2019 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

January 16, 2019

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals.

ZiPS Projections

2019 2018

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Batters

The Royals have an extremely bifurcated offense, with three players projected to be solidly above league-average in Adalberto Mondesi, Salvador Perez, and Whit Merrifield, and a fairly large gulf before the next tier of KC hitters. If the Royals were really going the full rebuild route, you’d see Perez and Merrifield — entering their age-29 and -30 seasons respectively — on other teams’ lists, but the Royals seem content to go the “sorta” rebuild route.

Given how thin their talent is, it’s hard to see them having much success going this route and as such, Perez and Merrifield are likely to be either in their declines or in other organizations by the time the performance matters. Winning 72 games instead of 64 in 2019 isn’t going to jumpstart anything.

I’m sure there will be some gnashed teeth about O’Hearn’s projection, given that he hit .262/.353/.597 in the majors in 170 plate appearances in 2018. He also had a .713 OPS in 406 PA in the Pacific Coast League, which is abysmal for an offensive prospect.

Pitchers

This group won’t be as bad as some people think in 2019, and it wouldn’t take a lot of breaks for the team to achieve their pointless Quest for 75 Wins, which is a little like bragging to your drinking buddies that you can deadlift 125 pounds. Danny Duffy isn’t a lost cause and Brad Keller was good enough in 2018 that it couldn’t all have been a fluke. ZiPS absolutely loves Richard Lovelady, but the rest of the bullpen is a big digital yawn. The Trevor Oaks projection isn’t exactly impressive, but I can’t remember the last time ZiPS didn’t actually hate a pitcher with as low a strikeout rate as he is projected to have.

Bench and Prospects

Troubling and not seen in full here is that ZiPS simply projects very few of the hitting prospects in the upper levels of the organization as good bets to be relevant by the time the Royals are good again. It’s essentially Adalberto Mondesi and Nicky Lopez. Khalil Lee and Emmanuel Rivera are the only two other offensive prospects on this list for whom ZiPS gives even an over/under of three WAR over their major league careers. Now, it’s not quite as bad as that considering a couple of the names I’m not yet projecting are Seuly Matias and Nick Pratto, but it’s certainly less than ideal for a team that really ought to be 2 1/2 years into a rebuild by now.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Whit Merrifield	R	30	2B	153	614	81	172	36	4	13	61	44	108	35	9
