Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/25/19
9:03 |
: Hello friends |
9:03 |
: Welcome to Friday baseball chat |
9:04 |
: Opinions on Joe Ross vs Erick Fedde? Expectations? |
9:05 |
: I know it’s a small sample and I know Ross was coming back from surgery, but over all appearances last year he only struck out 26 batters in 42.1 innings |
9:05 |
: 7 in 16 in the majors |
9:06 |
: Real potential there for Ross to be a quality 4/5 but at the moment I’m a bigger fan of Fedde |
9:07 |
: Unsurprisingly, my view is that the Nationals will end up needing both of them |
9:07 |
: Do you think Dave is advocating for Harper or Machado? |
9:08 |
: No question in my mind that Dave would love to sign Machado. There is no single better fit in the world for the Padres than Machado. He is exactly what they need. But nothing about that Union-Tribune article the other day suggested the Padres were about to spend big for 2019 |
9:08 |
: So Dave can want what he wants, but it wouldn’t be his call |
9:09 |
: Hosmer is such a catastrophe. Just imagine where the Padres could be if they hadn’t signed him |
9:10 |
: Left-handed pitchers are baseball’s recipient demographic of affirmative action |
9:10 |
: It always amuses me when teams talk about the importance of balance. And look, I get it, you like to give different hitters different looks and different angles, but no one ever won a World Series because they had X number of left-handed pitchers |
9:12 |
: The 2004 Red Sox had Alan Embree |
9:13 |
: That’s it. That was their southpaw |
9:13 |
: The 2017 Astros only had Dallas Keuchel and Tony Sipp |
9:14 |
: Aren’t the Yankees basically the same team they were last year but with the addition of Paxton? I know they have been the most active but I don’t think they have improved at all that much. Agreed? |
9:15 |
: James Paxton is very good, DJ LeMahieu is better than Neil Walker, and last year’s Yankees won 100 games |
9:15 |
: Which team’s window will shut the hardest when a specific player leaves? |
9:15 |
: It’s Trout and the Angels, if we come to that point |
9:16 |
: There’s just no one on his level |
9:17 |
: Is Nick Castellanos actually good? |
9:17 |
: He’s a very productive DH |
9:17 |
: You don’t want to have to play him anywhere |
9:18 |
: He’s basically fast-fashion J.D. Martinez. He’s the Martinez knock-off you get at H&M |
9:20 |
: Would an offer of Kiebert Ruiz, Dustin May, and Gavin Lux be sufficient for the Marlins to move Realmuto? Whose getting the hose in this hypothetical? |
9:21 |
: At first glance, that doesn’t seem like a bad deal for either side. Worth noting it was exactly one year ago today the Marlins finally traded Christian Yelich |
9:23 |
: Maybe Russell Martin goes the other way since the Marlins would need a catcher, but whatever. If they insist on Barnes, then the Dodgers ask for something else, like, I don’t know, Neidert? |
9:24 |
: Given a starting 4 of Nelson, Chacin, Anderson, and Davies, who among Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes has the best shot at the #5 spot? |
9:25 |
: I’d guess Woodruff out of camp, but they’re definitely going to need and use all of them, and more |
9:26 |
: Peralta’s going to need to do something to combat lefties. That’ll be his 2019 project. Burnes has a chance to seize a rotation spot for the long haul but he’ll need to be eased in |
9:26 |
: with Pollock going to the Dodgers, can the Phillies and Harper finally agree to a contract already? |
9:27 |
: They’re going to sign Harper or Machado. It’s a near-guarantee. But it’s only half up to them |
9:28 |
: the A’s could use julio teheran, right? that shouldn’t cost them too much, and he would at least be…something? |
9:29 |
: Teheran would slightly lift the A’s floor, I suppose, but he’s not very good. The A’s don’t need him, specifically, because he’s a No. 4 or 5 starter. Their rotation looks a lot more interesting if/when Luzardo and Puk are in the fold |
9:30 |
: Do you see a change of scenery as enough for Sonny Gray to return to his A’s level of production? |
9:31 |
: Higher ERA, but similar peripherals. He’ll be a No. 2 more than he’ll be an ace. Hoping that Castillo takes over as their ace |
9:33 |
: Advances in player development over recent years seems to have anecdotally increased the hit rate of prospects. With that in mind, how much do you believe first round picks have increased in value from first round picks 20 years ago? |
