2019 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins.

Batters

The lineup projections didn’t come out as poorly as I expected, though that may just mean I’m a particularly pessimistic individual. J.T. Realmuto is for real, of course, but that pretty little 3.6 WAR in the graphic may well be replaced with a WAR figure starting with a zero by the time the season actually starts. The effort to trade Realmuto has been a fascinating process, now going on for the better part of a year, with the team making noise that it would take a phenomenal offer for them to part with the catcher. Now, it could be interpreted as posturing, given that the team reportedly asked for the stars for the members of their Giancarlo Stanton/Christian Yelich/Marcell Ozuna outfield and settled for a moon pie. But I’m coming around to the idea that if Realmuto actually could be acquired for an ordinary package, he’d already be gone at this point. With the large-market teams continuing to display a real tendency to avoid spending, there may be a less willingness to part with a large pile of top prospects, those being needed to continue this cheap frugal strategy.

ZiPS isn’t yet impressed with Austin Dean, but outside of his modest projection, the only gaping wound — I’m still more optimistic than ZiPS on Brinson, though my cheerful good nature is dissipating — is at first base, where ZiPS projects the Marlins to have a worse first base situation than the Orioles do. Generally speaking, you’d like your first baseman to be above the Chris Davis Line. O’Brien did have a decent cameo appearance with the big league club, but he has a rather pedestrian minor league record and little defensive value. There’s one caveat though: O’Brien really did show far more patience than he ever had before in his brief stint in Miami, which is at least a good sign. He’s always had power and if his approach at the plate continues to be more scientific than his previous method of smashing lab equipment with a meteor hammer while blindfolded, perhaps he can make the computer look foolish.

There’s very little regression projected from Brian Anderson, which is also a positive note. Well, it’s positive if he does it; Anderson is one of the bigger disagreements ZiPS has with Steamer. If he can, it’ll improve the package the Marlins get in a trade when they’re required to pay Anderson something commensurate with his contributions!

One of the strangest rumors so far this offseason was the late buzz that the Marlins were interested in Nick Markakis. Markakis likely would have been a short-term upgrade over Dean, but it’s hard to see what the point would have been. Even if we accept for the sake of argument that fans will come out to see an additional win or two from a bad team, this is the Marlins we’re talking about. After so much ill will richly earned by the organization, they may be at the point where it takes something of a miracle to grow the fanbase; this isn’t a matter of winning 65 game instead of 64. Markakis has been safely returned to Atlanta, a destination that makes far more sense for him; the Marlins have safely returned to their paltry outfield projection.

Pitchers

The biggest positive here is Pablo Lopez, one of four players picked up from the Mariners in the David Phelps trade back in 2017. ZiPS doesn’t project a Luis Severino-esque breakout season for Lopez, but it does have him as a contributing, if fairly ordinary, starting pitcher. Even more, ZiPS has Lopez as the team’s best starting pitcher, and does so with an unusual level of certainty for a minor league pitcher of the non-elite variety.

Lopez is far from guaranteed a rotation spot in spring training, which strikes me as a mistake. If the team is actually serious about a full-on rebuild, rather than simply lurching from fire sale to fire sale to bide time between new ballparks, it’s important to see as much of pitchers like Lopez, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and Caleb Smith as possible.

There’s unlikely to be much of a market for Wei-Yin Chen or Dan Straily no matter how long you “showcase” them. There are only so many roster spots and it will be harder to give pitchers like Lopez an extended audition with some of the pressure from below (Nick Neidert, Edward Cabrera, Jorge Guzman, etc.). If the Marlins want to be eternally “thrifty,” then they need to run the roster in such a way where they can find the inexpensive players who will actually make that strategy possible.

Bench and Prospects

It’s galling, but ZiPS isn’t terribly hopeful about the chances of the team getting any core players from the Stanton/Yelich/Ozuna dealing. My colleagues Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen are more optimistic, and Marlins fans have to be pulling for them to make the computer look foolish. What it comes down to is that ZiPS wants to see, at some point, the raw power actually become game power for Isan Diaz, and in the case of Monte Harrison, for him to not strike out 200 times in Double-A. Brinson’s struggles in the majors have been well-documented, and you don’t want me to tell you what projection percentile Magneuris Sierra has to meet in order to match the dizzying heights of Tom Goodwin.