Adalberto Mondesi	B	23	SS	118	437	62	114	22	6	18	58	20	118	39	7
Salvador Perez	R	29	C	136	513	55	130	26	1	24	77	18	104	1	1
Nicky Lopez	L	24	SS	127	511	60	133	15	5	6	40	43	61	12	6
Billy Hamilton	R	28	CF	139	500	74	121	18	7	4	27	42	117	45	10
Alex Gordon	L	35	LF	128	443	50	102	19	1	11	44	47	120	9	2
Xavier Fernandez	R	23	C	88	318	34	79	17	1	6	30	18	56	3	3
Jorge Soler	R	27	RF	90	307	38	76	15	0	13	37	40	107	3	1
Meibrys Viloria	L	22	C	113	409	41	91	19	1	7	38	27	104	2	2
Emmanuel Rivera	R	23	3B	120	466	50	120	23	5	7	49	23	92	3	6
Ryan O’Hearn	L	25	1B	144	509	64	115	29	3	20	67	57	152	2	0
Jecksson Flores	R	25	2B	126	460	47	110	22	3	5	37	22	92	16	6
Cheslor Cuthbert	R	26	3B	109	377	41	91	18	1	11	40	30	84	1	1
Brian Goodwin	L	28	CF	107	340	41	76	17	1	11	40	30	112	9	3
Cam Gallagher	R	26	C	97	329	33	74	14	0	5	31	24	54	1	0
Donnie Dewees	L	25	CF	132	518	54	119	22	7	7	45	30	111	15	6
Frank Schwindel	R	27	1B	136	524	58	134	32	1	17	65	19	92	1	2
Jorge Bonifacio	R	26	RF	110	401	51	93	19	2	12	43	38	124	1	1
Brett Phillips	L	25	RF	124	439	52	88	15	6	12	46	43	186	10	3
Kelvin Gutierrez	R	24	3B	118	460	48	107	16	5	7	39	28	125	12	4
Chris Owings	R	27	SS	125	419	49	101	23	4	7	40	24	104	15	5
Kort Peterson	L	25	RF	101	365	41	82	19	3	9	39	20	129	7	4
Nick Dini	R	25	C	90	317	33	73	14	0	6	28	13	68	6	1
Bubba Starling	R	26	CF	86	306	32	61	16	1	7	27	20	106	5	3
Hunter Dozier	R	27	3B	135	499	58	113	29	2	15	51	41	160	4	3
Khalil Lee	L	21	CF	113	426	51	90	19	4	10	43	46	164	14	13
Erick Mejia	B	24	2B	134	530	57	123	22	6	5	42	35	128	22	12
Alex Liddi	R	30	1B	107	406	48	89	19	3	17	53	25	146	5	2
Blake Perkins	R	22	CF	131	514	63	104	21	2	5	33	64	162	20	11
Chris Owings	R	27	RF	123	412	48	99	22	4	7	39	24	103	14	4
Brewer Hicklen	R	23	LF	100	384	43	79	16	2	11	39	20	150	21	7
Corey Toups	R	26	3B	103	374	42	76	17	2	7	31	33	140	12	3
Humberto Arteaga	R	25	3B	125	465	41	108	15	2	4	32	16	88	5	6
Jack Lopez	R	26	2B	110	399	38	86	11	2	7	30	15	113	11	6
Taylor Featherston	R	29	2B	108	337	36	64	12	3	7	31	23	129	8	2
Ramon Torres	B	26	2B	113	431	44	103	17	2	4	31	20	69	10	6
Sebastian Rivero	R	20	C	76	287	27	62	12	0	5	24	11	77	0	1
Samir Duenez	L	23	1B	112	429	49	98	20	2	12	50	32	113	6	1
Anderson Miller	L	25	LF	115	437	43	97	18	3	8	39	27	120	9	5
MJ Melendez	L	20	C	106	410	41	76	17	4	13	46	32	184	4	7
Parker Morin	L	27	C	58	179	16	35	7	1	2	13	9	49	1	0
D.J. Burt	R	23	2B	113	434	47	92	15	5	3	32	43	121	21	11
Terrance Gore	R	28	CF	94	216	24	43	3	1	0	9	16	61	26	5
Nick Heath	L	25	CF	84	303	30	59	8	2	2	18	27	112	22	9
Manny Olloque	R	23	3B	92	332	32	69	14	2	6	30	15	121	4	4
Elier Hernandez	R	24	RF	126	481	43	103	23	3	4	38	21	132	6	7

