2019 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

Even before the end-of-season collapse, Philadelphia’s offense wasn’t its strong suit. The team finished 11th in runs scored, 10th in on-base percentage, and 11th in slugging percentage, and didn’t put up a team OPS of .730 over any individual month of the season. Rhys Hoskins was the only member of the offense who was a real significant plus for the team — if we’re not counting the brief stint of Wilson Ramos — but he turned out to be quite dreadful defensively. It wasn’t for lack of effort, but -11 runs in the outfield by UZR and an almost amusing -24 by BIS was far from the adequate-big-guy-in-outfield the team crossed their fingers for, being more akin to Todd Hundley if forced to wear a pegleg. Fitting the disappointing Carlos Santana’s bat in the lineup wasn’t worth that defensive hit.

Hoskins’s projection looks more normal back at first base, and the Phillies’ big acquisitions so far this offseason — the trade for Jean Segura and the signing of Andrew McCutchen — should give the team the legitimate above-average performances they sorely needed without forcing anyone to play grossly out-of-position. But the team’s still missing, as Jack Donaghy said on 30 Rock, the third kind of heat. Unlikes the Braves, who have graduated Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies to the majors in the last couple of years, the Phillies can only get such a boost with the power of splashing cash. Either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado slide into the lineup quite nicely. But the uncertainty of signing them (other teams can make bids, after all; you can’t just go to the Bryce Harper Store and pick up as many as you can pay $350 million) made McCutchen and Segura crucial additions.

Pitchers

Outside of Aaron Nola, a pitcher with whom ZiPS has had a long obsession, ZiPS just isn’t that excited about the team’s rotation. It’s solidly average, yes, but a question mark surrounds most of the non-Nola starting talent. Jake Arrieta in particular takes a big hit in the projections, with ZiPS seeing his nearly 20% decline in strikeouts as a troubling sign. Which, historically, it has been.

On the other hand, the bullpen, despite the lack of eye-popping names a team like the Yankees possesses, projects as a deep, competent group with a lot of extra parts.

Bench and Prospects

In the sense of 2019 reinforcements, among the hitters, ZiPS only sees 2017 first-rounded Adam Haseley as having the potential to contribute to the parent team. Haseley projects as a worse offensive player than Dylan Cozens, but also has more defensive versatility, which might be important for a team not blessed with terribly exciting outfield depth. Speaking of that depth, I can’t blame the computer for not knowing what to make of Aaron Altherr at this point. I’m not sure what to make of him either, what with his Ryan Raburn-esque pattern of alternating overachieving and underachieving seasons. ZiPS has all but written off Mickey Moniak as a prospect.

