2019 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals.

Batters

When I saw the Washington Nationals towards the end of the randomly generated ZiPS order back around Thanksgiving, I thought to myself, “There’s no way that Bryce Harper appears in those projections unless he re-signs.” But here we are! Even more surprising is the degree to which ZiPS has fallen in love with Juan Soto, leaving Bryce Harper as merely the second-ranked player on the Nationals’ list. Young players don’t get the Ken Griffey Jr. offensive comp very often. In fact, I think Soto is the first player to get Jr. as his top comp at this early an age. Comps to Griffey in his thirties tend to be more common (Edwin Encarnacion got him as his No. 3 comp).

What you have here is a lineup in which the cream is very…uh…creamy. Soto’s projections rank him the No. 1 left fielder in baseball among the teams whose projections have gone live and I don’t think I’m giving any spoilers away by saying that neither Kyle Schwarber or Brett Gardner will have better projections. Anthony Rendon won’t drop below fifth among third baseman and there’s nobody left to push Trea Turner below the bronze at shortstop. That give the Nationals three players with a mean projection that makes them legitimate stars. The supporting cast is pretty good, too: Eaton’s at the back of the top 10 if he can stay healthy, ZiPS projects a decent bounce back campaign from Brian Dozier, and catcher and first base don’t drag the team down. Victor Robles isn’t projected to make as big a splash as Juan Soto, but is still soothsayed as an above average center fielder as a rookie.

Pitchers

The pitching bears a resemblance with the lineup in that the highs here are very high. You could do a lot worse than your top three starters having Greg MadduxBret SaberhagenAndy Pettitte as a set of comps. And as weird as it sounds, ZiPS may even be slightly underrating Patrick Corbin; if I used a beta version of ZiPS that is probably a year away from going live, Corbin’s 3.63 ERA would drop to 3.42 and he’d go from the 16th pitcher ranked so far to the 12th. The difference is the full implementation of plate discipline data, which shows Corbin was the second-hardest starting pitcher (min. 100 innings) to make contact against in 2018. It’s easy to cruise on your team’s defense or a lucky BABIP; it’s much harder to cruise by fooling batters, and Corbin doesn’t use a novel trick that might cause him to have a short shelf life.

After the top three starters, ZiPS is unimpressed with Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson. ZiPS would actually slightly prefer that the Nats use Erick Fedde and Joe Ross in those slots, but none of them are all that exciting. Ross was at one point, and he’s young enough to still recover, but his career was waylaid considerably by injury.

The bullpen is pretty much the same story. After Sean Doolittle (who has the 7th best projected ERA+ in baseball so far, though Yankees ‘pen is still to come) and Trevor Rosenthal, there’s a whole lot of meh going on. The only relief pitcher who really makes the computer feel a little flush is Austin Adams (there are two Austin Adami), a reliever with the classic mid 90s-fastball/slider combo and another classic trait of many hard-throwing minor league relievers: frequent control issues. Last year, Adams made real progress with his control, getting his walk rate under four in Triple-A while striking out 15 batters per nine innings, though Washington showed little interest in seeing what Adams can do. Washington never really seemed to have much faith in Felipe Vazquez or Blake Treinen either. One would think they’d have learned their lessons about not being more curious about hard-throwing strikeout machine relievers with command issues.

Bench and Prospects

ZiPS has the Nationals with the most WAR in the NL East, but does not similarly project them to be the first-place team. Simply put, ZiPS is unimpressed with team’s depth overall. This is due both to the reserves and the back of the bullpen, but also a minor league system that is likely to provide little in the way of additional reinforcements. Now, Robles is still technically a prospect, but he’s already considered here as a starter, not a reinforcement, and of the center field time split in the depth chart WARtoon, it’s Robles who makes up the bulk of the value rather than Michael Taylor.

The one exception is Carter Kieboom, a player who ZiPS thinks could backstop an injured infielder quite adequately, and certainly be an upgrade from Wilmer Difo, who would be the likely replacement if injury strikes a Turner or a Rendon (something which has happened before). Long-term, ZiPS projects a lot of power upside from Kieboom, thinking he’ll get into the twenties in home runs a year fairly easily, with peak WARs that suggest multiple All-Star appearances.