Overall, the minor league system is still in the below-average range, but it’s certainly improved from the desolate days of recent yore, when a mannequin dressed up as Nolan Ryan might have made the team’s top 20 list.

If I apply human feelings to ZiPS, I think it would like to see Miguel Rojas get a chance at being a stopgap shortstop for someone. It would have to happen fairly quickly, as he’ll turn 30 next month, but with 2.4 WAR in 834 PA over the last two seasons, a projection in the same time zone as two wins for 2019, and the ability to play multiple positions well, he could be a solid fill-in for someone in an emergency. I mean, a major league team* actually voluntarily played Alcides Escobar in 2018.

*Legally, the 2018 Royals were part of major league baseball.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
J.T. Realmuto R 28 C 134 507 71 135 30 4 19 74 38 109 5 2
Brian Anderson R 26 RF 156 579 83 151 31 4 14 70 60 136 2 3
Miguel Rojas R 30 SS 150 431 45 112 18 1 7 45 24 56 4 3
Starlin Castro R 29 2B 149 568 65 152 27 2 14 61 34 110 5 3
JT Riddle L 27 SS 119 412 42 101 17 4 9 48 25 88 3 3
Martin Prado R 35 3B 96 362 34 93 17 1 4 37 24 55 1 1
Brian Miller L 23 LF 122 502 51 133 20 4 0 36 30 77 31 12
Isaac Galloway R 29 RF 121 389 45 91 17 3 10 40 24 100 17 7
Derek Dietrich L 29 LF 145 452 60 112 24 4 14 49 33 121 1 1
Lewis Brinson R 25 CF 113 419 44 91 16 5 13 49 27 124 7 3
Monte Harrison R 23 CF 135 521 62 107 18 2 16 51 38 214 22 8
Jon Berti R 29 3B 94 347 39 79 11 4 5 28 26 79 21 8
Rafael Ortega L 28 LF 131 437 51 106 19 6 3 38 42 65 15 5
Austin Dean R 25 LF 134 498 62 127 25 4 11 59 37 96 4 3
Dixon Machado R 27 2B 122 411 42 93 18 1 4 33 33 80 7 3
Eric Campbell R 32 2B 102 324 45 77 14 2 5 37 45 68 5 4
Garrett Cooper R 28 1B 100 343 40 84 18 1 9 41 27 86 1 1
Cristhian Adames B 27 2B 128 419 45 99 15 4 6 37 32 76 5 4
Bryan Holaday R 31 C 77 225 19 49 10 0 4 26 12 45 0 1
Isan Diaz L 23 2B 119 439 52 88 18 4 10 46 55 153 9 3
Chad Wallach R 27 C 69 231 25 47 11 0 6 23 22 77 0 1
Rodrigo Vigil R 26 C 78 271 24 62 10 1 2 19 8 42 1 1
Jonathan Rodriguez R 29 1B 108 381 49 83 15 0 12 41 46 124 3 1
Rosell Herrera B 26 RF 118 409 44 95 17 4 5 32 33 93 12 6
Scott Van Slyke R 32 1B 69 183 20 36 8 0 5 19 20 59 2 1
Deven Marrero R 28 SS 102 295 34 60 11 1 4 24 21 93 7 3
Pedro Alvarez L 32 1B 114 378 44 83 15 0 17 54 33 117 1 0
Chris Diaz R 28 SS 77 225 21 43 7 1 0 11 23 65 3 2
John Silviano L 24 1B 96 341 39 69 12 3 12 39 33 134 3 3
Cito Culver B 26 SS 94 317 30 60 12 2 6 26 26 115 2 2
Joe Dunand R 23 SS 130 480 52 101 19 1 12 53 32 144 1 2
Yadiel Rivera R 27 3B 123 323 30 59 8 3 3 23 23 109 4 3
Bryson Brigman R 24 SS 122 493 47 110 13 3 3 31 30 94 13 8
Justin Twine R 23 2B 107 386 36 85 11 6 5 34 14 109 8 6
Magneuris Sierra L 23 CF 142 516 49 121 17 6 3 37 23 110 17 9
James Nelson R 21 3B 94 362 34 83 17 1 3 30 20 128 3 1
B.J. Lopez R 24 C 52 168 13 28 3 0 0 6 14 53 0 1
Peter O’Brien R 28 1B 121 420 51 81 16 2 21 57 40 182 1 0
Harold Rami
rez
R 24 RF 123 475 48 113 21 2 7 44 23 102 9 4
Gabriel Guerrero R 25 RF 141 512 54 118 20 4 12 51 27 143 4 4
Sharif Othman B 30 C 62 203 16 35 6 0 3 15 12 77 0 1
JB Shuck L 32 LF 119 333 33 76 14 2 2 23 27 44 7 3
Riley Mahan L 23 2B 113 442 35 89 18 3 3 32 21 150 6 2
Eric Jagielo L 27 1B 111 374 33 62 14 0 7 31 31 153 1 0

