Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 12/20/18

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks and welcome to the last pre-Xmas version of my FanGraphs chat for the year. Lots of questions in the hopper already so let’s get to it…

Scott: Does Baines’ election open the door for Nick Markasis in Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe: I suppose it’s possible 30 years down the road, but I think people are misunderstanding the ramifications of Baines’ election. By and large, the BBWAA voters, who as a group rejected Baines at a 94-95% clip five times, aren’t going to take a crony-driven bag job as something that represents a new standard, and just elect any player who gives 3,000 hits a run but falls short. if Markakis gets there, he’ll likely be the least decorated player to do so, and it will be interesting to see how voters react, but when we’ve got 8x Gold Glovers being ignored, I have a hard time imagining such a relatively un-decorated player getting in.

Nate: What chances do you see Tulo going to the Pirates?

Jay Jaffe: I think there are several teams looking into the possibility of signing Tulo. Given his California ties and the fact that they made the playoffs last year, I’d put more money on the A’s landing Tulo than the Pirates. Then again, if a team like Pittsburgh can offer him a clearer path to 500 PA (as if his body can cooperate), maybe there’s something there.

Dan: How widely known is it that there’s a whole museum that is separate from the actual Hall at the HOF? Lots of coverage doesn’t make that clear, and I think it influences people’s opinions on who should be voted in.

Jay Jaffe: well, the full name is the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, and I think people understand it’s full of artifacts and photos of the game’s history, but that sometimes gets lost in the debates. I wrote a bit about this at the end of The Cooperstown Casebook — I went up there in February 2016, the deadest spot on the baseball calendar, to do some final research and spent four wonderful days there, communing with the plaques in complete solitude and reacquainting myself with the rest of the museum, which really is a lot of fun to walk through without worrying about JAWS and PEDs and all of the controversies that surround the voting.

Alex K: Would Gary Sheffield own a better Cooperstown case had he played at DH?  Also, some argue we shouldn’t punish Gary for playing the field as the manager’s made him do it, any thoughts on considering how managers used players for HoF consideration?

Jay Jaffe: A first-time voter asked me to look into this. The problem is that Shef spent 2/3 of his career in the NL, where the DH wasn’t an option, so you’d have to imagine a much different career for him. Maybe starting with one where the Brewers weren’t ignoring his claims that he was injured (he was sent down while complaining of a foot injury that turned out to be a fracture) and subjecting him to non-random drug tests because of uncle Dwight Gooden’s problems.

Anyway, for Shef’s NYY/Detroit career his WAR is about the same as it would have been if he’d been doing full-time DH duty. Of more interest is looking at alternate defensive metrics, such as DRA (used at the Baseball Gauge, and part of the SABR Defensive Index for the Gold Gloves voting), which don’t view his fielding numbers as an outlier to the same extent. That would improve his JAWS by about 5 points, though I haven’t gone ahead and checked to see how he would stack up vs. other RF using the same methodology.

Jay Jaffe: Warts, iron glove and all, I’d take Gary Sheffield in my lineup and in the Hall of Fame any day over Harold Baines.

Gerard: do  you think that the Dodgers will land either Kluber or Harper

Jay Jaffe: Given their surpluses of starting pitching and outfielders, I would be surprised if they didn’t come away with one of the two this winter, and I suppose it’s possible they land both, if, say, they were to use Puig, Verdugo and Wood as pieces in a Kluber deal.

Mark: Does Harold Baines’ election stain the HOF permanently, and what steps should be taken to ensure something like this never happens again?

Jay Jaffe: Oh please. The Old Timers’ Committee election of like 21 players in 1945-1946 and the Veterans Committee selections from the Frisch/Terry years put in many players who are every bid as questionable as Baines. The Hall will survive this so long as BBWAA voters understand that the worst errors do not constitute the baseline for new standards.

BrewCrewHullabaloo: Joe Mauer, Hall of Famer? I say yes but read on how he did not catch enough and his teams sucked in the postseason. I think those arguments are lame.

Jay Jaffe: discussed here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/retiring-mauer-and-utley-both-worthy-o…

Alby: Why do we insist on calling it “pitch framing” instead of “blown calls by the ump”? Is there any evidence that individual catchers have more to do with this “skill” than the umpires do?

