Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/23/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Scout call ran late but your next few lists are mostly done now. To your questions

Kiley McDaniel: Oh and in case you’re new here, I’m not gonna comment on other top 100 lists. The comment will be our own list, which is coming later

Bogs: Toss up: Nathaniel Lowe or Peter Alfonso?

Kiley McDaniel: Peter Alonso

Rays for Days: Hi Kiley! Is Wander Franco more so Manny Machado? or More so Carlos Correa?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s neither b/c people will be comparing prospects to him for awhile. Maybe Jose Ramirez is the closest thing in the big league like him?

Pip: You mention that Brandon Lowe is one of the safest prospects in the top 100. What is a realistic ceiling though? Does he have a chance to hit 30 home runs?

Kiley McDaniel: Well like everyone in the big leagues now apparently has a chance to do that. I’d say expect 15-20, maybe some 20-25 seasons, but 30 obviously is on the board

SAM: In a vacuum, signing Nick Markakis is an excellent value deal, but the Braves have now said that this move will force Acuña to move to the 4 hole. How do you weigh the value of signing a player cheap vs the affect of it causing your best player to lose ABs?

Kiley McDaniel: This week in Braves fans creating problems where they don’t exist

Jessup: Which organization produces the most major league arms on a consistent basis? Seems bully’s are littered with ex Yankees farmhands

Kiley McDaniel: Yep that’s the first one I thought of

Disco Stupid: Is Cuban player Tartabull also free to sign with mlb clubs? What kind of talent is he?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have notes on him and there’s like dozens of Cubans floating around the Dominican that never sign, so until I’m told a Cuban is one to pay attention to, I assume they’re one of those dozens

Dmitry: thoughts on Shed Long for Stowers? Why would the Yanks trade a 50fv for a 35fv??

Kiley McDaniel: Tweeted a number of things about it and Jeff also wrote about it using mine/Eric’s notes. Stowers is a solid 40 now and some teams (NYY seems to be one) would call him a 45, using out scale

Kiley McDaniel: and no 40-man concerns is a big deal for NYY, too

Steve: Can you please explain why baseball rules do not allow trading of draft picks beyond the compensation picks?

Kiley McDaniel: Bc back in the day owners thought the Eli Manning situation would happen all the time but it turns out even in football it happens like every 15 years

Kiley McDaniel: It’s insane and dumb and should change but is also not high on the list of things owners/players care about or see as broken

Draught Guy: What’s going on with Luis Medina? Is he ever going to put it together?

Kiley McDaniel: Same insane stuff, same maddening command issues. Still early.

Jeff: Franco and Brujal sound amazing. At this stage how much better are these two than Lindor and Ramirez?

Kiley McDaniel: Ramirez wasn’t really a prospect when in Double-A, so most guys we talk about were ahead of him at that stage. Lindor was a top-10 pick at the age Franco is now a top-5 prospect in the game, so Franco seems ahead.

Kiley McDaniel: But, and I can’t stress this enough, players don’t develop at a linear rate

GPT: Have you heard any of the top 2019 J2 players linked to the Giants? I think at this point last year, Marco Luciano was already linked.

Kiley McDaniel: So basically all of the good 2019s have been done for awhile, the top tier 2020s are all done and teams are already locking up 2021s. One director said to me that he knows some teams are scouting 2022s to try to get a leg up. We’ll have more comprehensive J2 coverage when that signing day is closer

Will: Enjoyed your Yolbert Sanchez piece yesterday – any ballpark of his FV? Sounded like at least a 50

Kiley McDaniel: He hasn’t been scouted much, so it will be much clearer in a few weeks. I would guess a low 45 FV right now

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Can you tell us more about the makeup algorithms mentioned in the novel you and Eric wrote about Rays prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s more just quantifying things that normally aren’t quantified, not some super computer that tells your future. Teams usually have a personality test and scouts give makeup grades on various categories. you could add a few more components and call it an algorithm

Go Twins: Hi, you mentioned a sleeper in the TB system last week (a 2017 J2 40FV).  I see Jelfry Marte and Alberto Figuereo that both meet that criteria.  Which one were you talking about?

Kiley McDaniel: Figuereo having similarities to Brujan is what I was talking about

PM: With the new ways teams are using bullpens is “reliever risk” no longer carrying the same negative connotation in prospect circles? Or is it just elevating the value of the legit starter profile

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, head whack HS pitchers with reliever risk aren’t seen as bad of a bet as they used to be

Jimmy Jimmy: What level of affiliated ball is analogous to the Dominican Winter League?  AA? AAA? MLB++??

Kiley McDaniel: Asked someone about this recently and he said Triple-A but it varies a lot depending on if it’s the time of year with lots of big leaguers or it’s early and the good players haven’t come down ye

Sauce Larry Walka: Does Brandon Lowe get meaningful PT this year or is TB just teasing us like usual?

