2019 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

If only an outfielder was available in the free agent market, one who could bring a significant boost to a contending team!

Shoot, I’m self-plagiarizing. Let me try again.

If only an outfielder was available in the free agent market, one who could bring nearly as much of a boost to a rebuilding team as Bryce Harper could!

The White Sox have all but held a press conference to proclaim that they’re out on Harper and it’s a shame, really. While I like Manny Machado slightly better on a pure value basis (the loss of whom not doubt still stings on the south side), Harper’s upside is probably less “known” than Machado’s, so he would be an interesting play for a rebuilding team. The White Sox have been unable to develop their own Bryce Harper, because, well, it’s really hard to develop Bryce Harpers. Harper would not have gotten this team to the playoffs in 2019 without some very unexpected things happening, but you can say much the same about Machado. Plus, the White Sox have exactly one interesting outfielder on the roster at the moment, whereas Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, and Tim Anderson could all conceivably contribute to a postseason contender.

Don’t be alarmed by the “1.9” next to Jimenez’ name on the depth chart. The reason that number is so low is that ZiPS has questions about Jimenez’s outfield defense, and the depth chart is only projecting Jimenez for 455 plate appearances. More boxes to check and all that! ZiPS has no questions about Jimenez’s ability to rake, however. A .289/.338/.525 projected line with a 133 OPS+ and 28 home runs would get Eloy Rookie of the Year votes even if he played defense like Todd Hundley in an Ambien daze.

The projected upside for Moncada goes a bit lower every year, with the computer as frustrated with his inconsistent attempts at improving his plate discipline as the White Sox likely are. Just as disappointing, Moncada was a roughly league-average player in 2018, but it took a .344 BABIP for him to maintain a mere .235 BA. If he can’t bring that number up, he needs 10-15 home runs or a shockingly good glove at third to move him out of the “frustratingly average” category. Average players have value, but the White Sox were hoping for more.

I’m avoiding talking about the rest of the outfield because, well, you can guess why.

Pitchers

It’s hard to overestimate the hit the White Sox took from the loss of Michael Kopech, both in terms of the injury itself and the lost development time for a pitcher who still needs some refinement. I briefly considered excluding the Kopech projection out of mercy, but I didn’t want to overturn the precedent I’ve set of showing projections for pitchers missing the season due to injury. Kopech has the most bifurcated ZiPS projections I can remember; instead of some variant of a pretty little curve over some projected midpoint, it was bimodal.

In layman’s terms, ZiPS thought there was a better chance that Kopech would be a star or a scrub than simply a league-average pitcher. In the last year, ZiPS has been leaning more to the good side than the bad. Kopech had progressed to the point where, in terms of his rest-of-career value, ZiPS saw him as the No. 14 pitcher in the majors. The only other rookie-eligible pitcher in the top 50 is Mike Soroka.

As usual, ZiPS is high on Carlos Rodon and probably won’t be dissuaded until he has a whole healthy season and struggles. ZiPS is much less confident when it comes to Reynaldo Lopez, with the system not seeing enough historical evidence, nor anything specific to Lopez, to convince it that him exceeding his FIP by three-quarters of a run is his natural level of ability. That’s not to say that the White Sox should give up on him — you should give pitchers like this every chance to prove the numbers wrong — but it is a reason to mute the excitement a bit.

Bench and Prospects

I’ve already talked a lot about Jimenez and Kopech, given how significant Jimenez will be to the 2019 team and Kopech would have been prior to his injury. While the center field and left field projections are almost shockingly bleak, ZiPS does think that Luis Alexander Basabe is the best option in center in the system right now. ZiPS projects Nick Madrigal as a high-floor second baseman, and through all the injuries, still sees Luis Robert peaking with an OPS+ around 100. Both Dane Dunning and Dylan Cease have passed the 90 ERA+ mark in the projections; ZiPS thinks the former is the second-best pitcher in the rotation right now.

