Siani, Matt McLain, Mason Denaburg, Max Marusak leading candidates

7:18

Nathan: In the Mets room, is it the baseball people that want Kelenic?

7:18

Kiley McDaniel: That is what we’ve heard

7:18

Kiley McDaniel: And we’re 2 for 2!

7:18

Timothy Smith: Does the Kyle Murray chatter have legs or more of a smokescreen in your opinion?

7:18

Kiley McDaniel: I think people are getting bored with chalk and last 24 hours there’s been a lot of wacky things we’ve heard and not reported

7:19

Jimmy: Are you guys for or against the idea of allowing all picks to be traded? Seems like it is one thing that makes the NFL/NBA draft interesting and good live tv.

7:19

Kiley McDaniel: IT WOULD BE AMAZING PLEASE DO IT

7:20

Kiley McDaniel: also we’re uniquely qualified at FG to combine scouting info with MLB evals and pick values into trade value things

7:20

Kiley McDaniel: so it fits our skillset as a site amazingly well

7:20

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are unintended consequences and measures would need to be put in place to prevent, I don’t know, Baltimore maybe, from trading everyone.

7:20

Kiley McDaniel: every group has one and they’re ours

7:20

Scott: Is Heimlich going to get drafted?

7:21

Kiley McDaniel: we’re hearing yes, not a great sense of when or by who. no one will admit he’s on their board but we’ve def gotten some no’s from teams and heard some other teams are on him

7:21

homer simpson: BART!!!!!!!!!!!

7:22

Craig: The Giants were right to pick the BPA in Bart, but now that they have him, do they move Posey to 1B when Bart is ready or what?

7:22

Curious: you guys are slightly ahead of the mlb.com stream for some people just fyi

7:22

Kiley McDaniel: I’m watching on TV so I think I’m about 30 seconds ahead

7:22

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, or they split time like Yadi Molina should have been this year.

7:22

Guest: You guys are 2 for 2! How many picks are you going to miss in the first round?

7:22

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m watching the stream and am behind too

7:22

Kiley McDaniel: A lot!

7:22

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, a lot.

7:22

Joe Girardi: Hello. I am Joe Girardi. I am definitely in this studio, reading this teleprompter, willingly, and of my own volition. Here is a copy of today’s newspaper that I’m holding up.

7:23

Craig: Bart calls his own games for his college team, do MLB catcher call their own games typically? Or do college coaches call games typically and MLB catchers typicall or what?

7:24

Eric A Longenhagen: They do not. College coaches are draconian and call them mots of the time.

7:24

Alex: Talk to me about Joey Bart

7:25

Eric A Longenhagen: Defensive profile already largely in place. Has power. We think there’s swing and miss and it might not be corrected when he’s in the minors since his glove might get him to the bigs quicker than the bat develops, kind of like what happened with Zunino.

7:26

Rick: Bohm has a 20 grade buttoning ability

7:28

Eric A Longenhagen: Alec Bohm has huge raw power, surprising bat control for his size (9% K rate) and is athletic for his size. Chance to stay at third, swing tweak might unlock crazy power.

7:28

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, the Draft Board has where we think these guys rank on the top 100: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all…

7:29

Lonnie: I’m uncomfortable with the “[player] is now the property of [team].”

7:29

RyanW: Can someone tell the studio guys to maybe not call these kids “property”?

7:29

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, happens more than I’d like it to on MLB Network broadcasts. Just makes a lot of people feel icky.

7:29

Rhaye: Who is Grayson Rodriguez and why have I started hearing the Reds are on him at 5?

7:29

Eric A Longenhagen: I think I’d like to know why/how you’re hearing that, too.

7:30

WCP: Bohm is talkative.

7:30

Curious: Bohm also has 20 interview skills lol

7:30

buhgtnrjckmd: Alec Bohm’s interview LMAO

7:30

Eric A Longenhagen: He hits the ball really far and that’s all I care about.

7:30

Rick Hahn: Help! Kenny Williams has stolen the phone and ran away! Tell the commish not to listen to him! We want Madrigal! WE WANT MADRIGAL!!!

7:31

Eric A Longenhagen:

Should We Do a Video Chat Next Year?