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
J.T. Realmuto .266 .326 .454 114 .187 .306 5.5 2 3.9 Thurman Munson
Brian Anderson .261 .342 .401 106 .140 .319 4.9 8 3.1 Pat Tabler
Miguel Rojas .260 .307 .355 84 .095 .285 3.9 7 1.8 Jack Wilson
Starlin Castro .268 .310 .396 95 .129 .311 4.5 -3 1.6 Hubie Brooks
JT Riddle .245 .286 .371 81 .126 .292 3.7 4 1.3 Ronny Cedeno
Martin Prado .257 .304 .343 80 .086 .294 3.8 3 0.8 Ray Knight
Brian Miller .265 .309 .321 76 .056 .313 3.8 9 0.8 Gerardo Parra
Isaac Galloway .234 .282 .370 79 .136 .290 3.8 7 0.7 Manny Martinez
Derek Dietrich .248 .327 .412 104 .164 .309 4.8 -8 0.6 Ben Broussard
Lewis Brinson .217 .269 .372 76 .155 .277 3.5 2 0.6 Shawn Abner
Monte Harrison .205 .273 .340 69 .134 .313 3.3 3 0.5 Wilkin Ramirez
Jon Berti .228 .294 .326 72 .098 .281 3.5 2 0.5 Zach Sorensen
Rafael Ortega .243 .310 .334 79 .092 .279 3.8 4 0.5 Sam Fuld
Austin Dean .255 .311 .388 93 .133 .297 4.3 -4 0.4 Matt Miller
Dixon Machado .226 .289 .304 65 .078 .272 3.1 5 0.4 Osmani Estrada
Eric Campbell .238 .337 .340 89 .102 .287 4.0 -7 0.4 Bobby Scales
Garrett Cooper .245 .305 .382 90 .137 .302 4.1 1 0.3 Mike Brown
Cristhian Adames .236 .291 .334 73 .098 .276 3.4 1 0.3 Chris Lombardozzi
Bryan Holaday .218 .263 .316 60 .098 .256 2.8 4 0.2 Rick Cerone
Isan Diaz .200 .293 .328 72 .128 .283 3.3 -2 0.2 Brandon Cromer
Chad Wallach .203 .280 .329 69 .126 .277 3.0 0 0.2 Carl Nichols
Rodrigo Vigil .229 .263 .295 55 .066 .264 2.7 3 0.0 Luis Oliveros
Jonathan Rodriguez .218 .303 .352 82 .134 .290 3.7 -1 0.0 Reggie Whittemore
Rosell Herrera .232 .291 .330 73 .098 .289 3.4 2 -0.2 Ed Yacopino
Scott Van Slyke .197 .287 .322 69 .126 .261 3.1 1 -0.2 Dusty Wathan
Deven Marrero .203 .256 .288 51 .085 .283 2.5 2 -0.3 Frank Kremblas
Pedro Alvarez .220 .283 .394 85 .175 .270 3.9 -4 -0.3 Tony Clark
Chris Diaz .191 .274 .231 43 .040 .269 2.1 2 -0.3 Les Dennis
John Silviano .202 .276 .361 75 .158 .292 3.3 1 -0.4 Travis Ishikawa
Cito Culver .189 .249 .297 51 .107 .276 2.4 3 -0.4 Brad Harman
Joe Dunand .210 .268 .329 65 .119 .275 2.9 -4 -0.4 Sergio Santos
Yadiel Rivera .183 .242 .254 38 .071 .265 2.0 10 -0.4 Chris Petersen
Bryson Brigman .223 .273 .280 54 .057 .270 2.6 2 -0.4 Alex Prieto
Justin Twine .220 .259 .319 59 .098 .294 2.7 2 -0.4 Tim Florez
Magneuris Sierra .234 .269 .308 60 .074 .293 2.9 1 -0.7 Jay Davis
James Nelson .229 .275 .307 62 .077 .346 3.0 -2 -0.7 Mark Wasinger
B.J. Lopez .167 .234 .185 19 .018 .243 1.3 2 -0.8 Rick Cerone
Peter O’Brien .193 .266 .390 79 .198 .276 3.5 -6 -0.9 Danny Peoples
Harold Ramirez .238 .281 .335 70 .097 .290 3.4 -4 -1.1 Ronald Crowe
Gabriel Guerrero .230 .268 .355 71 .125 .297 3.3 -3 -1.2 Victor Mata
Sharif Othman .172 .226 .246 31 .074 .260 1.7 -5 -1.4 Charlie Greene
JB Shuck .228 .286 .300 63 .072 .258 3.0 -6 -1.4 Doug Dascenzo
Riley Mahan .201 .244 .276 44 .075 .298 2.3 -3 -1.8 Charlie Hayes
Eric Jagielo .166 .240 .259 39 .094 .257 2.0 0 -2.3 Shawn Buhner

