2019 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

by
January 16, 2019

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals.

ZiPS Projections
2019 2018

Batters

The Royals have an extremely bifurcated offense, with three players projected to be solidly above league-average in Adalberto Mondesi, Salvador Perez, and Whit Merrifield, and a fairly large gulf before the next tier of KC hitters. If the Royals were really going the full rebuild route, you’d see Perez and Merrifield — entering their age-29 and -30 seasons respectively — on other teams’ lists, but the Royals seem content to go the “sorta” rebuild route.

Given how thin their talent is, it’s hard to see them having much success going this route and as such, Perez and Merrifield are likely to be either in their declines or in other organizations by the time the performance matters. Winning 72 games instead of 64 in 2019 isn’t going to jumpstart anything.

I’m sure there will be some gnashed teeth about O’Hearn’s projection, given that he hit .262/.353/.597 in the majors in 170 plate appearances in 2018. He also had a .713 OPS in 406 PA in the Pacific Coast League, which is abysmal for an offensive prospect.

Pitchers

This group won’t be as bad as some people think in 2019, and it wouldn’t take a lot of breaks for the team to achieve their pointless Quest for 75 Wins, which is a little like bragging to your drinking buddies that you can deadlift 125 pounds. Danny Duffy isn’t a lost cause and Brad Keller was good enough in 2018 that it couldn’t all have been a fluke. ZiPS absolutely loves Richard Lovelady, but the rest of the bullpen is a big digital yawn. The Trevor Oaks projection isn’t exactly impressive, but I can’t remember the last time ZiPS didn’t actually hate a pitcher with as low a strikeout rate as he is projected to have.

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Bench and Prospects

Troubling and not seen in full here is that ZiPS simply projects very few of the hitting prospects in the upper levels of the organization as good bets to be relevant by the time the Royals are good again. It’s essentially Adalberto Mondesi and Nicky Lopez. Khalil Lee and Emmanuel Rivera are the only two other offensive prospects on this list for whom ZiPS gives even an over/under of three WAR over their major league careers. Now, it’s not quite as bad as that considering a couple of the names I’m not yet projecting are Seuly Matias and Nick Pratto, but it’s certainly less than ideal for a team that really ought to be 2 1/2 years into a rebuild by now.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Whit Merrifield R 30 2B 153 614 81 172 36 4 13 61 44 108 35 9