Yes, figure it out even though Eric’s internet sucks (66.1% | 184 votes)
No, both of you have 45 faces, at best (33.8% | 94 votes)

Total Votes: 278
7:32

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s my main Madrigal jawn: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/could-a-5-foot-8-second-baseman-be-dra…

7:33

Eric A Longenhagen: I love him, everything about him. Speed, glove, bat, think he’s gonna hit for some power.

7:33

Tim Salmon: We’re just going to presume baseball still exists in 2019, Eric..?

7:34

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess we’re betting Earth still exists, so vote in your midterms

7:34

Uncle Jimbo: For all those complaining about the use of the word “property”, we could make the players all a free agent as they deserve to be but then everyone would complain that is unfair in favor of the larger markets.  Fans want these players to be “property” but do not want them called that.

7:34

owu: Strategically, what do you make of the Padres (alleged) strategy of going underslot early? I know it’s fairly common and often likened to trading down in the NFL draft, but do you have any sense of whether it’s typically a good or bad idea?

7:35

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s beneficial if the situation is ripe for it, and it’s hard to explain what situations are and aren’t good for it because each draft’s pick order and player composition is so unique. You have to get a feel for who will be around that you’ll wanna spend the extra money on and you have to get a good player, under slot, with your first pick.

7:36

Eric A Longenhagen: like the Cubs Schwarber draft. They got a good player, added volume late and hit on Cease

7:36

Fringe Fries: Can we just have Scout’s face and your voices/

7:36

Kiley McDaniel: That’s an idea

7:36

TF Fredrik: When you put a grade on what pitchers throw, do you use the physical aspects alone (Velo, movement, pitch mix, maybe spin) or do you bake in results for those  pitches as well (Whiff, GB, IFFB, foul %)?

7:37

Eric A Longenhagen: Mostly the former because, for minor leaguers, we rarely have access to the latter. It’s one of our biggest holes and I wish we had Trackmen averywhere

7:37

Spicy Boy: how far does swaggerty slide?

7:37

Real Alex P. Keaton: Any chance Kyler Murray would quit football and start playing baseball full time this summer for the right bonus number?

7:37

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like he goes 9-12. Shouldn’t get past 12 unless him and India get there

7:38

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea what that number is. Think $2.5 million is close to where he needs to think about it.

7:38

Simon: Madrigal to the White Sox!

7:38

Kiley McDaniel: The right pick!

7:38

Hojo: Any early guesses as to who makes it to MLB within a year? Like Bregman from his class, etc

7:38

Kiley McDaniel: Nick Sandlin, RHP, Southern Miss

7:40

Eric A Longenhagen: Johnny India went 5th to Reds.

7:41

It’s Miller Time: with Madrigal going to CWS – they have to be thinking that Moncada or he can play 3B long term, right?

7:42

Kiley McDaniel: I really don’t think one has anything to do with the other

7:42

Guest: I’d think Moncada moves

7:42

Eric A Longenhagen: Same

7:42

Nick: Where does the Singer slide end?

7:42

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll guess 9

7:43

sarah: do you guys have a big physical board you move guys around on?

7:43

Eric A Longenhagen: Not in the budget because, eventually, it would be so big that it could be seen from space

7:45

Wes: Since you both worked 95 hours a week on prospecting, what is the first thing you do when it’s over?

7:45

Kiley McDaniel: probably sleep

7:45

Kiley McDaniel: might start now

7:46

Ameer: What do the blue jays do now that India was taken at 5?

7:46

Kiley McDaniel: Swaggerty

7:46

Tim: Who do you like more between Liberatore and Stewart?

7:46

Eric A Longenhagen: (bangs head against desk)

7:46

Norm: Is it a near lock that the Reds start India at SS?

7:47

Kiley McDaniel: I’m sure they’ll try it, not sure it’s a viable long-term thing but worth a shot

7:47

Not Finnigan: Wait is is pronounced Kellnic or Kelenic?

7:48

Eric A Longenhagen: KELL-nick

7:49

Billy Beane: Odds of Swaggerty to Oakland going up or down with the current (lowercase) board looking the way it is?

