2019 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners by Dan Szymborski January 23, 2019 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. ZiPS Projections 20192018ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters Jerry Dipoto’s may be a one-man Hot Stove League, but at least based on the roster as of now — everybody could be traded by March — Seattle seems to still be in something of a no man’s land when it comes to rebuild. The Mariners aren’t actually bad, but it’s hard to envision them being that relevant in the AL West. There are a lot of older players here, but not many who really have all that much flip-potential. Sure, you can play some combination of Ryon Healy and Jay Bruce at first, or shift Edwin Encarnacion to first and make Bruce the full-time DH, or play Tim Beckham more than J.P. Crawford, but to what end? ZiPS is still rooting for a Kyle Seager comeback, but I’m a little less sanguine at this point. On the plus side, it thinks Mitch Haniger is for real and sees at least some value in Dan Vogelbach, even if the Mariners don’t seem to. And yes, I know Ichiro is pretty much just coming back for the M’s and A’s games in Japan, but ZiPS doesn’t know those circumstances. Pitchers The Sad Tale of Felix Hernandez, as told by his yearly top comps: 2013: Greg Maddux 2014: Roy Oswalt 2015: Mike Mussina 2016: Kevin Brown 2017: Dave Stieb 2018: Mike LaCoss 2019: Aaron Sele As disappointing as it feels, at this point, King Felix may be happy just to have a better end to his reign than Edward II did. The rotation lost its high end in the short-term with the James Paxton trade, but while the pitchers at the top have similar projections to the Orioles’ two top starters — a damning comp if ever there was one — it’s also a deeper group. They’re not likely to be good, but the Mariners have just enough of them that the situation isn’t unbearably bleak. That’s a bit how I think of a turkey burger; I wouldn’t seek one out, but hey, it’s actual food. There are a lot of unknowns with two of Seattle’s pitchers — Yusei Kikuchi and Justus Sheffield — so there’s legitimate upside here. Will it be enough to make the team a contender? No, but if we’re just talking about 2019 wins rather than the big picture planning stuff needed for the next good Mariners team, Seattle going .500 wouldn’t be all that odd, especially since ZiPS still projects the bullpen as adequate, which is probably the system’s biggest source of disagreement with Steamer when it comes to this roster. Bench and Prospects There are essentially two prospects in the high minors who ZiPS likes over the long-term: Sheffield and Justin Dunn. Jarred Kelenic hasn’t left rookie ball yet, so I don’t