After that, there’s very little in short-term value. The next-best position player in the minors for the Nats, at least in terms of how ZiPS views 2019, is catcher Tres Barrera, projected to hit .228/.287/.355 for a 0.3 WAR in just under 300 plate appearances (which will almost certainly all be in the majors in 2019). And really, if a catcher was injured, whichever of Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes is healthy is likely to simply take over most of the additional playing time.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 20 LF 153 558 106 165 31 4 36 112 98 130 8 4
Bryce Harper L 26 RF 149 516 104 140 30 1 35 109 119 153 14 5
Trea Turner R 26 SS 156 621 96 171 30 9 19 75 56 132 45 9
Anthony Rendon R 29 3B 140 522 80 147 38 2 21 88 62 90 5 2
Adam Eaton L 30 RF 119 452 71 133 24 6 9 48 45 87 11 4
Brian Dozier R 32 2B 142 552 87 138 32 4 25 83 61 127 12 4
Victor Robles R 22 CF 122 454 57 117 25 6 10 53 36 95 28 12
Carter Kieboom R 21 SS 120 482 64 116 24 1 15 56 46 125 7 3
Matt Adams L 30 1B 118 305 39 77 16 0 18 62 25 78 0 0
Kurt Suzuki R 35 C 95 316 36 83 18 0 9 49 19 43 0 0
Yan Gomes R 31 C 103 361 42 86 19 0 13 49 20 102 0 0
Wilmer Difo B 27 2B 138 423 55 105 17 5 7 40 33 91 14 4
Michael A. Taylor R 28 CF 124 381 46 89 19 2 11 40 30 133 22 6
Ryan Zimmerman R 34 1B 104 370 51 96 21 1 17 66 32 86 2 1
Matt Wieters B 33 C 96 320 32 76 14 0 9 43 31 69 0 0
Matt Reynolds R 28 SS 106 338 41 78 19 3 5 33 31 95 4 2
Moises Sierra R 30 RF 100 334 39 85 16 1 8 38 25 78 6 4
Tres Barrera R 24 C 69 259 28 59 13 1 6 25 17 66 2 0
Spencer Kieboom R 28 C 77 244 28 56 12 0 4 24 26 50 0 0
Adrian Sanchez B 28 SS 108 348 35 86 19 2 4 33 16 64 8 5
Howie Kendrick R 35 2B 92 331 41 92 18 2 6 34 22 67 6 3
Jacob Wilson R 28 3B 112 394 46 89 20 1 10 45 34 102 2 2
Pedro Severino R 25 C 100 324 32 75 13 1 7 33 20 70 2 1
Miguel Montero L 35 C 78 218 24 48 7 0 7 29 30 64 1 0
Jason Martinson R 30 3B 95 348 39 65 12 2 14 42 27 167 4 3
Jake Noll R 25 3B 129 491 54 118 17 3 10 50 24 103 6 3
Luis Sardinas B 26 SS 103 348 38 90 13 2 5 33 16 63 6 4
Austin Davidson L 26 1B 106 355 43 84 18 3 8 39 34 79 5 4
Brandon Snyder R 32 3B 108 376 47 84 19 2 14 50 31 141 3 1
Irving Falu B 36 2B 100 361 37 91 14 2 4 34 24 39 7 5
Raudy Read R 25 C 91 342 36 82 19 2 7 37 18 76 2 1
Hunter Jones R 27 CF 114 422 45 97 15 5 6 38 31 105 12 5
Drew Ward L 24 1B 118 408 51 88 19 2 11 46 50 153 1 2
Matt Hague R 33 1B 92 341 39 87 18 0 6 34 34 61 2 1
Alec Keller L 27 LF 98 369 39 94 15 4 2 30 22 76 5 4
Yadiel Hernandez L 31 LF 117 411 50 101 16 1 12 47 42 106 3 2
Bengie Gonzalez R 29 SS 107 361 36 81 16 2 3 28 28 76 7 4
Andrew Stevenson L 25 CF 133 445 49 105 14 4 5 38 33 117 17 9
Jose Marmolejos L 26 1B 127 486 55 118 25 3 10 53 37 121 0 1
Tyler Goeddel R 26 LF 99 321 36 73 12 3 5 31 28 87 8 3
Michael Almanzar R 28 3B 102 362 34 82 18 1 7 36 17 98 0 1
Chris Dominguez R 32 1B 88 293 32 67 14 1 10 35 11 98 6 3
Khayyan Norfork R 30 2B 75 220 22 48 8 0 2 16 16 63 3 1
Taylor Gushue B 25 C 96 349 36 70 14 1 9 38 27 110 0 1
Zach Collier L 28 RF 95 305 32 60 13 4 5 29 28 117 4 4
Chuck Taylor B 25 LF 124 486 54 118 21 3 5 44 43 101 3 4
Dan Gamache L 28 2B 117 396 41 90 17 1 5 34 36 117 1 4
Rafael Bautista R 26 CF 97 361 37 85 9 3 2 23 20 79 19 6
Telmito Agustin L 22 LF 105 370 40 84 15 3 8 36 21 105 9 6
Adam Brett Walker R 27 LF 93 336 42 62 14 2 18 55 28 169 4 1
Osvaldo Abreu R 25 SS 119 430 45 89 18 3 7 38 33 136 7 6