Kiley McDaniel: I think there’s a trade to be made here b/c they’re losing some value in having this much MI talent

Eagle: The Rays list was remarkable. Is that a product of elite scouting or elite player development? Likely a mix, but what do they do that differentiates from other orgs?

Kiley McDaniel: They’re both good at signing amateur players and at least solid at developing them but importantly are always adding prospects, even when they’re competing. There’s some clubs that would have good systems if they kept everyone they signed and only added prospects, but they are lower end b/c they only sell

Cole: Even though Lucius Fox is not in the top 10 of a loaded Rays system, does he have a chance for top 150 prospects this season? Maybe by a midseason update?

Kiley McDaniel: 50’s or better have usually been about 130 or 135 for us, so 45+’s usually stretch into the 160s

Odell: The Rays list was long enough, but was interested to not see a mention of Jake Cronenworth. Any shot he could become a utility player that can also be a mop up bullpen arm? He hasn’t pitched in pro ball, but he was great at Michigan

Kiley McDaniel: I believe he was passed over in the Rule 5, so if a guy is already on the fringy list to be mentioned, that doesn’t help

Mostly rational Braves fan: With the Markakis signing done and the 40 man full, the opening day payroll is projected to be less than the last two  years (not sure how much, I’m just repeating what I’ve read on other sites). Do you see this as a value signing that fell in their laps and they’ll use the savings to spend elsewhere on the roster? OR, could this be Liberty Media seeing a very strong NL East which means a smaller chance of repeating? A less successful season means some erosion in fan interest and fewer butts in seats, all of which leading to smaller revenues so they have imposed a lower payroll cost to offset to ensure profit goals? (It says mostly right in my signature…)

Kiley McDaniel: The clubs with money have a tremendous power and you’ve seen moves where clubs do things to get more power, rather in FA or trade leverage. PHI added McCutchen at a weird time so they didn’t have tons of money and lot of holes to fill. The JT Realmuto sweepstakes keeps changing as clubs fill their holes then we try to figure out which team with no holes could most easily integrate him into their team. I think ATL had lots of possible moves, they’re at the opening of a window and chose to not act too aggressively. Standing pat for one more year of prospect development is the easiest of the correct answers, so that’s what they seemed to have chosen

5’11″phobia: How likely is it that Andrew Vaughn stays at 1B

Kiley McDaniel: pretty good chance. he’s not a butcher over there but isn’t exactly traditionally athletic or projectable right now, so it could move more to DH

Assume form: If Mason Denaburg proves himself healthy next year and makes it to A+ ball, is he a 50/55? Higher? What do you think his ETA is?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll have a quick hook to 50 if he has like 5-7 good starts and stays healthy

Detective Box: Any comparable prospects of the past with the contact issues of Jesus Sanchez that come to mind?

Kiley McDaniel: Avisail Garcia is one

Darragh: Loving the prospect lists. Great work. Blue Jays coming this week?

Kiley McDaniel: I think NYY and BAL will go first

Lava: With the Braves turnover in scouting, why not hand over the keys to Joe Jordan after bringing him in? Was this just a comfort thing with AA?

Kiley McDaniel: Dana Brown was rumored to be coming to ATL right after Alex got there (or do I say here since I’m in ATL the city?). So it wasn’t surprising he came when a spot opened that fits his background

Ray Kinsella: Anything noteworthy about Beau Brundage? Seems like he may be the only prospect who missed the Rays list.

Kiley McDaniel: A late cut from the others of note. Nobody seemed super convicted on him, but he’s an athlete with some ability. If he has a nice season, he’ll be mentioned next year

PM: Have you gotten any reports on Ben Ruta of the yankees? He seemed to have a breakout season across a couple levels last season.

Kiley McDaniel: Yep he’s on the sheet for consideration, probably not on the list if I had to guess

Guest: Does the perception of Josh Stowers change because he was traded to the Yankees?

Kiley McDaniel: Lol no

Daron: Do teams deploy defensive shifting very often in the minors?

Kiley McDaniel: More and more

John Utah: Sixto Sanchez, Alec Bohm, Adam Haseley, Scott Kingery, JoJo Romero for Mike Trout. Sign Bryce Harper and it’s parade time in the city of brotherly love!

Kiley McDaniel: Periodic reminder of the type of questions I don’t publish

Slurms McKenzie: Baseball Community: more teams need to try to be competitive!
Reds: (make moves to try and be competitive)
Baseball Community: well not like that!

