2018 MLB Mock Draft v 3.0
Below is what will probably be our final full-text mock draft for 2018. Unless, over the weekend, something happens that necessitates longer explanation, a final mock on Monday will probably just have names and skeleton text. We think Casey Mize remains the favorite to go first, with the only potential pitfalls being a Mize injury at regionals or that Detroit reaches a breaking point with Mize’s bonus demands. We don’t think that scenario is likely, but that it has something like a 5-10% chance to happen at this point, so we’ve included the way we think the dominoes fall if it does happen, which ends up being only four picks changing. Remember, you can learn about the players we talk about here on our 2018 Draft Board.
1. Detroit Tigers – Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
Less likely alternate scenario: Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech
If something happens with Mize, then we think the pick is Joey Bart, but ultimately we think Detroit will pick Mize and sign him for a bonus between $7.4 million (slot at 2) and $8.1 million (slot at 1), likely toward the lower end of that range. The Tigers have been tied to Georgia prep center fielder Parker Meadows, Pennsylvania prep center fielder Mike Siani, and Mississippi prep righty J.T. Ginn for their second pick. Wisconsin OF Jarred Kelenic has been mentioned as a name they’d like to move back there as well, but we don’t think that’s feasible as he seems signable and has too many suitors between here and Detroit’s next pick.
2. San Francisco Giants – Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech
Less likely alternate scenario: Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
Again, it’s likely that Mize goes first, and if that happens we strongly believe Bart goes here. If Bart goes first, then this spot will be California prep righty Cole Winn, well under slot. We’re hearing the Giants would only take Mize here on a discount, and Mize’s camp won’t discuss one at 2, for reasons we’ll cover at the next pick. In the event the Giants go well under slot with Winn, they may try to move a mid-first-round prep talent like Florida 1B Triston Casas to their second pick, but they have been mentioned with Kentucky righty Sean Hjelle otherwise.
3. Philadelphia Phillies – Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State
Less likely alternate scenario: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
If we were Philly, we’d be trying to figure out a way to get Mize here because of how well he fits the hastening competitive timeline, as it’s possible he could be in a rotation as early as next year. Our rankings have the gap between Bohm (93rd on the updated top 100) and Mize (33rd) as pretty large, especially when considering the bonuses for Philly wouldn’t be anywhere near as large as the gap in talent.
The way this would happen would involve Detroit blinking at Mize’s price, which we (again, if we were the Phillies) could inflate by letting Mize’s camp know we’ve got an over-slot bonus waiting for him at the third pick. If Detroit is very conscious of the money left for their next pick, this could become a larger factor, though we’re told they still prefer Mize to Bart if money is no factor. It’s possible somewhere in the mid-$7 millions could do this, and Philly could make this work by going way under slot later (maybe a few times) by paying a $100,000 bonus at their next pick, in the 4th round, to a senior.
Philadelphia doesn’t have a bunch of comp or second-round picks that they need money to sign, so mortgaging part of the rest of their draft to take Mize and a bunch of college performers makes sense if you love Mize and his fit with your young club. In short, we think Philadelphia has incentive to try to move on Mize, and we’re hearing that if Mize doesn’t go first, this is where he will land. The buzz is that Mize’s camp is driving a hard bargain without real interest at pick No. 2, so this makes perfect sense given all the information we have, but there isn’t evidence the Phillies are actively trying to make this happen behind the scenes.
If Mize isn’t there, we’re told Bohm will be the pick, which is still overwhelmingly the most likely thing to happen. It’s worth noting that Bart may be the Phillies’ second-ranked player, but he won’t get to this pick in any scenario. One reason why we think Mize still goes first is that Bart’s fallback to going pick No. 1 is that he goes pick No. 2, so his price should be full slot at the 2nd pick and thus not much lower than Mize’s price. Detroit would bite the slightly larger-than-expected financial bullet and take Mize, whom they prefer to Bart.
4. Chicago White Sox – Brady Singer, RHP, Florida
We think there’s a split in the room between Singer and Nick Madrigal, but we think the more decorated people in the room lean this way.