Batters – Rate Stats

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	ISO	BABIP	RC/27	Def	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Whit Merrifield	.280	.331	.415	105	.135	.323	5.5	6	3.4	Gene Alley
Adalberto Mondesi	.261	.295	.462	105	.201	.319	5.6	2	2.7	Cristian Guzman
Salvador Perez	.253	.289	.448	100	.195	.275	4.7	6	2.6	Ramon Hernandez
Nicky Lopez	.260	.321	.344	85	.084	.286	4.0	4	1.5	Jeff Huson
Billy Hamilton	.242	.300	.330	75	.088	.309	4.1	9	1.4	Freddy Guzman
Alex Gordon	.230	.317	.352	85	.122	.292	4.0	10	1.1	Derek Bell
Xavier Fernandez	.248	.291	.365	80	.116	.285	3.7	2	0.6	Richard Suomi
Jorge Soler	.248	.340	.423	110	.176	.337	5.2	-5	0.6	Jeremy Giambi
Meibrys Viloria	.222	.277	.325	66	.103	.282	3.1	6	0.5	John Mizerock
Emmanuel Rivera	.258	.296	.373	84	.116	.308	3.8	2	0.5	Greg LaRocca
Ryan O’Hearn	.226	.307	.413	97	.187	.282	4.5	-2	0.4	Eric Valent
Jecksson Flores	.239	.279	.333	68	.093	.289	3.4	7	0.4	Kenny Perez
Cheslor Cuthbert	.241	.299	.382	87	.141	.284	4.0	-3	0.3	Bobby Holley
Brian Goodwin	.224	.288	.376	82	.153	.300	3.9	-1	0.3	Orsino Hill
Cam Gallagher	.225	.279	.313	64	.088	.256	3.1	4	0.3	Drew Butera
Donnie Dewees	.230	.276	.340	69	.110	.280	3.3	5	0.2	Joe Mathis
Frank Schwindel	.256	.286	.418	91	.162	.282	4.3	1	0.1	Leo Hernandez
Jorge Bonifacio	.232	.302	.379	87	.147	.306	4.0	0	0.1	Bill McCarthy
Brett Phillips	.200	.275	.344	70	.144	.315	3.3	10	0.1	Brad Snyder
Kelvin Gutierrez	.233	.279	.335	69	.102	.305	3.4	4	0.0	Edwin Rodriguez
Chris Owings	.241	.283	.365	78	.124	.305	3.8	-5	-0.1	Thomas Manzella
Kort Peterson	.225	.285	.367	79	.142	.322	3.6	3	-0.1	Brian Brady
Nick Dini	.230	.274	.331	67	.101	.276	3.3	-2	-0.1	Omir Santos
Bubba Starling	.199	.255	.327	59	.127	.280	2.8	4	-0.2	John Giudice
Hunter Dozier	.226	.285	.383	83	.156	.302	3.8	-7	-0.2	Rey Palacios
Khalil Lee	.211	.298	.345	78	.134	.317	3.2	-4	-0.3	Mel Hall
Erick Mejia	.232	.281	.325	67	.092	.297	3.2	2	-0.4	Ramon Caraballo
Alex Liddi	.219	.267	.406	82	.187	.296	3.8	0	-0.4	John Cotton
Blake Perkins	.202	.294	.280	60	.078	.285	2.7	3	-0.6	Tony Miller
Chris Owings	.240	.283	.364	78	.124	.305	3.8	-1	-0.6	Drew Anderson
Brewer Hicklen	.206	.261	.344	66	.138	.305	3.2	3	-0.6	Wilkin Ramirez
Corey Toups	.203	.275	.316	63	.112	.304	3.1	-2	-0.6	Sean Berry
Humberto Arteaga	.232	.259	.299	54	.067	.279	2.6	9	-0.6	Jim Scranton
Jack Lopez	.216	.250	.306	53	.090	.283	2.6	5	-0.7	Wade Robinson
Taylor Featherston	.190	.251	.306	53	.116	.284	2.7	2	-0.7	Chris Petersen
Ramon Torres	.239	.273	.316	63	.077	.277	3.0	1	-0.7	Dave Myers
Sebastian Rivero	.216	.245	.310	52	.094	.278	2.5	-1	-0.7	Kurt Brown
Samir Duenez	.228	.281	.368	78	.140	.283	3.7	-1	-0.8	Alex Hernandez
Anderson Miller	.222	.269	.332	65	.110	.288	3.1	4	-0.9	Jonathan Johnson
MJ Melendez	.185	.249	.341	61	.156	.296	2.6	-3	-0.9	Brandon Yarbrough
Parker Morin	.196	.240	.279	43	.084	.258	2.3	-3	-1.0	Dave Ullery
D.J. Burt	.212	.284	.290	60	.078	.287	2.8	-2	-1.1	Adam Davis
Terrance Gore	.199	.264	.222	37	.023	.277	2.7	-4	-1.1	Craig Griffey
Nick Heath	.195	.261	.254	44	.059	.302	2.4	0	-1.2	Jeff Conger
Manny Olloque	.208	.245	.316	54	.108	.307	2.5	-2	-1.3	Mario Ramirez
Elier Hernandez	.214	.254	.299	53	.085	.287	2.4	2	-2.1	Rick Bernardo

