2018 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Rockies produced the third-highest run total in the majors this past season but also the fourth-lowest adjusted offensive runs mark. The most notable difference between those two metrics, of course, is that the latter accounts for park. Despite the club’s strong raw numbers, only three of Colorado’s regulars (Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Mark Reynolds) produced above-average batting lines. Only two (Arenado and Blackmon) recorded two or more wins.

At the moment, the prognosis for the 2018 season — among the team’s position players, at least — isn’t much better. Arenado (667 PA, 5.2 zWAR) and Blackmon (672, 3.8) continue to profile as durable, star-level talents. DJ LeMahieu (653, 2.1), meanwhile, offers average play. Beyond that triumvirate, however, no other hitter is forecast by Szymborski’s computer to exceed the two-win mark.

The club would appear to benefit from help most immediately in the corner outfield, at first base, and at catcher. With regard to the first two positions, what the club lacks in reliable quality, it possesses in possibly useful quantity, including David Dahl (473, 1.5), who was expected to be last year’s Opening Day left fielder before losing much of the season to injury.

Pitchers
For all the shortcomings of the club’s position-playing contingent, the Rockies nevertheless managed to qualify for a Wild Card spot. That was, in part, due to some fortunate sequencing — the club won five more games than BaseRuns suggested they “should” — but also because of the pitching staff. Colorado pitchers conspired to produce the eighth-most wins among the peers in the majors. Their collective 18.2 WAR mark represented the unit’s third-highest total in the history of the organization.

A group of young starters was largely responsible for that success, and almost all of them return in 2018. Jon Gray (141.0 IP, 81 ERA-, 3.2), German Marquez (167.1, 90, 3.2), Kyle Freeland (164.1, 94, 2.5), Tyler Anderson (105.0, 89, 2.0), and Chad Bettis (111.2, 100, 1.5) are both (a) likely to constitute the club’s Opening Day rotation and (b) forecast to produce wins at an average-or-better rate.

As for the bullpen, it has endured a couple notable defections in Greg Holland (47.1 IP, 72 ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) and deadline acquisition Pat Neshek (49.2, 69, 1.3) but remains quite solid. Adam Ottavino (48.0, 93, 0.5) is likely to receive save opportunities, although Carlos Estevez (65.1, 80, 1.1), Jake McGee (51.2, 76, 1.1), and Chris Rusin (76.1, 78, 1.5) all appear capable of handling high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
Beyond Dahl, the club features a number of young players with varying levels of upside. Neither Garrett Hampson (567 PA, 1.0 zWAR) nor former No. 3 pick Brendan Rodgers (477, 1.1) is likely to break camp with the club, but both profile as one-win players already. Ryan McMahon (557, 1.0) and Mike Tauchman (524, 1.0), meanwhile, have both appeared previously in the majors and seem to have a case for doing so again.

On the pitching side, one finds that both Jeff Hoffman (142.0, 2.0) and Antonio Senzatela (149.1, 2.4) have been omitted from the depth-chart image below. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, either could serve as an able member of the rotation, giving the club further depth in that area. Young right-hander Ryan Castellani (146.0, 1.4), meanwhile, receives the top WAR projection of any rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.