think we’re at the stage where ZiPS has much to contribute. But if Kelenic matches the .286/.371/.468 line from his debut at higher levels, I’m sure the computer will like him just fine. After that? Pretty much nothing as far as ZiPS is concerned. It sees Shed Long as a role player who might have some pop, and Braden Bishop has defensive value, but there’s little algorithmic interest in players like Kyle Lewis or Evan White. Lewis in particular still hasn’t had a breakout with the bat and the knee injuries cloud whether he’ll be able to play centerfield, which is probably a necessity for his future value. One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site. Batters – Counting Stats Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Mitch Haniger R 28 RF 151 559 80 146 31 3 24 84 59 147 9 4 Kyle Seager L 31 3B 147 558 67 137 33 1 22 82 48 123 2 3 Mallex Smith L 26 CF 138 476 60 123 21 9 4 37 43 109 37 11 Edwin Encarnacion R 36 DH 127 463 68 109 17 1 26 85 68 126 2 0 Dan Vogelbach L 26 1B 128 439 64 109 19 0 19 65 71 111 1 1 Domingo Santana R 26 RF 136 437 58 101 19 1 22 57 60 187 6 3 J.P. Crawford L 24 SS 123 429 52 95 16 4 8 43 55 124 6 3 Dee Gordon L 31 2B 141 577 75 164 18 7 3 33 18 88 39 14 Denard Span L 35 LF 121 438 60 113 21 4 10 48 43 73 9 5 Jay Bruce L 32 RF 119 429 52 100 22 2 19 69 46 119 3 3 Dylan Moore R 26 3B 121 430 49 91 19 3 10 41 35 114 16 6 Omar Narvaez L 27 C 94 290 30 74 11 1 6 24 34 58 0 1 Shed Long L 23 2B 125 468 56 107 18 4 12 49 43 146 13 5 Cameron Maybin R 32 CF 118 379 48 92 17 2 7 38 41 91 16 6 Tim Beckham R 29 SS 117 415 48 98 18 3 13 46 30 125 3 3 Ryon Healy R 27 1B 143 553 62 139 25 1 24 80 28 135 0 1 Kaleb Cowart B 27 3B 128 437 49 95 23 3 9 48 34 130 11 3 David Freitas R 30 C 79 270 29 64 15 1 4 24 20 60 0 0 Braden Bishop R 25 CF 101 420 47 95 16 1 5 31 29 102 7 3 Austin Nola R 29 C 87 295 29 66 15 0 2 25 25 61 2 1 Mike Marjama R 29 C 75 275 29 63 16 2 7 32 13 63 2 2 Tito Polo R 24 CF 93 359 41 82 12 4 7 32 23 107 24 10 Andrew Aplin L 28 RF 89 310 36 65 12 1 4 26 35 78 7 3 Kris Negron R 33 2B 123 382 43 79 11 3 10 36 28 137 10 3 Ian Miller L 27 CF 119 472 49 110 14 3 2 31 30 108 29 7 Jose Lobaton B 34 C 52 152 15 31 5 1 4 17 17 45 1 0 Joe DeCarlo R 25 C 85 310 36 57 12 1 10 33 30 119 1 1 Tim Lopes R 25 2B 121 453 44 104 18 2 3 34 30 103 16 9 Donnie Walton B 25 2B 106 405 43 88 18 2 6 34 31 90 8 5 Kyle Lewis R 23 CF 87 341 34 74 16 0 10 37 21 117 2 0 Dom Thompson-Williams L 24 CF 99 369 42 78 13 2 13 39 25 134 13 10 Daniel Muno B 30 3B 77 243 26 49 10 1 3 19 29 80 3 4 Dario Pizzano L 28 LF 107 397 42 94 18 3 9 42 28 67 1 1 Evan White R 23 1B 125 510 55 113 21 4 12 53 35 137 3 4 Jake Fraley L 24 LF 67 245 26 52 11 4 3 23 