2019 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

by
January 23, 2019

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners.

ZiPS Projections
2019 2018

Batters

Jerry Dipoto’s may be a one-man Hot Stove League, but at least based on the roster as of now — everybody could be traded by March — Seattle seems to still be in something of a no man’s land when it comes to rebuild. The Mariners aren’t actually bad, but it’s hard to envision them being that relevant in the AL West. There are a lot of older players here, but not many who really have all that much flip-potential. Sure, you can play some combination of Ryon Healy and Jay Bruce at first, or shift Edwin Encarnacion to first and make Bruce the full-time DH, or play Tim Beckham more than J.P. Crawford, but to what end?

ZiPS is still rooting for a Kyle Seager comeback, but I’m a little less sanguine at this point. On the plus side, it thinks Mitch Haniger is for real and sees at least some value in Dan Vogelbach, even if the Mariners don’t seem to. And yes, I know Ichiro is pretty much just coming back for the M’s and A’s games in Japan, but ZiPS doesn’t know those circumstances.

Pitchers

The Sad Tale of Felix Hernandez, as told by his yearly top comps:

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As disappointing as it feels, at this point, King Felix may be happy just to have a better end to his reign than Edward II did.

The rotation lost its high end in the short-term with the James Paxton trade, but while the pitchers at the top have similar projections to the Orioles’ two top starters — a damning comp if ever there was one — it’s also a deeper group. They’re not likely to be good, but the Mariners have just enough of them that the situation isn’t unbearably bleak. That’s a bit how I think of a turkey burger; I wouldn’t seek one out, but hey, it’s actual food. There are a lot of unknowns with two of Seattle’s pitchers — Yusei Kikuchi and Justus Sheffield — so there’s legitimate upside here.

Will it be enough to make the team a contender? No, but if we’re just talking about 2019 wins rather than the big picture planning stuff needed for the next good Mariners team, Seattle going .500 wouldn’t be all that odd, especially since ZiPS still projects the bullpen as adequate, which is probably the system’s biggest source of disagreement with Steamer when it comes to this roster.

Bench and Prospects

There are essentially two prospects in the high minors who ZiPS likes over the long-term: Sheffield and Justin Dunn. Jarred Kelenic hasn’t left rookie ball yet, so I don’t think we’re at the stage where ZiPS has much to contribute. But if Kelenic matches the .286/.371/.468 line from his debut at higher levels, I’m sure the computer will like him just fine.