5. Cincinnati Reds – Nick Madrigal, 2B, Oregon State
Whomever doesn’t go fourth will go here, with Arizona prep lefty Matthew Liberatore a distant third possibility. Both picks 4 and 5 likely play out this way even if it goes Bart-Winn-Mize and Bohm is available at these picks. The Reds have been tied to Canadian prep catcher Noah Naylor, Florida prep center fielder Connor Scott, Illinois prep center fielder Alek Thomas, and Georgia prep righties Kumar Rocker and Cole Wilcox for their second pick, though it’s possible none of them get there. Either Madrigal or Singer should be close to slot value here.
6. New York Mets – Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha HS (WI)
We think this is Kelenic or Florida third baseman Jonathan India, with late and hard momentum to Kelenic here for slightly below slot. If for some reason Mize doesn’t go No. 1 and goes at No. 3, that means Bohm is here, and they may prefer him to Kelenic, and it sounds like they do prefer him to India. They’ve been tied to some upside prep names in the second round like New York prep righty Lenny Torres, and they have been mentioned with Southern Miss righty Nick Sandlin in the third.
7. San Diego Padres – Ryan Weathers, LHP, Loretto HS (TN)
Less likely alternate scenario: Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State
The Padres bought a comp pick by taking on some of Phil Hughes’ contract, and we think they take an underslot prep arm here. The buzz is that San Diego wants to shave off of slot here unless Bohm gets to them, which sounds like a strong possibility if Philly doesn’t take Bohm at No. 3. In the event Bohm doesn’t get here, they’ll take the cheapest of the players they have evaluated similarly, and that’s likely Weathers over fellow prep arms Liberatore and Carter Stewart.
Kelenic is not in play here if he’s on the board, and it sounds like the Padres prefer Weathers to South Alabama center fielder Travis Swaggerty, who would also be below slot here. Liberatore might also be a slight underslot pick here if he isn’t otherwise going to be picked until No. 9 or 10, just at much less savings than Weathers. For their next couple picks, the Padres are targeting Torres, Rocker, Naylor, Oklahoma left fielder Steele Walker, Tennessee prep right fielder Ryder Green, Georgia prep right fielder Lawrence Butler, and Georgia prep righty Ethan Hankins.
8. Atlanta Braves – Nolan Gorman, 3B, O’Connor HS (AZ)
There are a few names in contention here, with nearly every prep arm (Winn, Stewart) on the board, along with Gorman and Kelenic and a sliding Swaggerty. It likely comes down to Gorman vs. the cheapest of the similar prep arms, and Gorman has the edge at this point.
9. Oakland Athletics – Travis Swaggerty, CF, South Alabama
This is the first spot and only one for awhile where USF lefty Shane McClanahan is the mix, so he could be a cut-rate option. If Gorman doesn’t go at No. 8, he’s a leading candidate here. We’ve heard conflicting information about if Oakland would take Swaggerty, but he’ll go somewhere between here and pick 12 or 13. India and Kelenic could be in the mix here, but we don’t think think any of the prep arms are. Given that Swaggerty’s market has dried up in the past few weeks, he could come at a discount here.
10. Pittsburgh Pirates – Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (AZ)
We’ve heard the Pirates tied to tons of names, but it sounds like Swaggerty, Liberatore, Stewart, Stetson righty Logan Gilbert, and North Carolina dual-sport sensation CF Jordyn Adams are the options, and all but one are on the board in this scenario. It sounds like the Pirates slightly prefer Liberatore to Stewart, but this one is still seen as tough to handicap by the industry. Florida prep righty Gunnar Hoglund and Thomas are targets for their comp pick.
11. Baltimore Orioles – Jonathan India, 3B, Florida
We’ve heard the Orioles all over the map. Weathers is a possibility if he gets here, and they’ve been heavy at recent starts by Ole Miss LHP Ryan Roliso and have also been tied to the top tier of college bats if one is still around, such as India in this mock. Baltimore has been mentioned with New Jersey prep right fielder Nick Decker in the second and Pennsylvania prep shortstop Sean Guilbe in the third.
12. Toronto Jays – Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
The Jays have been tied mostly to prep prospects (like Liberatore and Kelenic) that we have coming off ahead of them. They are also on Florida prep righty Mason Denaburg, are seen as the stopping point for a Swaggerty slide, are also on Ole Miss lefty Ryan Rolison, and have some interest in Rocker.