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Pablo Lopez R 23 6 6 4.04 24 23 127.0 131 57 15 35 95
Nick Neidert R 22 9 10 4.39 26 26 139.3 147 68 22 34 111
Trevor Richards R 26 8 9 4.25 28 28 146.0 143 69 19 53 134
Jose Urena R 27 8 10 4.36 29 26 144.3 145 70 19 50 105
Zac Gallen R 23 8 9 4.39 25 25 135.3 141 66 18 50 111
Wei-Yin Chen L 33 7 8 4.51 24 24 121.7 125 61 20 37 101
Hector Noesi R 32 6 7 4.60 19 18 115.3 125 59 14 39 72
Dustin Beggs R 26 6 7 4.60 25 18 107.7 118 55 16 31 76
Drew Steckenrider R 28 3 3 3.67 65 0 61.3 53 25 6 30 71
Sandy Alcantara R 23 6 7 4.63 28 26 142.0 145 73 15 73 104
Mike Kickham L 30 4 5 4.48 22 13 80.3 86 40 10 24 54
Kyle Keller R 26 3 2 3.61 42 1 52.3 44 21 4 30 59
Caleb Smith L 27 5 6 4.57 21 17 88.7 83 45 12 42 88
Robert Dugger R 23 7 9 4.61 26 23 130.7 138 67 18 50 97
Jordan Yamamoto R 23 4 5 4.41 18 16 81.7 79 40 10 33 74
Joe Gunkel R 27 5 7 4.69 26 17 103.7 116 54 17 18 64
Ben Meyer R 26 4 5 4.36 29 11 84.7 88 41 8 34 61
Brian Moran L 30 2 2 3.83 45 0 54.0 50 23 5 24 53
Jumbo Diaz R 35 4 4 3.72 43 1 46.0 42 19 4 21 43
Dylan Lee L 24 5 5 3.95 47 0 54.7 53 24 4 27 45
Jose Quijada L 23 4 4 3.86 45 0 58.3 51 25 4 33 61
Tommy Eveld R 25 4 3 3.75 47 0 48.0 44 20 4 20 44
Nick Anderson R 28 3 2 3.94 44 0 48.0 42 21 7 19 57
Nick Wittgren R 28 4 4 3.96 55 0 61.3 61 27 7 18 55
Chris O’Grady L 29 4 5 4.65 28 10 69.7 71 36 11 27 60
Drew Rucinski R 30 3 3 4.21 50 0 62.0 64 29 7 20 46
Adam Conley L 29 3 4 4.18 74 0 71.0 68 33 8 32 62
Kolton Mahoney R 27 5 7 4.85 27 12 89.0 101 48 13 28 54
Dan Straily R 30 6 9 5.04 26 26 135.7 139 76 26 55 113
Sean Burnett L 36 1 1 4.18 28 0 28.0 28 13 3 9 22
Javy Guerra R 33 3 3 4.50 44 0 52.0 52 26 6 24 45
Riley Ferrell R 25 3 3 4.50 43 0 52.0 47 26 5 35 53
Jeff Brigham R 27 6 9 4.93 21 20 95.0 100 52 13 47 74
Tyler Stevens R 23 6 7 4.40 47 0 71.7 71 35 11 25 68
Tayron Guerrero R 28 2 3 4.47 58 0 58.3 54 29 8 34 66
R.J. Alvarez R 28 3 4 4.64 45 0 42.7 40 22 5 26 42
McKenzie Mills L 23 5 7 5.00 23 20 104.3 112 58 15 43 75
Tyler Kinley R 28 2 3 4.56 51 0 51.3 48 26 6 32 55
Julian Fernandez R 23 1 1 4.82 36 0 37.3 39 20 4 22 27
Jordan Holloway R 23 1 1 5.56 9 9 34.0 36 21 6 20 29
Merandy Gonzalez R 23 6 8 5.16 23 18 99.3 108 57 13 54 70
Esmerling de la Rosa R 28 2 3 5.06 35 3 58.7 65 33 8 29 39
Tyler Cloyd R 32 4 7 5.53 22 15 94.3 110 58 19 29 62
Brett Graves R 26 3 6 5.79 25 13 82.3 94 53 15 36 49
Jorge Guzman R 23 3 6 5.88 20 20 82.7 83 54 11 76 73
Jarlin Garcia L 26 3 6 5.45 42 14 100.7 112 61 19 40 64
Elieser Hernandez R 24 4 6 5.99 33 11 76.7 86 51 17 36 59