19 71 10 9 Yonathan Mendoza B 25 SS 98 350 37 80 10 1 2 22 29 65 4 1 Orlando Calixte R 27 SS 126 431 46 95 15 3 11 44 25 121 13 3 Dustin Ackley L 31 LF 95 306 33 66 13 2 5 28 31 58 1 1 Ichiro Suzuki L 45 LF 76 128 12 29 3 0 1 8 9 24 0 0 Eric Filia L 26 RF 96 378 42 93 16 1 4 32 35 47 3 3 Chris Mariscal R 26 2B 117 448 44 89 14 2 7 37 36 163 4 2 Jayson Werth R 40 LF 49 178 20 35 9 0 5 18 19 53 1 1 Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 31 RF 98 277 30 48 13 1 6 26 36 117 4 2 Joey Curletta R 25 1B 126 465 54 91 21 1 17 60 49 182 2 1 Logan Taylor R 25 3B 116 435 45 85 16 1 11 44 34 167 4 4 Anthony Jimenez R 23 CF 105 396 35 79 16 1 7 34 17 142 13 9 Joe Rizzo L 21 3B 128 500 44 97 17 2 8 43 35 164 5 1 Beau Amaral L 28 RF 97 347 34 73 12 1 3 27 22 102 6 3 Adam Law R 29 2B 101 349 30 70 14 1 2 23 19 96 6 3 Batters – Rate Stats Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Mitch Haniger .261 .339 .456 118 .195 .314 5.7 6 3.6 Jermaine Dye Kyle Seager .246 .310 .427 102 .181 .278 4.7 2 2.4 Todd Zeile Mallex Smith .258 .325 .366 92 .107 .328 4.7 4 2.2 Luis Polonia Edwin Encarnacion .235 .337 .445 115 .210 .267 5.3 0 2.1 Ben Oglivie Dan Vogelbach .248 .353 .421 114 .173 .291 5.3 -1 1.9 Mario Valdez Domingo Santana .231 .329 .430 109 .199 .346 5.0 -2 1.5 Ron Swoboda J.P. Crawford .221 .316 .333 81 .112 .293 3.7 2 1.4 Rance Mulliniks Dee Gordon .284 .311 .355 85 .071 .331 4.4 -1 1.2 Fernando Vina Denard Span .258 .328 .393 99 .135 .290 4.7 -3 0.8 John Stone Jay Bruce .233 .307 .427 101 .193 .278 4.5 -3 0.7 Tom Brunansky Dylan Moore .212 .282 .340 72 .128 .265 3.4 5 0.7 Mike Moriarty Omar Narvaez .255 .334 .362 94 .107 .301 4.3 -6 0.7 Mike LaValliere Shed Long .229 .298 .361 82 .132 .306 3.8 -2 0.6 Jason Donald Cameron Maybin .243 .318 .354 87 .111 .302 4.1 -4 0.6 Ryan Freel Tim Beckham .236 .291 .388 86 .152 .307 3.9 -6 0.6 Chris Woodward Ryon Healy .251 .290 .430 96 .179 .292 4.5 -3 0.4 Reggie Montgomery Kaleb Cowart .217 .275 .346 71 .128 .289 3.4 3 0.4 Mike Turgeon David Freitas .237 .295 .344 77 .107 .291 3.6 -2 0.4 Yorvit Torrealba Braden Bishop .226 .284 .305 64 .079 .288 3.0 6 0.3 Rodney Nealeigh Austin Nola .224 .291 .295 64 .071 .276 3.0 2 0.3 Dave Van Gorder Mike Marjama .229 .273 .378 78 .149 .273 3.5 -3 0.2 Yamid Haad Tito Polo .228 .289 .343 75 .114 .306 3.6 -2 0.2 Carlos Gomez Andrew Aplin .210 .293 .294 64 .084 .268 3.0 7 0.1 Michael Tullier Kris Negron .207 .271 .330 66 .123 .294 3.2 2 0.1 Dave Matranga Ian Miller .233 .284 .288 60 .055 .298 3.2 4 0.1 Keiunta Span Jose Lobaton .204 .287 .329 71 .125 .262 3.3 -1 0.0 Keith McDonald Joe DeCarlo .184 .272 .326 65 .142 .260 2.9 -2 -0.1 Marc Sullivan Tim Lopes .230 .280 .298 61 .068 .291 2.9 5 -0.1 