Adalberto Mondesi B 23 SS 118 437 62 114 22 6 18 58 20 118 39 7
Salvador Perez R 29 C 136 513 55 130 26 1 24 77 18 104 1 1
Nicky Lopez L 24 SS 127 511 60 133 15 5 6 40 43 61 12 6
Billy Hamilton R 28 CF 139 500 74 121 18 7 4 27 42 117 45 10
Alex Gordon L 35 LF 128 443 50 102 19 1 11 44 47 120 9 2
Xavier Fernandez R 23 C 88 318 34 79 17 1 6 30 18 56 3 3
Jorge Soler R 27 RF 90 307 38 76 15 0 13 37 40 107 3 1
Meibrys Viloria L 22 C 113 409 41 91 19 1 7 38 27 104 2 2
Emmanuel Rivera R 23 3B 120 466 50 120 23 5 7 49 23 92 3 6
Ryan O’Hearn L 25 1B 144 509 64 115 29 3 20 67 57 152 2 0
Jecksson Flores R 25 2B 126 460 47 110 22 3 5 37 22 92 16 6
Cheslor Cuthbert R 26 3B 109 377 41 91 18 1 11 40 30 84 1 1
Brian Goodwin L 28 CF 107 340 41 76 17 1 11 40 30 112 9 3
Cam Gallagher R 26 C 97 329 33 74 14 0 5 31 24 54 1 0
Donnie Dewees L 25 CF 132 518 54 119 22 7 7 45 30 111 15 6
Frank Schwindel R 27 1B 136 524 58 134 32 1 17 65 19 92 1 2
Jorge Bonifacio R 26 RF 110 401 51 93 19 2 12 43 38 124 1 1
Brett Phillips L 25 RF 124 439 52 88 15 6 12 46 43 186 10 3
Kelvin Gutierrez R 24 3B 118 460 48 107 16 5 7 39 28 125 12 4
Chris Owings R 27 SS 125 419 49 101 23 4 7 40 24 104 15 5
Kort Peterson L 25 RF 101 365 41 82 19 3 9 39 20 129 7 4
Nick Dini R 25 C 90 317 33 73 14 0 6 28 13 68 6 1
Bubba Starling R 26 CF 86 306 32 61 16 1 7 27 20 106 5 3
Hunter Dozier R 27 3B 135 499 58 113 29 2 15 51 41 160 4 3
Khalil Lee L 21 CF 113 426 51 90 19 4 10 43 46 164 14 13
Erick Mejia B 24 2B 134 530 57 123 22 6 5 42 35 128 22 12
Alex Liddi R 30 1B 107 406 48 89 19 3 17 53 25 146 5 2
Blake Perkins R 22 CF 131 514 63 104 21 2 5 33 64 162 20 11
Chris Owings R 27 RF 123 412 48 99 22 4 7 39 24 103 14 4
Brewer Hicklen R 23 LF 100 384 43 79 16 2 11 39 20 150 21 7
Corey Toups R 26 3B 103 374 42 76 17 2 7 31 33 140 12 3
Humberto Arteaga R 25 3B 125 465 41 108 15 2 4 32 16 88 5 6
Jack Lopez R 26 2B 110 399 38 86 11 2 7 30 15 113 11 6
Taylor Featherston R 29 2B 108 337 36 64 12 3 7 31 23 129 8 2
Ramon Torres B 26 2B 113 431 44 103 17 2 4 31 20 69 10 6
Sebastian Rivero R 20 C 76 287 27 62 12 0 5 24 11 77 0 1
Samir Duenez L 23 1B 112 429 49 98 20 2 12 50 32 113 6 1
Anderson Miller L 25 LF 115 437 43 97 18 3 8 39 27 120 9 5
MJ Melendez L 20 C 106 410 41 76 17 4 13 46 32 184 4 7
Parker Morin L 27 C 58 179 16 35 7 1 2 13 9 49 1 0
D.J. Burt R 23 2B 113 434 47 92 15 5 3 32 43 121 21 11
Terrance Gore R 28 CF 94 216 24 43 3 1 0 9 16 61 26 5
Nick Heath L 25 CF 84 303 30 59 8 2 2 18 27 112 22 9
Manny Olloque R 23 3B 92 332 32 69 14 2 6 30 15 121 4 4
Elier Hernandez R 24 RF 126 481 43 103 23 3 4 38 21 132 6 7