After that? Pretty much nothing as far as ZiPS is concerned. It sees Shed Long as a role player who might have some pop, and Braden Bishop has defensive value, but there’s little algorithmic interest in players like Kyle Lewis or Evan White. Lewis in particular still hasn’t had a breakout with the bat and the knee injuries cloud whether he’ll be able to play centerfield, which is probably a necessity for his future value.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mitch Haniger R 28 RF 151 559 80 146 31 3 24 84 59 147 9 4
Kyle Seager L 31 3B 147 558 67 137 33 1 22 82 48 123 2 3
Mallex Smith L 26 CF 138 476 60 123 21 9 4 37 43 109 37 11
Edwin Encarnacion R 36 DH 127 463 68 109 17 1 26 85 68 126 2 0
Dan Vogelbach L 26 1B 128 439 64 109 19 0 19 65 71 111 1 1
Domingo Santana R 26 RF 136 437 58 101 19 1 22 57 60 187 6 3
J.P. Crawford L 24 SS 123 429 52 95 16 4 8 43 55 124 6 3
Dee Gordon L 31 2B 141 577 75 164 18 7 3 33 18 88 39 14
Denard Span L 35 LF 121 438 60 113 21 4 10 48 43 73 9 5
Jay Bruce L 32 RF 119 429 52 100 22 2 19 69 46 119 3 3
Dylan Moore R 26 3B 121 430 49 91 19 3 10 41 35 114 16 6
Omar Narvaez L 27 C 94 290 30 74 11 1 6 24 34 58 0 1
Shed Long L 23 2B 125 468 56 107 18 4 12 49 43 146 13 5
Cameron Maybin R 32 CF 118 379 48 92 17 2 7 38 41 91 16 6
Tim Beckham R 29 SS 117 415 48 98 18 3 13 46 30 125 3 3
Ryon Healy R 27 1B 143 553 62 139 25 1 24 80 28 135 0 1
Kaleb Cowart B 27 3B 128 437 49 95 23 3 9 48 34 130 11 3
David Freitas R 30 C 79 270 29 64 15 1 4 24 20 60 0 0
Braden Bishop R 25 CF 101 420 47 95 16 1 5 31 29 102 7 3
Austin Nola R 29 C 87 295 29 66 15 0 2 25 25 61 2 1
Mike Marjama R 29 C 75 275 29 63 16 2 7 32 13 63 2 2
Tito Polo R 24 CF 93 359 41 82 12 4 7 32 23 107 24 10
Andrew Aplin L 28 RF 89 310 36 65 12 1 4 26 35 78 7 3
Kris Negron R 33 2B 123 382 43 79 11 3 10 36 28 137 10 3
Ian Miller L 27 CF 119 472 49 110 14 3 2 31 30 108 29 7
Jose Lobaton B 34 C 52 152 15 31 5 1 4 17 17 45 1 0
Joe DeCarlo R 25 C 85 310 36 57 12 1 10 33 30 119 1 1
Tim Lopes R 25 2B 121 453 44 104 18 2 3 34 30 103 16 9
Donnie Walton B 25 2B 106 405 43 88 18 2 6 34 31 90 8 5
Kyle Lewis R 23 CF 87 341 34 74 16 0 10 37 21 117 2 0
Dom Thompson-Williams L 24 CF 99 369 42 78 13 2 13 39 25 134 13 10
Daniel Muno B 30 3B 77 243 26 49 10 1 3 19 29 80 3 4
Dario Pizzano L 28 LF 107 397 42 94 18 3 9 42 28 67 1 1
Evan White R 23 1B 125 510 55 113 21 4 12 53 35 137 3 4
Jake Fraley L 24 LF 67 245 26 52 11 4 3 23 19 71 10 9
Yonathan Mendoza B 25 SS 98 350 37 80 10 1 2 22 29 65 4 1
Orlando Calixte R 27 SS 126 431 46 95 15 3 11 44 25 121 13 3
Dustin Ackley L 31 LF 95 306 33 66 13 2 5 28 31 58 1 1
Ichiro Suzuki L 45 LF 76 128 12 29 3 0 1 8 9 24 0 0
Eric Filia L 26 RF 96 378 42 93 16 1 4 32 35 47 3 3
Chris Mariscal R 26 2B 117 448 44 89 14 2 7 37 36 163 4 2
Jayson Werth R 40 LF 49 178 20 35 9 0 5 18 19 53 1 1
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 31 RF 98 277 30 48 13 1 6 26 36 117 4 2
Joey Curletta R 25 1B 126 465 54 91 21 1 17 60 49 182 2 1
Logan Taylor R 25 3B 116 435 45 85 16 1 11 44 34 167 4 4
Anthony Jimenez R 23 CF 105 396 35 79 16 1 7 34 17 142 13 9
Joe Rizzo L 21 3B 128 500 44 97 17 2 8 43 35 164 5 1
Beau Amaral L 28 RF 97 347 34 73 12 1 3 27 22 102 6 3
Adam Law R 29 2B 101 349 30 70 14 1 2 23 19 96 6 3