13. Miami Marlins – Xavier Edwards, 2B, North Broward Prep HS (FL)
The Marlins have been tied to all kinds of players, with Scott, Edwards and Casas the three most persistent names, Scott having the most late momentum. They had a recent workout that included Kelenic and Texas prep third baseman Jordan Groshans and another with Scott. They’ve also been mentioned all spring with Florida prep shortstop Blaze Alexander in the second round.
14. Seattle Mariners – Logan Gilbert, RHP, Stetson
It’s been mostly college names for Seattle here, and with Swaggerty and India off the board, Gilbert is the leading candidate considering his velo has been trending back up lately. Naylor is also a dark horse here, while Alabama prep shortstop Jeremiah Jackson is a target in the second round and perhaps Torres if he’s still around.
15. Texas Rangers – Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (FL)
Stewart had no chance to get here about a month ago, so the Rangers are glad that some prep arms we really like are going to slide, including Stewart, who closed his season on a bit of a down note. Adams and Texas prep righty Grayson Rodriguez are other top candidates here.
16. Tampa Bay Rays – Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL)
The Rays have a huge draft pool and have cast a wide net surrounding mostly the top prep players. They had two of their top evaluators at Denaburg’s sterling playoff outing vs. Casas, then they brought the whole draft room to his next outing in the state semifinals this week. They also brought most of their top evaluators to see McClanahan’s mediocre conference tournament appearance. Other targets for their multiple picks include: Indiana prep center fielder Nick Schnell, Florida prep center fielder Connor Scott, Thomas, Hoglund, Naylor, Adams, and Casas. We think they’ll mix in a college pick somewhere, like RHP Jackson Kowar of Florida.
17. Los Angeles Angels – Jordyn Adams, CF, Green Hope HS (NC)
The Angels were seen as a landing spot for Gilbert when his stuff was down midseason, but he’s bounced back and is off the board here. Los Angeles and Kansas City behind them seem to be the floor for Adams. The Angels had been somewhat risk-averse in their first draft under GM Billy Eppler, then riskier picks like Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, and Griffin Canning have all worked out better than expected, so it appears their risk tolerance has shifted. Jackson is a target in the second round.
18. Kansas City Royals – Nick Schnell, CF, Roncalli HS (IN)
The Royals, like the Rays, have a huge pool and are mostly targeting the top prep talents so they can use their draft pool to move players around. Schnell, Naylor, Adams, Casas, Groshans, Denaburg, Hoglund, and Georgia prep righties Wilcox, Hankins, and Rocker are the wide field of candidates in play here and the next couple picks, with Rolison also in the mix as a college player, likely only at this pick.
19. St. Louis Cardinals – Ryan Rolison, LHP, Ole Miss
The Cardinals have been tied mostly to college talent, and a few will slide with prep-oriented teams picking ahead of them. Rolison had been up-and-down the second half of the season, but St. Louis has a track record of improving inconsistent college starters. Regarding their next pick, St. Louis has been linked to Decker and Stanford SS Nico Hoerner.
20. Minnesota Twins – Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS (CA)
The Twins have been tied to all kinds of players but figure to be more value-oriented than focused on a specific demographic. Turang looked like a potential 1-1 guy a year ago, and he’s in play at a number of picks before and after this one.
21. Milwaukee Brewers – Trevor Larnach, RF, Oregon State
The Brewers are historically one of the most value-oriented, demographically open-minded clubs in the draft and, in this scenario, Larnach has slipped too far. The Brew Crew are also on Adams, Casas, and Scott.
22. Colorado Rockies – Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida
The Rockies prefer pitchers with a sinker/ground-ball lean, and Kowar fits the bill. Colorado has also been tied to a number of different players because, at this point in the draft, teams are ready for anything, but mostly college names have been mentioned. Specifically, their GM has seen Hankins in person.
23. New York Yankees – Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville HS (GA)
The Yankees have been heavily tied to Virginia lefty Daniel Lynch and Seigler at this pick, along with New Hampshire prep first baseman Grant Lavigne at this pick and their second pick, if he gets there. In the event he doesn’t, there’s buzz that Virginia prep catcher Adam Hackenberg, who has a significant seven-figure asking price, would be a candidate.