Pitchers – Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO
Jake Junis	R	26	10	10	4.37	29	28	164.7	172	80	26	38	143
Brad Keller	R	23	9	9	4.20	43	24	156.3	168	73	15	46	97
Danny Duffy	L	30	10	9	4.37	26	26	148.3	151	72	19	51	129
Trevor Oaks	R	26	9	9	4.41	25	24	136.7	158	67	13	38	72
Ben Lively	R	27	7	8	4.35	25	21	120.0	128	58	14	38	88
Richard Lovelady	L	23	4	3	3.52	54	0	71.7	68	28	4	26	59
Jesse Hahn	R	29	5	5	4.52	18	17	87.7	92	44	8	38	60
Glenn Sparkman	R	27	6	7	4.79	29	19	118.3	139	63	17	27	70
Sam McWilliams	R	23	6	8	4.74	23	20	108.3	123	57	12	42	71
Arnaldo Hernandez	R	23	7	8	4.95	26	22	120.0	137	66	16	41	69
Nate Karns	R	31	3	3	4.57	14	12	69.0	69	35	10	29	65
Jonathan Dziedzic	L	28	7	8	4.98	22	22	115.7	132	64	14	44	66
Jason Hammel	R	36	7	9	4.83	30	20	123.0	140	66	18	35	91
Heath Fillmyer	R	25	6	8	5.09	28	26	138.0	152	78	18	58	85
Brian Flynn	L	29	4	4	4.19	42	1	68.7	72	32	6	27	44
Pedro Fernandez	R	25	4	4	4.52	33	4	65.7	70	33	6	29	41
Ian Kennedy	R	34	7	9	4.99	24	24	128.0	132	71	24	44	106
Jake Kalish	L	27	4	5	4.93	30	11	95.0	108	52	12	31	57
Gabe Speier	L	24	1	1	4.39	45	1	65.7	71	32	4	28	37
Jake Newberry	R	24	4	4	4.33	56	0	62.3	63	30	6	29	46
Tim Hill	L	29	2	2	4.33	57	0	54.0	55	26	6	21	45
Wily Peralta	R	30	4	5	4.82	40	11	89.7	96	48	11	44	75
Jason Adam	R	27	3	3	4.35	46	0	51.7	47	25	7	27	56
Kevin McCarthy	R	27	4	5	4.56	64	0	73.0	81	37	9	24	44
Foster Griffin	L	23	9	12	5.31	27	26	142.3	168	84	22	52	84
Eric Skoglund	L	26	4	6	5.24	21	20	99.7	114	58	17	30	68
Josh Staumont	R	25	5	7	5.18	35	14	92.0	84	53	9	80	97
Kyle Zimmer	R	27	1	1	4.94	11	4	31.0	32	17	4	16	27
Kevin Lenik	R	27	1	1	4.66	31	0	46.3	47	24	4	26	36
Sam Selman	L	28	3	3	4.73	37	0	45.7	40	24	4	38	49
Jorge Lopez	R	26	6	8	5.11	37	13	98.7	107	56	14	42	77
Scott Barlow	R	25	5	8	5.31	25	25	120.3	124	71	20	68	118
Seth Maness	R	30	2	2	4.64	33	0	42.7	51	22	6	8	23
Enny Romero	L	28	2	3	4.91	44	0	44.0	45	24	6	22	41
Conner Greene	R	24	5	6	5.40	36	15	95.0	100	57	6	80	61
Zach Lovvorn	R	25	6	9	5.50	27	22	126.0	153	77	17	50	62
Walker Sheller	R	24	3	4	5.01	40	0	55.7	63	31	6	25	30
Scott Blewett	R	23	6	8	5.55	25	25	136.3	161	84	19	58	73
Michael Ynoa	R	27	1	1	5.13	27	0	33.3	34	19	3	22	25
Grant Gavin	R	23	1	2	5.05	36	0	51.7	52	29	6	32	46
Yunior Marte	R	24	4	4	5.01	42	0	73.7	75	41	8	44	58
Brandon Maurer	R	28	4	4	4.91	60	0	58.7	62	32	7	28	49
Blaine Boyer	R	37	2	2	5.18	35	0	41.7	47	24	5	18	27
Chris Ellis	R	26	4	7	5.62	20	15	81.7	92	51	14	41	64
Burch Smith	R	29	3	4	5.58	32	7	69.3	74	43	11	38	60
Kyle Lohse	R	40	5	9	5.62	23	18	112.0	132	70	21	35	67
Andres Machado	R	26	4	6	5.82	33	13	85.0	100	55	14	40	56
Ofreidy Gomez	R	23	6	10	5.82	27	21	123.7	148	80	18	65	67
Gerson Garabito	R	23	5	8	6.12	24	24	114.7	131	78	19	72	70

