2019 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

The outfield remains the primary weakness of the team, at least in ZiPS’ digital eyes. Consisting of Kyle Schwarber (.233/.343/.472, 1.6 WAR projection), a center field combo of Albert Almora Jr. (.271/.308/.383, 1.0 WAR) and Ian Happ (.236/.335/.435, 1.4 WAR), Jason Heyward (.260/.331/.389, 1.9 WAR), and the occasional appearances by Ben Zobrist (.261/.335/.386), the group is serviceable, but unimpressive. The spares (generally Happ and Zobrist) are at least adequate, and the outfield isn’t at the Darren Aronofsky-esque levels of bleakness as in San Francisco, which is something.

If only an outfielder was available in the free agent market, one who could bring a significant boost to a contending team!

The recent comments from team executives about the club being out of money should be of significant concern for Cubs fans. While it likely isn’t literally true, “can’t” spend money and “won’t” spend money tend to have about the same result on the roster. The Cubs can win the division without spending more, but they can’t put any prognosticating daylight between themselves and the Cardinals or Brewers without doing so.

The infield, naturally, is a strength, with three players at any given time among the top five at their positions (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez, obviously). Baez’s positional flexibility is a significant plus for the team, particularly with Addison Russell missing the first month of the season due to violating the league’s domestic abuse policy. While signing Manny Machado and ridding themselves of Russell entirely would have perhaps been the least awkward resolution of the team’s infield situation, it wouldn’t have happened without the team finding some that money they’re out of to spend and certainly won’t happen now that Machado is a Padre. David Bote’s .238/.306/.401 line is very close to his 2018 numbers, and you can’t ask for much more from a fifth infielder.

Pitchers

There’s good news here! The team won 95 games in 2018 — from the way the team was covered, you’d think they went 70-92 — but little of that could be credited to the starting pitching. This was especially true in the first half, when the team went 55-38 and the rotation combined for a mere 2.9 WAR, 27th in baseball and behind every team that was in contention at that point (the Braves were 17th and the A’s 22nd, but the latter had only recently started their crazy run).

Things went better in the second half, with the Cubs rotation combining for 6.1 WAR, ninth in baseball. A lot of this had to do with the acquisition of Cole Hamels, who put up a 2.36 ERA and 3.42 FIP for the Cubs, far better results than I expected given his struggles in Texas. It’s becoming commonplace, in light of the team’s lack of spending, to criticize picking up the Hamels option, but I think that misses the point considerably. The Cubs were on the hook for the $6 million buyout in any case, so it was really only a $14 million decision, and the team would have been hard-pressed to do much better on a one-year, $14 million contract in free agency. And really, if they won’t pursue Bryce Harper now, would a one-year, $14 million contract have really changed that? And let’s not forget that the rotation’s Plan B’s drop off very quickly after Mike Montgomery.

ZiPS projects the pen to be better than most projection systems do. It’s not the most exciting group, with no Aroldis Chapman or prime Wade Davis closing out games. But Brandon Morrow’s expected to be back some time in May and Xavier Cedeno is one of the offseason’s sneakier pickups — he’s a pitcher with a 3.45 FIP over the last three seasons and a 2.95 FIP in 2018, who somehow seemed to generate almost no interest after being non-tendered.

Bench and Prospects

The bench remains a team strength, with Bote, Zobrist, the center fielder who is not starting on the given night, and Victor Caratini all able to start without embarrassing anybody when needed, which is more than you can say about most teams’ benches. Daniel Descalso’s also around with Russell out, but it’ll be hard for the team to carry Bote and Descalso, assuming Russell’s return happens as expected.

Where the trouble starts is if something unforeseen happens, and something unforeseen usually does. Players underperform and, more seriously, players get injured, and the latter can wreak havoc on even the prettiest depth charts. I’m not quite as optimistic about the team’s spares, especially big curveballer Duncan Robinson. The team’s more interesting high-minors pitching prospects (Adbert Alzolay and Duane Underwood) still have work to do before reaching the bigs and ZiPS is decidedly not on Team Tseng.

And the spare hitters are even less exciting. Former Met and minor league free agent signing Phillip Evans occupies far higher a spot in the rankings than the team should be comfortable with. In terms of minor-league outfielders, only Mark Zagunis (.238/.351/.378, 0.6 WAR) and ex-Twin Johnny Field (.239/.283/.407, 0.1 WAR) even get above-replacement projections. That two-time former Cubs Chris Coghlan — who is turning 34, was a non-factor in 2018 as an Iowa Cub with shoulder problems, and is not even signed by the team — looks so relatively useful is troubling.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ Depth Charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in Triple-A or .300 in Double-A, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.