J. Mauer: You have any reports on local boy RHP Ben Jordan from U of Kentucky?

Kiley McDaniel: Freshman eligible kid that was up to 98 in HS but had a TJ and is more 90-93 as a reliever look now

Max: The Cubs have been silent in the market, and sadly in recent FG chats as well.  So, if you’re Theo, what do you do here?

Kiley McDaniel: Ask more questions in FG chats

EfromNY: What should we expect from Estevan Florial? Floor/ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Maddening .220 hitter with plus raw but well below offense that’s a backup at all 3 OF spots is the floor, upside is maybe .270 with some walks and 25 HR in CF

Tommyboy: How many European prospects would you say are signed during each J2 period?

Kiley McDaniel: Like 5-10 usually? You hear about the ones that get real money or might be prospects

DJ Tanner: I forgot to send this earlier but you were the only FG person to have a chat the week of Christmas. I was very thankful you took the time to do that, much respect!

Kiley McDaniel: Good thing for you guys I was avoiding my family!

randplaty: What’s the benefit of being a “mystery team” as opposed to being open about pursuing a free agent?

Kiley McDaniel: shhhh

Kiley McDaniel: we’re the mystery team

Minnie Minoso: Would you say that Adley Rutschman is on the same level as Joey Bart?  Higher?  Lower?

Kiley McDaniel: Similar but a little higher right now

cash money : Do you see any chance that the Yanks, Padres and Indians get involved in a 3 way trade involving Andujar, Kluber and the Padres Outfielders / prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: Some chance but not likely

Pedals: Do teams manipulate industry prospect lists with misinformation?

Kiley McDaniel: Well, they try. Probably less than you think, but we know they try.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve caught them before. I think they count on us not knowing a scout that’s seen the player. So like a latin player that goes from the DSL to the pioneer league would be a guy who is scouted less than most

Joe: How do you and Eric settle your differences of opinion in regards to scouting prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: cinematic fist fight on a moving train in the south of france

Tito: Jesus Sanchez– You wrote that he has 30 grade plate discipline. His BB numbers show more of a free swinger, but K’s aren’t bad yet. Is the 30 grade on PD based on you guys watching him and knowing he gets away with swinging at bad pitches? Or maybe his elite bat speed allows him to beat up on unrefined pitching in the lower minors?

Kiley McDaniel: 30 plate discipline means swing/take decisions. He has plus power, bat speed and bat control, with bat control the most important for contact. He can hit pitcher’s pitches so he has a habit of swinging at them and it wouldn’t show up in K rates until AAA, maybe MLB

Kiley McDaniel: Starling Marte or Carl Crawford is an example of plus everything and below plate discipline working in the big leagues

Camden Warehouse: Are the Orioles ever going to hire a scouting director?

Kiley McDaniel: Rumor is that they aren’t going to, but I don’t know that for sure. Houston hasn’t hired one yet, either.

Doc: It might be “creating problems where they don’t exist,” but not sure why Braves fans are supposed to be happy with bringing back Markakis instead of upgrading RF, and then also giving Acuña fewer PA’s.

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think you understand what creating problems means b/c that’s exactly what you’re doing. You signed a guy that put up 2 WAR last year basically for free instead of signing/trading for one that put up 3 or 4 that would also cost way more. Acuna will get like 40 less PA if he’s healthy the whole year. These issues wouldn’t move the needle for 20 teams.

You have a playoff team with a top farm system full of dudes in AAA. Why your whole fanbase is in this chat every week complaining about why you haven’t traded for four all-stars is like hearing Bill Simmons complain about the refs in a Patriots game. This money they haven’t spent yet will get spent because they team isn’t amazing yet, it’s merely good, they just aren’t doing it right now.

Ryan: What does Adonis Medina need to do to reach his high ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Execute pitches more consistently, but all the elements are there

Cove Dweller: What do you mean by “head whack”?

Kiley McDaniel: jerking your head around at release of the pitch. bad indicator for command

Hans Crouse: Did someone say “head whack HS pitcher”?

Kiley McDaniel: He does it

Beeeel: Is franco the highest fv you’ve put on a rookieballer?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, 65 is about as high as you can go, all the 70s have been upper minors I believe

Keegan Akin: You called me a reliever back in June. Still think so?

Kiley McDaniel: The body will dictate that one, but the elements are there to start

Stir Candelario: You had no problem ranking Adrian Hernandez on the Mets list. Am I not as good as him?

Kiley McDaniel: You weren’t on the Rays list, so…no.

Kiley McDaniel: dope name tho

Weenie: I clicked the link to your chat AND I WON A FREE PHONE FROM AMAZON!!!!!! Thanks Kiley!