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Whit Merrifield .280 .331 .415 105 .135 .323 5.5 6 3.4 Gene Alley
Adalberto Mondesi .261 .295 .462 105 .201 .319 5.6 2 2.7 Cristian Guzman
Salvador Perez .253 .289 .448 100 .195 .275 4.7 6 2.6 Ramon Hernandez
Nicky Lopez .260 .321 .344 85 .084 .286 4.0 4 1.5 Jeff Huson
Billy Hamilton .242 .300 .330 75 .088 .309 4.1 9 1.4 Freddy Guzman
Alex Gordon .230 .317 .352 85 .122 .292 4.0 10 1.1 Derek Bell
Xavier Fernandez .248 .291 .365 80 .116 .285 3.7 2 0.6 Richard Suomi
Jorge Soler .248 .340 .423 110 .176 .337 5.2 -5 0.6 Jeremy Giambi
Meibrys Viloria .222 .277 .325 66 .103 .282 3.1 6 0.5 John Mizerock
Emmanuel Rivera .258 .296 .373 84 .116 .308 3.8 2 0.5 Greg LaRocca
Ryan O’Hearn .226 .307 .413 97 .187 .282 4.5 -2 0.4 Eric Valent
Jecksson Flores .239 .279 .333 68 .093 .289 3.4 7 0.4 Kenny Perez
Cheslor Cuthbert .241 .299 .382 87 .141 .284 4.0 -3 0.3 Bobby Holley
Brian Goodwin .224 .288 .376 82 .153 .300 3.9 -1 0.3 Orsino Hill
Cam Gallagher .225 .279 .313 64 .088 .256 3.1 4 0.3 Drew Butera
Donnie Dewees .230 .276 .340 69 .110 .280 3.3 5 0.2 Joe Mathis
Frank Schwindel .256 .286 .418 91 .162 .282 4.3 1 0.1 Leo Hernandez
Jorge Bonifacio .232 .302 .379 87 .147 .306 4.0 0 0.1 Bill McCarthy
Brett Phillips .200 .275 .344 70 .144 .315 3.3 10 0.1 Brad Snyder
Kelvin Gutierrez .233 .279 .335 69 .102 .305 3.4 4 0.0 Edwin Rodriguez
Chris Owings .241 .283 .365 78 .124 .305 3.8 -5 -0.1 Thomas Manzella
Kort Peterson .225 .285 .367 79 .142 .322 3.6 3 -0.1 Brian Brady
Nick Dini .230 .274 .331 67 .101 .276 3.3 -2 -0.1 Omir Santos
Bubba Starling .199 .255 .327 59 .127 .280 2.8 4 -0.2 John Giudice
Hunter Dozier .226 .285 .383 83 .156 .302 3.8 -7 -0.2 Rey Palacios
Khalil Lee .211 .298 .345 78 .134 .317 3.2 -4 -0.3 Mel Hall
Erick Mejia .232 .281 .325 67 .092 .297 3.2 2 -0.4 Ramon Caraballo
Alex Liddi .219 .267 .406 82 .187 .296 3.8 0 -0.4 John Cotton
Blake Perkins .202 .294 .280 60 .078 .285 2.7 3 -0.6 Tony Miller
Chris Owings .240 .283 .364 78 .124 .305 3.8 -1 -0.6 Drew Anderson
Brewer Hicklen .206 .261 .344 66 .138 .305 3.2 3 -0.6 Wilkin Ramirez
Corey Toups .203 .275 .316 63 .112 .304 3.1 -2 -0.6 Sean Berry
Humberto Arteaga .232 .259 .299 54 .067 .279 2.6 9 -0.6 Jim Scranton
Jack Lopez .216 .250 .306 53 .090 .283 2.6 5 -0.7 Wade Robinson
Taylor Featherston .190 .251 .306 53 .116 .284 2.7 2 -0.7 Chris Petersen
Ramon Torres .239 .273 .316 63 .077 .277 3.0 1 -0.7 Dave Myers
Sebastian Rivero .216 .245 .310 52 .094 .278 2.5 -1 -0.7 Kurt Brown
Samir Duenez .228 .281 .368 78 .140 .283 3.7 -1 -0.8 Alex Hernandez
Anderson Miller .222 .269 .332 65 .110 .288 3.1 4 -0.9 Jonathan Johnson
MJ Melendez .185 .249 .341 61 .156 .296 2.6 -3 -0.9 Brandon Yarbrough
Parker Morin .196 .240 .279 43 .084 .258 2.3 -3 -1.0 Dave Ullery
D.J. Burt .212 .284 .290 60 .078 .287 2.8 -2 -1.1 Adam Davis
Terrance Gore .199 .264 .222 37 .023 .277 2.7 -4 -1.1 Craig Griffey
Nick Heath .195 .261 .254 44 .059 .302 2.4 0 -1.2 Jeff Conger
Manny Olloque .208 .245 .316 54 .108 .307 2.5 -2 -1.3 Mario Ramirez
Elier Hernandez .214 .254 .299 53 .085 .287 2.4 2 -2.1 Rick Bernardo