24. Chicago Cubs – Daniel Lynch, LHP, Virginia
The Cubs are kicking the tires on a number of prep players that don’t get to this pick in our scenario (Schnell, Seigler, Edwards, Turang), with two of their top evaluators at the Denaburg start vs. Casas. They’re also on some college players like Walker and Kowar. The Cubs are also on Georgia prep catcher Will Banfield, who may also get to their next pick.
25. Arizona Diamondbacks – Steele Walker, LF, Oklahoma
The D-Backs had their GM and VP at the Big 12 tourney to see Walker, who was scratched late with a reported injury. They’re also on Denaburg and Thomas and probably one of the Stanford prospects. Our guess is Hoerner.
26. Boston Red Sox – Triston Casas, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
The Red Sox have been tied mostly to college players, but in this scenario, a few of the top prep players slide through with some college picks just ahead of them, and they’ve been on Casas all spring. Rolison also could fit here.
27. Washington Nationals – Cole Wilcox, RHP, Heritage HS (GA)
The Nationals have been chasing mostly injured or tough-sign prep players. They prefer Wilcox to Denaburg and also have some interest in Ginn and Thomas.
28. Houston Astros – Alek Thomas, CF, Mount Carmel HS (IL)
The Astros were on Siani most of the spring but appear to have shifted to another northern prep center fielder in Thomas. Siani has a big number and he isn’t picked in this mock, as his odds are now higher than almost any other prep player of going to school. Schnell and Casas are targets but not here in this mock scenario, Hoglund is an option, and they’ve been tied to Alexander and Stanford righty Tristan Beck at their second pick.
29. Cleveland Indians – Greyson Jenista, RF, Wichita State
The Indians have multiple picks and some pool money to play with here. Two main targets, Walker and Thomas, have gone right ahead of them in the mock. Torres, Hankins, Texas prep righty Adam Kloffenstein, Hankins and Hoglund are all options for their first-day picks along with Arizona prep shortstop Jonathan Ornelas and California prep center fielder Osiris Johnson. We think a college bat fits in somewhere, and that demographic’s scarcity means they pounce on one here and let good high schoolers fall.
30. Los Angeles Dodgers – Parker Meadows, CF, Grayson HS (GA)
The Dodgers have been tied mostly to prep players that are mostly off the board in this scenario — Seigler, Schnell, Thomas, and Denaburg — but Meadows is on the board here.
Compensation Picks
31. Tampa Bay Rays – Connor Scott, CF, Plant HS (FL)
32. Tampa Bay Rays – Noah Naylor, C, St. Joan of Arc HS (CAN)
33. Kansas City Royals – Jordan Groshans, 3B, Magnolia HS (TX)
34. Kansas City Royals – Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS (TX)
35. Cleveland Indians – Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (GA)
Competitive Balance Round A
36. Pittsburgh Pirates – Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Fivay HS (FL)
37. Baltimore Orioles – Shane McClanahan, LHP, USF
38. San Diego Padres – Lenny Torres, RHP, Beacon HS (NY)
39. Arizona Diamondbacks – Nick Decker, RF, Seneca HS (NJ)
40. Kansas City Royals – Kumar Rocker, RHP, North Oconee HS (GA)
41. Cleveland Indians – Jake McCarthy, CF, Virginia
42. Colorado Rockies – Griffin Conine, RF, Duke
43. St. Louis Cardinals – Jeremy Eierman, SS, Missouri State
Second Round
44. Detroit Tigers – J.T. Ginn, RHP, Brandon HS (MS)
45. San Francisco Giants – Sean Hjelle, RHP, Kentucky
46. Chicago White Sox – Jeremiah Jackson, SS, St. Luke’s HS (AL)
47. Cincinnati Reds – Nico Hoerner, SS, Stanford
48. New York Mets – Kyle Isbel, CF, UNLV
49. Atlanta Braves – Owen White, RHP, Carson HS (NC)
50. Oakland Athletics – Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, Magnolia HS (TX)
51. Pittsburgh Pirates – Jonathan Ornelas, SS, Kellis HS (AZ)
52. Toronto Blue Jays – Seth Beer, DH, Clemson