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Mitch Haniger .261 .339 .456 118 .195 .314 5.7 6 3.6 Jermaine Dye
Kyle Seager .246 .310 .427 102 .181 .278 4.7 2 2.4 Todd Zeile
Mallex Smith .258 .325 .366 92 .107 .328 4.7 4 2.2 Luis Polonia
Edwin Encarnacion .235 .337 .445 115 .210 .267 5.3 0 2.1 Ben Oglivie
Dan Vogelbach .248 .353 .421 114 .173 .291 5.3 -1 1.9 Mario Valdez
Domingo Santana .231 .329 .430 109 .199 .346 5.0 -2 1.5 Ron Swoboda
J.P. Crawford .221 .316 .333 81 .112 .293 3.7 2 1.4 Rance Mulliniks
Dee Gordon .284 .311 .355 85 .071 .331 4.4 -1 1.2 Fernando Vina
Denard Span .258 .328 .393 99 .135 .290 4.7 -3 0.8 John Stone
Jay Bruce .233 .307 .427 101 .193 .278 4.5 -3 0.7 Tom Brunansky
Dylan Moore .212 .282 .340 72 .128 .265 3.4 5 0.7 Mike Moriarty
Omar Narvaez .255 .334 .362 94 .107 .301 4.3 -6 0.7 Mike LaValliere
Shed Long .229 .298 .361 82 .132 .306 3.8 -2 0.6 Jason Donald
Cameron Maybin .243 .318 .354 87 .111 .302 4.1 -4 0.6 Ryan Freel
Tim Beckham .236 .291 .388 86 .152 .307 3.9 -6 0.6 Chris Woodward
Ryon Healy .251 .290 .430 96 .179 .292 4.5 -3 0.4 Reggie Montgomery
Kaleb Cowart .217 .275 .346 71 .128 .289 3.4 3 0.4 Mike Turgeon
David Freitas .237 .295 .344 77 .107 .291 3.6 -2 0.4 Yorvit Torrealba
Braden Bishop .226 .284 .305 64 .079 .288 3.0 6 0.3 Rodney Nealeigh
Austin Nola .224 .291 .295 64 .071 .276 3.0 2 0.3 Dave Van Gorder
Mike Marjama .229 .273 .378 78 .149 .273 3.5 -3 0.2 Yamid Haad
Tito Polo .228 .289 .343 75 .114 .306 3.6 -2 0.2 Carlos Gomez
Andrew Aplin .210 .293 .294 64 .084 .268 3.0 7 0.1 Michael Tullier
Kris Negron .207 .271 .330 66 .123 .294 3.2 2 0.1 Dave Matranga
Ian Miller .233 .284 .288 60 .055 .298 3.2 4 0.1 Keiunta Span
Jose Lobaton .204 .287 .329 71 .125 .262 3.3 -1 0.0 Keith McDonald
Joe DeCarlo .184 .272 .326 65 .142 .260 2.9 -2 -0.1 Marc Sullivan
Tim Lopes .230 .280 .298 61 .068 .291 2.9 5 -0.1 Ron Marigny
Donnie Walton .217 .282 .316 66 .099 .265 3.0 0 -0.2 Greg Fulton
Kyle Lewis .217 .264 .352 69 .135 .299 3.3 -2 -0.3 Jeff Keitges
Dom Thompson-Williams .211 .268 .363 73 .152 .293 3.1 -2 -0.3 Shawn Jeter
Daniel Muno .202 .291 .288 62 .086 .288 2.6 0 -0.3 Douglas Bernier
Dario Pizzano .237 .292 .365 81 .128 .265 3.7 -3 -0.4 Tim Norrid
Evan White .222 .275 .349 72 .127 .280 3.2 6 -0.4 Greg Litton
Jake Fraley .212 .274 .327 66 .114 .287 2.7 3 -0.4 Jesus Hernandez
Yonathan Mendoza .229 .288 .280 59 .051 .276 2.9 -3 -0.5 Mark Germann
Orlando Calixte .220 .263 .346 67 .125 .281 3.3 -7 -0.6 Jason Bowers
Dustin Ackley .216 .287 .320 69 .105 .251 3.1 0 -0.6 Ken Ramos
Ichiro Suzuki .227 .277 .273 54 .047 .272 2.6 -1 -0.6 Curtis Pride
Eric Filia .246 .313 .325 78 .079 .272 3.6 -3 -0.6 Tim Leiper
Chris Mariscal .199 .264 .286 53 .087 .295 2.5 3 -0.7 Odie Davis
Jayson Werth .197 .280 .331 69 .135 .250 3.1 -5 -0.8 Brian Jordan
Kirk Nieuwenhuis .173 .272 .292 57 .119 .273 2.6 0 -0.9 Kevin Koslofski
Joey Curletta .196 .273 .355 72 .159 .278 3.2 -1 -1.0 Justin Drizos
Logan Taylor .195 .260 .313 58 .117 .288 2.6 -4 -1.3 Chad Spann
Anthony Jimenez .199 .241 .298 49 .098 .291 2.3 -2 -1.5 Jason Aspito
Joe Rizzo .194 .248 .284 48 .090 .271 2.4 0 -1.6 Mark Farris
Beau Amaral .210 .263 .277 51 .066 .289 2.5 -2 -1.7 Selwyn Langaigne
Adam Law .201 .252 .264 44 .063 .271 2.2 -4 -1.7 Chris Petersen