Jay Jaffe: Because of the way he’s positioned and the limitations of human neuroprocessing, it is impossible for the home plate umpire to see the pitch travel the entire path from the pitcher’s hand to the glove — at some point, around the margins it’s educated guesswork, and some umpires are better than others.. Expecting perfection is a fool’s errand. Are you a fool?

And yes, I do believe that the folks at Baseball Prospectus (and probably elsewhere) have controlled for umpires in their models to show that this is a skill of certain catchers. Might be worth digging up Mike Fast’s old articles and/or asking somebody like BP’s Jonathan Judge for guidance if you want to see the numbers.

Nelson: Will Lee smith be the last Expo to get in to the hall ever?

Jay Jaffe: I’d like to think this surge of support for Larry Walker bodes well in terms of small committees (FWIW, Tony La Russa gushed about him). So I don’t think the books are closed on the Expos

Rockie Dangerfield: What if another group decided to open its own baseball hall of fame?

Jay Jaffe: They could certainly try, but there’s almost certainly no way in hell that MLB would cooperate/subsidize them to the extent that they do the current Hall. You think guys are just gonna start sending memorabilia to a startup Hall that doesn’t have the league’s blessing?

Jeff: Love the HoF series. How does Carlos Beltran stack?

Jay Jaffe: I think by the time he’s eligible in 2023, he’ll be in very good shape. he’s got great traditional and advanced stats to his name, including a stellar postseason reputation and the number 9 ranking in JAWS among CF.

Craig Kimbrel: What do you think the chances are I get into the hall som

Jay Jaffe: You and Kenley jansen both need to make sure that 2018 isn’t the beginning of the end. See https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/world-series-offers-rare-meeting-of-po…

Alex K: What do you think of the chances of Bobby Abreu?

Jay Jaffe: Completely and totally screwed. Criminally underappreciated during his career (2 All-Star games). Good-not-great advanced stats (he’s just 20th in JAWS, below all 3 standards but at least close on peak). Will get less than 5%.

JAWS has Shef a bit lower (23rd, with a gap of 1.5 points between the two) but if I had one spot on my ballot for the two, he’d get it because of the extent to which we might question those defensive numbers.

BrewCrewHullabaloo: When I serve brats and sauerkraut the wife complains the kids are not getting any veggies, and I point out that sauerkraut is made of cabbage and provides vitamins B and C. Help me out here

Jay Jaffe: I mean, you can cook up a side vegetable (besides french fries) to go with it. Mustard seeds provide omega 3 fatty acids, so if you buy the right mustard I guess that would help too.

DJ Tanner: Braves have to make another move right? The NL East has gotten a lot stronger this offseason, Donaldson is great but they could use more. Why not offload a couple pitching prospects for Haniger? Fills the OF void, plus he has controllable years where he will be around with a lot of their young core.

Jay Jaffe: I fully expect the Braves to make moves to address their starting pitching and right field voids. Haniger would be an interesting target, but given that he’s under control through 2022 I don’t think trading him is something Jerry Dipoto is planning to do unless he’s bowled over.

Harold Baines: Still hate Reinsdorf Jay?

Jay Jaffe: Having grown up a Utah Jazz fan, I would hate him with the fire of a thousand suns just for owning the Bulls. He was a key figure in both collusion and the 1994 strike. He should be put on a rocket into the sun and force-fed packets of expired mayonnaise until it meets its destiny.

Steven: What can MLB/MLBPA do to speed up the offseason?

Jay Jaffe: The first baseball games that matter won’t be played for another 3+ months. The decisions that involve committing millions upon millions of dollars aren’t actually a spectator sport. It is not on either side to “speed up” the offseason simply for entertainment purposes.

Pat’s Bat: Is it possible for a HoF candidate to hurt his candidacy by playing well past his prime a la Willie Mays in a Mets uniform or Babe Ruth as a Brave?  Have any borderline candidates hurt themselves like this?

Jay Jaffe: Offhand I can’t think of anybody that was truly hurt that much.The 5-year waiting period tends to wash away those bad memories. Think of Roberto Alomar, who looked totally cooked by the end and yet was elected with 90+% in his second year (delayed only by the spitting incident). Or Ken Griffey Jr., the record-holder for voting percentage.

