2019 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

If only an outfielder was available in the free agent market, one who could bring a significant boost to a contending team!

Shoot, I’m self-plagiarizing. Let me try again.

If only an outfielder was available in the free agent market, one who could bring nearly as much of a boost to a rebuilding team as Bryce Harper could!

The White Sox have all but held a press conference to proclaim that they’re out on Harper and it’s a shame, really. While I like Manny Machado slightly better on a pure value basis (the loss of whom not doubt still stings on the south side), Harper’s upside is probably less “known” than Machado’s, so he would be an interesting play for a rebuilding team. The White Sox have been unable to develop their own Bryce Harper, because, well, it’s really hard to develop Bryce Harpers. Harper would not have gotten this team to the playoffs in 2019 without some very unexpected things happening, but you can say much the same about Machado. Plus, the White Sox have exactly one interesting outfielder on the roster at the moment, whereas Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, and Tim Anderson could all conceivably contribute to a postseason contender.

Don’t be alarmed by the “1.9” next to Jimenez’ name on the depth chart. The reason that number is so low is that ZiPS has questions about Jimenez’s outfield defense, and the depth chart is only projecting Jimenez for 455 plate appearances. More boxes to check and all that! ZiPS has no questions about Jimenez’s ability to rake, however. A .289/.338/.525 projected line with a 133 OPS+ and 28 home runs would get Eloy Rookie of the Year votes even if he played defense like Todd Hundley in an Ambien daze.

The projected upside for Moncada goes a bit lower every year, with the computer as frustrated with his inconsistent attempts at improving his plate discipline as the White Sox likely are. Just as disappointing, Moncada was a roughly league-average player in 2018, but it took a .344 BABIP for him to maintain a mere .235 BA. If he can’t bring that number up, he needs 10-15 home runs or a shockingly good glove at third to move him out of the “frustratingly average” category. Average players have value, but the White Sox were hoping for more.

I’m avoiding talking about the rest of the outfield because, well, you can guess why.

Pitchers

It’s hard to overestimate the hit the White Sox took from the loss of Michael Kopech, both in terms of the injury itself and the lost development time for a pitcher who still needs some refinement. I briefly considered excluding the Kopech projection out of mercy, but I didn’t want to overturn the precedent I’ve set of showing projections for pitchers missing the season due to injury. Kopech has the most bifurcated ZiPS projections I can remember; instead of some variant of a pretty little curve over some projected midpoint, it was bimodal.

In layman’s terms, ZiPS thought there was a better chance that Kopech would be a star or a scrub than simply a league-average pitcher. In the last year, ZiPS has been leaning more to the good side than the bad. Kopech had progressed to the point where, in terms of his rest-of-career value, ZiPS saw him as the No. 14 pitcher in the majors. The only other rookie-eligible pitcher in the top 50 is Mike Soroka.

As usual, ZiPS is high on Carlos Rodon and probably won’t be dissuaded until he has a whole healthy season and struggles. ZiPS is much less confident when it comes to Reynaldo Lopez, with the system not seeing enough historical evidence, nor anything specific to Lopez, to convince it that him exceeding his FIP by three-quarters of a run is his natural level of ability. That’s not to say that the White Sox should give up on him — you should give pitchers like this every chance to prove the numbers wrong — but it is a reason to mute the excitement a bit.

Bench and Prospects

I’ve already talked a lot about Jimenez and Kopech, given how significant Jimenez will be to the 2019 team and Kopech would have been prior to his injury. While the center field and left field projections are almost shockingly bleak, ZiPS does think that Luis Alexander Basabe is the best option in center in the system right now. ZiPS projects Nick Madrigal as a high-floor second baseman, and through all the injuries, still sees Luis Robert peaking with an OPS+ around 100. Both Dane Dunning and Dylan Cease have passed the 90 ERA+ mark in the projections; ZiPS thinks the former is the second-best pitcher in the rotation right now.

I talked about it in Chicago’s Elegy, but 2018 was a season that would try any team’s patience. With so many injuries and setbacks, the White Sox aren’t that much closer to knowing what their future core will look like than they were a year ago. It’s easy to feel very down on the team right now, given the projections and the news that neither Harper or Machado will be paid a guaranteed rate by the Sox over the next decade. But there remains a lot of talent in the system that could turn the team around very quickly. It’s just not likely to be in 2019.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ Depth Charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in Triple-A or .300 in Double-A, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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