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Juan Soto 658 .296 .400 .559 149 .263 .329 8.6 -6 5.1 Ken Griffey
Bryce Harper 646 .271 .407 .537 146 .266 .320 8.2 -4 4.7 Elbie Fletcher
Trea Turner 685 .275 .337 .444 103 .169 .323 6.1 3 4.4 Rafael Furcal
Anthony Rendon 597 .282 .360 .483 119 .201 .307 6.6 6 4.4 Davey Johnson
Adam Eaton 513 .294 .371 .434 111 .139 .348 6.2 7 3.0 Pat Kelly
Brian Dozier 623 .250 .329 .458 104 .208 .283 5.5 -2 2.8 Jose Valentin
Victor Robles 510 .258 .329 .405 92 .148 .307 5.0 7 2.4 Milton Bradley
Carter Kieboom 534 .241 .311 .388 83 .147 .295 4.3 0 1.5 Michael Young
Matt Adams 334 .252 .311 .482 104 .230 .282 5.4 5 1.3 Daryle Ward
Kurt Suzuki 350 .263 .321 .405 89 .142 .280 4.8 -1 1.2 Mike Lieberthal
Yan Gomes 391 .238 .289 .399 79 .161 .297 4.1 3 1.1 Nelson Santovenia
Wilmer Difo 464 .248 .304 .362 74 .113 .302 4.1 6 1.0 Derek Wathan
Michael A. Taylor 414 .234 .291 .381 75 .147 .329 4.2 3 0.8 Damon Mashore
Ryan Zimmerman 410 .259 .320 .459 102 .200 .296 5.4 -2 0.8 Hubie Brooks
Matt Wieters 357 .238 .306 .366 76 .128 .277 4.0 -1 0.6 Scott Servais
Matt Reynolds 375 .231 .299 .349 70 .118 .307 3.7 1 0.5 Edgar Gonzalez
Moises Sierra 366 .254 .314 .380 82 .126 .310 4.3 3 0.4 Kevin Romine
Tres Barrera 283 .228 .287 .355 68 .127 .283 3.6 0 0.3 David Duff
Spencer Kieboom 272 .230 .305 .328 67 .098 .274 3.5 0 0.3 Bill Dobrolsky
Adrian Sanchez 371 .247 .283 .348 65 .101 .293 3.5 2 0.2 Greg Fulton
Howie Kendrick 359 .278 .329 .399 90 .121 .333 4.9 -8 0.2 Dave Concepcion
Jacob Wilson 442 .226 .293 .358 70 .132 .280 3.6 1 0.1 Craig Walck
Pedro Severino 350 .231 .281 .343 63 .111 .275 3.4 0 0.1 Brandon Marsters
Miguel Montero 253 .220 .320 .349 76 .128 .279 3.9 -5 0.0 Chad Kreuter
Jason Martinson 383 .187 .255 .353 58 .167 .305 2.9 6 0.0 Sean Mcnally
Jake Noll 527 .240 .281 .348 65 .108 .286 3.5 4 0.0 Pat Osborn
Luis Sardinas 372 .259 .294 .351 69 .092 .304 3.7 -2 0.0 Tom Veryzer
Austin Davidson 398 .237 .310 .372 78 .135 .284 4.0 2 0.0 Matt Bowser
Brandon Snyder 414 .223 .287 .396 77 .173 .317 4.0 -5 0.0 Steve Scarsone
Irving Falu 391 .252 .299 .335 67 .083 .274 3.5 1 0.0 Casey Candaele
Raudy Read 364 .240 .280 .368 69 .129 .290 3.7 -4 0.0 Neil Wilson
Hunter Jones 466 .230 .292 .332 64 .102 .293 3.4 1 -0.1 Choo Freeman
Drew Ward 464 .216 .306 .353 73 .137 .316 3.6 3 -0.2 Lucas Duda
Matt Hague 382 .255 .325 .361 80 .106 .296 4.2 -2 -0.2 Royce Huffman
Alec Keller 397 .255 .299 .333 66 .079 .316 3.5 5 -0.2 Raul Tovar
Yadiel Hernandez 456 .246 .316 .377 82 .131 .304 4.2 -4 -0.3 Stu Pederson
Bengie Gonzalez 395 .224 .280 .305 54 .080 .277 2.9 1 -0.4 Keith Johns
Andrew Stevenson 486 .236 .292 .319 61 .083 .310 3.3 0 -0.4 Keiunta Span
Jose Marmolejos 531 .243 .298 .368 74 .126 .304 3.9 1 -0.4 Juan Tejeda
Tyler Goeddel 357 .227 .299 .330 65 .103 .297 3.5 0 -0.5 Casey Craig
Michael Almanzar 385 .227 .265 .340 58 .113 .292 3.1 2 -0.5 Colin Dixon
Chris Dominguez 312 .229 .266 .386 69 .157 .308 3.6 1 -0.5 Darrell Whitmore
Khayyan Norfork 243 .218 .282 .282 49 .064 .297 2.8 0 -0.5 Gary Green
Taylor Gushue 383 .201 .261 .324 53 .123 .265 2.8 -2 -0.6 Alan Probst
Zach Collier 339 .197 .272 .315 54 .118 .301 2.7 4 -0.7 Kevin Koslofski
Chuck Taylor 537 .243 .309 .329 68 .086 .297 3.5 0 -0.7 Scott Melvin
Dan Gamache 438 .227 .295 .313 61 .086 .310 3.0 -3 -0.8 John Hotchkiss
Rafael Bautista 391 .235 .281 .294 52 .058 .296 3.1 -3 -0.9 Fernando Ramsey
Telmito Agustin 399 .227 .273 .349 62 .122 .296 3.2 -1 -1.1 Lonnie Maclin
Adam Brett Walker 370 .185 .249 .399 66 .214 .295 3.3 -6 -1.1 Kirk Asche
Osvaldo Abreu 472 .207 .269 .312 52 .105 .286 2.7 -5 -1.2 Erick Monzon