Sixto Sanchez just missed getting a projection this year due to my dislike of projecting pitchers with no experience in the high minors, but he’s probably still the best bet on the roster for a nice surprise, and I may need to project him by midseason. ZiPS has a cyber-crush on former MLB pitcher’s son Luke Leftwich and while the team’s deep set of relievers means he’ll face an uphill battle for a roster spot, he’s at least a name that other teams should be paying attention to if they need to fill out the back of their bullpens.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Rhys Hoskins R 26 1B 150 546 92 137 30 2 34 113 79 155 5 3
Andrew McCutchen R 32 RF 145 533 82 136 27 2 25 80 82 144 11 7
Jean Segura R 29 SS 147 600 86 174 30 4 14 61 31 80 22 10
Odubel Herrera L 27 CF 155 568 72 150 28 4 19 66 42 137 11 4
Cesar Hernandez B 29 2B 155 566 82 148 19 6 11 49 79 133 19 7
Asdrubal Cabrera B 33 SS 139 503 65 135 30 2 21 70 40 107 2 1
Nick Williams L 25 RF 143 500 66 128 23 5 21 75 32 151 5 4
Maikel Franco R 26 3B 141 511 61 133 26 1 23 86 36 86 1 0
Mitch Walding L 26 3B 122 409 54 80 15 3 17 54 55 193 2 2
Adam Haseley L 23 CF 117 464 56 117 16 5 10 47 30 96 6 5
Scott Kingery R 25 SS 140 509 62 121 25 4 12 50 29 134 15 4
Damek Tomscha R 27 3B 116 424 49 102 19 1 11 47 28 93 2 1
Aaron Altherr R 28 RF 114 362 48 79 19 3 14 59 42 127 7 3
Andrew Knapp B 27 C 91 287 35 62 13 2 8 30 35 108 1 1
Jose Bautista R 38 RF 124 395 62 81 19 0 16 54 67 128 4 3
Jorge Alfaro R 26 C 106 385 39 87 16 2 11 42 18 151 2 1
Trevor Plouffe R 33 3B 92 305 38 66 14 1 12 38 35 95 2 1
Dean Anna L 32 2B 115 413 49 98 16 3 3 29 41 67 5 4
Dylan Cozens L 25 RF 122 422 59 85 17 2 23 72 48 206 10 4
Will Middlebrooks R 30 3B 80 276 31 59 11 2 13 38 15 91 1 1
Deivi Grullon R 23 C 98 365 40 85 15 1 16 48 17 107 0 0
Jesmuel Valentin B 25 2B 98 301 36 67 13 3 6 28 30 78 3 1
Roman Quinn R 26 CF 76 274 32 65 10 5 5 25 23 80 21 7
Collin Cowgill R 33 CF 94 292 34 59 11 1 8 28 24 89 3 2
Matt McBride R 34 C 69 231 29 52 14 1 9 30 18 55 1 1
Logan Moore L 28 C 68 220 22 41 7 1 5 19 22 78 0 0
Austin Listi R 25 1B 116 419 52 93 18 2 14 50 42 126 1 0
Danny Ortiz L 29 LF 118 410 46 92 21 2 14 57 19 112 2 2
Phil Gosselin R 30 2B 112 302 34 68 14 2 5 26 23 75 1 2
Ryan Goins L 31 SS 108 312 31 68 14 2 5 31 23 84 3 2
Heiker Meneses R 27 2B 74 241 21 47 6 1 1 12 14 80 4 4
Jiandido Tromp R 25 RF 113 404 43 83 18 3 11 44 28 145 6 5
Arquimedes Gamboa B 21 SS 114 448 45 86 13 4 7 35 41 136 6 3
Jose Pujols R 23 RF 119 439 49 87 13 3 17 51 36 211 2 3
Cornelius Randolph L 22 LF 124 448 48 98 18 2 9 41 42 137 3 4
Jan Hernandez R 24 RF 103 363 41 69 11 2 14 42 26 167 4 3
Mickey Moniak L 21 CF 125 476 45 102 22 4 8 44 23 143 6 8