I talked about it in Chicago’s Elegy, but 2018 was a season that would try any team’s patience. With so many injuries and setbacks, the White Sox aren’t that much closer to knowing what their future core will look like than they were a year ago. It’s easy to feel very down on the team right now, given the projections and the news that neither Harper or Machado will be paid a guaranteed rate by the Sox over the next decade. But there remains a lot of talent in the system that could turn the team around very quickly. It’s just not likely to be in 2019.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ Depth Charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Eloy Jimenez R 22 LF 130 505 67 146 27 4 28 71 36 111 0 2
Yoan Moncada B 24 2B 145 561 76 131 24 5 21 61 70 208 19 8
Jose Abreu R 32 1B 140 555 70 152 33 2 23 87 36 119 2 0
Yolmer Sanchez B 27 3B 154 557 63 136 28 7 11 58 39 133 11 6
Tim Anderson R 26 SS 154 611 78 154 27 5 18 63 24 167 25 6
Yonder Alonso L 32 1B 134 444 61 109 18 0 23 66 57 122 1 0
Danny Mendick R 25 SS 128 454 52 100 20 1 11 44 40 114 13 7
Jose Rondon R 25 SS 117 434 49 102 19 3 13 49 23 119 8 6
Luis Alexander Basabe B 22 CF 122 456 52 99 15 5 14 44 46 170 12 12
Welington Castillo R 32 C 88 305 31 72 12 0 12 38 20 93 1 0
Leury Garcia B 28 LF 94 316 35 82 12 3 6 35 14 83 13 4
James McCann R 29 C 114 394 34 91 14 1 10 44 26 115 0 2
Brandon Guyer R 33 RF 100 240 31 54 12 1 7 26 18 59 2 1
Nick Madrigal R 22 2B 99 364 40 93 16 2 3 23 17 38 12 16
Luis Robert R 21 CF 75 267 27 63 11 1 5 18 22 100 17 8
Zack Collins L 24 C 112 398 52 70 15 1 14 45 74 191 2 1
Laz Rivera R 24 SS 117 472 52 110 20 2 7 40 13 111 11 8
Johnny Giavotella R 31 2B 88 314 36 80 16 2 4 28 23 49 3 2
Nick Delmonico L 26 LF 94 323 41 73 17 2 12 38 33 99 2 1
Jon Jay L 34 RF 131 433 58 108 16 3 3 28 29 91 3 2
Matt Skole L 29 1B 118 420 52 88 19 1 16 48 51 145 2 1
Patrick Leonard R 26 3B 123 455 49 97 23 1 10 44 35 168 5 2
D.J. Peterson R 27 3B 118 449 49 100 20 1 17 52 26 143 2 1
Seby Zavala R 25 C 101 382 42 81 17 1 12 43 27 139 1 2
Daniel Palka L 27 LF 126 469 62 104 17 2 27 69 38 180 5 4
Luis Gonzalez L 23 CF 113 469 52 102 23 4 10 45 38 131 6 7
Jake Elmore R 32 2B 106 324 34 75 9 1 1 21 40 65 8 5
Alex Presley L 33 LF 83 298 30 68 9 2 4 22 20 73 3 3
Ryan Brett R 27 CF 71 266 27 58 11 1 5 23 9 78 6 2
Alfredo Gonzalez R 26 C 72 243 23 48 6 0 3 16 20 79 2 1
Adam Engel R 27 CF 135 466 52 94 18 4 9 36 30 159 20 8
Ryan Cordell R 27 CF 84 320 34 64 11 3 9 32 19 110 8 3
Gerson Montilla R 29 3B 89 330 34 72 10 0 10 34 20 85 3 3
Chris Johnson R 34 3B 70 203 18 45 8 0 5 20 10 77 1 0
Charlie Tilson L 26 CF 103 385 37 90 11 4 2 28 25 81 13 6
Jacob May B 27 CF 97 372 34 83 13 2 2 24 20 107 17 10
Ryan Goins L 31 2B 107 309 30 66 13 1 5 29 23 85 3 2
Casey Gillaspie B 26 1B 105 386 44 80 17 1 12 40 38 133 1 1
Todd Cunningham B 30 RF 93 301 37 69 13 2 3 24 29 60 9 5
Gavin Sheets L 23 1B 124 480 55 111 19 1 7 49 43 109 1 0
Micker Adolfo R 22 RF 102 391 46 81 17 2 13 46 28 161 2 1
Bryant Flete B 26 2B 104 358 36 72 12 2 5 25 29 114 4 5
Blake Rutherford L 22 RF 118 471 48 106 20 5 6 44 29 119 10 8
Joel Booker R 25 LF 114 455 47 95 15 1 5 30 28 149 17 11
Mitch Roman R 24 2B 118 437 39 86 11 2 3 27 26 147 12 5
Keon Barnum L 26 1B 97 352 34 63 10 1 14 40 21 170 0 0
Trey Michalczewski B 24 2B 128 468 44 90 18 4 9 44 31 184 4 2
Mason Robbins L 26 RF 107 417 36 96 12 3 4 30 11 93 3 2