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Yusei Kikuchi L 28 9 8 4.05 25 25 142.3 136 64 17 56 131
Marco Gonzales L 27 9 9 4.16 26 26 142.7 155 66 18 32 112
Mike Leake R 31 9 9 4.30 27 27 161.3 180 77 20 29 104
Justus Sheffield L 23 7 7 4.27 29 22 116.0 113 55 12 57 103
Hisashi Iwakuma R 38 9 10 4.50 23 23 134.0 144 67 20 36 96
Shawn Armstrong R 28 4 2 3.25 61 0 63.7 51 23 5 31 75
Felix Hernandez R 33 9 10 4.60 25 24 137.0 138 70 21 48 107
Wade LeBlanc L 34 8 8 4.58 22 22 129.7 135 66 21 32 98
Adam Warren R 31 3 2 3.34 51 0 56.7 50 21 5 20 54
Gerson Bautista R 24 4 3 3.59 43 0 62.7 56 25 5 31 65
Erik Swanson R 25 5 5 4.70 24 21 107.3 108 56 18 35 104
Nick Vincent R 32 4 3 3.67 61 0 56.3 54 23 6 15 51
Zach Duke L 36 4 3 3.64 63 0 47.0 43 19 4 19 44
Roenis Elias L 30 6 7 4.60 29 14 94.0 97 48 11 40 72
Anthony Swarzak R 33 3 3 3.86 47 0 49.0 45 21 7 17 51
Ariel Miranda L 30 5 6 4.82 22 20 104.7 104 56 17 45 86
Justin Dunn R 23 7 8 4.76 23 23 123.0 127 65 14 66 102
Tommy Milone L 32 5 6 4.89 23 21 112.3 125 61 22 25 96
Max Povse R 25 6 7 4.71 20 19 101.3 108 53 13 42 80
Tyler Danish R 24 5 6 4.72 36 11 101.0 112 53 10 42 58
Sam Tuivailala R 26 3 3 3.74 44 0 45.7 44 19 4 18 43
Chasen Bradford R 29 3 2 3.90 49 0 55.3 60 24 6 13 35
Ryan Garton R 29 2 2 4.06 44 0 51.0 47 23 4 28 49
Brandon Brennan R 27 3 3 4.15 39 0 56.7 56 26 4 27 46
Rob Whalen R 25 7 9 4.79 23 22 112.7 120 60 15 43 80
Casey Lawrence R 31 6 8 4.93 29 17 118.7 138 65 18 29 78
Nick Rumbelow R 27 2 1 4.01 33 0 42.7 40 19 6 15 43
Darren McCaughan R 23 8 10 5.04 27 27 141.0 160 79 22 43 82
Zac Rosscup L 31 1 1 3.64 32 0 29.7 25 12 4 12 39
Cory Gearrin R 33 2 2 4.10 57 0 52.7 50 24 6 21 49
Ruben Alaniz R 28 3 3 4.39 40 1 55.3 55 27 7 26 52
Dan Altavilla R 26 4 4 4.30 50 0 52.3 48 25 7 26 53
David McKay R 24 4 4 4.34 44 0 58.0 57 28 8 23 56
Wyatt Mills R 24 4 4 4.38 44 0 49.3 50 24 6 18 41
Matt Tenuta L 25 3 3 4.45 44 0 60.7 62 30 7 27 47
Williams Perez R 28 7 9 4.95 22 22 111.0 118 61 12 53 80
Christian Bergman R 31 7 9 4.97 26 22 125.0 144 69 19 33 77
Marc Rzepczynski L 33 1 1 4.55 51 0 29.7 29 15 2 20 26
Matt Festa R 26 3 3 4.67 44 0 52.0 53 27 10 17 52
Ricardo Sanchez L 22 4 6 5.24 17 17 77.3 87 45 10 41 52
Tucker Healy R 29 1 2 5.02 32 0 37.7 37 21 5 20 34
Art Warren R 26 2 2 4.98 37 0 43.3 42 24 5 30 39
Ryan Cook R 32 2 3 4.86 50 0 46.3 46 25 7 24 46
Robinson Leyer R 26 4 4 4.98 47 0 56.0 56 31 7 33 50
Darin Gillies R 26 3 3 5.09 41 0 58.3 61 33 9 28 48
David Rollins L 29 2 3 5.67 22 2 33.3 38 21 7 11 24
Anthony Misiewicz L 24 6 9 5.50 24 24 111.3 130 68 22 39 78
Ross Detwiler L 33 3 5 5.60 20 13 80.3 95 50 13 33 47
Matt Walker R 24 3 4 5.31 41 0 59.3 65 35 9 30 45
Tayler Scott R 27 4 6 5.28 45 0 58.0 62 34 8 33 46
Bryan Evans R 32 5 8 5.82 20 20 106.7 126 69 26 29 80
Nathan Bannister R 25 5 10 6.85 26 23 128.7 169 98 36 42 67