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Rhys Hoskins .251 .351 .500 125 .249 .289 6.3 2 3.4 Eric Karros
Andrew McCutchen .255 .360 .454 117 .199 .305 5.9 -1 2.7 Tim Salmon
Jean Segura .290 .331 .423 101 .133 .316 5.4 -4 2.5 Julio Franco
Odubel Herrera .264 .321 .428 99 .164 .318 5.1 2 2.4 Terrence Long
Cesar Hernandez .261 .355 .375 97 .113 .325 5.0 -3 2.2 Jose Offerman
Asdrubal Cabrera .268 .325 .461 108 .193 .304 5.5 -12 1.7 Rich Aurilia
Nick Williams .256 .308 .448 100 .192 .326 4.9 2 1.3 Chris James
Maikel Franco .260 .309 .450 101 .190 .274 5.1 -7 1.2 Joe Crede
Mitch Walding .196 .297 .372 78 .176 .317 3.7 4 0.9 Tom Quinlan
Adam Haseley .252 .304 .373 81 .121 .299 4.0 1 0.7 Victor Mata
Scott Kingery .238 .283 .373 74 .136 .300 3.9 0 0.7 Rafael Ramirez
Damek Tomscha .241 .301 .368 79 .127 .284 3.9 2 0.7 Brennan King
Aaron Altherr .218 .308 .403 89 .185 .294 4.3 2 0.7 Brian Banks
Andrew Knapp .216 .304 .359 77 .143 .316 3.7 -1 0.5 Tom Wilson
Jose Bautista .205 .328 .375 89 .170 .259 4.1 -2 0.4 Greg Vaughn
Jorge Alfaro .226 .279 .364 71 .138 .341 3.5 0 0.4 Joel Skinner
Trevor Plouffe .216 .299 .387 82 .170 .273 4.0 -2 0.3 Reed Secrist
Dean Anna .237 .315 .312 70 .075 .277 3.4 2 0.3 Don Blasingame
Dylan Cozens .201 .284 .415 85 .213 .321 4.0 0 0.2 Shanie Dugas
Will Middlebrooks .214 .254 .409 74 .196 .267 3.5 2 0.2 Caonabo Cosme
Deivi Grullon .233 .268 .411 79 .178 .285 3.9 -5 0.2 Gilberto Reyes
Jesmuel Valentin .223 .297 .346 72 .123 .281 3.6 0 0.2 Doug Saunders
Roman Quinn .237 .300 .365 78 .128 .317 4.1 -3 0.1 Carlos Gomez
Collin Cowgill .202 .268 .329 59 .127 .262 2.9 4 -0.1 Alan Cockrell
Matt McBride .225 .285 .411 84 .186 .257 4.0 -7 -0.1 Mike Macfarlane
Logan Moore .186 .261 .295 49 .109 .263 2.6 3 -0.2 Tom Nieto
Austin Listi .222 .303 .375 81 .153 .283 4.0 -2 -0.3 Julio Vinas
Danny Ortiz .224 .260 .388 71 .163 .275 3.5 4 -0.4 Ray Ortiz
Phil Gosselin .225 .280 .334 64 .109 .284 3.2 -2 -0.5 Rodney Nye
Ryan Goins .218 .269 .324 58 .106 .283 3.0 -2 -0.5 Kevin Baez
Heiker Meneses .195 .247 .241 32 .046 .288 1.8 3 -1.0 Luke Sable
Jiandido Tromp .205 .261 .347 61 .141 .290 3.0 1 -1.1 Richie Robnett
Arquimedes Gamboa .192 .261 .286 47 .094 .259 2.5 -2 -1.3 Carlos Mendoza
Jose Pujols .198 .259 .358 63 .159 .332 3.0 -2 -1.3 Alan Cockrell
Cornelius Randolph .219 .288 .328 65 .109 .295 3.2 -4 -1.4 Ntema Ndungidi
Jan Hernandez .190 .251 .347 59 .157 .302 2.9 -5 -1.6 Victor Ferrante
Mickey Moniak .214 .251 .328 54 .113 .289 2.6 -4 -1.8 Dominick Ambrosini