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Eloy Jimenez 547 .289 .338 .525 133 .236 .322 6.7 -7 2.3 Greg Luzinski
Yoan Moncada 639 .234 .320 .406 99 .173 .331 4.6 -2 2.0 Rickie Weeks
Jose Abreu 609 .274 .330 .465 116 .191 .312 5.7 -3 1.7 Juan Gonzalez
Yolmer Sanchez 609 .244 .299 .379 86 .135 .303 4.0 6 1.4 Robb Quinlan
Tim Anderson 644 .252 .284 .401 86 .149 .319 4.3 -1 1.4 Shawon Dunston
Yonder Alonso 505 .245 .333 .441 111 .196 .288 5.3 -3 1.2 Paul Sorrento
Danny Mendick 506 .220 .292 .341 74 .121 .271 3.4 5 0.9 Angel Gonzalez
Jose Rondon 465 .235 .275 .382 79 .147 .295 3.6 4 0.9 Jose Castro
Luis Alexander Basabe 513 .217 .293 .364 80 .147 .313 3.4 4 0.7 Brad Snyder
Welington Castillo 330 .236 .288 .393 86 .157 .300 4.0 -2 0.6 Terry Kennedy
Leury Garcia 340 .259 .298 .373 84 .114 .335 4.2 5 0.6 Mariano Duncan
James McCann 427 .231 .284 .348 73 .117 .301 3.4 1 0.4 Mike DiFelice
Brandon Guyer 277 .225 .322 .371 91 .146 .270 4.2 0 0.4 Mike Devereaux
Nick Madrigal 399 .255 .303 .335 76 .080 .279 3.1 6 0.3 Alberto Callaspo
Luis Robert 299 .236 .312 .341 81 .105 .358 3.8 -1 0.3 Jimmy Wynn
Zack Collins 478 .176 .305 .324 74 .148 .290 3.2 -5 0.2 Brian Deak
Laz Rivera 512 .233 .277 .328 66 .095 .291 3.1 4 0.1 Diory Hernandez
Johnny Giavotella 344 .255 .304 .357 82 .102 .291 3.9 -2 0.1 Dave Berg
Nick Delmonico 363 .226 .304 .402 93 .176 .288 4.3 -3 0.0 Danny Putnam
Jon Jay 482 .249 .316 .321 77 .072 .310 3.6 4 0.0 Dick Porter
Matt Skole 476 .210 .298 .374 84 .164 .278 3.8 1 0.0 Steve Neal
Patrick Leonard 498 .213 .275 .334 67 .121 .314 3.2 3 -0.1 Sean Mcnally
D.J. Peterson 480 .223 .269 .385 78 .163 .287 3.6 -2 -0.1 Josh Klimek
Seby Zavala 417 .212 .269 .356 71 .144 .299 3.2 -4 -0.2 Bill Hayes
Daniel Palka 512 .222 .281 .439 94 .217 .294 4.2 -6 -0.2 Doug DeVore
Luis Gonzalez 515 .217 .277 .348 71 .130 .280 3.1 1 -0.3 Eric Verbryke
Jake Elmore 372 .231 .322 .275 68 .043 .287 3.0 -2 -0.3 Jose Flores
Alex Presley 323 .228 .280 .312 64 .084 .290 3.0 5 -0.4 Armando Rios
Ryan Brett 281 .218 .250 .323 57 .105 .290 2.9 2 -0.4 Kyle Todd
Alfredo Gonzalez 270 .198 .265 .259 46 .062 .280 2.3 2 -0.4 Brad Erdman
Adam Engel 512 .202 .261 .315 58 .114 .285 2.9 3 -0.5 Fletcher Bates
Ryan Cordell 345 .200 .246 .338 59 .138 .274 2.9 1 -0.5 Michael Mooney
Gerson Montilla 357 .218 .264 .339 65 .121 .264 3.0 0 -0.6 Carlo Colombino
Chris Johnson 215 .222 .260 .335 63 .113 .331 3.1 -3 -0.6 Wes Helms
Charlie Tilson 418 .234 .283 .299 61 .065 .291 3.0 0 -0.6 Clay Timpner
Jacob May 403 .223 .268 .285 53 .062 .308 2.6 4 -0.7 Tony Triplett
Ryan Goins 339 .214 .266 .311 59 .097 .279 2.8 -1 -0.8 Kevin Baez
Casey Gillaspie 428 .207 .278 .350 72 .142 .282 3.3 0 -0.8 Steve Carver
Todd Cunningham 347 .229 .313 .316 75 .086 .277 3.4 -5 -0.8 Doug Dascenzo
Gavin Sheets 533 .231 .297 .319 70 .088 .286 3.3 1 -0.9 Bryan Hansen
Micker Adolfo 429 .207 .273 .361 73 .153 .313 3.3 -5 -1.1 Edgardo Baez
Bryant Flete 396 .201 .272 .288 55 .087 .280 2.5 -2 -1.2 Jason Camilli
Blake Rutherford 504 .225 .272 .327 64 .102 .289 3.0 1 -1.4 Derrick May
Joel Booker 501 .209 .270 .279 52 .070 .299 2.5 3 -1.8 Juan Piniella
Mitch Roman 475 .197 .246 .252 38 .055 .289 2.1 2 -1.8 Gilberto Mejia
Keon Barnum 378 .179 .228 .332 52 .153 .292 2.5 -2 -1.9 Bryon Gainey
Trey Michalczewski 512 .192 .249 .306 52 .113 .295 2.5 -6 -2.0 Chris Shaddy
Mason Robbins 432 .230 .248 .302 51 .072 .288 2.6 -3 -2.3 Manny Jimenez