Ron Marigny Donnie Walton .217 .282 .316 66 .099 .265 3.0 0 -0.2 Greg Fulton Kyle Lewis .217 .264 .352 69 .135 .299 3.3 -2 -0.3 Jeff Keitges Dom Thompson-Williams .211 .268 .363 73 .152 .293 3.1 -2 -0.3 Shawn Jeter Daniel Muno .202 .291 .288 62 .086 .288 2.6 0 -0.3 Douglas Bernier Dario Pizzano .237 .292 .365 81 .128 .265 3.7 -3 -0.4 Tim Norrid Evan White .222 .275 .349 72 .127 .280 3.2 6 -0.4 Greg Litton Jake Fraley .212 .274 .327 66 .114 .287 2.7 3 -0.4 Jesus Hernandez Yonathan Mendoza .229 .288 .280 59 .051 .276 2.9 -3 -0.5 Mark Germann Orlando Calixte .220 .263 .346 67 .125 .281 3.3 -7 -0.6 Jason Bowers Dustin Ackley .216 .287 .320 69 .105 .251 3.1 0 -0.6 Ken Ramos Ichiro Suzuki .227 .277 .273 54 .047 .272 2.6 -1 -0.6 Curtis Pride Eric Filia .246 .313 .325 78 .079 .272 3.6 -3 -0.6 Tim Leiper Chris Mariscal .199 .264 .286 53 .087 .295 2.5 3 -0.7 Odie Davis Jayson Werth .197 .280 .331 69 .135 .250 3.1 -5 -0.8 Brian Jordan Kirk Nieuwenhuis .173 .272 .292 57 .119 .273 2.6 0 -0.9 Kevin Koslofski Joey Curletta .196 .273 .355 72 .159 .278 3.2 -1 -1.0 Justin Drizos Logan Taylor .195 .260 .313 58 .117 .288 2.6 -4 -1.3 Chad Spann Anthony Jimenez .199 .241 .298 49 .098 .291 2.3 -2 -1.5 Jason Aspito Joe Rizzo .194 .248 .284 48 .090 .271 2.4 0 -1.6 Mark Farris Beau Amaral .210 .263 .277 51 .066 .289 2.5 -2 -1.7 Selwyn Langaigne Adam Law .201 .252 .264 44 .063 .271 2.2 -4 -1.7 Chris Petersen Pitchers – Counting Stats Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO Yusei Kikuchi L 28 9 8 4.05 25 25 142.3 136 64 17 56 131 Marco Gonzales L 27 9 9 4.16 26 26 142.7 155 66 18 32 112 Mike Leake R 31 9 9 4.30 27 27 161.3 180 77 20 29 104 Justus Sheffield L 23 7 7 4.27 29 22 116.0 113 55 12 57 103 Hisashi Iwakuma R 38 9 10 4.50 23 23 134.0 144 67 20 36 96 Shawn Armstrong R 28 4 2 3.25 61 0 63.7 51 23 5 31 75 Felix Hernandez R 33 9 10 4.60 25 24 137.0 138 70 21 48 107 Wade LeBlanc L 34 8 8 4.58 22 22 129.7 135 66 21 32 98 Adam Warren R 31 3 2 3.34 51 0 56.7 50 21 5 20 54 Gerson Bautista R 24 4 3 3.59 43 0 62.7 56 25 5 31 65 Erik Swanson R 25 5 5 4.70 24 21 107.3 108 56 18 35 104 Nick Vincent R 32 4 3 3.67 61 0 56.3 54 23 6 15 51 Zach Duke L 36 4 3 3.64 63 0 47.0 43 19 4 19 44 Roenis Elias L 30 6 7 4.60 29 14 94.0 97 48 11 40 72 Anthony Swarzak R 33 3 3 3.86 47 0 49.0 45 21 7 17 51 Ariel Miranda L 30 5 6 4.82 22 20 104.7 104 56 17 45 86 Justin Dunn R 23 7 8 4.76 23 23 123.0 127 65 14 66 102 Tommy Milone L 32 5 6 4.89 23 21 112.3 125 61 22 25 96 Max Povse R 25 6 7 4.71 20 19 101.3 108 53 13 42 80 Tyler Danish R 24 5 6 4.72 36 11 101.0 112 53 10 42 58 Sam Tuivailala R 26 3 3 3.74 44 0 45.7 44 19 4 18 43 Chasen Bradford R 29 3 2 3.90 49 0 55.3 60 24 6 13 35 Ryan Garton R 29 2 2 