53. Miami Marlins – Blaze Alexander, SS, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Seattle Mariners – Jameson Hannah, CF, Dallas Baptist
55. Texas Rangers – Cadyn Grenier, SS, Oregon State
56. Tampa Bay Rays – Matt McLain, 2B, Beckman HS (CA)
57. Los Angeles Angels – Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford
58. Kansas City Royals – Josh Breaux, C, McLennan JC (TX)
59. Minnesota Twins – Konnor Pilkington, LHP, Mississippi State
60. Milwaukee Brewers – Cole Sands, RHP, Florida State
61. New York Yankees – Grant Lavigne, 1B, Bedford HS (NH)
62. Chicago Cubs – Lyon Richardson, RHP, Jensen Beach HS (FL)
63. Arizona D’Backs – Blaine Knight, RHP, Arkansas
64. Boston Red Sox – Durbin Feltman, RHP, TCU
65. Washington Nationals – Zack Hess, RHP, LSU
66. Houston Astros – Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford
67. Cleveland Indians – Osiris Johnson, CF, Encinal HS (CA)
68. Los Angeles Dodgers – Tanner Dodson, RHP, California
69. Miami Marlins – Aaron Hernandez, RHP, Texas A&M CC
70. Oakland Athletics – Grant Little, 3B, Texas Tech
71. Tampa Bay Rays – Tyler Frank, 2B, Florida Atlantic
72. Cincinnati Reds – Zach Watson, CF, LSU
73. Milwaukee Brewers – Richie Palacios, 2B, Towson
74. San Diego Padres – Ryder Green, RF, Karns HS (TN)
75. St. Louis Cardinals – Cal Raleigh, C, Florida State
76. Colorado Rockies – Brennan Davis, CF, Basha HS (AZ)
77. Chicago Cubs – Will Banfield, C, Brookwood HS (GA)
78. Chicago Cubs – Gage Canning, CF, Arizona State
I’d rather the Blue Jays take another arm (Dodson, Richardson) at 52 than Beer.
What’s your best guess on when Luke Heimlich gets drafted?
Where would he have been drafted without the baggage?
Second round.
Second round
I don’t think heimlich gets drafted anywhere in the first rounds. Drafting him would be a huge PR disaster.
If he gets drafted it is probably a team like the Rays or As which gets no press anyway and is looking for cheap value regardless of the makeup. The rays especially under friedman were well known for getting talented players with makeup issues on a discount (Bush, Hamilton) so maybe they will do it again.
However heimlich has even worse baggage than Bush, so maybe even the rays will shy away from him and he doesn’t get drafted at all. But if he gets drafted it is probably a small market “progressive” franchise like the Rays or As. Friedman would also be a candidate but the dodgers owners would probably not allow him to do it because LA is a huge media market and the repercussions probably would greatly outweigh the benefit.
One quibble: Hamilton checked all the boxes when he was drafted #1 overall in 1999. His life/career didn’t start to unravel until prior to the 2001 season, after he was involved in an automobile accident (and subsequent drug abuse).
*( and consequential drug abuse)
Kiley tweeted that two advisers texted him about their clients having good workouts today for teams they were mocked to. Which prospects???
I think Kelenic to the Mets makes a lot of sense if they’re planning to tear it down and rebuild again. He would fit the timeline for their next window of contention.
True, but when you have the 6th overall pick you go with who you view as the BPA rather than base it off of your window of contention.
Organizations need so many players to fill out every level, players can always move down the defensive spectrum, and there are so very few sure things that BPA is pretty much always the best choice.
I mean, even if you had three outfielders as good as Mike Trout and there was a fourth available who was MLB ready, you would still take that guy and play him at first.
Please don’t pass up Madrigal for Singer, Rick. Thanks. Heck, I’d rather have Liberatore if we’re going pitcher.
For what its worth, and I’m just a stranger in a comment section, but I have heard that if Madrigal is there then he’s the pick.
Or…maybe you are Kenny Williams pulling a Colangelo.