Pitchers – Rate Stats

Player	TBF	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA+	ERA-	FIP	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Jake Junis	704	7.82	2.08	1.42	.301	98	102	4.38	2.0	Ed Lynch
Brad Keller	675	5.58	2.65	0.86	.299	99	101	4.14	1.9	Lindy McDaniel
Danny Duffy	642	7.83	3.09	1.15	.302	98	102	4.23	1.8	Kent Mercker
Trevor Oaks	602	4.74	2.50	0.86	.307	94	106	4.32	1.4	Jack Russell
Ben Lively	524	6.60	2.85	1.05	.302	96	104	4.33	1.3	Howie Fox
Richard Lovelady	308	7.41	3.27	0.50	.298	122	82	3.48	1.1	Pat Clements
Jesse Hahn	390	6.16	3.90	0.82	.300	95	105	4.40	0.9	Don Schwall
Glenn Sparkman	517	5.32	2.05	1.29	.307	90	111	4.67	0.9	John Doherty
Sam McWilliams	488	5.90	3.49	1.00	.312	88	114	4.64	0.8	Mark Cahill
Arnaldo Hernandez	535	5.18	3.08	1.20	.301	87	115	4.93	0.7	Michael Macdonald
Nate Karns	302	8.48	3.78	1.30	.301	94	106	4.50	0.7	Ryan Glynn
Jonathan Dziedzic	519	5.14	3.42	1.09	.303	86	116	4.88	0.7	Jimmy Anderson
Jason Hammel	540	6.66	2.56	1.32	.312	86	116	4.55	0.6	Mickey Weston
Heath Fillmyer	620	5.54	3.78	1.17	.296	85	118	5.03	0.6	Steve Falteisek
Brian Flynn	302	5.77	3.54	0.79	.297	103	97	4.32	0.6	Tom Burgmeier
Pedro Fernandez	295	5.62	3.97	0.82	.298	95	105	4.60	0.5	Jim McDonald
Ian Kennedy	556	7.45	3.09	1.69	.286	83	120	5.08	0.5	Dennis Springer
Jake Kalish	422	5.40	2.94	1.14	.304	87	115	4.76	0.5	Pat Clements
Gabe Speier	295	5.07	3.84	0.55	.302	98	102	4.28	0.4	Mike Cosgrove
Jake Newberry	277	6.64	4.19	0.87	.295	99	101	4.47	0.4	Hal Reniff
Tim Hill	237	7.50	3.50	1.00	.302	99	101	4.26	0.4	Todd Rizzo
Wily Peralta	405	7.53	4.42	1.10	.313	86	116	4.64	0.3	Blue Moon Odom
Jason Adam	230	9.75	4.70	1.22	.294	99	101	4.54	0.3	Bryce Florie
Kevin McCarthy	321	5.42	2.96	1.11	.299	94	106	4.66	0.3	Lew Burdette
Foster Griffin	643	5.31	3.29	1.39	.306	81	123	5.24	0.3	Jason Dickson
Eric Skoglund	441	6.14	2.71	1.54	.303	82	122	5.09	0.3	Eric Knott
Josh Staumont	440	9.49	7.83	0.88	.302	83	121	5.12	0.2	Chad Reineke
Kyle Zimmer	141	7.84	4.65	1.16	.304	87	115	4.83	0.1	Lou Kretlow
Kevin Lenik	211	6.99	5.05	0.78	.303	92	108	4.60	0.1	Ken Wright
Sam Selman	215	9.66	7.49	0.79	.298	91	110	4.84	0.1	Mike Kinnunen
Jorge Lopez	443	7.02	3.83	1.28	.305	82	123	4.86	0.1	Tim Crabtree
Scott Barlow	552	8.83	5.09	1.50	.307	79	127	5.22	0.1	Elvin Nina
Seth Maness	184	4.85	1.69	1.27	.308	90	111	4.53	0.1	Tony Arnold
Enny Romero	197	8.39	4.50	1.23	.307	88	114	4.63	0.0	Joey Long
Conner Greene	463	5.78	7.58	0.57	.303	80	126	5.40	0.0	Walt Masterson
Zach Lovvorn	577	4.43	3.57	1.21	.308	78	128	5.28	0.0	Mark Cahill
Walker Sheller	253	4.85	4.04	0.97	.302	86	117	4.98	-0.1	Bob Miller
Scott Blewett	625	4.82	3.83	1.25	.304	78	129	5.34	-0.1	Frank Castillo
Michael Ynoa	157	6.75	5.94	0.81	.301	84	119	5.16	-0.1	Ken Wright
Grant Gavin	238	8.01	5.57	1.05	.305	85	117	4.91	-0.1	Pete Sikaras
Yunior Marte	338	7.09	5.38	0.98	.299	86	116	4.94	-0.1	Joe Hudson
Brandon Maurer	264	7.52	4.30	1.07	.309	85	118	4.56	-0.1	Jose Segura
Blaine Boyer	188	5.83	3.89	1.08	.307	83	121	4.78	-0.1	Bob Scanlan
Chris Ellis	379	7.05	4.52	1.54	.308	76	132	5.57	-0.1	Mark Woodyard
Burch Smith	318	7.79	4.93	1.43	.306	75	134	5.26	-0.3	Marty McLeary
Kyle Lohse	498	5.38	2.81	1.69	.299	74	135	5.44	-0.4	Ed Riley
Andres Machado	393	5.93	4.24	1.48	.309	74	135	5.56	-0.4	Mark Woodyard
Ofreidy Gomez	582	4.88	4.73	1.31	.307	74	135	5.73	-0.5	Clint Sodowsky
Gerson Garabito	545	5.49	5.65	1.49	.297	70	142	6.15	-0.8	Jake Robbins

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.