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Yusei Kikuchi 616 8.28 3.54 1.07 .294 101 99 4.19 1.9 Pat Rapp
Marco Gonzales 609 7.07 2.02 1.14 .310 95 105 4.00 1.4 John Rheinecker
Mike Leake 685 5.80 1.62 1.12 .304 92 108 4.10 1.4 Jim Barr
Justus Sheffield 516 7.99 4.42 0.93 .299 96 104 4.35 1.3 Ken Chase
Hisashi Iwakuma 576 6.45 2.42 1.34 .295 91 110 4.55 1.1 Earthman Bill Lee
Shawn Armstrong 272 10.60 4.38 0.71 .291 126 79 3.42 1.0 Hector Carrasco
Felix Hernandez 596 7.03 3.15 1.38 .285 89 112 4.83 1.0 Aaron Sele
Wade LeBlanc 549 6.80 2.22 1.46 .289 89 112 4.55 0.9 Dave Roberts
Adam Warren 238 8.58 3.18 0.79 .287 123 82 3.56 0.9 Danny Kolb
Gerson Bautista 274 9.34 4.45 0.72 .300 114 88 3.74 0.8 Wayne Nix
Erik Swanson 463 8.72 2.93 1.51 .299 87 115 4.51 0.7 Chris Young
Nick Vincent 235 8.15 2.40 0.96 .296 108 93 3.58 0.6 Dale Mohorcic
Zach Duke 204 8.43 3.64 0.77 .293 112 89 3.85 0.6 Luis Arroyo
Roenis Elias 417 6.89 3.83 1.05 .298 89 112 4.58 0.6 Gene Bearden
Anthony Swarzak 208 9.37 3.12 1.29 .290 106 94 4.09 0.5 Bryan Corey
Ariel Miranda 459 7.39 3.87 1.46 .283 85 118 5.02 0.5 Steve Avery
Justin Dunn 561 7.46 4.83 1.02 .305 83 120 4.78 0.4 Rick Berg
Tommy Milone 482 7.69 2.00 1.76 .307 84 119 4.73 0.4 Terry Mulholland
Max Povse 452 7.11 3.73 1.15 .305 84 119 4.66 0.4 Sean White
Tyler Danish 454 5.17 3.74 0.89 .301 87 115 4.68 0.4 Tommie Sisk
Sam Tuivailala 198 8.47 3.55 0.79 .305 106 94 3.72 0.4 Sarge Connally
Chasen Bradford 238 5.69 2.11 0.98 .298 102 98 4.16 0.4 Pedro Borbon
Ryan Garton 226 8.65 4.94 0.71 .301 101 99 4.01 0.4 Bruce Dal Canton
Brandon Brennan 253 7.31 4.29 0.64 .302 99 102 4.09 0.4 Hal Reniff
Rob Whalen 499 6.39 3.43 1.20 .297 83 121 4.79 0.4 Jake Joseph
Casey Lawrence 520 5.92 2.20 1.37 .308 83 120 4.69 0.3 Don Wengert
Nick Rumbelow 182 9.07 3.16 1.27 .293 102 98 4.16 0.3 Jeremy Ward
Darren McCaughan 623 5.23 2.74 1.40 .296 81 123 5.12 0.3 Bobby Chouinard
Zac Rosscup 125 11.83 3.64 1.21 .304 109 92 3.59 0.3 Rod Scurry
Cory Gearrin 229 8.37 3.59 1.03 .295 97 103 4.19 0.3 Al Worthington
Ruben Alaniz 246 8.46 4.23 1.14 .304 93 107 4.49 0.2 Mike Bumstead
Dan Altavilla 230 9.11 4.47 1.20 .291 95 105 4.53 0.2 Mark Acre
David McKay 253 8.69 3.57 1.24 .301 94 106 4.36 0.2 Shawn Hill
Wyatt Mills 215 7.48 3.28 1.09 .299 93 107 4.35 0.2 Steve Gajkowski
Matt Tenuta 269 6.97 4.01 1.04 .297 92 109 4.58 0.2 Mike Cosgrove
Williams Perez 501 6.49 4.30 0.97 .303 80 125 4.71 0.2 Brian Harrison
Christian Bergman 547 5.54 2.38 1.37 .303 80 125 4.81 0.1 Pat Ahearne
Marc Rzepczynski 138 7.89 6.07 0.61 .307 90 111 4.50 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Matt Festa 225 9.00 2.94 1.73 .301 88 114 4.80 0.0 Travis Minix
Ricardo Sanchez 359 6.05 4.77 1.16 .307 76 132 5.27 -0.2 Derek Thompson
Tucker Healy 169 8.12 4.78 1.19 .296 82 123 4.82 -0.2 Ed Sprague
Art Warren 202 8.10 6.23 1.04 .296 82 122 5.13 -0.2 Ken Wright
Ryan Cook 209 8.94 4.66 1.36 .302 82 122 4.88 -0.2 Jim Dedrick
Robinson Leyer 256 8.04 5.30 1.13 .301 82 122 4.92 -0.2 Mike Zimmerman
Darin Gillies 263 7.41 4.32 1.39 .297 80 124 5.10 -0.3 Ervin Santana
David Rollins 148 6.48 2.97 1.89 .298 72 139 5.61 -0.3 Corey Hamman
Anthony Misiewicz 500 6.31 3.15 1.78 .304 74 134 5.53 -0.4 Jason Cromer
Ross Detwiler 366 5.27 3.70 1.46 .305 73 137 5.47 -0.4 Robert Lee
Matt Walker 271 6.83 4.55 1.37 .304 77 130 5.27 -0.5 Sean Green
Tayler Scott 268 7.14 5.12 1.24 .303 75 133 5.22 -0.5 Barry Hertzler
Bryan Evans 473 6.75 2.45 2.19 .301 68 147 5.80 -1.0 Brian Tollberg
Nathan Bannister 594 4.69 2.94 2.52 .302 60 168 6.91 -2.5 Kyle Middleton