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jake Junis R 26 10 10 4.37 29 28 164.7 172 80 26 38 143
Brad Keller R 23 9 9 4.20 43 24 156.3 168 73 15 46 97
Danny Duffy L 30 10 9 4.37 26 26 148.3 151 72 19 51 129
Trevor Oaks R 26 9 9 4.41 25 24 136.7 158 67 13 38 72
Ben Lively R 27 7 8 4.35 25 21 120.0 128 58 14 38 88
Richard Lovelady L 23 4 3 3.52 54 0 71.7 68 28 4 26 59
Jesse Hahn R 29 5 5 4.52 18 17 87.7 92 44 8 38 60
Glenn Sparkman R 27 6 7 4.79 29 19 118.3 139 63 17 27 70
Sam McWilliams R 23 6 8 4.74 23 20 108.3 123 57 12 42 71
Arnaldo Hernandez R 23 7 8 4.95 26 22 120.0 137 66 16 41 69
Nate Karns R 31 3 3 4.57 14 12 69.0 69 35 10 29 65
Jonathan Dziedzic L 28 7 8 4.98 22 22 115.7 132 64 14 44 66
Jason Hammel R 36 7 9 4.83 30 20 123.0 140 66 18 35 91
Heath Fillmyer R 25 6 8 5.09 28 26 138.0 152 78 18 58 85
Brian Flynn L 29 4 4 4.19 42 1 68.7 72 32 6 27 44
Pedro Fernandez R 25 4 4 4.52 33 4 65.7 70 33 6 29 41
Ian Kennedy R 34 7 9 4.99 24 24 128.0 132 71 24 44 106
Jake Kalish L 27 4 5 4.93 30 11 95.0 108 52 12 31 57
Gabe Speier L 24 1 1 4.39 45 1 65.7 71 32 4 28 37
Jake Newberry R 24 4 4 4.33 56 0 62.3 63 30 6 29 46
Tim Hill L 29 2 2 4.33 57 0 54.0 55 26 6 21 45
Wily Peralta R 30 4 5 4.82 40 11 89.7 96 48 11 44 75
Jason Adam R 27 3 3 4.35 46 0 51.7 47 25 7 27 56
Kevin McCarthy R 27 4 5 4.56 64 0 73.0 81 37 9 24 44
Foster Griffin L 23 9 12 5.31 27 26 142.3 168 84 22 52 84
Eric Skoglund L 26 4 6 5.24 21 20 99.7 114 58 17 30 68
Josh Staumont R 25 5 7 5.18 35 14 92.0 84 53 9 80 97
Kyle Zimmer R 27 1 1 4.94 11 4 31.0 32 17 4 16 27
Kevin Lenik R 27 1 1 4.66 31 0 46.3 47 24 4 26 36
Sam Selman L 28 3 3 4.73 37 0 45.7 40 24 4 38 49
Jorge Lopez R 26 6 8 5.11 37 13 98.7 107 56 14 42 77
Scott Barlow R 25 5 8 5.31 25 25 120.3 124 71 20 68 118
Seth Maness R 30 2 2 4.64 33 0 42.7 51 22 6 8 23
Enny Romero L 28 2 3 4.91 44 0 44.0 45 24 6 22 41
Conner Greene R 24 5 6 5.40 36 15 95.0 100 57 6 80 61
Zach Lovvorn R 25 6 9 5.50 27 22 126.0 153 77 17 50 62
Walker Sheller R 24 3 4 5.01 40 0 55.7 63 31 6 25 30
Scott Blewett R 23 6 8 5.55 25 25 136.3 161 84 19 58 73
Michael Ynoa R 27 1 1 5.13 27 0 33.3 34 19 3 22 25
Grant Gavin R 23 1 2 5.05 36 0 51.7 52 29 6 32 46
Yunior Marte R 24 4 4 5.01 42 0 73.7 75 41 8 44 58
Brandon Maurer R 28 4 4 4.91 60 0 58.7 62 32 7 28 49
Blaine Boyer R 37 2 2 5.18 35 0 41.7 47 24 5 18 27
Chris Ellis R 26 4 7 5.62 20 15 81.7 92 51 14 41 64
Burch Smith R 29 3 4 5.58 32 7 69.3 74 43 11 38 60
Kyle Lohse R 40 5 9 5.62 23 18 112.0 132 70 21 35 67
Andres Machado R 26 4 6 5.82 33 13 85.0 100 55 14 40 56
Ofreidy Gomez R 23 6 10 5.82 27 21 123.7 148 80 18 65 67
Gerson Garabito R 23 5 8 6.12 24 24 114.7 131 78 19 72 70

