2019 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Batters
Even before the end-of-season collapse, Philadelphia’s offense wasn’t its strong suit. The team finished 11th in runs scored, 10th in on-base percentage, and 11th in slugging percentage, and didn’t put up a team OPS of .730 over any individual month of the season. Rhys Hoskins was the only member of the offense who was a real significant plus for the team — if we’re not counting the brief stint of Wilson Ramos — but he turned out to be quite dreadful defensively. It wasn’t for lack of effort, but -11 runs in the outfield by UZR and an almost amusing -24 by BIS was far from the adequate-big-guy-in-outfield the team crossed their fingers for, being more akin to Todd Hundley if forced to wear a pegleg. Fitting the disappointing Carlos Santana’s bat in the lineup wasn’t worth that defensive hit.
Hoskins’s projection looks more normal back at first base, and the Phillies’ big acquisitions so far this offseason — the trade for Jean Segura and the signing of Andrew McCutchen — should give the team the legitimate above-average performances they sorely needed without forcing anyone to play grossly out-of-position. But the team’s still missing, as Jack Donaghy said on 30 Rock, the third kind of heat. Unlikes the Braves, who have graduated Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies to the majors in the last couple of years, the Phillies can only get such a boost with the power of splashing cash. Either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado slide into the lineup quite nicely. But the uncertainty of signing them (other teams can make bids, after all; you can’t just go to the Bryce Harper Store and pick up as many as you can pay $350 million) made McCutchen and Segura crucial additions.
Pitchers
Outside of Aaron Nola, a pitcher with whom ZiPS has had a long obsession, ZiPS just isn’t that excited about the team’s rotation. It’s solidly average, yes, but a question mark surrounds most of the non-Nola starting talent. Jake Arrieta in particular takes a big hit in the projections, with ZiPS seeing his nearly 20% decline in strikeouts as a troubling sign. Which, historically, it has been.
On the other hand, the bullpen, despite the lack of eye-popping names a team like the Yankees possesses, projects as a deep, competent group with a lot of extra parts.
Bench and Prospects
In the sense of 2019 reinforcements, among the hitters, ZiPS only sees 2017 first-rounded Adam Haseley as having the potential to contribute to the parent team. Haseley projects as a worse offensive player than Dylan Cozens, but also has more defensive versatility, which might be important for a team not blessed with terribly exciting outfield depth. Speaking of that depth, I can’t blame the computer for not knowing what to make of Aaron Altherr at this point. I’m not sure what to make of him either, what with his Ryan Raburn-esque pattern of alternating overachieving and underachieving seasons. ZiPS has all but written off Mickey Moniak as a prospect.
Sixto Sanchez just missed getting a projection this year due to my dislike of projecting pitchers with no experience in the high minors, but he’s probably still the best bet on the roster for a nice surprise, and I may need to project him by midseason. ZiPS has a cyber-crush on former MLB pitcher’s son Luke Leftwich and while the team’s deep set of relievers means he’ll face an uphill battle for a roster spot, he’s at least a name that other teams should be paying attention to if they need to fill out the back of their bullpens.