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.





 

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

34 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Dan SzymborskiFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago

There is one lie in this piece: our depth charts don’t have Kikuchi in them, so I clicked that red ZiPS Override Switch and changed up the rotation depth chart on my end.

19
BelavonMember since 2016
7 years ago

“As disappointing as it feels, at this point, King Felix may be happy just to have a better end to his reign than Edward II did.”

The writing on this website is superb. Thanks for this gem Dan.

14
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Belavon

“I think the M’s beat the ZiPS projections by ten wins, at least until the managing editor returns my cat safe and sound.”

Dan Szymborski is the Mark Twain of modern baseball writing.

10
WoundedSprinterMember since 2018
7 years ago
Reply to  Belavon

I was expecting Andronikos Comnenus, given previous Byzantine references. That one is at least well-attested, unlike the Edward II thing, which was a confection of Christopher Marlowe, repeated by Winston Churchill. (For the record, he was probably starved to death in a dungeon, much like any other English king who inconveniently survived their usurpation.) I actually preferred the turkey burger comparison, which is sadly a bit too apt for King Felix.

It’s a rotten outcome right now. The man was on the cusp of election to the Hall, and he’s actually going backwards in that regard. I would absolutely love to see a couple of resurgent years at 2 WAR os thereabouts … he’s been a blast to watch.

0
Dan SzymborskiFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  WoundedSprinter

I’d argue that being starved to death isn’t *that* much better than, well, the rumored end. It’s not great fun being Rothesay or Maud de Braose.

1
JoserMember since 2021
7 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Or the ignominy of Richard III, buried under a parking lot like some mob-connected union boss.

-1
RotoholicMember since 2016
7 years ago

*Drake meme*

2018 Mariners: Gordon Beckham

2019 Mariners: Gordon-Beckham

7
Regression is Mean
7 years ago

Haniger may be happy to have Dye as an offensive comp, but man, Dye gives Gary Sheffield a run in OF incompetence.

2
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago

This further reinforces my opinion that the Mariners should at least figure out how much Gonzales will return in a trade. You could imagine a team like the Reds or Padres, who seem to be hyper-aggressive, would be willing to give up something really big for him.