7:49

Eric A Longenhagen: Down

7:49

Mountie Votto: Madrigal, India, Singer were the top low-variance prospects on your BOARD. Who’s the safest bet of the 3? I’m guessing it’s between India and Madrigal, since, yknow, TNSTAAPP

7:50

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess India, because once you start splitting hairs you have to consider Madrigal’s size and the fact that he has been hurt

7:52

Eric A Longenhagen: The sound Kiley made when the Padres took Weathers, who we’ve had connected to them for a while and chose to mock Libby, last minute, instead, was unlike any sound I’ve previously heard him make.

7:52

Eric A Longenhagen: We anticipate Weathers is under slot here

7:52

owu: Any case for Weathers as the best option straight up, or purely as an underslot decision?

7:52

Eric A Longenhagen: Purely under slot

7:54

Not Finnigan: Weathers’ body doesn’t look… great

7:54

Eric A Longenhagen: Right, it’s one of the things we don’t like about him, but he’s a better athlete than he looks in the uni and you don’t have to project on the stuff because it’s already good.

7:54

Nick: Weathers said he was a big golfer, do you worry about that at all because of the strain on the elbow/golfers elbow? Is no golf allowed in MLB contracts?

7:55

Eric A Longenhagen: If golf weren’t allowed all the pitchers would quit.

7:55

Peanuts Wilson: why dont u guys make a board that rates players so nobody asks if you prefer x or y anymore

7:55

Bernie: Ryan Weathers is the first fat, left-handed son of a big leaguer to be drafted 7th overall since Prince Fielder in 2002.

7:55

Mel Kiper: Which one of you has the better hair?

7:55

Eric A Longenhagen: please

7:55

Dan: No question just a comment…having the board available as a reference while watching the draft adds so much to the experience!  Well done.

7:55

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias

7:56

Kiley McDaniel: there’s a link if you’re coming on late

7:56

John: Weathers = Murray?….

7:56

Kiley McDaniel: Would set the odds are Murray going today at 5-10%. Eric?

7:57

Eric A Longenhagen: 20%, literally twice as likely as you say!

7:57

Replacement Level Warrior: Do other teams look at Anthony Alford’s development when considering Murray? Has Alford’s development hurt or hinder Murray;s

7:58

Eric A Longenhagen: Structure of those kind of two-sport deals is a little less viable in the new CBA

7:59

BlueJays96: Do you have concerns about how much Carter Stewart’s mom helped him do his jersey up?

8:00

Eric A Longenhagen: I bet she never forgets it.

8:03

bgkc: Studs, both of you.   Would a GM like Dipoto, who obviously views his system as trade fodder, choose a college player in the first round specifically because he can market him as near-ready in trades that upcoming winter?

8:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

8:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Not saying SEA is doing that, but that I think it’s a consideration for teams in that kind of position

8:03

Nervous fan: Any book on injury risk for a guy with such an intense curve on a teenager?

8:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that’s lost in the noise caused by pitcher injuries in general

8:05

Kiley McDaniel: well i give up i don’t know anything

8:06

Eric A Longenhagen: Kyler Murray, please come spend the summer in the AZL with me.

8:08

altitude: If Murray signs, do the A’s let him play football another season?

8:08

Ian: Kyler Murray holy shit!!!!

8:08

Eric A Longenhagen: https://streamable.com/voub7

8:08

Craig: How far do you see Nolan Gorman falling now?

8:08

Eric A Longenhagen: Not past 13

8:09

Kyler Murray: Why would I play football with NFL’s awful injury chance/CBA?

8:09

Eric A Longenhagen: You love it and have been working for it for many years? Think you play in the fall (if you win the job) and that’s it

8:11

Dibbles: Can I just ask you Twin Peaks questions next week in chat?

8:11

Eric A Longenhagen: If it’s me, yeah

8:12

woodberry: Singer keeps sliding…should the Orioles pounce on him?

8:12

Eric A Longenhagen: Just going with our board I say no, but I wouldn’t crush them if they did it.