If so, don’t be dumb Kenny. Tell Rick to pick Madrigal. Thanks.
This is the best, most detailed, and most believable mock I’ve ever seen by far. All the reasoning is just so interesting. Fantastic work.
Is there any chance India or Edwards falls to the Yankees at #23?
I’m going to go ahead and guess EXTREMELY slim to none.
Crazy stuff happens more often that you would think… I guess that falls under extremely slim
Looks like extremely slim won out, but they decided to pass up the opportunity. Oh well.
MLB teams are weird!
This is really excellent reporting. Thanks!
Which one of you is Mel Kiper, and which one is Todd McShay?
Who has the better hair?
Just ruminating on Mize:
What kind of leverage does he really have at 1.1/1.2/1.3, or really anywhere in the top 5?
Is his offer “give me what I want or I’ll go back to school” that compelling when depending on where he gets picked, his upside is 1-2 more spots. The bonus differences aren’t nothing ~$1.5M anywhere from 1 to 2 and 1 to 5, but I can’t see Mize and his agent turning down $7-8M just to try to move up a few slots. The risk seems much greater than the reward, especially considering Mize does have some record of being hurt.
I think if the Tigers do go with Mize, they shouldn’t offer him more than $1 over the #2 slot, saving them $500K right off the top to spend elsewhere.
I’d even wonder if the Tigers might consider taking Mize and offering him somewhere near the #3 slot to save even more. Would Mize really turn down $6M+ to try to go 1.1 again next year? And if he doesn’t sign, he could just end up with the Tigers again next year depending on if they get the #1 pick again (probably unlikely) or they take him at #2 with their comp pick for not signing him.
If Mize were being taken at like, 15th, then there is incentive perhaps to try to return to school to earn another $3-4M, but seems like at the top it just makes sense to sign.
He doesn’t have that much leverage but he can play out the tigers vs the Phillies. He won’t get more than slot but with the Phillies having not much talent on the board anyway for their second pick after forfeiting their second and third pick they can really pay up for him.i mean the Phillies really have nothing to safe money for, so they can pay like 7. 5m for him.
He might not get full first overall slot but he really has no reason to take less than 7m with Phillies waiting. I mean I guess the Phillies could say they offer him 7m and then lower that after he passes on the tigers but that would be extremely “Bush league” plus he could either go back to school like Appel who still went first overall or still get like 6.5 with the 4th pick.
I think it is very likely that he gets around 7.5 m.
How does he play out the Tigers vs. Phillies? Once he is picked, the tigers could just say we offer 6.5 million, that’s our offer.
The risk there is that he says no. The player has some leverage in the form of knowing that if a GM can’t sign draft picks, he will end up getting fired. And also, if you are picking Mize to offer under slot, you are also planning to spread some of that savings for later picks. If you don’t sign Mize, you lose all that slot money and it likely has a domino effect of making you unable to sign other players.
His only real leverage is that no team wants the embarrassment of having the first overall pick and not being able to sign them. Other than that, the downside for the team is that they wait a year and get a pick instead that’s one pick lower.
No player selected first overall has come within $ 1 million of the slot value. I think that changes this year, when the Tigers give Mize a record bonus of about $ 7.5 million, saving almost $ 600K for later.
I don’t understand why McClanahan is falling so far. That seems unlikely.
I had this thought too. As an o’s fan, this mock would be just fine. India and then McClanahan…sheesh. That’s a haul…
Ditto. Seems weird.
It’s impossible to see McClanahan outside of the first. Lefties with his combination of power and stuff are irresistible, even if the walks rose to an unacceptable level. The upside is near ace level while the likely downside is Andrew Miller, which would be an excellent value outside of the top 10. Worst case scenario is Tyler Glasnow.
Also, if Parker Meadows in on the board for the Pirates comp pick, they have to take him, right?
I don’t think you understand “downside” and “worst case scenario” very well…
I think you missed the word “likely” in front of downside.
My point is that a reasonable floor is dominant left handed reliever and at worst, he becomes a multi-year project that you still don’t give up on because of the potential.
So you think the Tigers, who are flush with arms already and completely devoid of positional players will draft two more pitchers with their top 2 picks. Good lord….