4.06 44 0 51.0 47 23 4 28 49 Brandon Brennan R 27 3 3 4.15 39 0 56.7 56 26 4 27 46 Rob Whalen R 25 7 9 4.79 23 22 112.7 120 60 15 43 80 Casey Lawrence R 31 6 8 4.93 29 17 118.7 138 65 18 29 78 Nick Rumbelow R 27 2 1 4.01 33 0 42.7 40 19 6 15 43 Darren McCaughan R 23 8 10 5.04 27 27 141.0 160 79 22 43 82 Zac Rosscup L 31 1 1 3.64 32 0 29.7 25 12 4 12 39 Cory Gearrin R 33 2 2 4.10 57 0 52.7 50 24 6 21 49 Ruben Alaniz R 28 3 3 4.39 40 1 55.3 55 27 7 26 52 Dan Altavilla R 26 4 4 4.30 50 0 52.3 48 25 7 26 53 David McKay R 24 4 4 4.34 44 0 58.0 57 28 8 23 56 Wyatt Mills R 24 4 4 4.38 44 0 49.3 50 24 6 18 41 Matt Tenuta L 25 3 3 4.45 44 0 60.7 62 30 7 27 47 Williams Perez R 28 7 9 4.95 22 22 111.0 118 61 12 53 80 Christian Bergman R 31 7 9 4.97 26 22 125.0 144 69 19 33 77 Marc Rzepczynski L 33 1 1 4.55 51 0 29.7 29 15 2 20 26 Matt Festa R 26 3 3 4.67 44 0 52.0 53 27 10 17 52 Ricardo Sanchez L 22 4 6 5.24 17 17 77.3 87 45 10 41 52 Tucker Healy R 29 1 2 5.02 32 0 37.7 37 21 5 20 34 Art Warren R 26 2 2 4.98 37 0 43.3 42 24 5 30 39 Ryan Cook R 32 2 3 4.86 50 0 46.3 46 25 7 24 46 Robinson Leyer R 26 4 4 4.98 47 0 56.0 56 31 7 33 50 Darin Gillies R 26 3 3 5.09 41 0 58.3 61 33 9 28 48 David Rollins L 29 2 3 5.67 22 2 33.3 38 21 7 11 24 Anthony Misiewicz L 24 6 9 5.50 24 24 111.3 130 68 22 39 78 Ross Detwiler L 33 3 5 5.60 20 13 80.3 95 50 13 33 47 Matt Walker R 24 3 4 5.31 41 0 59.3 65 35 9 30 45 Tayler Scott R 27 4 6 5.28 45 0 58.0 62 34 8 33 46 Bryan Evans R 32 5 8 5.82 20 20 106.7 126 69 26 29 80 Nathan Bannister R 25 5 10 6.85 26 23 128.7 169 98 36 42 67 Pitchers – Rate Stats Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp Yusei Kikuchi 616 8.28 3.54 1.07 .294 101 99 4.19 1.9 Pat Rapp Marco Gonzales 609 7.07 2.02 1.14 .310 95 105 4.00 1.4 John Rheinecker Mike Leake 685 5.80 1.62 1.12 .304 92 108 4.10 1.4 Jim Barr Justus Sheffield 516 7.99 4.42 0.93 .299 96 104 4.35 1.3 Ken Chase Hisashi Iwakuma 576 6.45 2.42 1.34 .295 91 110 4.55 1.1 Earthman Bill Lee Shawn Armstrong 272 10.60 4.38 0.71 .291 126 79 3.42 1.0 Hector Carrasco Felix Hernandez 596 7.03 3.15 1.38 .285 89 112 4.83 1.0 Aaron Sele Wade LeBlanc 549 6.80 2.22 1.46 .289 89 112 4.55 0.9 Dave Roberts Adam Warren 238 8.58 3.18 0.79 .287 123 82 3.56 0.9 Danny Kolb Gerson Bautista 274 9.34 4.45 0.72 .300 114 88 3.74 0.8 Wayne Nix Erik Swanson 463 8.72 2.93 1.51 .299 87 115 4.51 0.7 Chris Young Nick Vincent 235 8.15 2.40 0.96 .296 108 93 3.58 0.6 Dale Mohorcic Zach Duke 204 8.43 3.64 0.77 .293 112 89 3.85 0.6 Luis Arroyo Roenis Elias 417 6.89 3.83 1.05 .298 89 112 4.58 0.6 Gene Bearden Anthony Swarzak 208 9.37 3.12 1.29 .290 106 94 4.09 0.5 Bryan Corey Ariel Miranda 459 7.39 3.87 1.46 .283 85 118 5.02 0.5 Steve Avery