It’s the quick disappearances in the mid-to-late 30s that hurt a candidate far more. Ron Santo, Dick Allen, Bobby Grich, Larry Walker, etc.

carrotjuice: How close to 75% do you Larry Walker needs to get over the next two years to have a strong chance of election via the appropriate committee?

Jay Jaffe: Alan Trammell got above 40% for the first time in his final year on the ballot and was then hastily elected by the Modern Baseball Era Committee, so I’m guessing — guessing — that level of support, which Walker appears likely to attain this year (and perhaps above 50%) will put him in good position. Hell, Fred McGriff won’t get to 40% and I think he’ll be fine in front of the TGEC.

Tony: Scott Rolen’s candidacy is one of the weirder ones I can remember, where he seems to have pretty widespread support from writers hypothetically, but not in actual votes. Even someone like Rosenthal said he felt Rolen deserved a vote but then didn’t vote him anyway. Is Rolen going to end up being one of those candidates, like Alan Trammell, where the writers keep kicking the can and by the time they realize they’ve kicked the can too far, it’ll be too late to elect him?

Jay Jaffe: The ballot logjam remains a problem, and will to at least some extent so long as Bonds, Clemens, Mussina and Schilling clog it by getting 50% + without getting in. Rolen will still be eligible past that point (except for Mussina, they’re done with the 2022 ballot, while Rolen is eligible through 2027) so I wouldn’t panic just yet.

Travis: This is probably a case-by-case basis, and we all know how Joe Morgan feels, but what are the players feelings about (specifically) Bonds and Clemens? If their percentage increases should not make it to 75%, how would they be regarded by a jury of their peers in the Today’s Game Committee?

Jay Jaffe: Good question. The committees are chosen by the Hall itself, and I think it’s pretty clear that they know how to count votes.

bb: Any idea why the Lorena Martin investigation is taking so long?

Jay Jaffe: Because they want to do a thorough job?

Guys, I know it’s a slow offseason but please get a grip. The MLB offseason news cycle does not owe you anything in the way of entertainment or instant gratification.

Dub: here for the mandatory chat, is lunch provided?

Jay Jaffe: Alas, gotta bring your own. Hell, I’ve reached the point where I didn’t order in time for my meal to get here by the time I cut out in ~30 minutes.

Scott: Although they were vastly different players, could we view Ted Simmons as the Richie Ashburn of catchers? In other words, a great player who was overshadowed by multiple contemporaries who were among the greatest ever at their positions.

Jay Jaffe: Not a bad analogy but Ashburn retired at 35 — as noted above, not a great strategy for getting to Cooperstownn — when it appeared he could still play (121 OPS+ and 2.1 WAR in his final season) where as Simmons was done as done can be while playing at age 38.

Metsy: How far away is Keith Hernandez from being a hall of famer?

Jay Jaffe: He really struggled for support on the writers’ ballot. I think the nontraditional profile for a first baseman hurt him, as did… wait for it… retiring at age 36.

Jay Jaffe: I think he’d do well in front of a small committee, but he’s gotta get on one of those ballots first, and thus far that hasn’t happened. Grrr

Pat’s Bat: I noticed on Ryan Thibadeaux’s hall tracker that Clemens had received one more vote so far than Bonds.  Clemens has consistently gotten a couple more votes every year.  Why on earth would someone vote for Clemens but not Bonds too?

Jay Jaffe: it’s a weird bit of hair splitting, for sure. That said, Bonds did fail an MLB-administered amphetamine test in 2006, which was not supposed to be public knowledge (the track for a first test was treatment and counselling, while only a second positive resulted in suspension). So maybe it’s that. https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/failure-leaves-testy-barry…

Sam: If Mike Trout’s career went sideways and he had five consecutive years of a .200/.300/.400 slash, is he still a HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: Probably, yes

Jay Jaffe: I mean, the guy is already 7th in JAWS and above the CF standard, and he’ll pass DiMaggio for 6th sometime in April. Two MVP awards and 4 other times when he was runner-up, it’s pretty clear that he’s already got the dominance that voters seek.

Hank: Putting aside the PED suspension,  how many more good/decent seasons would Robinson Can need to be a HOF’r?