Dan: How exactly does the $ per WAR calculation work? As I understand it 1 WAR is worth $9 million, but if that is the case shouldn’t a guy like Machado be getting more like $45 mil per year? And even more for guys like Trout and Betts in a few years

Kiley McDaniel: The issue is that different players generally get paid slightly different rates, among other market factors. Some take issue with our value applied to minor leaguers but I have no issue there. We know clubs would competitively bid if every minor league was a free agent–that’s who they want to be spending this money on. Given a looming strike, I’m not sure this and the last offseason are completely fair ways to set the market but this is also the market for generally older players.

Kiley McDaniel: Also, in multi year deals, there is a discount on that AAV, so on a one year deal, yes your logic would stand up

GraphsFan: Kiley, are scouts reticent to share information amongst each other? What about sharing it with folks like you and Eric? How many scouts do you correspond with regularly?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean there’s always a hideout guy or a guy your team is trying to sign/trade for that scouts are very tight lipped about. Generally when it’s just standard coverage where your single report probably never really matters, the stakes are much lower.

Brian : Kiley, my son is a 2020 LHP from the Midwest and committed to a sec school. We’re starting to be contacted by numerous “advisors”. Are we allowed to talk to them with our eligibility remaining in tact? If so, what are some important questions we should be asking them all? Thank you

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, the issue is more on letting them negotiate on your behalf, but if I’m not mistaken the SEC specifically doesn’t have that rule anymore. Even in the past it was only an issue in the very rare circumstance (like it happened 2-3 times in 10 years) where a team official slips up and tells the media he negotiated with this kid’s agent, then the NCAA can say that’s proof he hired an agent and declare him ineligible. That happened to James Paxton and almost always is after a high profile high pick not signing where the team is kinda on tilt afterwards.

Kiley McDaniel: They’re mostly generally the same in ability to negotiate for you aside from the handful whose names are in the media all the time, but the issues would be more scale of the agency, if they’re the type of outfit you could stick with for all the phases of a whole MLB career, if they can do marketing for you, have an training facility, etc. For most HS players that stuff also doesn’t matter, so just picking someone you’re comfortable with that will give you attention and general advice is fine. You can always switch later if you want.

duder: The Marlins overplay/ed their hand with Realmuto, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Seems like it, but you only need one bidder in reality

Sam: Turns out the true Mystery Team were the friends we made along the way

JKim: Your 2018 report had Buehler at 55 FV – would he still be 55 or do you see him at 60?

Kiley McDaniel: he may be a 65 or 70 now

ManFredPig: Guys, I’m soooper cereal about banning shifts.

Best ATL BBQ: Heirloom BBQ, Fox Bros, or someone else

Kiley McDaniel: I lean Heirloom but not reason to leave out others

Kiley McDaniel: I’m also considering getting a smoker and doing some ribs out back while I write

Iggy Pop’s Raw Power: Max Scherzer – notorious head whacker

Kiley McDaniel: He’s the exception, yes

Mike: Also regarding Braves fans, and I am one, Josh Donaldson exists. Hes really good. People act like that signing never happened or as if hes 45 years old.

COB: Seeing the Rays depth, how plausible would it be for them to trade for a super-esque team, take on little payroll, and still have a top half farm?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean they could trade for like Kluber and Thor and still be top-10 I think

josh: Braves fan not complaining about Markakis. Instead curious where you think the money will go? Kimbrel? Kuchel? SP trade?

Kiley McDaniel: I think they probably have the hammer in the RP market right now if they want to use it. It wouldn’t shock me if they make a couple smaller moves and wait until midseason to see exactly what they have and maybe take on payroll then

Danny: Sorry if you answered this but when do you expect the Yankees list to go up?

Kiley McDaniel: Shooting for BAL Friday then NYY early next week

5 Run Homer: Alberto Figuereo is the first player I’ve seen on any of these lists who’s age, height, and weight are comparable to mine. Of course this means I’m a legit MLB prospect, right?

Kiley McDaniel: I once saw an NFL corner that was the same height and weight as chubby 14 year old Kiley and was like ohhh boy I guess I’m NFL ready now

Danny: Top 2014 Yankee IFAs- DeLeon, Dermis, Nelson Gomez, Wilkerman, Miguel Flames– are any of them prospects at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Dermis is the best one and he’s not going to be high on that list

Ehem: RON PAUL IS BACK

El Zilcho: How

LudeBurger: Hi Kiley. Can you give me career advice? Like general, what should I do with my life? Also, what is the meaning of life? Thanks.

Nate Yost: Explain the Shed Long to Mariners trade to me like I’m 4

Kiley McDaniel: alright, seems like we’re in range

5 Run Homer: Too many Lowes, not enough Home Hardwares

Mr. Fister: Do you remember when Michael Barrett tore his sack?  That gave me chills when I read the injury report and saw “torn scrotum.”

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: see you guys next week!