Of course you can. Casey Mize is the best player in this draft. You don’t pick the second best player just because you want to fill a need. Ginn is also a great pickup in the 2nd round. You don’t pick a worse player in that scenario.
You can never have enough good pitching prospects anyway…
That’s fine take Mize if they think he’s the best player. Need is not a factor in the top of the 1st round. But don’t try to suggest there will be some massive gap between the available pitchers and batters at pick 44. Eventually you have to start building a lineup.
Completely subjective that Mize is ‘the best player in this draft.’ He’s had the best season, but I think his ceiling is not as high as some would like at #1 IMO.
If you are the Phillies, exactly what could you do to draw Mize to the No 3 overall pick? Call up his agent and let him know that you’ll go $ 1 million over your No 3 slot for him?
I don’t think they can do that. Can they?
If you’re the Phillies and you want Mize, you tell him you’re willing to give him $7M+, then that might scare the tigers off if they can get Bart for a lot less. Detroit would obviously prefer Mize to Bart, but may rather have Bart if they can float someone (like kumar rocker) to their second round pick.
Problem is that TB and KC have two comp picks at the end of the first round apiece to go along with very high bonus pools, so good luck floating someone too significant. That’s why mize should be the pick
honestly , i’m still trying to figure out the draw to Madrigral. He’s 5’6″, has avg arm, not a ++ arm, has only 2 Hrs, and doesn’t play a premium position. We all know that 2B in MLB is now a very power oriented position. Also every year there is an OSU player hitting over .350 that gets picked high and they are never heard from again. What am i missing?
Astros found Myles Straw who is same build, leading AA in hitting, ++ runner, and a + arm in the 12’th round
Also kind of trying to figure out the how Bart is ranked so high. Hes a very good ball player but to me is a 1A pick at best. He’s already 225-230lbs and is going to struggle imo with his frame to stay behind the plate as he gets older as he will start adding the weight.
Already has swing and miss issues in college, and is not near the athlete posey was/is, to be justified to be drafted top 5 overall. To me has an unorthodox throw to 2nd.
Reminds me of a cross between Jon Denney from 2013 HS catcher draft, and Z Collins from 2016 draft out of miami .
The analytics is whats drawing everyone to Bart. I definitely get why he’s moving up everyones board. He’s got premium stats at a premium position. But let me remind everyone that was the same reason Z Collins went that high too, his analytics were through the roof.
This isn’t that hard folks, but these scouts get enamored with picks and stick with them and miss the red flag warnings. Bart couldn’t hit in the Cape Cod, only hitting .167 with wood bat. Z Collins couldn’t hit in Cape Cod either and opted to go home early as it was hurting his draft status.
Just a few of my thoughts.
And likewise, I’m still trying to figure out how this became known as such a deep draft.
How else do you get people to read/watch/care? I like when it wasn’t a televised fiasco better myself. There was a time when the NFL draft was fun to watch, but then it grew and grew and now I won’t watch a minute of it as I just can’t shut my brain down enough to not realize the non-stop hyperbole and scripted psuedo-analysis.
If I have to hear Harold Reynolds pretend to know one thing about any of these kids, I might poke my eyes out. I don’t mind the game making this into an event, but hire some people who actually know these kids, rather than the ML analysts who obviously don’t know these kids.
HR is no worse than any of the others… Its the ex-executives that really grind my gears. I don’t think that the people in front of the cameras generally know anything about what they are talking about – just like any other media outlet, which is what they are.
Agreed. Looks like a bad draft class to me – especially the college position players. HS impact position players are weak as well. The arms look good, but those are so tough to predict in the first place. I think Bart is better than Collins, so I don’t think that is entirely fair to Bart… I am sure there will be guys from this draft, they just aren’t stacked at the top of round one.
You mean like Ellsbury or Conforto? Those are the two that I can think of. It is really easy to look back a year or two later and find a late pick hitting in the minors – the trick is finding a guy that is likely to do that… which Madrigal is. The quick and easy answer is that Madrigal has a high floor – no other hitter has anything close to his floor. The thing that you are missing is the capitalization of the letter “I” in your last sentence of the first paragraph.