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Pablo Lopez 544 6.73 2.48 1.06 .296 99 101 4.18 1.6 Larry Christenson
Nick Neidert 596 7.17 2.20 1.42 .296 91 109 4.49 1.2 Dave Geeve
Trevor Richards 632 8.26 3.27 1.17 .297 91 109 4.26 1.2 Ben Hendrickson
Jose Urena 627 6.55 3.12 1.18 .284 89 112 4.65 1.0 Francisco Barrios
Zac Gallen 594 7.38 3.33 1.20 .301 89 113 4.50 0.9 Josh Fogg
Wei-Yin Chen 520 7.47 2.74 1.48 .292 89 112 4.59 0.9 Tom Browning
Hector Noesi 507 5.62 3.04 1.09 .295 87 115 4.65 0.7 Ownie Carroll
Dustin Beggs 470 6.35 2.59 1.34 .299 87 114 4.70 0.6 Nick Blackburn
Drew Steckenrider 265 10.42 4.40 0.88 .301 106 94 3.67 0.6 Roy Smith
Sandy Alcantara 641 6.59 4.63 0.95 .295 84 119 4.77 0.6 Mike Torrez
Mike Kickham 349 6.05 2.69 1.12 .296 90 112 4.47 0.6 Jeff Ballard
Kyle Keller 231 10.15 5.16 0.69 .296 108 93 3.78 0.6 Clay Bryant
Caleb Smith 389 8.93 4.26 1.22 .292 88 114 4.48 0.6 Mike Chris
Robert Dugger 578 6.68 3.44 1.24 .296 84 119 4.79 0.5 Michael Macdonald
Jordan Yamamoto 356 8.16 3.64 1.10 .295 88 113 4.33 0.5 Rick Rodriguez
Joe Gunkel 442 5.56 1.56 1.48 .293 86 117 4.71 0.5 Josh Towers
Ben Meyer 375 6.48 3.61 0.85 .301 89 112 4.35 0.5 Marino Pieretti
Brian Moran 235 8.83 4.00 0.83 .300 105 95 3.89 0.5 Juan Agosto
Jumbo Diaz 200 8.41 4.11 0.78 .292 105 96 3.91 0.4 Diego Segui
Dylan Lee 244 7.41 4.45 0.66 .299 102 98 4.16 0.4 Mike Cosgrove
Jose Quijada 259 9.41 5.09 0.62 .299 101 99 3.85 0.4 Grant Jackson
Tommy Eveld 207 8.25 3.75 0.75 .292 104 96 3.78 0.4 Jerry Reed
Nick Anderson 205 10.69 3.56 1.31 .294 102 98 4.05 0.4 Jose Veras
Nick Wittgren 261 8.07 2.64 1.03 .302 98 102 3.82 0.3 Jose Silva
Chris O’Grady 305 7.75 3.49 1.42 .294 86 116 4.77 0.3 Mark Watson