Justin Dunn 561 7.46 4.83 1.02 .305 83 120 4.78 0.4 Rick Berg Tommy Milone 482 7.69 2.00 1.76 .307 84 119 4.73 0.4 Terry Mulholland Max Povse 452 7.11 3.73 1.15 .305 84 119 4.66 0.4 Sean White Tyler Danish 454 5.17 3.74 0.89 .301 87 115 4.68 0.4 Tommie Sisk Sam Tuivailala 198 8.47 3.55 0.79 .305 106 94 3.72 0.4 Sarge Connally Chasen Bradford 238 5.69 2.11 0.98 .298 102 98 4.16 0.4 Pedro Borbon Ryan Garton 226 8.65 4.94 0.71 .301 101 99 4.01 0.4 Bruce Dal Canton Brandon Brennan 253 7.31 4.29 0.64 .302 99 102 4.09 0.4 Hal Reniff Rob Whalen 499 6.39 3.43 1.20 .297 83 121 4.79 0.4 Jake Joseph Casey Lawrence 520 5.92 2.20 1.37 .308 83 120 4.69 0.3 Don Wengert Nick Rumbelow 182 9.07 3.16 1.27 .293 102 98 4.16 0.3 Jeremy Ward Darren McCaughan 623 5.23 2.74 1.40 .296 81 123 5.12 0.3 Bobby Chouinard Zac Rosscup 125 11.83 3.64 1.21 .304 109 92 3.59 0.3 Rod Scurry Cory Gearrin 229 8.37 3.59 1.03 .295 97 103 4.19 0.3 Al Worthington Ruben Alaniz 246 8.46 4.23 1.14 .304 93 107 4.49 0.2 Mike Bumstead Dan Altavilla 230 9.11 4.47 1.20 .291 95 105 4.53 0.2 Mark Acre David McKay 253 8.69 3.57 1.24 .301 94 106 4.36 0.2 Shawn Hill Wyatt Mills 215 7.48 3.28 1.09 .299 93 107 4.35 0.2 Steve Gajkowski Matt Tenuta 269 6.97 4.01 1.04 .297 92 109 4.58 0.2 Mike Cosgrove Williams Perez 501 6.49 4.30 0.97 .303 80 125 4.71 0.2 Brian Harrison Christian Bergman 547 5.54 2.38 1.37 .303 80 125 4.81 0.1 Pat Ahearne Marc Rzepczynski 138 7.89 6.07 0.61 .307 90 111 4.50 0.0 Marshall Bridges Matt Festa 225 9.00 2.94 1.73 .301 88 114 4.80 0.0 Travis Minix Ricardo Sanchez 359 6.05 4.77 1.16 .307 76 132 5.27 -0.2 Derek Thompson Tucker Healy 169 8.12 4.78 1.19 .296 82 123 4.82 -0.2 Ed Sprague Art Warren 202 8.10 6.23 1.04 .296 82 122 5.13 -0.2 Ken Wright Ryan Cook 209 8.94 4.66 1.36 .302 82 122 4.88 -0.2 Jim Dedrick Robinson Leyer 256 8.04 5.30 1.13 .301 82 122 4.92 -0.2 Mike Zimmerman Darin Gillies 263 7.41 4.32 1.39 .297 80 124 5.10 -0.3 Ervin Santana David Rollins 148 6.48 2.97 1.89 .298 72 139 5.61 -0.3 Corey Hamman Anthony Misiewicz 500 6.31 3.15 1.78 .304 74 134 5.53 -0.4 Jason Cromer Ross Detwiler 366 5.27 3.70 1.46 .305 73 137 5.47 -0.4 Robert Lee Matt Walker 271 6.83 4.55 1.37 .304 77 130 5.27 -0.5 Sean Green Tayler Scott 268 7.14 5.12 1.24 .303 75 133 5.22 -0.5 Barry Hertzler Bryan Evans 473 6.75 2.45 2.19 .301 68 147 5.80 -1.0 Brian Tollberg Nathan Bannister 594 4.69 2.94 2.52 .302 60 168 6.91 -2.5 Kyle Middleton Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA. Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. We hoped you liked reading 2019 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners by Dan Szymborski! Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage. Support FanGraphs