8:13

Kiley McDaniel: We’re hearing Grayson Rodriguez to Baltimore here

8:13

Eric A Longenhagen: 10, 11 and 15 were his earliest spots

8:13

Billy Beane: Can you contrast Swaggerty and Murray, now with the assumption that Murray never touches a football again? To me it seems like Murray has a marginally louder toolset with a lot less polish and the worse platoon handedness. Am I missing something?

8:14

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed, just have several years less data on Kyler

8:14

Eric A Longenhagen: and the football part you had to do some behind the scenes work to figure out what it would take

8:14

Guest: It was said Murray needed ~$3M to sign. Is it possible that he will be an underslot pick for the A’s or do you think he’ll take slot?

8:14

Kiley McDaniel: Heard he’s asking for over, but who knows

8:17

Jay: First, a big thank you for all the content you guys provide to us!! A pair of Reds based questions —
1)  You guys have been on record as proponents where having too many good players is never an issue.  Do team execs ever think like some fans and go “we already have a prospect at position X, let’s take a different guy?”  I’d imagine the Reds adding India to a strong system of controlled IF (Suarez, Senzel, Long) and having the “problem” of too many guys if everyone develops makes sense given they could then either move one to 1B/corner OF, or trade somebody if/when they turn the corner and are competitive again.  A lot would have to go right to get there though.

2) Does a team ever take into consideration their home park as a tiebreaker when picking players if there isn’t a clear-cut choice within the room?  Thinking of teams like Colorado, Cincy, Baltimore. Would they lean towards a bat if their specific type of pitcher isn’t available, grab extra pitching

8:18

Kiley McDaniel: Groshans here to TOR

8:18

Eric A Longenhagen: 1) most teams don’t care because the rate of attrition rarely leaves you with too many guys for real

8:18

Eric A Longenhagen: 2) yes, Colorado is one, not sure of others

8:20

Craig: Where does Liberatore go now?

8:20

Kiley McDaniel: I for one would love to own the libs here

8:21

Not Finnigan: Is that a report or a prediction on Groshans, Kiley?

8:21

Kiley McDaniel: report

8:22

Kiley McDaniel: and a good one!

8:23

Not Finnigan: Tell me about Groshans. Underslot?

8:23

Kiley McDaniel: If you squint it looks like a young Donaldson, but a long road to turn into that guy, some contact risk with the hitting mechanics geared for power

8:23

Taco: G-Rod underslot guy like Weathers?

8:24

Kiley McDaniel: Has to be, as of a few days ago sounded like he could go in the 20’s or 30’s

8:25

Craig: Wouldn’t you say this draft has been unusually unpredictable? Picks 9-12 in particular?

8:25

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, this is about right

8:26

Levi: I saw the latest mock had Seth Beer to the Red Sox at 26, but he’s your 64th overall player. Wouldn’t he be a bit of a reach? How far will Singer, Kowar, Gilbert fall?

8:27

Eric A Longenhagen: We’d consider it a bit of a reach but think he goes in the first round. The college pitching dominoes are definitely falling and someone is going to get good value late.

8:28

Taco: Juan Pierre representing Miami.. Edwards it is

8:28

Ryan: Eric, WTF is happening?

8:28

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m trying to figure out what’s up with Libby and Gorman…

8:29

Kiley McDaniel: Hey we got one right I’m out of the fetal position

8:30

Kiley McDaniel: Logan Gilbert coming here to SEA

8:30

Guest: HS pitcher for SF at 45?

8:31

Eric A Longenhagen: confirmed Logan Gilbert here

8:31

Kiley McDaniel: They were trying to float some HS players but there’s too much money between here and there, so I’m sure they don’t know who they’re getting. Sean Hjelle makes sense if they play it straight

8:33

Rob: Pads must love Weathers’ makeup, think he can be more than a 3?

8:33

Kiley McDaniel: He isn’t the same kind of pitcher as Kolby Allard in terms of size/delivery/type of stuff, but I think think it’ll be a similar path where Weathers gets there fast without plus stuff but everything is above average and he performs, projects as a #3/4

8:35

VottomanEmpire: Tell us M’s fans about Gilbert? How soon could he be in MLB, what rotation spot is his perceived ceiling? Quality of secondary offerings?