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Jake Junis 704 7.82 2.08 1.42 .301 98 102 4.38 2.0 Ed Lynch
Brad Keller 675 5.58 2.65 0.86 .299 99 101 4.14 1.9 Lindy McDaniel
Danny Duffy 642 7.83 3.09 1.15 .302 98 102 4.23 1.8 Kent Mercker
Trevor Oaks 602 4.74 2.50 0.86 .307 94 106 4.32 1.4 Jack Russell
Ben Lively 524 6.60 2.85 1.05 .302 96 104 4.33 1.3 Howie Fox
Richard Lovelady 308 7.41 3.27 0.50 .298 122 82 3.48 1.1 Pat Clements
Jesse Hahn 390 6.16 3.90 0.82 .300 95 105 4.40 0.9 Don Schwall
Glenn Sparkman 517 5.32 2.05 1.29 .307 90 111 4.67 0.9 John Doherty
Sam McWilliams 488 5.90 3.49 1.00 .312 88 114 4.64 0.8 Mark Cahill
Arnaldo Hernandez 535 5.18 3.08 1.20 .301 87 115 4.93 0.7 Michael Macdonald
Nate Karns 302 8.48 3.78 1.30 .301 94 106 4.50 0.7 Ryan Glynn
Jonathan Dziedzic 519 5.14 3.42 1.09 .303 86 116 4.88 0.7 Jimmy Anderson
Jason Hammel 540 6.66 2.56 1.32 .312 86 116 4.55 0.6 Mickey Weston
Heath Fillmyer 620 5.54 3.78 1.17 .296 85 118 5.03 0.6 Steve Falteisek
Brian Flynn 302 5.77 3.54 0.79 .297 103 97 4.32 0.6 Tom Burgmeier
Pedro Fernandez 295 5.62 3.97 0.82 .298 95 105 4.60 0.5 Jim McDonald
Ian Kennedy 556 7.45 3.09 1.69 .286 83 120 5.08 0.5 Dennis Springer
Jake Kalish 422 5.40 2.94 1.14 .304 87 115 4.76 0.5 Pat Clements
Gabe Speier 295 5.07 3.84 0.55 .302 98 102 4.28 0.4 Mike Cosgrove
Jake Newberry 277 6.64 4.19 0.87 .295 99 101 4.47 0.4 Hal Reniff
Tim Hill 237 7.50 3.50 1.00 .302 99 101 4.26 0.4 Todd Rizzo
Wily Peralta 405 7.53 4.42 1.10 .313 86 116 4.64 0.3 Blue Moon Odom
Jason Adam 230 9.75 4.70 1.22 .294 99 101 4.54 0.3 Bryce Florie
Kevin McCarthy 321 5.42 2.96 1.11 .299 94 106 4.66 0.3 Lew Burdette
Foster Griffin 643 5.31 3.29 1.39 .306 81 123 5.24 0.3 Jason Dickson
Eric Skoglund 441 6.14 2.71 1.54 .303 82 122 5.09 0.3 Eric Knott
Josh Staumont 440 9.49 7.83 0.88 .302 83 121 5.12 0.2 Chad Reineke
Kyle Zimmer 141 7.84 4.65 1.16 .304 87 115 4.83 0.1 Lou Kretlow
Kevin Lenik 211 6.99 5.05 0.78 .303 92 108 4.60 0.1 Ken Wright
Sam Selman 215 9.66 7.49 0.79 .298 91 110 4.84 0.1 Mike Kinnunen
Jorge Lopez 443 7.02 3.83 1.28 .305 82 123 4.86 0.1 Tim Crabtree
Scott Barlow 552 8.83 5.09 1.50 .307 79 127 5.22 0.1 Elvin Nina
Seth Maness 184 4.85 1.69 1.27 .308 90 111 4.53 0.1 Tony Arnold
Enny Romero 197 8.39 4.50 1.23 .307 88 114 4.63 0.0 Joey Long
Conner Greene 463 5.78 7.58 0.57 .303 80 126 5.40 0.0 Walt Masterson
Zach Lovvorn 577 4.43 3.57 1.21 .308 78 128 5.28 0.0 Mark Cahill
Walker Sheller 253 4.85 4.04 0.97 .302 86 117 4.98 -0.1 Bob Miller
Scott Blewett 625 4.82 3.83 1.25 .304 78 129 5.34 -0.1 Frank Castillo
Michael Ynoa 157 6.75 5.94 0.81 .301 84 119 5.16 -0.1 Ken Wright
Grant Gavin 238 8.01 5.57 1.05 .305 85 117 4.91 -0.1 Pete Sikaras
Yunior Marte 338 7.09 5.38 0.98 .299 86 116 4.94 -0.1 Joe Hudson
Brandon Maurer 264 7.52 4.30 1.07 .309 85 118 4.56 -0.1 Jose Segura
Blaine Boyer 188 5.83 3.89 1.08 .307 83 121 4.78 -0.1 Bob Scanlan
Chris Ellis 379 7.05 4.52 1.54 .308 76 132 5.57 -0.1 Mark Woodyard
Burch Smith 318 7.79 4.93 1.43 .306 75 134 5.26 -0.3 Marty McLeary
Kyle Lohse 498 5.38 2.81 1.69 .299 74 135 5.44 -0.4 Ed Riley
Andres Machado 393 5.93 4.24 1.48 .309 74 135 5.56 -0.4 Mark Woodyard
Ofreidy Gomez 582 4.88 4.73 1.31 .307 74 135 5.73 -0.5 Clint Sodowsky
Gerson Garabito 545 5.49 5.65 1.49 .297 70 142 6.15 -0.8 Jake Robbins