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Michael Kopech R 23 9 8 3.93 28 28 139.7 123 61 14 73 157
Carlos Rodon L 26 8 7 4.15 23 23 130.0 126 60 16 56 114
Dane Dunning R 24 6 6 4.35 19 19 101.3 102 49 13 39 85
Ivan Nova R 32 8 9 4.63 24 24 136.0 150 70 24 30 100
Reynaldo Lopez R 25 8 9 4.65 31 30 170.3 172 88 26 69 140
Dylan Cease R 23 7 8 4.50 22 22 112.0 106 56 14 61 112
Alex Colome R 30 6 4 3.46 67 0 65.0 60 25 6 21 63
Jordan Guerrero L 25 8 10 4.92 25 25 126.3 140 69 17 54 93
Jace Fry L 25 3 2 3.42 59 0 55.3 45 21 3 28 65
Tanner Banks L 27 8 10 4.95 23 23 127.3 149 70 18 37 70
Miguel Gonzalez R 35 6 8 4.91 21 21 113.7 126 62 17 37 73
Bernardo Flores L 23 7 9 4.84 25 25 135.7 156 73 19 40 78
Manny Banuelos L 28 6 7 4.66 29 16 94.7 93 49 13 51 92
Lucas Giolito R 24 9 12 5.03 30 30 159.3 161 89 22 77 119
Kodi Medeiros L 23 6 8 4.94 26 21 124.0 128 68 15 73 105
Donn Roach R 29 6 8 4.92 21 19 113.3 130 62 15 36 60
Juan Minaya R 28 4 4 4.02 63 0 65.0 59 29 6 33 67
Kelvin Herrera R 29 3 3 3.93 55 0 50.3 49 22 7 15 49
Jimmy Lambert R 24 7 9 4.98 20 20 103.0 112 57 16 39 77
Chris Volstad R 32 5 7 4.84 28 14 100.3 116 54 13 27 53
Aaron Bummer L 25 4 3 4.08 67 0 64.0 62 29 6 29 57
Evan Marshall R 29 1 1 4.10 34 1 37.3 40 17 4 13 29
Ian Hamilton R 24 5 4 4.18 53 0 60.3 58 28 8 21 55
Dylan Covey R 27 8 11 5.26 30 25 133.3 146 78 19 61 91
Nate Jones R 33 2 2 3.93 37 0 34.3 31 15 5 13 37
Matt Tomshaw L 30 7 10 5.18 25 24 132.0 159 76 22 34 79
Randall Delgado R 29 3 3 4.30 43 1 52.3 52 25 7 22 45
Matt Foster R 24 3 4 4.37 46 0 55.7 55 27 7 26 52
Jordan Stephens R 26 7 9 5.40 25 25 125.0 136 75 22 55 100
Colton Turner L 28 4 5 4.63 37 2 56.3 57 29 7 27 47
Zack Burdi R 24 2 2 4.38 22 0 24.7 21 12 3 16 28
T.J. House L 29 5 7 5.45 19 15 77.7 87 47 9 45 50
James Shields R 37 7 11 5.31 27 27 154.3 164 91 30 64 117
Bruce Rondon R 28 3 3 4.60 47 0 43.0 38 22 4 31 51
Robbie Ross Jr. L 30 1 1 4.66 35 0 36.7 35 19 3 24 34
Jacob Lindgren L 26 0 1 4.97 11 0 12.7 11 7 2 11 15
Alec Hansen R 24 5 7 5.40 19 19 93.3 93 56 14 67 87
Caleb Frare L 25 3 4 4.79 50 0 56.3 49 30 7 42 65
Tyler B. Johnson R 23 4 5 4.85 43 0 52.0 46 28 8 32 62
Jose Ruiz R 24 2 2 4.82 50 0 56.0 55 30 7 35 56
Thyago Vieira R 25 2 2 5.16 39 0 45.3 44 26 6 27 41
Zach Thompson R 25 3 4 5.12 49 0 65.0 67 37 8 40 52
Ryan Burr R 25 3 4 5.20 45 0 55.3 54 32 7 40 50
Carson Fulmer R 25 7 11 5.68 31 21 107.7 116 68 17 69 85
Asher Wojciechowski R 30 5 8 6.01 25 17 103.3 117 69 26 39 93
Spencer Adams R 23 7 12 6.01 27 27 139.3 171 93 28 57 76