One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.
Player | B | Age | PO | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rhys Hoskins | R | 26 | 1B | 150 | 546 | 92 | 137 | 30 | 2 | 34 | 113 | 79 | 155 | 5 | 3 |
Andrew McCutchen | R | 32 | RF | 145 | 533 | 82 | 136 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 80 | 82 | 144 | 11 | 7 |
Jean Segura | R | 29 | SS | 147 | 600 | 86 | 174 | 30 | 4 | 14 | 61 | 31 | 80 | 22 | 10 |
Odubel Herrera | L | 27 | CF | 155 | 568 | 72 | 150 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 66 | 42 | 137 | 11 | 4 |
Cesar Hernandez | B | 29 | 2B | 155 | 566 | 82 | 148 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 79 | 133 | 19 | 7 |
Asdrubal Cabrera | B | 33 | SS | 139 | 503 | 65 | 135 | 30 | 2 | 21 | 70 | 40 | 107 | 2 | 1 |
Nick Williams | L | 25 | RF | 143 | 500 | 66 | 128 | 23 | 5 | 21 | 75 | 32 | 151 | 5 | 4 |
Maikel Franco | R | 26 | 3B | 141 | 511 | 61 | 133 | 26 | 1 | 23 | 86 | 36 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
Mitch Walding | L | 26 | 3B | 122 | 409 | 54 | 80 | 15 | 3 | 17 | 54 | 55 | 193 | 2 | 2 |
Adam Haseley | L | 23 | CF | 117 | 464 | 56 | 117 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 30 | 96 | 6 | 5 |
Scott Kingery | R | 25 | SS | 140 | 509 | 62 | 121 | 25 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 29 | 134 | 15 | 4 |
Damek Tomscha | R | 27 | 3B | 116 | 424 | 49 | 102 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 28 | 93 | 2 | 1 |
Aaron Altherr | R | 28 | RF | 114 | 362 | 48 | 79 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 42 | 127 | 7 | 3 |
Andrew Knapp | B | 27 | C | 91 | 287 | 35 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 35 | 108 | 1 | 1 |
Jose Bautista | R | 38 | RF | 124 | 395 | 62 | 81 | 19 | 0 | 16 | 54 | 67 | 128 | 4 | 3 |
Jorge Alfaro | R | 26 | C | 106 | 385 | 39 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 18 | 151 | 2 | 1 |
Trevor Plouffe | R | 33 | 3B | 92 | 305 | 38 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 35 | 95 | 2 | 1 |
Dean Anna | L | 32 | 2B | 115 | 413 | 49 | 98 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 41 | 67 | 5 | 4 |
Dylan Cozens | L | 25 | RF | 122 | 422 | 59 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 23 | 72 | 48 | 206 | 10 | 4 |
Will Middlebrooks | R | 30 | 3B | 80 | 276 | 31 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 38 | 15 | 91 | 1 | 1 |
Deivi Grullon | R | 23 | C | 98 | 365 | 40 | 85 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 17 | 107 | 0 | 0 |
Jesmuel Valentin | B | 25 | 2B | 98 | 301 | 36 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 30 | 78 | 3 | 1 |
Roman Quinn | R | 26 | CF | 76 | 274 | 32 | 65 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 80 | 21 | 7 |
Collin Cowgill | R | 33 | CF | 94 | 292 | 34 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 24 | 89 | 3 | 2 |
Matt McBride | R | 34 | C | 69 | 231 | 29 | 52 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 18 | 55 | 1 | 1 |