9:33 |
: Just for fun, looking at the first round from 2013, 66% of drafted players have reached the majors. Looking at the first round from 1993, 66% of drafted players reached the majors |
9:34 |
: Looking at the first round from 2003, 72% of drafted players reached the majors |
9:35 |
: This is obviously not close to rigorous enough, but I don’t think the value of a first-rounder has gone up *that* much. For one thing, there are only so many major-league jobs to go around. And for another, it’s possible, if not probable, that advances in player development have most benefited the guys who *aren’t* blue-chippers |
9:36 |
: To me, anecdotally, this has become the era of pop-up prospects and overachievers. Again, that’s unproven, but that’s my sense |
9:37 |
: Between Boras and national writers, lots of different and complicated ideas for fixing the players comp system. More complicated usually = more unintended consequences. What’s wrong with simple: increase the cap and institute a meaningful salary floor? |
9:38 |
: A salary floor still might just incentivize small-budget operations to load up on bad contracts |
9:39 |
: Both of your ideas are useful, but I don’t think they address the real issue — you’d get more money spent on free agents, out of necessity, but you still wouldn’t be paying players for when they’re actually at their best |
9:40 |
: Salary minimums need to be higher, and either free agency should arrive sooner, or there need to be service-time-linked mandatory escalations |
9:41 |
: It still doesn’t make a lot of sense to have the biggest salaries going to players 30+. Money needs to be shifted toward the front. Do that and some of the veterans would benefit anyway as a consequence |
9:42 |
: Do you think Stanton can/will cut his k% to something closer to his 2017 numbers (24%), or was 2017 an outlier for him? Thanks! |
9:42 |
: 2017 sure looks like the outlier in his record |
9:42 |
: Hello friend |
9:42 |
: Hello friend |
9:42 |
: Jeff,whats your opinion on Harold Baines induction. |
9:42 |
: It’s on the negative side of indifferent |
9:43 |
: Even in this free agent market, it seems like the buzz around Marwin Gonzalez is really light. Why is that? It seems like just about every team could use him. |
9:44 |
: There was a ton of Marwin buzz earlier on, that simply died down. I’m going to guess his agent held out for a very large commitment, and so teams just moved on from there. We’ve seen a number of guys get signed on the idea that they’ll become multi-positional players, like Lowrie, LeMahieu, etc |
9:44 |
: But also, keep in mind, according to public rumors there are two teams on Machado and either one or two teams on Harper. Neither can be true. There just might not be that many leaks |
9:45 |
: I thought your article on the Reds was pretty good. I agree that the Brewers may step back unless they acquire some more pitching. The Reds front office said they still aren’t done making moves and that anyone else they acquire will have term. What do you see them doing? What would you do? |
9:46 |
: I think the obvious thing that’s left is for them to get a center fielder. The guy I love for them is JBJ, but it’s also entirely possible they determine that Senzel can cut it out of camp |
9:47 |
: Like everyone else, they could lengthen their bullpen, but maybe Stephenson or Romano really take to the role and tear it up |
9:48 |
: One minor downside of the Reds’ additions: I was hoping to see more of Cody Reed this season. I still like him |
9:48 |
: Does the AJ Pollack signing indicate more moves are coming for the Dodgers? |
9:48 |
: More moves are definitely coming for the Dodgers |
9:49 |
: Pederson or Verdugo are almost out of a job now. And the Realmuto rumors are legit |
9:49 |
: Which 3 teams would be hurt most of the league changed its DL rules to what’s apparently been proposed? |
9:50 |
: I don’t have great data on this. Moving back to a 15-day DL from 10 isn’t that significant of a jump. It feels like the Dodgers have abused the DL the most, so I guess they’d find themselves especially inconvenienced? |
9:52 |