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Max Scherzer R 34 15 7 2.98 30 30 193.3 148 64 23 50 248
Patrick Corbin L 29 12 8 3.63 32 31 181.0 171 73 21 50 195
Stephen Strasburg R 30 12 7 3.34 25 25 145.3 127 54 16 38 165
Erick Fedde R 26 6 6 4.50 25 22 112.0 118 56 14 39 95
Sean Doolittle L 32 3 1 2.95 43 0 39.7 31 13 6 7 51
Joe Ross R 26 6 5 4.53 18 18 89.3 96 45 13 27 69
Jeremy Hellickson R 32 7 7 4.74 22 22 114.0 120 60 19 31 80
Anibal Sanchez R 35 6 7 4.93 25 22 118.7 121 65 18 40 115
Austin Voth R 27 7 8 4.98 26 24 124.7 133 69 19 52 99
Logan Darnell L 30 6 7 5.09 22 18 99.0 117 56 15 33 58
Austin L. Adams R 28 3 2 3.83 43 0 51.7 40 22 4 37 68
Austen Williams R 26 6 6 4.78 32 12 92.3 98 49 14 33 79
Trevor Rosenthal R 29 3 2 3.48 36 0 33.7 29 13 3 17 46
Justin Miller R 32 5 3 3.86 53 0 56.0 51 24 8 18 62
Tyler Mapes R 27 6 7 5.08 22 19 106.3 123 60 16 35 63
Matt Grace L 30 2 1 3.99 54 1 58.7 61 26 5 18 41
Vidal Nuno L 31 3 3 4.66 33 6 65.7 71 34 13 16 56
Sterling Sharp R 24 8 9 5.21 26 26 133.0 157 77 18 51 74
Andrew Istler R 26 4 4 4.21 42 1 66.3 68 31 7 23 53
Scott Copeland R 31 7 8 5.35 21 21 109.3 124 65 17 50 73
Kyle Barraclough R 29 4 3 4.10 65 0 59.3 49 27 5 40 69
Wander Suero R 27 4 3 4.16 53 0 62.7 63 29 7 22 55
Brady Dragmire R 26 6 7 5.42 29 18 116.3 141 70 18 44 64
Henderson Alvarez R 29 3 3 5.21 10 9 48.3 56 28 7 17 24
Dakota Bacus R 28 3 3 4.82 26 4 56.0 57 30 8 27 48
Koda Glover R 26 3 2 4.32 40 0 41.7 41 20 5 15 38
Aaron Barrett R 31 1 1 4.12 23 0 19.7 18 9 2 10 19
Cesar Vargas R 27 4 5 5.42 25 15 86.3 96 52 13 47 63
Jhon Romero R 24 2 1 4.50 41 0 56.0 55 28 6 29 50
Jordan Mills L 27 3 3 4.66 39 0 48.3 49 25 5 28 41
Jaron Long R 27 7 9 5.57 25 20 124.3 152 77 23 33 68
Joaquin Benoit R 41 3 2 4.68 35 0 32.7 31 17 5 15 28
Sammy Solis L 30 2 2 4.70 57 0 46.0 45 24 7 22 48
Josh Edgin L 32 3 3 4.81 46 0 39.3 38 21 6 22 41
J.J. Hoover R 31 3 3 4.86 54 0 50.0 49 27 8 28 52
David Goforth R 30 3 4 5.37 42 2 58.7 65 35 8 31 41
Kyle McGowin R 27 6 9 5.90 25 23 122.0 137 80 27 48 105
Wil Crowe R 24 6 9 5.83 22 21 100.3 115 65 17 56 74
Tanner Rainey R 26 4 4 5.30 54 0 54.3 47 32 8 46 66
Jimmy Cordero R 27 3 4 5.40 57 0 60.0 62 36 8 40 50
James Bourque R 25 4 5 5.81 31 9 69.7 76 45 13 39 62
John Simms R 27 5 7 5.83 25 15 92.7 105 60 18 41 66
Ronald Pena R 27 2 3 5.55 36 0 47.0 49 29 8 29 43
Roman Mendez R 28 4 5 5.69 41 0 49.0 52 31 10 25 44
Bryan Harper L 29 2 3 6.38 42 0 42.3 48 30 8 31 33
Luis Reyes R 24 6 10 6.62 19 19 89.7 109 66 19 51 55