I’m sure they’re still trying to figure out if they can trade Leake or Encarnacion (or Bruce or Healy), and that would be good if they can do it, but since the market for DH’s seems to be over now and Leake has a no-trade clause I’m not sure they can do either one without eating a ton of money.

-2
rhswanzey
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Gonzales was 20th in pitcher WAR last season, and it was especially quiet.

6
sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

You know someone out there is buying the 2018 performance and not the ZiPs projection. But I think that someone might be the Mariners.

4
rhswanzey
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

They’re the same thing. 4.00 ERA in 2018, 4.16 per ZiPS in 2019. He got a big bump from outperforming his peripherals, and wouldn’t get that with bWAR (2.5 b vs 3.6 f)

Maybe he has Ricky Nolasco syndrome, and can do it every year 🙂

0
Goms
7 years ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

I think they’ll need him to prove his performance was real in the first half of ’19 in order to get a return worth considering.

0
mattswinkey
7 years ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

This may just be a fanboy delusion but Marco will be a peripheral beater. Has both swing and miss and contact management ability, and controls the running game. Outstanding pickoff move and defense. Consider it done. He’s pre peak, not ready to be traded.

2
Redneck Redbird
7 years ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

Could be another Cardinals’ (Braves traded him for a fortune) Shelby Miller situation if Gonzales has another season like 2018.

1
Goms
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Haniger is the guy they should trade. Seems like the Braves (the best match) weren’t really willing to give up prospects yet though.

-2
JoserMember since 2021
7 years ago
Reply to  Goms

I think if Jerry could get what he thinks (probably correctly) what Haniger is worth, he’d have already done the deal. Being in tear-down mode doesn’t mean you sell everything at a loss.

2
Eminor3rdMember since 2019
7 years ago

Huh. Who knew Earthman Bill Lee was better than Spaceman Bill Lee?

7
mikejuntMember
7 years ago

I hope you are all ready for 25 years of Jay Bruce baseball instruction videos.

2
srpst23Member since 2025
7 years ago

Interesting that Dan Vogelbach is listed for 128 games/439 ABs and isn’t listed on the top graphic anywhere. Is 1b/DH just going to be a 3 man rotation of Healy, Bruce, and Vogelbach?

-2
seattlefan68Member since 2026
7 years ago
Reply to  srpst23

“One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.”

4
LightenUpFGMember since 2018
7 years ago

I like that ZiPS sticks it in Dipoto’s face and says “You know WHAT? You tell that good-for-nuthin’ hopeful retiree named Ichiro to suck it up and play in 76 games this season. You can’t leave 12 runs on the table!” You tell ’em, ZiPS.

3
dl80Member since 2026
7 years ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

Can we talk about the fact that Ichiro is only a few months younger than Carlos Delgado?? Who retired in 2009?

9
LightenUpFGMember since 2018
7 years ago
Reply to  dl80

That is stunning. Hitting, speed and health are the key to a long baseball life, apparently.

0
AmpersandMember since 2025
7 years ago

Wait, what is Jayson Werth doing here?

1
Dan SzymborskiFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  Ampersand

His most recent team.

3
Pwn Shop
7 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

So he will be here in perpetuity? There must be thousands of retired players whose last team was SDP.

-2
Dan SzymborskiFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  Pwn Shop

No, I give everyone a year after retirement or move to NPB/KBO.

2
pedeysRSox
7 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Which means Ryan Cook and Hisashi Iwakuma should both be off the list next year (?) as they went to the NPB this offseason.

0
Kevbot034
7 years ago

Well, Mallex Smith and Dee Gordon should have some fun running around at least. Fans have that to look forward to.

1
Jetsy Extrano
7 years ago

Wow, the computer’s a Mallex believer. What’s his projected BABIP?

0
rhswanzey
7 years ago
Reply to  Jetsy Extrano

.328 per the table above

2
JackAbramoffMember since 2018
7 years ago

http://www.ianmortimer.com/EdwardII/death.htm

Edward II didnt die in Berkeley Castle! Hill I’m willing to die on.

0
NATS FanMember since 2018
7 years ago

Poor Mallex Smith. Lqquis Polonia was the worst fielding outfielder I ever saw play in person. He turned so many singles into extra bases I couldn’t believe he was allowed to play. He was fast and could hit, but it he was a clown on his good days in the field. Let’s hope Mallex hits like him,but fields better.

0