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.





 

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

38 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Trey Baughn
7 years ago

The aggregate OBP of this team could be historically bad.

7
Jetsy Extrano
7 years ago
Reply to  Trey Baughn

Pretty amazing when two of their three *best* hitters are sub-.300 OBP.

6
_Adam
7 years ago

And Cam Gallagher’s comp is…Drew Butera

9
FrodoBeck
7 years ago

I can’t believe Salvador Perez is only 28. It seems as if he’s been around forever.

21
dtpollittMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  FrodoBeck

Oddly enough 28 is also the number of total innings Ned Yost has rested Salvador Perez over the years.

/s

28
ShauncoreMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  dtpollitt

And the number of walks he has had in the same span

27
CL1NTMember since 2025
7 years ago
Reply to  FrodoBeck

I thought the same thing a few days ago!
Kind of like Anthony Rendon. He’s only 28. It feels Rendon has been crushing the Braves for 15 years.

1
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago

KC’s call to do one last ride with Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cain seemed defensible enough. I’m also not convinced Perez has a ton of trade value given the deals that Ramos and Grandal got. For whatever reason, the teams who need a catcher who are not willing to pay for one.

But hanging on to Merrifield seems like a very questionable move. You can theoretically imagine that with the market for 2B this offseason and teams suddenly obsessed with holding their prospects, you might not get what you expect for the guy. Still, he seems like the kind of guy you want to move, coming off a career year at the plate and 45 stolen bases but entering his age-30 season. It’s possible that some team would want to consolidate talent to keep a pretty good 2nd baseman for four years (Rockies? Padres, maybe?), but the Royals don’t sound like they’re even considering it.

It’s going to be a rough few years.

10
ShauncoreMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

They are hanging on to Merrifield because they think their timeline is quicker than it is. Merrifield’s peak value was probably either last July or this winter but of course they held him. They think that Merrifield will still be controlled during part of their next window.

They’ve effectively said they don’t want to rebuild, they want to do more of a slow reload and I think they see their slew of college pitchers they just took being MLB ready in 2020.

1) Middle infield locked up (Merrifield and Mondesi)
2) Catcher locked up (Perez)
3) Pitching depth (Keller, Junis, Singer, Kowar, Lynch, etc…)
4) Obviously bullish on their next “wave” (Matias, Pratto, Lee, Lopez)

I don’t agree with this but it’s what I think they think (parsing their comments and their rosters)

18
rhswanzey
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

That’s frustrating. 1250 PA in AAA before getting so much as a cup of coffee, and suddenly he’s untouchable on a bad team. Make up your mind!

8
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

This is my sense too. The flaw in their reasoning is that they think that Singer/Kowar/Lynch/Matias/Pratto/Lee will not only be ready in 2020 (which is possible) but that they’ll be ready coming out of training camp (which is less likely) and that they’ll be good enough to compete that year (which is really unlikely). They’re looking at 2021 for those guys being real competitors, not 2020, which makes holding a guy whose contracts are up in 2021 and 2022 (or something like that) somewhat less appealing.