: How much stock do you think teams put into how a free agent hits in their stadium? For example, while it’s a small sample size, Pollock hasn’t hit well at Dodger Stadium. They signed him, so they probably don’t care, but is it any consideration? Do you think he’ll be fine there? |
9:53 |
: Since 2012, AJ Pollock has a .653 OPS in Dodger Stadium. Since 2012, Dodgers pitchers have allowed a .646 OPS in Dodger Stadium. Pollock, then, has been a little better than average, adjusting for competition |
9:54 |
: I think teams definitely consider how a hitter’s profile matches up with a ballpark, but at this point I doubt they think that much about someone’s actual results in the same ballpark, because those numbers are subject to matchup concerns and small samples |
9:56 |
: Melancon for Chatwood…does that make any sense for both teams |
9:57 |
: Similar money, and while Melancon has a full no-trade it probably wouldn’t be an obstacle. I can see why the Giants might be interested, but given Melancon’s injury concerns, I’m not sure the Cubs would bite |
9:58 |
: I’d rather just give Chatwood a couple months of regular work in the bullpen and see how that goes |
9:59 |
: Most likely landing spot for Moustakas? |
9:59 |
: Woof |
9:59 |
: Torn between the Brewers and the Padres. Brewers would have to move Shaw to second, and I doubt the Padres like Moustakas that much, but he can’t be that expensive and the Padres will need a 3B eventually |
10:00 |
: How good can Josh James be? #3 starter too aggressive? |
10:00 |
: Not too aggressive. He’s incredibly talented |
10:01 |
: In adding A.J. Pollock to the Dodgers depth chart today Fangraphs lowered the Dodgers’ projected WAR from 49.8 to 49.2. Does that pass your sniff test? |
10:02 |
: I don’t think Pollock really made the Dodgers that much better on the surface. But he improves their depth and flexibility, which doesn’t really show up much in the overall depth-charts numbers. The Dodgers’ top-end projection probably isn’t better by a lot. But their floor is even higher than it used to be |
10:03 |
: Our numbers don’t do a great job of conveying who has a high floor, and who’s super volatile |
10:03 |
: Are the Phillies being overrated? I feel like the Phillies are overrated. |
10:03 |
: I think a lot of people think about the Phillies as being a team that already has one of Harper/Machado. Without one of them, the Phillies aren’t very good yet |
10:04 |
: I like the pitching staff, though. With a better team defense they’re going to look like a stronger unit |
10:06 |
: Do you think Eloy will make the team after spring training? |
10:06 |
: Sometime after spring training, yes! Immediately after spring training, no |
10:07 |
: If the Braves could keep down Acuna, and if the Cubs could keep down Bryant, and if the Nationals could keep down Harper, and if the Yankees could keep down Torres, the White Sox can keep down Jimenez. They will be manipulating his service time artificially, like usual, and, like usual, they’ll pay no price for doing so |
10:08 |
: Sometimes, rookies do break camp with the major-league team. Those rookies are almost always pitchers, because teams worry less about manipulating pitcher service time |
10:09 |
: Scott Kingery broke camp with the Phillies, but of course, he’d also signed a long-term contract. Eloy Jimenez won’t be doing that |
10:10 |
: Thoughts on the Rangers’ offseason so far? Cabrera, Chavez, and Miller look like good bang-for-the-buck signings. |
10:11 |
: I like that they got Smyly, too |
10:12 |
: The Rangers aren’t going to be good. The Rangers know they aren’t going to be good. But this is the difference between tanking and rebuilding. We almost never see real tankers. Those Astros were the exception. The Rangers are rebuilding while trying to keep the major-league roster half-decent. That’s how it ought to be |
10:13 |
: Am I crazy for being happy that my team doesn’t want to sign Harper? |
10:13 |
: No, if your team is the Tampa Bay Lightning |
10:13 |
: Oliver Drake seems to pitch well when given the reps. Are his league-wide travails a result of him being desirable, expendable? Help. |
10:14 |
: Oliver Drake is just good enough to be the 40th man on a 40-man roster. Last one in, first one out, that kind of thing |
10:15 |
: As a non-elite middle reliever, but as a middle reliever who gets strikeouts, he deserves an opportunity, but he doesn’t have the same long-term intrigue potential as someone younger or more electric |