8:35

Eric A Longenhagen: Would say that he was worked hard this year and with more careful workload management I think he’s a 91-95mph guy consistently.

8:37

Bernie: Bo Jackson just ate Harold Reynolds soul.

8:37

Spicy Boy: Why would the Mariners pick Gilbert over Singer?

8:38

Kiley McDaniel: They focus on deliveries more than usual and more than a few teams wouldn’t take Singer for that reason, liked GIlbert for that reasons

8:40

Real Alex P. Keaton: Think the Rays or Royals are responsible for pushing Liberatore down the board with promises of a bigger bonus?

8:40

Kiley McDaniel: Trying to figure out Gorman/Liberatore’s slide and what KC/TB are doing with their first picks

8:42

Kiley McDaniel: Hearing Liberatore will go 16 to TB, Adams or Singer to Angels at 17

8:44

Eric A Longenhagen: Jordyn Adams at 17

8:45

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Great news for Rays fans, right?

8:45

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep.

8:45

Eric A Longenhagen: What a system

8:48

Seth: Probably a dumb question, but how do these players have the team hat already? Especially those at home. Like Liberatore was expected to go early so how does he have a Rays hat?

8:49

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes those are just laying around and other times the advisor buys like 30 hats, nbd

8:49

GregLPDX: Are there money issues with Liberatore falling this far or do the Rays have enough high picks to shuffle money around and make it work?

8:49

Kiley McDaniel: Have to have promised him well overslot a while ago so he could price himself appropriately for awhile and scare teams off. You can’t seem signable then change last minute and fool teams

8:49

Mike: Gorman to KC then?

8:51

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m so stoked to watch Adams this summer in AZL

8:51

Kiley McDaniel: Heard it will probably be Singer here

8:52

Eric A Longenhagen: Kevin Maitan might just retire when he sees Adams

8:52

Alec: I’m curious on your thoughts on this. So Carter Stewart has a crazy crazy crazy spin rate on his curve, but does it really matter if his spin axis isn’t efficient?

8:52

Eric A Longenhagen: It does not, or it matters less at least

8:53

Billy Beane: Question: Is there a justifiable baseball reason to take Murray over Swaggerty? The only thing that makes that make sense for me is he said he would take underslot money in exchange for being allowed to play football next year. From a baseball-only perspective, Murray over Swaggerty seems like a bad choice.

8:54

Kiley McDaniel: They are comparable talents, both have some contact questions, Swaggerty has more raw, Murrays is a better runner. Both pretty short track records on the big stage. Not like a crazy enormous gap, but there is one.

8:54

Paul Allen: Now that the Cubs are about 9 picks away, any word on who they might be taking?

8:55

Eric A Longenhagen: If we find this stuff out now it’s because they’re 2 picks away

8:58

Greyson: Can spin axis be changed through coaching without sacrifici much spin? Or is it pretty much fixed?

8:58

Eric A Longenhagen: Edgertronic cameras are being used during player dev to correct this

8:59

Hojo: Are there any senior execs who came up the ranks due to an incredible amateur scouting record? If so, what kind of success % are we talking about, and who are some players they vouched for aggressively?

8:59

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, lots of special assistants and most directors got there that way

8:59

John: Where does Naylor end up?

9:00

Kiley McDaniel: KC and TB among the handful of teams on him hard, so may be floated to the 30’s, more 20’s on talent

9:00

Dan: Singer is in the Florida dugout right now, probably doesn’t even know he got picked lol. Same for Rolison when he gets picked

9:00

Alec: Do you know what teams are “driveline” teams?

9:00

Eric A Longenhagen: Team that implement it don’t necessarily do it across the board to all pitchers. Cleveland, Dodgers, Texas, Angels are teams I ee with it most often in AZ

9:03

Daws: Who the hell is the guy the jays picked

9:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Power-hitting infielder

9:05

CHIMICHANGA: What do you guys think about Driveline?

9:05

Eric A Longenhagen: My thoughts are generally positive with apprehension about how the program affects the arm over many years. We just don’t know that yet.

9:05

Eric: Gorman is a steal

9:05

Eric A Longenhagen: agreed

9:06

Saint: who the Twins going for?