Logan Moore | L | 28 | C | 68 | 220 | 22 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Austin Listi | R | 25 | 1B | 116 | 419 | 52 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 42 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
Danny Ortiz | L | 29 | LF | 118 | 410 | 46 | 92 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 57 | 19 | 112 | 2 | 2 |
Phil Gosselin | R | 30 | 2B | 112 | 302 | 34 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 75 | 1 | 2 |
Ryan Goins | L | 31 | SS | 108 | 312 | 31 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 23 | 84 | 3 | 2 |
Heiker Meneses | R | 27 | 2B | 74 | 241 | 21 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 80 | 4 | 4 |
Jiandido Tromp | R | 25 | RF | 113 | 404 | 43 | 83 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 28 | 145 | 6 | 5 |
Arquimedes Gamboa | B | 21 | SS | 114 | 448 | 45 | 86 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 41 | 136 | 6 | 3 |
Jose Pujols | R | 23 | RF | 119 | 439 | 49 | 87 | 13 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 36 | 211 | 2 | 3 |
Cornelius Randolph | L | 22 | LF | 124 | 448 | 48 | 98 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 42 | 137 | 3 | 4 |
Jan Hernandez | R | 24 | RF | 103 | 363 | 41 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 26 | 167 | 4 | 3 |
Mickey Moniak | L | 21 | CF | 125 | 476 | 45 | 102 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 23 | 143 | 6 | 8 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rhys Hoskins | .251 | .351 | .500 | 125 | .249 | .289 | 6.3 | 2 | 3.4 | Eric Karros |
Andrew McCutchen | .255 | .360 | .454 | 117 | .199 | .305 | 5.9 | -1 | 2.7 | Tim Salmon |
Jean Segura | .290 | .331 | .423 | 101 | .133 | .316 | 5.4 | -4 | 2.5 | Julio Franco |
Odubel Herrera | .264 | .321 | .428 | 99 | .164 | .318 | 5.1 | 2 | 2.4 | Terrence Long |
Cesar Hernandez | .261 | .355 | .375 | 97 | .113 | .325 | 5.0 | -3 | 2.2 | Jose Offerman |
Asdrubal Cabrera | .268 | .325 | .461 | 108 | .193 | .304 | 5.5 | -12 | 1.7 | Rich Aurilia |
Nick Williams | .256 | .308 | .448 | 100 | .192 | .326 | 4.9 | 2 | 1.3 | Chris James |
Maikel Franco | .260 | .309 | .450 | 101 | .190 | .274 | 5.1 | -7 | 1.2 | Joe Crede |
Mitch Walding | .196 | .297 | .372 | 78 | .176 | .317 | 3.7 | 4 | 0.9 | Tom Quinlan |
Adam Haseley | .252 | .304 | .373 | 81 | .121 | .299 | 4.0 | 1 | 0.7 | Victor Mata |
Scott Kingery | .238 | .283 | .373 | 74 | .136 | .300 | 3.9 | 0 | 0.7 | Rafael Ramirez |
Damek Tomscha | .241 | .301 | .368 | 79 | .127 | .284 | 3.9 | 2 | 0.7 | Brennan King |
Aaron Altherr | .218 | .308 | .403 | 89 | .185 | .294 | 4.3 | 2 | 0.7 | Brian Banks |
Andrew Knapp | .216 | .304 | .359 | 77 | .143 | .316 | 3.7 | -1 | 0.5 | Tom Wilson |
Jose Bautista | .205 | .328 | .375 | 89 | .170 | .259 | 4.1 | -2 | 0.4 | Greg Vaughn |
Jorge Alfaro | .226 | .279 | .364 | 71 | .138 | .341 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.4 | Joel Skinner |
Trevor Plouffe | .216 | .299 | .387 | 82 | .170 | .273 | 4.0 | -2 | 0.3 | Reed Secrist |
Dean Anna | .237 | .315 | .312 | 70 | .075 | .277 | 3.4 | 2 | 0.3 | Don Blasingame |
Dylan Cozens | .201 | .284 | .415 | 85 | .213 | .321 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.2 | Shanie Dugas |
Will Middlebrooks | .214 | .254 | .409 | 74 | .196 | .267 | 3.5 | 2 | 0.2 | Caonabo Cosme |
Deivi Grullon | .233 | .268 | .411 | 79 | .178 | .285 | 3.9 | -5 | 0.2 | Gilberto Reyes |