Jay Jaffe: He’s already 7th in JAWS, above the 2B standard, with great traditional stats for a 2B.

But he pissed it all away, literally.

Matt: Reading a River Ave Blues article about Pettitte. His numbers are strikingly similar to….Mark Buehrle. That seems strange to me…do you have the career/peak breakouts for the two? Pettitte never had a sustained “peak” – and neither did Buehrle – but I’m curious if Pettitte’s best 7 is better than Buehrle’s.

Jay Jaffe: they’re two spots apart in the JAWS rankings. 60.3/34.1/47.2 for Pettitte (90th in JAWS), 59.3/35.9/47.6 for Buehrle (88th), so slight edge on peak for MB; it’s worth noting that he had 6 top-10 finishes in WAR to Pettitte’s 3.  They have the same career ERA+ (117) in innings totals that are within like 30-something of each other. And of course both lefties.

Taylor T: Who do you predict to win the NL East, and do you think it will be close?

Jay Jaffe: Let’s wait and see how they look when the shopping is finished. Seems silly to guess now before Philadelphia makes its big moves and the Braves, Mets and Nationals finish what they’re doing.

Individual 1: Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, aren’t these the choices Farhan Zaidi should be making?  One year contracts to flip for prospects at the all star break.

Jay Jaffe: Did Zaidi have $20 million lying around to commit to those two? Did those guys want to uproot their residences and families twice in one year — for Harvey, the second time in a row? It takes two to tango, tiger.

tb.25: As the public HOF expert, what’s been your feel on Bonds/Clemens this year? Loved your write ups – I mean from what you’ve heard from voters, or seen in articles, etc.

Jay Jaffe: I suspect they’ll gain a few points and clear 60%, but I don’t see major breakthroughs in their support. Each has only netted one vote from a returning voter out fo 73 ballots published thus far, though they’re both 4-for-4 from first-timers. They need at least some segment of those who haven’t supported them before to change their minds, and I think some voters are determined to wait them out.

LPFan: Is Ichiro a first ballot HOF or his later years hurt him? Or is he not even a HOF?

Jay Jaffe: are you kidding? the guy is beloved throughout the game. first ballot. 95% plus.

Jay Jaffe: Sorry, i just pulled a q virtually identical to one I answered 3 weeks ago.

Guest: What do we think of the fact that Steamer has Luke voit projected with a higher wOBA than Max Muncy?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I was impressed by Voit when he came to the Yankees. I don’t think we should be surprised at the projections liking him more. He’s a year younger and didn’t have ~250 PA worth of MLB struggles before last year.

Jake: Who gets in first (if at all): Barry Bonds or Bobby Grich?

Jay Jaffe: Bonds. Gonna be a long time before Grich gets in, I’m afraid.

Oliver: Do you think Joe Kelly will be a success at the Dodgers? And will the Red Sox regret not signing him?

Jay Jaffe: 1. Eh, like most relievers on multiyear deals, he’ll probably be worth the money in 1 or 2 years out of 3, which isn’t saying much; $25M/3 more or less means that he’s worth it if he’s got 1.0 WAR, which isn’t that high a bar. if the Red Sox miss him, they’re doin it rong.

Guest: How do you see Rivera’s place on the ballot affecting Billy Wagner? Seemed like it might’ve hurt him with the early ballot but I see him picking up more steam. Smith and Hoffman are another factor.

Jay Jaffe: I think there are voters out there who have been waiting for the jam to clear long enough to throw Wagner a vote, but the presence of an obvious 1st-ballot guy doesn’t make that any easier. I do think that the elections of Smith and Hoffman benefit Wagner in the long run though. Doing Billy’s profile for tomorrow, I think.

Jeff: Think the Angels do something cool like sign Keuchel and trade for Kluber? They seem to have the prospects for Kluber with Adell

Jay Jaffe: I would be shocked if they traded Adell, and I’d be doubly shocked if they were so aggressive as to acquire both Keuchel and Kluber. I think they’re treading water.

Mike: If Greg Maddux unretired and re-joined the Braves, would his HOF placque be taken down? Would he face another HOF election when his “second” career ended?

Jay Jaffe: Nobody has ever tested this but no, that plaque isn’t coming down. It might get revised if his accomplishments merited it.