9:06

Kiley McDaniel: Heard Larnach, trying to confirm

9:07

Carl Gonzalez: What do you guys envision the Rays doing at 31, 32 now with Liberatore?

9:07

Eric A Longenhagen: Diversifying but not college-only

9:07

Vinicius: thoughts on singer stuff?

9:07

Kiley McDaniel: Would guess Casas and Naylor are top targets there

9:07

Kiley McDaniel: For TB

9:07

Eric A Longenhagen: We had Singer 13th on our board so this ‘fall’ isn’t crazy

9:07

Doc: Singer might be #1 in KCR’s system, no? And Kiley, do you really think Duvet could sign under slot?

9:08

Eric A Longenhagen: So, the way you guys wanna check this is via the BOARD team pages and our draft board

9:09

Eric A Longenhagen: Milwaukee with Turang next

9:09

RyanW: Kiley/Eric working the sources hard. Appelman gonna have to give them overslot on the next deal

9:09

Eric A Longenhagen: We have no other home tho!

9:10

Nicky: Where are you guys at now?

9:11

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in AZ Kiley is in hell

9:11

Baber: My wife is watching The Good Place while I am watching the draft. Is she winning? (I think she’s winning)

9:12

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on what baseball site you’re reading

9:13

Kiley McDaniel: Heard Ryan Rolison going next to the Rockies

9:14

Fish fingers: Larn-atch or larn-ack?

9:15

Eric A Longenhagen: LARN-ich

9:15

Disgruntled Reds Fan: Any possibility any of the players drafted so far won’t sign?

9:15

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it

9:16

: Which round 1 tumble was the most surprising?

9:16

Eric A Longenhagen: Gorman

9:19

Eric A Longenhagen: Seigler to nYY

9:21

Frank: Biggest reach in the top 15 picks?

9:21

Eric A Longenhagen: Groshans, but we like him

9:21

Slick Rick: Gorman was more surprising to you than Liberatore? That one shocked me.

9:21

Eric A Longenhagen: SO much of first few HS pitchers was about $$

9:21

Matt: Which player drafted will we see first in the MLB?

9:22

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think that player has been drafted yet and it’s probably a college reliever

9:24

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry been working the phones and trying to ruin the draft I’m back now

9:24

Tyler: Please tell me that Beer does not go to Boston

9:24

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, Triston Casas. Just as much if not more power and not a 20 athlete!

9:25

Matt: Does the Dbacks’ FO have a known draft approach or are they still new enough that they’re unpredictable?

9:25

Kiley McDaniel: Tend to lean toward model/certainty/analytics with higher picks, not scared of upside at lower picks. May be a college arm here if we’re just judging on that, but we’re efforting

9:25

Adam: Is Seigler a reach?

9:26

Kiley McDaniel: Not at all, was seen in this range by a couple teams. Rockies and Rays and Dodgers all on him

9:26

Kiley McDaniel: and we love him

9:26

Rick: Kileybomb?

9:26

Kiley McDaniel: KileyEricBomb? FGBOMB?

9:28

Kiley McDaniel: Anotha one

9:28

Joel: How is the money situation for Stewart looking? Overslot?

9:28

Kiley McDaniel: Would guess below, if he didn’t go 8, would go anywhere from 10 to maybe 15

9:28

Llewelyn: Ok siegler is officially my favorite player ever, switch throwing switch hitting catcher is amazing

9:28

Kiley McDaniel: It is really cool

9:28

Rick: *reggaeton horns*

9:29

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve really rebounded after botching the top 10 in the mock

9:29

Jack: Thank you for doing this guys

9:29

Kiley McDaniel: WE ALL DA BEST

9:29

Matthew: who is the best player available

9:32

Eric A Longenhagen:

Sure you want a live stream next year?

Yes (61.8% | 162 votes)
No, just keep Woj’ing (21.7% | 57 votes)
Do a live stream with a discrete phonecall cam that is muted (16.4% | 43 votes)

Total Votes: 262
9:33

Kiley McDaniel: This is the juncture where that’s dependent on your preferences, kinda a jumble at this point

9:33

Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch: All the Pre-draft analysis I heard today parroted everything you guys have written so clearly McDongenhagen has baited the trap as THE draft source, but will you guys ever throw “pull a Mayock” where you don’t publish a mock until like an hour before the draft? Ya know, just to f with the biters?