Drew Rucinski 269 6.68 2.90 1.02 .297 95 105 4.30 0.3 Ron Taylor
Adam Conley 312 7.86 4.06 1.01 .291 93 108 4.39 0.2 Jim Roland
Kolton Mahoney 395 5.46 2.83 1.31 .299 83 121 4.98 0.2 Steve Lemke
Dan Straily 597 7.50 3.65 1.72 .285 80 126 5.32 0.1 Steve McCatty
Sean Burnett 120 7.07 2.89 0.96 .294 96 104 4.04 0.1 Steve Hamilton
Javy Guerra 231 7.79 4.15 1.04 .301 89 112 4.48 0.0 Jerry Johnson
Riley Ferrell 237 9.17 6.06 0.87 .298 89 112 4.55 0.0 Marc Pisciotta
Jeff Brigham 431 7.01 4.45 1.23 .299 79 127 5.04 0.0 Landon Jacobsen
Tyler Stevens 310 8.54 3.14 1.38 .297 88 113 4.46 0.0 Kevin Price
Tayron Guerrero 262 10.18 5.25 1.23 .305 87 115 4.57 0.0 Mike MacDougal
R.J. Alvarez 193 8.86 5.48 1.05 .297 87 116 4.67 0.0 Ryan Henderson
McKenzie Mills 466 6.47 3.71 1.29 .297 78 129 4.99 -0.1 J.R. Richard
Tyler Kinley 234 9.64 5.61 1.05 .304 85 117 4.57 -0.1 Mike MacDougal
Julian Fernandez 172 6.51 5.30 0.96 .299 81 124 5.03 -0.2 Dave Cole
Jordan Holloway 158 7.68 5.29 1.59 .297 70 143 5.68 -0.2 Luz Portobanco
Merandy Gonzalez 458 6.34 4.89 1.18 .302 75 133 5.25 -0.3 Jake Joseph
Esmerling de la Rosa 269 5.98 4.45 1.23 .302 77 130 5.28 -0.3 Mike Bumstead
Tyler Cloyd 419 5.92 2.77 1.81 .299 73 138 5.54 -0.5 Allen Davis
Brett Graves 376 5.36 3.94 1.64 .293 69 144 5.86 -0.7 Scott Shoemaker
Jorge Guzman 407 7.95 8.27 1.20 .299 68 146 6.09 -0.7 Edwin Morel
Jarlin Garcia 449 5.72 3.58 1.70 .288 71 140 5.61 -0.8 Rick DeHart
Elieser Hernandez 349 6.93 4.23 2.00 .295 67 149 6.02 -0.9 Kevin Vent

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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I think there’s something wrong with the graphics. I was looking for that neat little diamond graphic, but the only thing I see looks like a big ol’ poop emoji to me