Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/25/19

January 25, 2019

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04	Friend: Opinions on Joe Ross vs Erick Fedde? Expectations?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I know it’s a small sample and I know Ross was coming back from surgery, but over all appearances last year he only struck out 26 batters in 42.1 innings

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: 7 in 16 in the majors

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Real potential there for Ross to be a quality 4/5 but at the moment I’m a bigger fan of Fedde

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Unsurprisingly, my view is that the Nationals will end up needing both of them

9:07	Frank: Do you think Dave is advocating for Harper or Machado?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: No question in my mind that Dave would love to sign Machado. There is no single better fit in the world for the Padres than Machado. He is exactly what they need. But nothing about that Union-Tribune article the other day suggested the Padres were about to spend big for 2019

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: So Dave can want what he wants, but it wouldn’t be his call

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Hosmer is such a catastrophe. Just imagine where the Padres could be if they hadn’t signed him

9:10	Ron: Left-handed pitchers are baseball’s recipient demographic of affirmative action

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: It always amuses me when teams talk about the importance of balance. And look, I get it, you like to give different hitters different looks and different angles, but no one ever won a World Series because they had X number of left-handed pitchers

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The 2004 Red Sox had Alan Embree

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: That’s it. That was their southpaw

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: The 2017 Astros only had Dallas Keuchel and Tony Sipp

9:14	Drew: Aren’t the Yankees basically the same team they were last year but with the addition of Paxton? I know they have been the most active but I don’t think they have improved at all that much. Agreed?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: James Paxton is very good, DJ LeMahieu is better than Neil Walker, and last year’s Yankees won 100 games

9:15	mmddyyyy: Which team’s window will shut the hardest when a specific player leaves?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s Trout and the Angels, if we come to that point

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: There’s just no one on his level

9:17	Drew: Is Nick Castellanos actually good?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a very productive DH

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: You don’t want to have to play him anywhere

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: He’s basically fast-fashion J.D. Martinez. He’s the Martinez knock-off you get at H&M

9:20	Dodger Depth TM: Would an offer of Kiebert Ruiz, Dustin May, and Gavin Lux be sufficient for the Marlins to move Realmuto? Whose getting the hose in this hypothetical?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: At first glance, that doesn’t seem like a bad deal for either side. Worth noting it was exactly one year ago today the Marlins finally traded Christian Yelich

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Russell Martin goes the other way since the Marlins would need a catcher, but whatever. If they insist on Barnes, then the Dodgers ask for something else, like, I don’t know, Neidert?

9:24	Tugs: Given a starting 4 of Nelson, Chacin, Anderson, and Davies, who among Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes has the best shot at the #5 spot?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’d guess Woodruff out of camp, but they’re definitely going to need and use all of them, and more

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Peralta’s going to need to do something to combat lefties. That’ll be his 2019 project. Burnes has a chance to seize a rotation spot for the long haul but he’ll need to be eased in

9:26	hooha: with Pollock going to the Dodgers, can the Phillies and Harper finally agree to a contract already?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to sign Harper or Machado. It’s a near-guarantee. But it’s only half up to them

9:28	pelkey: the A’s could use julio teheran, right? that shouldn’t cost them too much, and he would at least be…something?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Teheran would slightly lift the A’s floor, I suppose, but he’s not very good. The A’s don’t need him, specifically, because he’s a No. 4 or 5 starter. Their rotation looks a lot more interesting if/when Luzardo and Puk are in the fold

9:30	Fartrell Cluggins: Do you see a change of scenery as enough for Sonny Gray to return to his A’s level of production?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Higher ERA, but similar peripherals. He’ll be a No. 2 more than he’ll be an ace. Hoping that Castillo takes over as their ace

9:33	Dodger Depth TM: Advances in player development over recent years seems to have anecdotally increased the hit rate of prospects. With that in mind, how much do you believe first round picks have increased in value from first round picks 20 years ago?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Just for fun, looking at the first round from 2013, 66% of drafted players have reached the majors. Looking at the first round from 1993, 66% of drafted players reached the majors

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Looking at the first round from 2003, 72% of drafted players reached the majors

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: This is obviously not close to rigorous enough, but I don’t think the value of a first-rounder has gone up *that* much. For one thing, there are only so many major-league jobs to go around. And for another, it’s possible, if not probable, that advances in player development have most benefited the guys who *aren’t* blue-chippers