Jesmuel Valentin | .223 | .297 | .346 | 72 | .123 | .281 | 3.6 | 0 | 0.2 | Doug Saunders |
Roman Quinn | .237 | .300 | .365 | 78 | .128 | .317 | 4.1 | -3 | 0.1 | Carlos Gomez |
Collin Cowgill | .202 | .268 | .329 | 59 | .127 | .262 | 2.9 | 4 | -0.1 | Alan Cockrell |
Matt McBride | .225 | .285 | .411 | 84 | .186 | .257 | 4.0 | -7 | -0.1 | Mike Macfarlane |
Logan Moore | .186 | .261 | .295 | 49 | .109 | .263 | 2.6 | 3 | -0.2 | Tom Nieto |
Austin Listi | .222 | .303 | .375 | 81 | .153 | .283 | 4.0 | -2 | -0.3 | Julio Vinas |
Danny Ortiz | .224 | .260 | .388 | 71 | .163 | .275 | 3.5 | 4 | -0.4 | Ray Ortiz |
Phil Gosselin | .225 | .280 | .334 | 64 | .109 | .284 | 3.2 | -2 | -0.5 | Rodney Nye |
Ryan Goins | .218 | .269 | .324 | 58 | .106 | .283 | 3.0 | -2 | -0.5 | Kevin Baez |
Heiker Meneses | .195 | .247 | .241 | 32 | .046 | .288 | 1.8 | 3 | -1.0 | Luke Sable |
Jiandido Tromp | .205 | .261 | .347 | 61 | .141 | .290 | 3.0 | 1 | -1.1 | Richie Robnett |
Arquimedes Gamboa | .192 | .261 | .286 | 47 | .094 | .259 | 2.5 | -2 | -1.3 | Carlos Mendoza |
Jose Pujols | .198 | .259 | .358 | 63 | .159 | .332 | 3.0 | -2 | -1.3 | Alan Cockrell |
Cornelius Randolph | .219 | .288 | .328 | 65 | .109 | .295 | 3.2 | -4 | -1.4 | Ntema Ndungidi |
Jan Hernandez | .190 | .251 | .347 | 59 | .157 | .302 | 2.9 | -5 | -1.6 | Victor Ferrante |
Mickey Moniak | .214 | .251 | .328 | 54 | .113 | .289 | 2.6 | -4 | -1.8 | Dominick Ambrosini |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | R | 26 | 14 | 9 | 3.19 | 32 | 32 | 192.0 | 170 | 68 | 19 | 48 | 197 |
Nick Pivetta | R | 26 | 10 | 11 | 4.50 | 31 | 31 | 158.0 | 157 | 79 | 25 | 52 | 168 |
Jake Arrieta | R | 33 | 10 | 10 | 4.32 | 28 | 28 | 152.0 | 146 | 73 | 24 | 54 | 135 |
Vince Velasquez | R | 27 | 9 | 9 | 4.39 | 28 | 27 | 133.3 | 129 | 65 | 20 | 50 | 146 |
Seranthony Dominguez | R | 24 | 7 | 4 | 3.03 | 63 | 0 | 65.3 | 49 | 22 | 5 | 29 | 86 |
Zach Eflin | R | 25 | 10 | 10 | 4.47 | 27 | 26 | 141.0 | 146 | 70 | 21 | 38 | 117 |
Enyel De Los Santos | R | 23 | 8 | 9 | 4.73 | 30 | 25 | 142.7 | 145 | 75 | 22 | 59 | 124 |
Jerad Eickhoff | R | 28 | 7 | 7 | 4.69 | 23 | 22 | 121.0 | 126 | 63 | 20 | 41 | 111 |
Ranger Suarez | L | 23 | 6 | 6 | 4.61 | 26 | 25 | 130.7 | 137 | 67 | 16 | 51 | 97 |
Austin Davis | L | 26 | 4 | 3 | 3.50 | 58 | 0 | 72.0 | 65 | 28 | 7 | 26 | 77 |
Jose Alvarez | L | 30 | 4 | 3 | 3.66 | 71 | 0 | 59.0 | 55 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 57 |
Juan Nicasio | R | 32 | 4 | 3 | 3.46 | 55 | 0 | 54.7 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 17 | 63 |
Hector Neris | R | 30 | 4 | 3 | 3.61 | 69 | 0 | 67.3 | 56 | 27 | 10 | 26 | 90 |
Luke Leftwich | R | 25 | 3 | 3 | 3.58 | 49 | 0 | 65.3 | 59 | 26 | 5 | 30 | 68 |
Tommy Hunter | R | 32 | 4 | 3 | 3.81 | 58 | 0 | 56.7 | 56 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 45 |
James Pazos | L | 28 | 3 | 2 | 3.68 | 59 | 0 | 51.3 | 47 | 21 | 5 | 20 | 52 |
Pat Neshek | R | 38 | 3 | 2 | 3.41 | 45 | 0 | 37.0 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 35 |
Edubray Ramos | R | 26 | 4 | 3 | 3.77 | 63 | 0 | 59.7 | 56 | 25 | 6 | 21 | 60 |
Aaron Loup | L | 31 | 1 | 1 | 3.48 | 58 | 0 | 44.0 | 41 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 48 |
Luis Avilan | L | 29 | 2 | 2 | 3.67 | 67 | 0 | 49.0 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 20 | 53 |
Brandon Leibrandt | L | 26 | 5 | 6 | 4.74 | 22 | 17 | 89.3 | 95 | 47 | 12 | 33 | 69 |