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer 775 11.54 2.33 1.07 .280 142 70 3.03 5.1 Greg Maddux
Patrick Corbin 756 9.70 2.49 1.04 .309 117 86 3.40 3.4 Andy Pettitte
Stephen Strasburg 597 10.22 2.35 0.99 .298 127 79 3.20 3.2 Bret Saberhagen
Erick Fedde 490 7.63 3.13 1.13 .309 94 106 4.26 1.1 Mike LaCoss
Sean Doolittle 156 11.57 1.59 1.36 .275 149 67 3.15 0.9 Billy Wagner
Joe Ross 388 6.95 2.72 1.31 .302 94 107 4.54 0.9 Mark Knudson
Jeremy Hellickson 490 6.32 2.45 1.50 .285 90 112 4.89 0.8 Glenn Abbott
Anibal Sanchez 512 8.72 3.03 1.37 .307 89 113 4.27 0.8 Rick Helling
Austin Voth 556 7.15 3.75 1.37 .300 85 117 4.94 0.6 Kevin Hodges
Logan Darnell 445 5.27 3.00 1.36 .306 86 116 5.13 0.5 Dave Otto
Austin L. Adams 232 11.85 6.45 0.70 .300 114 87 3.85 0.5 Jim Kern
Austen Williams 406 7.70 3.22 1.36 .305 89 113 4.64 0.4 Doug Potestio
Trevor Rosenthal 147 12.30 4.54 0.80 .329 122 82 3.27 0.4 Ernie Camacho
Justin Miller 235 9.96 2.89 1.29 .297 110 91 3.86 0.4 Bert Roberge
Tyler Mapes 474 5.33 2.96 1.35 .302 84 120 5.08 0.4 Steve Finch
Matt Grace 253 6.29 2.76 0.77 .301 106 94 3.93 0.4 Dave Tomlin
Vidal Nuno 282 7.68 2.19 1.78 .299 94 106 4.89 0.4 Sam Zoldak
Sterling Sharp 605 5.01 3.45 1.22 .307 81 123 5.15 0.3 Jake Joseph
Andrew Istler 289 7.19 3.12 0.95 .302 101 99 4.14 0.3 Adrian Devine
Scott Copeland 499 6.01 4.12 1.40 .303 82 122 5.37 0.3 Dick Fowler
Kyle Barraclough 266 10.47 6.07 0.76 .295 104 97 4.09 0.3 Jack Meyer
Wander Suero 272 7.90 3.16 1.01 .304 102 98 4.09 0.2 Rafael Montalvo
Brady Dragmire 531 4.95 3.40 1.39 .309 81 124 5.38 0.1 Tony Peguero
Henderson Alvarez 216 4.47 3.17 1.30 .295 81 123 5.22 0.1 Stephen Whitmyer
Dakota Bacus 251 7.71 4.34 1.29 .297 88 114 4.90 0.1 Mike Bumstead
Koda Glover 179 8.21 3.24 1.08 .300 98 102 4.04 0.1 Trey Witte
Aaron Barrett 87 8.69 4.58 0.92 .291 103 97 4.22 0.1 Kevin Gryboski
Cesar Vargas 400 6.57 4.90 1.36 .305 81 124 5.46 0.1 Danny Kolb
Jhon Romero 251 8.04 4.66 0.96 .301 94 106 4.47 0.0 Sam Nahem
Jordan Mills 221 7.63 5.21 0.93 .306 94 106 4.72 0.0 Brian Adams
Jaron Long 555 4.92 2.39 1.66 .304 79 127 5.43 0.0 Heath Totten
Joaquin Benoit 143 7.71 4.13 1.38 .277 91 110 4.89 -0.1 Don McMahon
Sammy Solis 204 9.39 4.30 1.37 .304 90 111 4.61 -0.1 Randy Choate
Josh Edgin 178 9.38 5.03 1.37 .302 88 113 4.96 -0.1 Sean Fesh
J.J. Hoover 226 9.36 5.04 1.44 .301 87 115 4.95 -0.2 Mike Cook
David Goforth 270 6.29 4.76 1.23 .305 79 127 5.26 -0.4 Jim Todd
Kyle McGowin 549 7.75 3.54 1.99 .304 74 135 5.66 -0.4 Pete Janicki
Wil Crowe 470 6.64 5.02 1.52 .309 73 137 5.73 -0.5 Chad Paronto
Tanner Rainey 256 10.93 7.62 1.33 .293 80 125 5.34 -0.5 Josh Banks
Jimmy Cordero 281 7.50 6.00 1.20 .300 81 123 5.37 -0.5 Ken Wright
James Bourque 323 8.01 5.04 1.68 .307 73 137 5.65 -0.5 Eulogio Delacruz
John Simms 422 6.41 3.98 1.75 .298 73 137 5.74 -0.5 Wes Wilkerson
Ronald Pena 219 8.23 5.55 1.53 .301 76 131 5.58 -0.5 Rick Greene
Roman Mendez 223 8.08 4.59 1.84 .298 77 130 5.72 -0.6 Mario Ramos
Bryan Harper 206 7.02 6.59 1.70 .305 67 150 6.46 -0.9 Scott Forster
Luis Reyes 427 5.52 5.12 1.91 .303 64 156 6.55 -1.2 Mark Woodyard