I think the most likely route to success for this team is if they pick up some fast-moving college players for the next few drafts, having a team with some good regulars in place by 2021/2022 thanks to Singer/Kowar/Lynch/Matias/Pratto/Lee. So, say, if they took an advanced college bat and he moves fast, he could be a real player at the same time as the rest of them. But of course, by that time Merrifield and Perez will be gone or close to it.

2
ShauncoreMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Fast moving and the Royals prospect development history are mutually independent

9
rhswanzey
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I’d be disappointed if they make college pitching a trend – seems like 2018 was more a case of where Singer was too good a value to pass up for how late in the 1st he was drafted. The Process was successful because of hitting on (eventually) Gordon, Moustakas and Hosmer, Perez, and a deep pen. They added Cain and Shields (via Odorizzi, via Greinke), but have nothing close to Greinke to trade from this MLB roster. They don’t need back end starters. They need to hit on several position players while their ML and arb seasons overlap.

1
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

To be fair, they’ll be picking at the very top of the draft the next 2-3 drafts. I don’t think they’ll be gunning for back-end starters. I was thinking more like advanced college bats.

2
Dmjn53
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Merrifield would be their day only major chip. I also don’t think Perez’s value is very high given his contract, mileage on his legs, questionable defensive metrics, and his complete inability to reach base

0
BenZobrist4MVP
7 years ago

I wonder when the last time was that a team had 3 players either projected for 30+ steals or that actually had 3 with 30+ stolen bases.

6
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

My first response was that it had to be the early 90s Expos with DeShields and Grissom, but it looks like many years they didn’t have that third guy. They came close in 1993 with Larry Walker at 29 steals and did it Calderon at 31 in 1991. In 1990 they had Tim Raines in additon to those other two, but Grissom only played half the season–but Otis Nixon also had a bunch of stolen bases that year, meaning that 1990/1991 Expos are your winners.

The 1992 Brewers also had a hilarious number of stolen bases with Pat Listach, Darryl Hamilton, and Paul Molitor. A bright spot for an otherwise terrible time for Brewers fandom.

3
CC AFCMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

Your question got my curiousity stoked. Looks like the last time there were 3 teammates with 30 or more stolen bases was 1999 when Mike Cameron, Pokey Reese, and Barry Larkin did it for the Reds

19
Dominikk85Member since 2020
7 years ago

I think merrifield and Perez are gone at the deadline. The market for 2b and c just was so bad they probably weren’t offered much at all.

I think they hope there are some injuries and they can get something at the deadline. And even if they didn’t plan to fully rebuild a last place at the deadline could change their mind on that.

I even go further and say they are a 100+ loss candidate and maybe if they have a big sell off at the deadline they might even challenge the Os for the first overall pick next year. They are bad.

-2
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Dominikk85

They’re strong (is that the right word?) contenders for the second worst team in major league baseball, up (down?) there with the Marlins but not quite as bad as the Orioles. What is likely going to keep them being out of the basement is the pitching (which looks mediocre but not bad) and the defense (which looks like it will be decent).

Let’s also not sleep on the Orioles being historically terrible. Remember, Elias was with the Astros when they tore down, and if anyone in their arbitration years or later shows signs of life they’re probably gone. Bundy, Givens, Cobb, Cashner, Villar, Trumbo…there’s not much upside for the team because if any of those players are good, they’ll be gone. That’s not necessarily true for KC, which seems to legitimately want to win more games.

0
mlsgrad99Member since 2018
7 years ago

Do you have Soler with relatively few ABs due to injury or platooning or what?

0
Smiling PolitelyMember since 2018
7 years ago
Reply to  mlsgrad99

I, too, was surprised to see him projected for <1 WAR (as the disclaimer says, "Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors")–is it simply because he's not expected to play the field (and when he does, he might be only a bit of a net positive due to defense?) or is there regression?

0
rhswanzey
7 years ago
Reply to  Smiling Politely

I think it’s because Soler hasn’t cleared 300 MLB PA in any of the previous three seasons. He got over 400 if you include his AAA stint in 2017. He’s never cleared 1 WAR in MLB and hasn’t been especially healthy. ZiPS doesn’t account for injury history, but it recognizes he’s not an especially good bet to bat 600 times.

2
Jetsy Extrano
7 years ago
Reply to  mlsgrad99

I saw the players and wondered if they would consider playing Soler in the outfield over this Phillips chap. Is he roller-skatesy out there?