Puckryan: Who’s the next non-HOF deserving player will be the next non-deserving HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: The next guy to get in who’s well below the JAWS baseline might well be Fred McGriff, on the 2022 ballot. This presupposes that the 2012 Golden Days ballot will be such a cluster**** that the near-misses from last time like Kaat and Oliva will be similarly thwarted. I see the arguments for both but their JAWS is well below standard.

mike: Has MLB ever had the Hall set up a traveling museum? Cooperstown is a ridiculous spot for it.

Jay Jaffe: Yes, the Hall did a traveling show called Baseball As America, which I saw in both NY and DC in 2002-2003, IIRC. Was very cool stuff.

And I like the Hall where it is, thanks. Cooperstown and upstate NY in general is a great destination — gorgeous natural beauty up there, and a lovely, baseball-mad small town. If you think it’s ridiculous, that suggests you’ve never been, and I urge you to remedy that.

Michael J: When choosing between Harper and Machado, if I were a GM I’d take Manny to age better over the course of the decade because of his defense and his increase in hitting every single year.  While with Harper, you’re betting on two seasons (2015 and 2017?) in which he hit like Trout and the defense is already not looking too hot.  As a Dodger fan, I would love Harper, but part of me would wish they could re-sign Manny and just figure out the infield later.

Jay Jaffe: All else being equal, you’d want the guy playing the more difficult position as the starting point, but I do think that Harper, despite that disadvantage and the streakier nature of his career, is the more marketable player thanks to Manny’s, uh, reputation, which is probably a consideration when you’re spending that kind of coin.

Josh: If I were in a position to fill out a HoF ballot, I would feel obligated to vote for 10 guys, especially on a ballot this stacked.  I wouldn’t be living up to my job or responsibility otherwise.  How is this not a more common sentiment?

Jay Jaffe: We’ve seen record rates of 10-deep ballots and votes per ballot in recent years, not necessarily in 2018 but several times in the past few years — not to mention the largest 5-year swell of BBWAA-elected honorees. The evidence suggests this is a very common sentiment.

N: What do the Cubs need to do this offseason to stay competitive in a strong division?

Jay Jaffe: Spend money.

Rockie Dangerfield: If you could have MLB Network televise one additional league, which would you choose?

Jay Jaffe: La Liga. Every four years during World Cup time I swear that I’ll become a regular soccer viewer if I knew what channel it was on. EPL has never hooked me, but I’ve enjoyed what I’ve seen from Spain.

Of course if we’re talking baseball leagues it’s probably NPB for caliber of play, though the fireworks of KBO might make that the better entertainment value.

Puckryan: With DeGrom winning the CY with 10 wins but dominating sabr stats, do you foresee a day when HOF voting looks at more of the sabr stats rather than reaching particular milestones? And is that why Baines got in? Thanks

Jay Jaffe: I think the deGrom and Baines votes are polar opposites when it comes to the impact of advanced stats. The Baines vote is a reaction to their impact on the BBWAA’s voting. It’s a bunch of insiders saying Tell Your Statistics to Shut Up, which is rich.

Brian CashGod: Isn’t the slow offseason kind of a huge story in itself? If FAs aren’t coming off the board because teams aren’t offering the valuations players think they should (used to) receive, that really doesn’t bode well for long-term labor peace since the same stories offseason were supposedly a one-time thing.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think this is as slow as last year’s market. None of last year’s three $100M+ deals were signed before February, where Corbin’s was done before Xmas. We’ve got 2 other deals of $50M plus before Xmas, where I think Santana’s was the only one done by then (Wade Davis before the new year).

But bigger picture, the winter market isn’t the same as it was a few years ago, and the current CBA is a big reason why. Whether that’s going to lead to a work stoppage remains to be seen, but I don’t think the MLBPA has the teeth for it. [post-chat addendum: former colleague Travis Sawchik has a more in-depth look than my off-the-cuff answer: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-hot-stove…]

The Amish: Are you from Utah?

Jay Jaffe: Grew up in SLC from the time I was three until graduating high school (1973-1988). Parents still live there.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, lots of good questions still in the queue but my time slot has run out and I’ve gotta get some lunch. Thanks for stopping by. Not sure yet whether I’ll chat next week but find me on Twitter and we’ll figure it out.