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Kevbot034
Member
Kevbot034

Why do the Nats not get connected to Kimbrel in rumors more if their pen and depth is an issue? He would help both out significantly, surely?

warkol
Member
warkol

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/craig-kimbrel-rumors/c-297610312

“Feb. 1: Could the Braves be “lying in the weeds” for All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel? MLB Network insider Jon Heyman reports that “folks around the game suspect” that’s the case, and that some other teams in the mix include the Phillies, Nationals, Red Sox, Twins and a “mystery” team.”

this is the only connection I’ve seen, not much of one. given the history of how the Nats have spent on bullpen in FA in the past I’m not very surprised. Rarely have converted on big-name relievers in FA. I think the ownership has been especially cautious with spending on big name relievers with how the Rafael Soriano signing turned out. Could also argue wariness of older bigger named relievers in general with the Papelbon fallout (granted Pap is from a different cut than a lot of players).

HappyFunBall
Member
HappyFunBall

They’re already at the tax threshold. If they really want to blow through it they’ll re-sign Harper

DBA455
Member
Member
DBA455

This is fascinating: “ZiPS has the Nationals with the most WAR in the NL East, but does not similarly project them to be the first-place team” because
(a) Steamer appears to have the Nats as the first place team in the division by a good 6 games and
(b) this may mean that ZiPS is going to project the Mets to win the division, which would undoubtedly be the prologue to a story that ends with something crushing happening to the Flushing fan base by the fall.