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Aaron Nola R 26 14 9 3.19 32 32 192.0 170 68 19 48 197
Nick Pivetta R 26 10 11 4.50 31 31 158.0 157 79 25 52 168
Jake Arrieta R 33 10 10 4.32 28 28 152.0 146 73 24 54 135
Vince Velasquez R 27 9 9 4.39 28 27 133.3 129 65 20 50 146
Seranthony Dominguez R 24 7 4 3.03 63 0 65.3 49 22 5 29 86
Zach Eflin R 25 10 10 4.47 27 26 141.0 146 70 21 38 117
Enyel De Los Santos R 23 8 9 4.73 30 25 142.7 145 75 22 59 124
Jerad Eickhoff R 28 7 7 4.69 23 22 121.0 126 63 20 41 111
Ranger Suarez L 23 6 6 4.61 26 25 130.7 137 67 16 51 97
Austin Davis L 26 4 3 3.50 58 0 72.0 65 28 7 26 77
Jose Alvarez L 30 4 3 3.66 71 0 59.0 55 24 5 23 57
Juan Nicasio R 32 4 3 3.46 55 0 54.7 50 21 6 17 63
Hector Neris R 30 4 3 3.61 69 0 67.3 56 27 10 26 90
Luke Leftwich R 25 3 3 3.58 49 0 65.3 59 26 5 30 68
Tommy Hunter R 32 4 3 3.81 58 0 56.7 56 24 6 14 45
James Pazos L 28 3 2 3.68 59 0 51.3 47 21 5 20 52
Pat Neshek R 38 3 2 3.41 45 0 37.0 34 14 5 6 35
Edubray Ramos R 26 4 3 3.77 63 0 59.7 56 25 6 21 60
Aaron Loup L 31 1 1 3.48 58 0 44.0 41 17 4 17 48
Luis Avilan L 29 2 2 3.67 67 0 49.0 44 20 5 20 53
Brandon Leibrandt L 26 5 6 4.74 22 17 89.3 95 47 12 33 69
Trevor Bettencourt R 24 3 2 3.71 31 0 43.7 41 18 5 15 44
Tyler Viza R 24 7 8 4.89 28 17 103.0 109 56 15 41 82
Adam Morgan L 29 1 1 4.01 67 0 49.3 47 22 5 22 50
Victor Arano R 24 2 2 4.13 62 0 61.0 59 28 9 20 59
JoJo Romero L 22 6 7 5.13 18 18 98.3 102 56 17 48 90
Cole Irvin L 25 8 10 5.23 24 23 134.3 151 78 23 47 91
Connor Seabold R 23 6 7 5.31 23 23 120.3 130 71 25 42 106
Pedro Beato R 32 5 5 4.68 58 0 59.7 60 31 9 24 51
Thomas Eshelman R 25 6 9 5.45 25 25 135.3 158 82 28 39 95
Adonis Medina R 22 6 8 5.26 22 21 106.0 112 62 18 51 95
Tyler Gilbert L 25 4 4 4.78 49 0 64.0 68 34 11 20 55
Drew Anderson R 25 5 8 5.45 23 20 104.0 115 63 20 41 83
Edgar Garcia R 22 4 5 5.27 45 5 68.3 70 40 12 36 67
Jeff Singer L 25 3 4 5.36 45 0 50.3 48 30 7 38 50
Yacksel Rios R 26 3 4 5.40 52 2 65.0 67 39 11 35 63
Kyle Dohy L 22 6 9 5.43 47 0 53.0 40 32 7 63 79
Seth McGarry R 25 3 4 5.46 46 0 61.0 60 37 8 47 56
Tom Windle L 27 4 6 5.79 47 0 51.3 54 33 10 32 47
Ranfi Casimiro R 26 5 9 6.43 32 11 85.3 99 61 19 43 65