10:15 |
: Which person is more likely to add value to an MLB team: A random former NFL player or a top collegiate softball player |
10:16 |
: Depends entirely on positions. I’d rather have a quarterback than a right fielder, but I’d rather have a catcher than a kicker or a lineman |
10:18 |
: Does AA see the 2018 season as an outlier for the Braves? Because his the Markakis signing looks like a move for a team that still sees itself in a rebuild. |
10:18 |
: Markakis was available for practically nothing. He’s okay and he plugs a hole. I think the Braves are still focused on other potential improvements. As with so many other teams, though, they’re just not yet comfortable with the current asking prices |
10:18 |
: All valuations of all players get kind of messed up when half-decent veterans are available for free |
10:19 |
: Will Gohara’s future be as a starter or a bullpen guy? |
10:19 |
: More likely bullpen guy |
10:19 |
: What happens first? JT Realmuto is traded or Harper and Machado both sign. |
10:19 |
: I think Realmuto trade |
10:20 |
: Do you think the Rays will top off their offseason with a RP acquisition, and if so will it be by trade or free agency, and which would be your favourite targets? |
10:21 |
: I continue to want to see them get Leclerc, but there’s no indication they’re in actual talks. If they do anything, it would be for a more significant name, because their 40-man is stuffed |
10:22 |
: How many non-playoff teams could become playoff teams by spending $100m in free agency today? |
10:22 |
: If you mean $100 million overall, not that many, because $100 million doesn’t get you close to Harper or Machado |
10:24 |
: It might get you, what, Marwin Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel? Craig Kimbrel and one of Gonzalez/Keuchel? Not nothing, but not an enormous boost |
10:26 |
: Hey jeff. What kind of return would the nats look for Eaton, should they get bryce? |
10:27 |
: If the Nationals were to sign Harper and trade Eaton, I’d look to move him to the Indians for some kind of optionable pitching help |
10:28 |
: Now, the Indians’ organizational pitching has been thinned, so that might not actually be a great match. But it’s worth finding out |
10:29 |
: What do you expect from Anthony Desclafani this year? He had tons of hype, then got hurt, then was so so last year, but had a decent 2h. |
10:30 |
: It’s hard for me to trust him, because of the UCL problem that cost him all of 2017. He also needs something that works better against left-handed hitters. I see him as a No. 3/4 right now who I also wouldn’t count on to make more than 20 starts. It’s a good thing the Reds have Mahle/Reed in the system |
10:31 |
: best remaining one-year contract possibilities? |
10:31 |
: It’s not a great list, Ginny |
10:31 |
: How big a fan are you of Martin Maldonado? |
10:32 |
: Mike Moustakas again. Adam Jones? Matt Davidson would be fun as a two-way player. Greg Holland, Ryan Madson, possibly Ervin Santana, Clay Buchholz… |
10:32 |
: How good would Ichiro have to be in the opening series to get a look at being a part of the team for the rest of the season? It’s not like the Mariners are contending in 2019 anyway |
10:33 |
: It’s not going to happen. Having Ichiro around as a backup is just too much effort for too little reward |
10:33 |
: With all the talk of expansion, are there any current markets that could support another team? |
10:34 |
: Portland could support the Rays better than Tampa Bay does |
10:34 |
: Not that I’m blaming Tampa Bay. It’s just reality |
10:34 |
: Besides Manny and Harper, which high profile FA (Keuchel etc.) signs with a surprise team? |
10:35 |
: I guess Kimbrel? I’ve just kind of assumed he’ll return to the Red Sox eventually, but if they’re really not going to do that, then I’m flummoxed |
10:36 |
: If the league scrapped the current postseason format tomorrow and replaced it with a system where the best teams in each league played each other in a 15-game World Series, how would the market for top free agents change? |
10:37 |
: It would probably be reduced, because there would be far lesser potential to make postseason revenue |
10:37 |
: Opinions on Jeff McNeil being officially unofficially put in the outfield? |
10:37 |