0
Six Ten
7 years ago
Reply to  Jetsy Extrano

Not only is Soler a bad defender, Phillips is incredibly good. In just 527 innings (equivalent to about 58 games) he’s put up a DEF of 13.2, and the scouting report on him suggests it’s not a fluke. But he can’t hit. 200Ks with <30 XBHs is in the realm of possibility.

That outfield is going to be otherworldly defensively but truly godawful at the plate.

3
dtpollittMember since 2016
7 years ago

Remind me to draft Adalberto Mondesi in fantasy this year.

0
Pinstripe Wizard
7 years ago

I make the motion that Trevor Oaks be henceforth nicknamed The Terrier.

1
CapricaCity
7 years ago

I like where it says, “it wouldn’t take a lot of breaks for the team to achieve their pointless Quest for 75 Wins.” Its reminiscent the comment made in the 2015 Zips Projection for the Royals, “The club was built not to dominate the league, but to remain relevant over the course of a full season.” While it may not be entirely likely, hopefully we see the same result this season. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2015-zips-projections-kansas-city-royals/

-3
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  CapricaCity

You realize that comment was talking about the 2014 team, rather than the 2015 one…right? The 2014 projections were “win some, lose some”–undershooting on Gordon and Cain and Escobar and the Aoki/Dyson tag team, but overshooting on Moustakas and Hosmer and Butler and Infante.

The 2015 projection was a little different, and it missed a lot, but I don’t think we can blame ZiPs too much for those either. It saw Cain returning to 2013 levels instead of ascending to stardom, because ZiPs quite understandably undershot on Eric Hosmer (he was below-replacement-level in 2014, and had three bad years compared to one good year in his career), and because Mike Moustakas unexpectedly became an above-average hitter (his career best wRC+ beforehand was 90). With the possible exception of Cain, those were totally reasonable expectations.

8
NickMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I still ask myself, esp. after considering the 2014 team, “wait a minute, how did they win?” Then I remember that Alex Gordon used to actually have full use of his extremities, Alcides Escobar had *some* use of same. Lorenzo Cain kept getting better. Bullpen etc . Still takes me about 15 minutes and a drink to grasp.

1
Six Ten
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I make this point all the time about Cain, but even that expectation was reasonable from the perspective of a database. Most late bloomers are that way because they’re maximizing iffy talent. Occasionally they go on to be great long-term contributors, but often they have a few good years and then fade again. Cain’s odd circumstances made him an outlier from the outliers.

Like he didn’t play organized baseball until several years later than most MLBers get started; most guys who start playing in their teens are overmatched and never get good. When he reached the majors he was still learning to hit.

And like nobody had ever taught him how to run, which was a direct contributor to some of his injury issues early in his career. So his inability to keep his legs healthy was possibly a correctable problem, and sure enough he corrected it. He developed a new running form during 2014, and he’s played 140+ games three of the last four years.

ZiPS for each of his last three years in KC totalled a projection of about 9 WAR. If you add one to each year, you get pretty close to the 12.7 he actually produced. So that’s my default assumption with him.

1
Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
7 years ago

Adalberto Mondesi being at a near all-star level is a stellar example of how ZiPS gives me new information whenever I read these articles. Cool.

2
NickMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

.295 OBP, but may be their best hitter. Yeeeesh

1
GTOBalance
7 years ago

I live in KC and this is absolutely brutal

The title was worth it; but man where exactly are they going here?

2
rhswanzey
7 years ago
Reply to  GTOBalance

The cellar!

3
cowdiscipleMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  GTOBalance

This elevator only goes to the basement. And someone made an awful mess down there.

1
CL1NTMember since 2025
7 years ago

I’m gonna predict a better performance from Merrifield. If he could add a little pop, he could be a possible 6-win player.

It makes absolutely no sense why he and Perez are still playing for the Royals. With Perez being a solid-hitting catcher, the Royals are wasting the opportunity to sell high on him. And Merrifield’s tools are obviously worth some top-prospects.

0
Mahoney
7 years ago

Mondesi’s top comp, Cristian Guzman, is the only player in the history of baseball to hit 20 or more triples in a season and still have negative WAR for the year (20 3B with -0.1 WAR in 2000).

2