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: To me, anecdotally, this has become the era of pop-up prospects and overachievers. Again, that’s unproven, but that’s my sense

9:37	Jason N: Between Boras and national writers, lots of different and complicated ideas for fixing the players comp system. More complicated usually = more unintended consequences. What’s wrong with simple: increase the cap and institute a meaningful salary floor?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: A salary floor still might just incentivize small-budget operations to load up on bad contracts

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Both of your ideas are useful, but I don’t think they address the real issue — you’d get more money spent on free agents, out of necessity, but you still wouldn’t be paying players for when they’re actually at their best

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Salary minimums need to be higher, and either free agency should arrive sooner, or there need to be service-time-linked mandatory escalations

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: It still doesn’t make a lot of sense to have the biggest salaries going to players 30+. Money needs to be shifted toward the front. Do that and some of the veterans would benefit anyway as a consequence

9:42	Vegan Man!: Do you think Stanton can/will cut his k% to something closer to his 2017 numbers (24%), or was 2017 an outlier for him? Thanks!

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: 2017 sure looks like the outlier in his record

9:42	Bork: Hello friend

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:42	radermecherbob@ymail.com: Jeff,whats your opinion on Harold Baines induction.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: It’s on the negative side of indifferent

9:43	Murmur: Even in this free agent market, it seems like the buzz around Marwin Gonzalez is really light. Why is that? It seems like just about every team could use him.

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: There was a ton of Marwin buzz earlier on, that simply died down. I’m going to guess his agent held out for a very large commitment, and so teams just moved on from there. We’ve seen a number of guys get signed on the idea that they’ll become multi-positional players, like Lowrie, LeMahieu, etc

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: But also, keep in mind, according to public rumors there are two teams on Machado and either one or two teams on Harper. Neither can be true. There just might not be that many leaks

9:45

WILLLLLLLSON: I thought your article on the Reds was pretty good. I agree that the Brewers may step back unless they acquire some more pitching. The Reds front office said they still aren’t done making moves and that anyone else they acquire will have term. What do you see them doing? What would you do?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think the obvious thing that’s left is for them to get a center fielder. The guy I love for them is JBJ, but it’s also entirely possible they determine that Senzel can cut it out of camp

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Like everyone else, they could lengthen their bullpen, but maybe Stephenson or Romano really take to the role and tear it up

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: One minor downside of the Reds’ additions: I was hoping to see more of Cody Reed this season. I still like him

9:48	Matt : Does the AJ Pollack signing indicate more moves are coming for the Dodgers?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: More moves are definitely coming for the Dodgers

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Pederson or Verdugo are almost out of a job now. And the Realmuto rumors are legit

9:49	Murmur: Which 3 teams would be hurt most of the league changed its DL rules to what’s apparently been proposed?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have great data on this. Moving back to a 15-day DL from 10 isn’t that significant of a jump. It feels like the Dodgers have abused the DL the most, so I guess they’d find themselves especially inconvenienced?

9:52	Bob Pollard: How much stock do you think teams put into how a free agent hits in their stadium? For example, while it’s a small sample size, Pollock hasn’t hit well at Dodger Stadium. They signed him, so they probably don’t care, but is it any consideration? Do you think he’ll be fine there?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Since 2012, AJ Pollock has a .653 OPS in Dodger Stadium. Since 2012, Dodgers pitchers have allowed a .646 OPS in Dodger Stadium. Pollock, then, has been a little better than average, adjusting for competition

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I think teams definitely consider how a hitter’s profile matches up with a ballpark, but at this point I doubt they think that much about someone’s actual results in the same ballpark, because those numbers are subject to matchup concerns and small samples

9:56	Rod Becks Horseshoe Moustache: Melancon for Chatwood…does that make any sense for both teams

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Similar money, and while Melancon has a full no-trade it probably wouldn’t be an obstacle. I can see why the Giants might be interested, but given Melancon’s injury concerns, I’m not sure the Cubs would bite

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather just give Chatwood a couple months of regular work in the bullpen and see how that goes

9:59	Airport Banana: Most likely landing spot for Moustakas?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Woof

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Torn between the Brewers and the Padres. Brewers would have to move Shaw to second, and I doubt the Padres like Moustakas that much, but he can’t be that expensive and the Padres will need a 3B eventually