: There’s nowhere for him to regularly play. Their outfield already has Conforto, Nimmo, Lagares, and Broxton, to say nothing of Cespedes |
10:38 |
: It’s the CainYelich anniversary in Milwaukee. Would Cain sign for more or less than 5/80 if he was a FA this year? (Assume he somehow didn’t age) |
10:38 |
: I think he’d get something very similar. Pollock just got 5/60 as a lesser defender |
10:39 |
: Cain might get up to 5/90 after the season he had |
10:41 |
: What’s your response to Craig’s article on the Padres’ finances? |
10:41 |
: Am I supposed to have one? |
10:42 |
: The thing that doesn’t fit is the Hosmer signing. It still just makes zero sense given everything the Padres tried to lay out |
10:42 |
: But on the plus side, the Padres have basically promised now that they’re going to spend, and they’re going to spend soon. There’s no going back without just pissing everybody off |
10:43 |
: Seems like the market for Harper and Machado is drying up as the Dodgers are not likely to make a move. How much does Dodgers signing of Pollock cost either one of bargaining power? |
10:44 |
: It doesn’t help, although if I were Boras I’d be trying to leak the idea that maybe the Dodgers will trade Pederson *and* Verdugo |
10:44 |
: And then, voila, there’s a place for Harper to play! |
10:45 |
: What are the changes Fletcher ends up being an elite level 2B (2+ dWAR) next year? |
10:45 |
: Incredibly high bar to clear. 5% |
10:46 |
: But I kind of love the idea of having Fletcher/Simmons/Cozart in the same infield |
10:48 |
: If you’re San Diego, would you trade for David Bote to play 3B or go with the hometown SDSU product, Ty France? In other words, is Bote that much better than France? |
10:48 |
: Given the option, I’d trade for Bote and stash France in Triple-A. If France goes nuts or if Bote disappoints, then you make another change |
10:48 |
: Bote is a pretty good major-league player right now |
10:50 |
: The Mets and Reds both seem to be somewhat going for it this year in good divisions. Going into the next few seasons which fans should be more optimistic all things considered? |
10:50 |
: Right now I like the Mets a little more for 2019, but I like the Reds a little more for, say, 2019-2022 |
10:50 |
: Would expansion of the playoff format be a viable way to increase the demand for free agents? |
10:50 |
: Only a little bit |
10:52 |
: How come we don’t see many trades in MLB where teams send prospects to dump large contracts? If the tigers offered the rangers cabrera and mize for practically nothing in return, would the rangers do it? |
10:53 |
: Miguel Cabrera has a full no-trade, and over the next five years he’s due $162 million |
10:53 |
: He’s 36 years old and he’s not becoming *less* injury-prone |
10:54 |
: Cabrera’s contract is so far underwater you wouldn’t believe how many prospects you’d have to package to make it worth it |
10:55 |
: Trades like this do happen occasionally, where a team accepts a bad contract in order to get a young player on the side. But those contracts are nowhere close to the current Cabrera terms |
10:57 |
: Moreno doesn’t like Boras, but has handed out big money to Lozano client. Any chance he will or has tried tugging at Moreno’s heart and purse strings to get Machado signed by the Angels? I don’t buy the budget argument seeing as Pujols made 0 sense at the time he was signed seeing as they already had Trumbo and K. Morales on the team |
10:57 |
: I don’t think it’s going to happen, or likely to happen, since the Angels haven’t yet cleared $170 million in payroll, and Machado would take them up to $200 million |
10:58 |
: There’s also some conversation to be had over whether signing Machado to those terms would make keeping Trout more or less likely |
10:59 |
: What I am waiting for is for the Angels to relent and just sign Kimbrel already |
10:59 |
: does WAR factor in when a player is primarily a platooner? In theory, it should suppress their value if they’re only used in platoon advantage |
11:00 |
: WAR doesn’t account properly for platoons, so someone like, say, Joc Pederson gets overrated if you try to calculate WAR/600 |
11:00 |
: Pretty much all the playing time Pederson hasn’t been getting has been playing time where he’d be next to worthless |
11:01 |
: Any thoughts on the next ’27 Yankees? |
11:01 |