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Michael Kopech 616 10.12 4.70 0.90 .301 109 92 3.99 2.4 J.R. Richard
Carlos Rodon 571 7.89 3.88 1.11 .292 103 97 4.47 1.9 Mickey McDermott
Dane Dunning 444 7.55 3.46 1.15 .296 98 102 4.47 1.3 Kevin Brown
Ivan Nova 584 6.62 1.99 1.59 .297 92 108 4.77 1.2 Mickey Weston
Reynaldo Lopez 747 7.40 3.65 1.37 .290 89 112 4.85 1.2 Aaron Thompson
Dylan Cease 501 9.00 4.90 1.13 .299 92 109 4.57 1.0 Dick Ruthven
Alex Colome 275 8.72 2.91 0.83 .297 124 81 3.52 1.0 Jeff Tam
Jordan Guerrero 570 6.63 3.85 1.21 .308 87 115 4.88 0.8 Jake Chapman
Jace Fry 238 10.57 4.55 0.49 .300 125 80 3.13 0.8 Brian Snyder
Tanner Banks 565 4.95 2.62 1.27 .303 87 116 4.95 0.7 Bill Latham
Miguel Gonzalez 500 5.78 2.93 1.35 .296 87 115 4.92 0.7 Pat Ahearne
Bernardo Flores 600 5.17 2.65 1.26 .301 86 117 4.88 0.7 Jeff Mutis
Manny Banuelos 426 8.75 4.85 1.24 .302 89 112 4.77 0.6 Eddie Oropesa
Lucas Giolito 716 6.72 4.35 1.24 .286 82 121 5.13 0.5 Scott Holman
Kodi Medeiros 571 7.62 5.30 1.09 .305 84 119 4.96 0.5 Ken Chase
Donn Roach 502 4.76 2.86 1.19 .299 84 119 4.92 0.4 Don Nottebart
Juan Minaya 287 9.28 4.57 0.83 .299 107 94 4.00 0.4 Ruddy Lugo
Kelvin Herrera 214 8.76 2.68 1.25 .298 109 92 4.02 0.4 Antonio Alfonseca
Jimmy Lambert 458 6.73 3.41 1.40 .300 83 120 4.98 0.4 Jake Joseph
Chris Volstad 441 4.75 2.42 1.17 .300 86 117 4.73 0.4 Steve Sundra
Aaron Bummer 281 8.02 4.08 0.84 .301 105 95 4.09 0.3 Pete Cappadona
Evan Marshall 164 6.99 3.13 0.96 .310 101 99 4.19 0.3 Steve Comer
Ian Hamilton 259 8.20 3.13 1.19 .291 102 98 4.24 0.3 Chad Bradford
Dylan Covey 601 6.14 4.12 1.28 .299 81 123 5.12 0.3 Tim Byron
Nate Jones 147 9.70 3.41 1.31 .289 109 92 4.20 0.2 Matt Karchner
Matt Tomshaw 586 5.39 2.32 1.50 .309 80 125 5.07 0.2 Mark Hendrickson
Randall Delgado 228 7.74 3.78 1.20 .294 96 104 4.49 0.1 Ed Farmer
Matt Foster 247 8.41 4.20 1.13 .302 98 102 4.48 0.1 Rich DeLosSantos
Jordan Stephens 564 7.20 3.96 1.58 .300 79 126 5.33 0.1 Mike Mills
Colton Turner 252 7.51 4.31 1.12 .298 92 108 4.69 0.1 Chris Cumberland
Zack Burdi 110 10.22 5.84 1.09 .290 95 106 4.53 0.0 Brad Voyles