Trevor Bettencourt | R | 24 | 3 | 2 | 3.71 | 31 | 0 | 43.7 | 41 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 44 |
Tyler Viza | R | 24 | 7 | 8 | 4.89 | 28 | 17 | 103.0 | 109 | 56 | 15 | 41 | 82 |
Adam Morgan | L | 29 | 1 | 1 | 4.01 | 67 | 0 | 49.3 | 47 | 22 | 5 | 22 | 50 |
Victor Arano | R | 24 | 2 | 2 | 4.13 | 62 | 0 | 61.0 | 59 | 28 | 9 | 20 | 59 |
JoJo Romero | L | 22 | 6 | 7 | 5.13 | 18 | 18 | 98.3 | 102 | 56 | 17 | 48 | 90 |
Cole Irvin | L | 25 | 8 | 10 | 5.23 | 24 | 23 | 134.3 | 151 | 78 | 23 | 47 | 91 |
Connor Seabold | R | 23 | 6 | 7 | 5.31 | 23 | 23 | 120.3 | 130 | 71 | 25 | 42 | 106 |
Pedro Beato | R | 32 | 5 | 5 | 4.68 | 58 | 0 | 59.7 | 60 | 31 | 9 | 24 | 51 |
Thomas Eshelman | R | 25 | 6 | 9 | 5.45 | 25 | 25 | 135.3 | 158 | 82 | 28 | 39 | 95 |
Adonis Medina | R | 22 | 6 | 8 | 5.26 | 22 | 21 | 106.0 | 112 | 62 | 18 | 51 | 95 |
Tyler Gilbert | L | 25 | 4 | 4 | 4.78 | 49 | 0 | 64.0 | 68 | 34 | 11 | 20 | 55 |
Drew Anderson | R | 25 | 5 | 8 | 5.45 | 23 | 20 | 104.0 | 115 | 63 | 20 | 41 | 83 |
Edgar Garcia | R | 22 | 4 | 5 | 5.27 | 45 | 5 | 68.3 | 70 | 40 | 12 | 36 | 67 |
Jeff Singer | L | 25 | 3 | 4 | 5.36 | 45 | 0 | 50.3 | 48 | 30 | 7 | 38 | 50 |
Yacksel Rios | R | 26 | 3 | 4 | 5.40 | 52 | 2 | 65.0 | 67 | 39 | 11 | 35 | 63 |
Kyle Dohy | L | 22 | 6 | 9 | 5.43 | 47 | 0 | 53.0 | 40 | 32 | 7 | 63 | 79 |
Seth McGarry | R | 25 | 3 | 4 | 5.46 | 46 | 0 | 61.0 | 60 | 37 | 8 | 47 | 56 |
Tom Windle | L | 27 | 4 | 6 | 5.79 | 47 | 0 | 51.3 | 54 | 33 | 10 | 32 | 47 |
Ranfi Casimiro | R | 26 | 5 | 9 | 6.43 | 32 | 11 | 85.3 | 99 | 61 | 19 | 43 | 65 |
Player | TBF | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | FIP | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | 787 | 9.23 | 2.25 | 0.89 | .292 | 132 | 76 | 3.23 | 4.5 | Tim Hudson |
Nick Pivetta | 679 | 9.57 | 2.96 | 1.42 | .308 | 97 | 104 | 4.18 | 1.8 | Dickie Noles |
Jake Arrieta | 652 | 7.99 | 3.20 | 1.42 | .282 | 97 | 103 | 4.63 | 1.7 | Andy Messersmith |
Vince Velasquez | 574 | 9.86 | 3.38 | 1.35 | .308 | 99 | 101 | 4.13 | 1.7 | Storm Davis |
Seranthony Dominguez | 275 | 11.85 | 3.99 | 0.69 | .293 | 143 | 70 | 3.07 | 1.6 | Tim Spooneybarger |
Zach Eflin | 602 | 7.47 | 2.43 | 1.34 | .297 | 94 | 106 | 4.34 | 1.4 | Larry Christenson |
Enyel De Los Santos | 629 | 7.82 | 3.72 | 1.39 | .295 | 92 | 109 | 4.80 | 1.2 | Al Nipper |
Jerad Eickhoff | 526 | 8.26 | 3.05 | 1.49 | .304 | 93 | 108 | 4.60 | 1.1 | Ed Wojna |
Ranger Suarez | 577 | 6.68 | 3.51 | 1.10 | .298 | 91 | 110 | 4.59 | 1.1 | Mike Miller |
Austin Davis | 305 | 9.63 | 3.25 | 0.88 | .302 | 120 | 83 | 3.48 | 1.0 | Ed Olwine |
Jose Alvarez | 253 | 8.69 | 3.51 | 0.76 | .301 | 119 | 84 | 3.59 | 0.9 | Harry Perkowski |
Juan Nicasio | 230 | 10.37 | 2.80 | 0.99 | .310 | 122 | 82 | 3.31 | 0.9 | Jay Howell |
Hector Neris | 284 | 12.03 | 3.48 | 1.34 | .299 | 117 | 86 | 3.74 | 0.9 | Juan Rincon |
Luke Leftwich | 284 | 9.37 | 4.13 | 0.69 | .303 | 117 | 85 | 3.58 | 0.9 | Turk Farrell |
Tommy Hunter | 238 | 7.15 | 2.22 | 0.95 | .292 | 114 | 88 | 3.79 | 0.8 | Dick Coffman |
James Pazos | 222 | 9.12 | 3.51 | 0.88 | .298 | 118 | 85 | 3.79 | 0.7 | Joe Klink |
Pat Neshek | 148 | 8.51 | 1.46 | 1.22 | .284 | 128 | 78 | 3.50 | 0.7 | Mike Timlin |
Edubray Ramos | 254 | 9.05 | 3.17 | 0.91 | .303 | 112 | 90 | 3.60 | 0.7 | Ehren Wassermann |