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Nola 787 9.23 2.25 0.89 .292 132 76 3.23 4.5 Tim Hudson
Nick Pivetta 679 9.57 2.96 1.42 .308 97 104 4.18 1.8 Dickie Noles
Jake Arrieta 652 7.99 3.20 1.42 .282 97 103 4.63 1.7 Andy Messersmith
Vince Velasquez 574 9.86 3.38 1.35 .308 99 101 4.13 1.7 Storm Davis
Seranthony Dominguez 275 11.85 3.99 0.69 .293 143 70 3.07 1.6 Tim Spooneybarger
Zach Eflin 602 7.47 2.43 1.34 .297 94 106 4.34 1.4 Larry Christenson
Enyel De Los Santos 629 7.82 3.72 1.39 .295 92 109 4.80 1.2 Al Nipper
Jerad Eickhoff 526 8.26 3.05 1.49 .304 93 108 4.60 1.1 Ed Wojna
Ranger Suarez 577 6.68 3.51 1.10 .298 91 110 4.59 1.1 Mike Miller
Austin Davis 305 9.63 3.25 0.88 .302 120 83 3.48 1.0 Ed Olwine
Jose Alvarez 253 8.69 3.51 0.76 .301 119 84 3.59 0.9 Harry Perkowski
Juan Nicasio 230 10.37 2.80 0.99 .310 122 82 3.31 0.9 Jay Howell
Hector Neris 284 12.03 3.48 1.34 .299 117 86 3.74 0.9 Juan Rincon
Luke Leftwich 284 9.37 4.13 0.69 .303 117 85 3.58 0.9 Turk Farrell
Tommy Hunter 238 7.15 2.22 0.95 .292 114 88 3.79 0.8 Dick Coffman
James Pazos 222 9.12 3.51 0.88 .298 118 85 3.79 0.7 Joe Klink
Pat Neshek 148 8.51 1.46 1.22 .284 128 78 3.50 0.7 Mike Timlin
Edubray Ramos 254 9.05 3.17 0.91 .303 112 90 3.60 0.7 Ehren Wassermann
Aaron Loup 192 9.82 3.48 0.82 .314 125 80 3.65 0.7 Randy Tomlin
Luis Avilan 210 9.73 3.67 0.92 .300 115 87 3.66 0.6 Tippy Martinez
Brandon Leibrandt 394 6.95 3.32 1.21 .302 89 113 4.63 0.6 Andy Hassler
Trevor Bettencourt 186 9.07 3.09 1.03 .300 113 88 3.79 0.5 Mark Worrell
Tyler Viza 457 7.17 3.58 1.31 .300 86 116 4.82 0.5 Dan Smith
Adam Morgan 214 9.12 4.01 0.91 .307 105 95 3.78 0.5 Tippy Martinez
Victor Arano 260 8.70 2.95 1.33 .294 102 98 4.22 0.5 Danny Graves
JoJo Romero 444 8.24 4.39 1.56 .300 85 118 5.21 0.5 Greg Kubes
Cole Irvin 598 6.10 3.15 1.54 .298 83 120 5.25 0.5 John O’Donoghue
Connor Seabold 531 7.93 3.14 1.87 .299 82 122 5.31 0.3 Chris Johnson
Pedro Beato 262 7.69 3.62 1.36 .291 93 108 4.76 0.2 Ed Klieman
Thomas Eshelman 599 6.32 2.59 1.86 .302 80 126 5.46 0.1 Nick Blackburn
Adonis Medina 479 8.07 4.33 1.53 .304 80 125 5.18 0.1 Jeff Fulchino
Tyler Gilbert 279 7.73 2.81 1.55 .302 88 114 4.79 0.0 Chris Key
Drew Anderson 466 7.18 3.55 1.73 .301 77 130 5.41 -0.1 Jon Perlman
Edgar Garcia 310 8.82 4.74 1.58 .304 80 125 5.23 -0.2 Stan Bahnsen
Jeff Singer 237 8.94 6.79 1.25 .295 78 128 5.41 -0.3 Philip Barzilla
Yacksel Rios 297 8.72 4.85 1.52 .304 78 128 5.21 -0.3 Sean Green
Kyle Dohy 263 13.42 10.70 1.19 .300 77 129 5.68 -0.4 Tyler Johnson
Seth McGarry 290 8.26 6.93 1.18 .297 77 130 5.53 -0.5 Lloyd Allen
Tom Windle 239 8.24 5.61 1.75 .299 73 138 5.90 -0.6 Dean Brueggemann
Ranfi Casimiro 397 6.86 4.54 2.00 .302 65 153 6.21 -1.1 Mark Woodyard

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2019 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

I’m very much of the opinion that this team is good, but probably the fourth-best team in the division behind the Nationals, Braves, and Mets.

That said, if they sign Harper or Moustakas/Keuchel I think they’ll be in pretty good shape. The computer seems a little down on Pivetta, Velazquez, and Eflin. They might regress collectively, but having all of them regress that much collectively seems…unlikely? Although it looks like some of the low WAR totals are because the playing time projections are a little lower than I would expect.

montreal
Member
montreal

Agree on Pivetta, Velazquez and Eflin. I like all 3, and while zips likes their strikeout ability, those ERAs are not good. I see they are the result of giving up too many homers.

bosoxforlife
Member
Member
bosoxforlife

Pitching in Citizens Bank Park has a way of doing that to pitchers. Maybe they shouldn’t pitch in Philly. That would probably help their HR tendencies.

bosoxforlife
Member
Member
bosoxforlife

The question of the value of computer projections raises doubts again. For more years than I care to remember the litany was that improvement could be expected from these young pitchers as they gain more experience in the major leagues. It appears that ZIPS questions that long standing belief, which actually seems to be valid a fairly high percentage of the time. As you say, to have all three take a step back seems…..unlikely.