T.J. House 364 5.79 5.21 1.04 .306 79 127 5.30 0.0 Roger Deago
James Shields 686 6.82 3.73 1.75 .286 78 128 5.54 0.0 Steve Trachsel
Bruce Rondon 197 10.67 6.49 0.84 .312 93 108 4.29 0.0 Mike MacDougal
Robbie Ross Jr. 171 8.35 5.89 0.74 .305 92 109 4.73 0.0 Jim Brewer
Jacob Lindgren 59 10.66 7.82 1.42 .290 86 116 5.44 -0.1 Mark Acre
Alec Hansen 438 8.39 6.46 1.35 .298 77 130 5.55 -0.1 Rick Berg
Caleb Frare 260 10.38 6.71 1.12 .296 89 112 4.91 -0.2 Scott Wiggins
Tyler B. Johnson 235 10.73 5.54 1.38 .295 88 113 4.84 -0.2 Brad Voyles
Jose Ruiz 257 9.00 5.63 1.13 .308 86 116 4.81 -0.3 Marc Pisciotta
Thyago Vieira 207 8.14 5.36 1.19 .292 83 121 5.05 -0.3 Ken Wright
Zach Thompson 301 7.20 5.54 1.11 .299 84 120 5.18 -0.4 Lloyd Allen
Ryan Burr 259 8.13 6.51 1.14 .296 80 126 5.32 -0.5 Darin Moore
Carson Fulmer 508 7.11 5.77 1.42 .301 73 137 5.77 -0.5 Charlie Zink
Asher Wojciechowski 465 8.10 3.40 2.26 .302 71 140 5.93 -0.7 Nerio Rodriguez
Spencer Adams 642 4.91 3.68 1.81 .302 71 140 6.07 -0.8 Luis Mendoza

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in Triple-A or .300 in Double-A, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2019 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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mikejunt
Member
Member
mikejunt

Well, they did say that someday Yoan Moncada would be the best player on the team.

They weren’t wrong.

sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

There is a moral in this story: No matter how loud your tools are, never slap an FV70 (or an FV65, and probably not even an FV60) on a guy whose scouting report reads “limited bat control” and “needs to overhaul his swing.” Everyone always thinks they’re getting Bryce Harper, but instead they’re getting Bo Jackson if they’re very, very lucky, and it’s more likely you wind up with Drew Stubbs.

mikecws91
Member

I really believe that Moncada’s problem is not his swing, but his approach. He’s WAY too passive at the plate. He almost set the single-season strikeout record while having one of the lowest chase rates in the majors, which is preposterous. And he shattered the record for strikeouts looking in a season (85).