Aaron Loup | 192 | 9.82 | 3.48 | 0.82 | .314 | 125 | 80 | 3.65 | 0.7 | Randy Tomlin |
Luis Avilan | 210 | 9.73 | 3.67 | 0.92 | .300 | 115 | 87 | 3.66 | 0.6 | Tippy Martinez |
Brandon Leibrandt | 394 | 6.95 | 3.32 | 1.21 | .302 | 89 | 113 | 4.63 | 0.6 | Andy Hassler |
Trevor Bettencourt | 186 | 9.07 | 3.09 | 1.03 | .300 | 113 | 88 | 3.79 | 0.5 | Mark Worrell |
Tyler Viza | 457 | 7.17 | 3.58 | 1.31 | .300 | 86 | 116 | 4.82 | 0.5 | Dan Smith |
Adam Morgan | 214 | 9.12 | 4.01 | 0.91 | .307 | 105 | 95 | 3.78 | 0.5 | Tippy Martinez |
Victor Arano | 260 | 8.70 | 2.95 | 1.33 | .294 | 102 | 98 | 4.22 | 0.5 | Danny Graves |
JoJo Romero | 444 | 8.24 | 4.39 | 1.56 | .300 | 85 | 118 | 5.21 | 0.5 | Greg Kubes |
Cole Irvin | 598 | 6.10 | 3.15 | 1.54 | .298 | 83 | 120 | 5.25 | 0.5 | John O’Donoghue |
Connor Seabold | 531 | 7.93 | 3.14 | 1.87 | .299 | 82 | 122 | 5.31 | 0.3 | Chris Johnson |
Pedro Beato | 262 | 7.69 | 3.62 | 1.36 | .291 | 93 | 108 | 4.76 | 0.2 | Ed Klieman |
Thomas Eshelman | 599 | 6.32 | 2.59 | 1.86 | .302 | 80 | 126 | 5.46 | 0.1 | Nick Blackburn |
Adonis Medina | 479 | 8.07 | 4.33 | 1.53 | .304 | 80 | 125 | 5.18 | 0.1 | Jeff Fulchino |
Tyler Gilbert | 279 | 7.73 | 2.81 | 1.55 | .302 | 88 | 114 | 4.79 | 0.0 | Chris Key |
Drew Anderson | 466 | 7.18 | 3.55 | 1.73 | .301 | 77 | 130 | 5.41 | -0.1 | Jon Perlman |
Edgar Garcia | 310 | 8.82 | 4.74 | 1.58 | .304 | 80 | 125 | 5.23 | -0.2 | Stan Bahnsen |
Jeff Singer | 237 | 8.94 | 6.79 | 1.25 | .295 | 78 | 128 | 5.41 | -0.3 | Philip Barzilla |
Yacksel Rios | 297 | 8.72 | 4.85 | 1.52 | .304 | 78 | 128 | 5.21 | -0.3 | Sean Green |
Kyle Dohy | 263 | 13.42 | 10.70 | 1.19 | .300 | 77 | 129 | 5.68 | -0.4 | Tyler Johnson |
Seth McGarry | 290 | 8.26 | 6.93 | 1.18 | .297 | 77 | 130 | 5.53 | -0.5 | Lloyd Allen |
Tom Windle | 239 | 8.24 | 5.61 | 1.75 | .299 | 73 | 138 | 5.90 | -0.6 | Dean Brueggemann |
Ranfi Casimiro | 397 | 6.86 | 4.54 | 2.00 | .302 | 65 | 153 | 6.21 | -1.1 | Mark Woodyard |
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.
Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I’m very much of the opinion that this team is good, but probably the fourth-best team in the division behind the Nationals, Braves, and Mets.
That said, if they sign Harper or Moustakas/Keuchel I think they’ll be in pretty good shape. The computer seems a little down on Pivetta, Velazquez, and Eflin. They might regress collectively, but having all of them regress that much collectively seems…unlikely? Although it looks like some of the low WAR totals are because the playing time projections are a little lower than I would expect.
Agree on Pivetta, Velazquez and Eflin. I like all 3, and while zips likes their strikeout ability, those ERAs are not good. I see they are the result of giving up too many homers.
Pitching in Citizens Bank Park has a way of doing that to pitchers. Maybe they shouldn’t pitch in Philly. That would probably help their HR tendencies.
The question of the value of computer projections raises doubts again. For more years than I care to remember the litany was that improvement could be expected from these young pitchers as they gain more experience in the major leagues. It appears that ZIPS questions that long standing belief, which actually seems to be valid a fairly high percentage of the time. As you say, to have all three take a step back seems…..unlikely.