9:33

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure I agree with any of this but I’m game for doing things unusually

9:34

Jay: Where does Noah Naylor go? Is it impossible that he ends up in SD?

9:34

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve heard TB/KC/SEA/SD/CIN are the teams on him the most

9:34

Lark: Any word on whether Adams is going to be over slot?

9:34

Kiley McDaniel: Believe he will be, haven’t heard for sure

9:34

Peanuts Wilson: is it more important for you guys to break picks for teams with bigger fan bases?

9:34

Kiley McDaniel: We don’t approach it that way but it gets more engagement

9:34

Tim: Thoughts on Cubs pick Nico Hoerner?

9:35

Slick Rick: Any word on Alek Thomas? Chance he makes it to the second round to join his dad with the White Sox?

9:35

Kiley McDaniel: LA, CLE, HOU on him the most

9:35

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a stretch as SS (hoerner) 7 runner, makes hard contact. Chris owings not a bad comp

9:35

Eric A Longenhagen: All reports are on BOARD

9:35

Kiley McDaniel: if you don’t comp him to a HOFer he isn’t a first day player eric you won’t get on TV doing it like this

9:38

Not Finnigan: The hell is happening to McClanahan?

9:38

Eric A Longenhagen: He was terrible down the stretch in every way and tanked

9:42

Dan: ETA on Casey Mize?

9:42

Eric A Longenhagen: 2019 isn’t crazy, 2020 more likely

9:43

Spicy Boy: Either Kowar or McClanahan still available at 40?

9:43

Eric A Longenhagen: would be surprised if Kowar were

9:43

TracyBall: What college program are some teams leeary of drafting arms from?

9:43

Eric A Longenhagen: UVA

9:43

Eric A Longenhagen: Rice

9:44

Kiley McDaniel: Hey one of the best players in baseball was available at 26th overall imagine that

9:46

Kiley McDaniel: Heard the Nats weren’t on Denaburg late, now here they are taking him. Guess that was a smokescreen

9:47

RyanW: Every 1st rounder is a future HOFer. This is known

9:47

Kiley McDaniel: I heard about it on TV!

9:51

bhoov: Matt Mclain biggest reach yet?

9:51

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe as far as our board is concerned but I like the player very much

9:52

Giants fan: Is Bart going to take full slot?

9:52

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably something fairly close. His next home could have been 3

9:56

Jumbo: Which guys in the top three will sign underslot?

9:56

Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps Bohm cuts a bit?

9:56

Ed: It’s nearly 3am in Ireland. Can they speed this up a little?

9:56

Eric A Longenhagen: Almost literally top o’ the mornin?

9:56

Matt: Seigler good enough/advanced enough to make and Org list in the post-draft update?

9:56

Eric A Longenhagen: My grandma is a Harrity so I can say that

9:56

danny: possible names for the mariners in 2nd round?

9:56

Eric A Longenhagen: Lenny Torres

9:56

Kiley McDaniel: Seigler is a solid 45, so yes

9:57

Bookbook: Did Seattle make another Hultzen pick (bypassing better arms for a “safe” guy who’ll move fast theoretically)?

9:58

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah. Passing on Lindor sucked but I liked Hultzen as much as the next person that year and he was great that fall.

10:01

George: When are the draftee name rankings coming out? Who’s #1?

10:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Meh, maybe another site fits what you’re looking for?

10:01

Pete: How soon after the draft do you merge these guys on the board with their new teams?

10:02

Eric A Longenhagen: We wanna shade the pro guys up and down in addition to this, so probably a few weeks. Top 100 though, will be much sooner…

10:02

Matt: Surprised by Edwards or Kowar falling out of the 1st round?

10:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Kowar, especially.

10:02

justin bwar: Noah Naylor’s ceiling?

10:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Well-rounded offensive threat who catches

10:03

Eric: You had Boston taking a DH and they took Casas whom you projected to 1st. Were they looking for power or was it a coincidence?

10:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Coincidence

10:03

jh: How many “overdraught” jokes have been made about Beer?

10:03

Eric A Longenhagen: None but they’re funny

10:03

Homefish: Heard anything new on who the White Sox like at 46?

10:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Well all that talk of him going 4 was probably because they’re on him in the 2nd…

10:09

DraftDog27: You moved Owen White up on the board a couple days ago. Was that based on industry chatter, updated reports, or signability?

10:10

Eric A Longenhagen: Just kicking the board around and getting feedback. Guys in that range move significantly, numerically, because the talent is so clustered that late.

10:13

HashtagBeatLA.com: Hankins and Rocker still available because of signability?

10:14

Eric A Longenhagen: Also just prep arms falling naturally like always, but still spots for them to get paid here in comp round. These teams have $$

10:15

woodberry: Thoughts on the O’s GRod pick? Over reach, or savvy move?

10:15

Eric A Longenhagen: We like him, don’t 11th pick like him

10:16

Nick: Any 2019 draft names that have risen since your initial February rankings?

10:16

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, including a Georgia prep kid who threw 97 like last week, but those rankings are a mess in our internal system right now and I’m not comfortable sharing them rn

10:16

BG: Thanks for doing this guys, you’re the best!

10:16

Eric A Longenhagen: (thumbs up) maybe we’ll outsource a Twitch stream to a production company next year.

10:17

Eric A Longenhagen: Tell the Loading Ready Run folks we wanna come to Victoria and do a draft show at the Moonbase

10:17

Donny: Where do you see Yanks going at 61?

10:17

Eric A Longenhagen: We have them with Lavigne if he’s there, Hackenberg if he isn’t

10:17

Danny: will this next round ever start, this thing won’t end till midnight, talk about pace of play

10:18

Robb Nen’s labrum : Where do you see the Giants going at 45?

10:19

Kiley McDaniel: Heard them connected to Sean Hjelle from Kentucky weeks ago and they don’t have tons of money, so that makes sense

10:20

Cory: Hankins to the Tigers at 44? Would they be able to sign him?

10:20

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re gonna get someone LIKE that, enough HS guys on the board that some will fall.

10:22

Dick Hahn: Why do players rarely get grades of “65” or “75”. It seems to always go from 60 to 70 to 80.

10:22

Eric A Longenhagen: If it’s a ’75’ just slap an 8 on it

10:23

Eric A Longenhagen: 65 is less egregious, but I still have contempt for it

10:23

Rays Front Office: Upside, baby [drops mic]

10:23

Eric A Longenhagen: U2 sucks

10:23

Craig: Is there a significant difference between watching film of a prospect as opposed to seeing them in person?

10:23

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know if I’d have taken two guys with medical questions back to back there for TB

10:24

Kiley McDaniel: Yes there is, but in some cases if you already have seen the player and have context, the video can add to it

10:24

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, Florida is playing right now: http://www.espn.com/watch/player?bucketId=5060&id=3346691

10:25

BG: I got the U2 joke. I’m old.

10:25

Boggs: Is Tristan Beck gonna be picked tonight?

10:25

Kiley McDaniel: Call it a 65% chance

10:25

Cartman: How psyched is Tampa by their first two picks

10:26

Kiley McDaniel: Seems like they’re excited. Love the Libby pick. McClanahan is not the guy we’d take there but there’s ceiling. Schnell is risky but a solid pick at that point.

10:27

Cole Wilcox: So looks like I’m going to Georgia right?

10:27

Kiley McDaniel: Only a couple more spots then that becomes a yes. Cincy in the 2nd round is probably the last spot

10:27

Eric A Longenhagen: We thought the college pitching would be mostly gone at this point (down to Bubic basically) but I wouldn’t have expected the comp round to be full of them

10:27

Eric A Longenhagen: Emerson Hancock and Cole Wilcox at Georgia? Lawdy

10:33

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, we’re shutting it down. There will be text coverage tomorrow. Thanks for coming. Please keep reading our stuff. We might chat tomorrow or Wednesday as well and we’ll keep tweeting tonight…

We hoped you liked reading 2018 MLB Draft Chat by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Comments are closed.