: Not sure who’ll still be there in eight years |
11:01 |
: What are the odds Forrest Whitley is pitching for Houston before the all star break? |
11:01 |
: 60% |
11:02 |
: I know the Sox have lots of pending FAs they need to sign, but at this point and this cost, don’t you think they could be the “mystery” team in on Machado/Harper? |
11:02 |
: No |
11:02 |
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-opportunity-in-front-of-the-reds/ you briefly discussed the unusual NL Central projections for 2019, particularly the low projection for the Brewers. What is leading to the Brewers being significantly underrated by the projections over the past couple of seasons and now (probably) again this season? You mentioned defense and bullpen in the article, but why are those being underrated? : In this article |
11:03 |
: I think our defensive projections are probably somewhat over-regressed, and I think we also don’t have a great way of factoring in when a bullpen will be leaned on especially heavily. The way our depth charts work, every team’s rotation and bullpen are handled in similar ways, even though we know that’s not how all teams behave. It doesn’t make a huge difference for most teams, but for the exceptional teams like the Brewers or Rays, it can get weird |
11:04 |
: The Brewers, in other words, are being underrated by some number of wins for the same reasons the Royals were underrated when they were good |
11:04 |
: The Royals have so much speed … is there any creative way to use it? Anything creative like how the Rays played to their pitchers with the opener? |
11:05 |
: Really really aggressive pinch-running |
11:05 |
: The Royals should just try to run as often as possible. Doesn’t even matter if you run into outs. Just create chaos. That’s the upside |
11:05 |
: As a Phillies fan, does Odubel get pushed out IF we sign Harper? |
11:06 |
: Not all the way out. I’d still rather have Herrera than, say, Williams |
11:06 |
: How surprised are you that that Machado and Harper are still both on the market this long? |
11:06 |
: Harper isn’t surprising at all |
11:06 |
: Machado is somewhat surprising |
11:08 |
: Giants fans starting to panic over “lack” of moves made this offseason. Can you help them relax by speculating what might still happen for us? Likeliness of finding a partner for Longo’s contract? Longo/Watson to Angels for Cozart/Calhoun? |
11:08 |
: Angels don’t want that long-term money on the books |
11:08 |
: They want the books as free and open as possible for when they get to talking to Trout |
11:09 |
: The Giants are not in a great spot, and just for PR reasons, it wouldn’t be a great look for a new GM to come in and immediately tear down. Maybe a reliever or infielder will be traded, but the real work is likely to begin in July, if/when the Giants are out of contention |
11:10 |
: How do the Rockies think they can compete with the Dodgers and all the NL Wild Card competition making big moves, while they’re likely a worse team than last year? |
11:11 |
: They just won 91 games and went to the playoffs. They have Murphy now, and more Dahl, and so on |
11:11 |
: These are not good reasons. The Rockies have not kept up. But they can just point to last season as having been a surprise success |
11:12 |
: I feel like the DJ LeMahieu signing means a lot more Stanton in LF, Andujar at DH, and LeMahieu at 3B. Do you think this is a fair assessment? Thanks! |
11:12 |
: At the moment, yes |
11:13 |
: Have you read the Forbes article about the Reds? do you admire them for “going for it”, like the brewers last year> |
11:13 |
: The Reds haven’t added anyone close to as good as Christian Yelich, and they haven’t added anyone close to as good as Lorenzo Cain |
11:13 |
: I like to see the Reds active, but there’s not actually that much overlap |
11:14 |
: The Union Tribune article said the Padres were “poised to spend, perhaps as soon as this year.” |
11:14 |
: We’re waiting |
11:14 |
: All right, I need to get rolling |
11:15 |
: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days |
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
“The Royals should just try to run as often as possible. Doesn’t even matter if you run into outs. Just create chaos.” I would go to multiple games of theirs just for the pure enjoyment; not even a fan of theirs.