2019 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals by Dan Szymborski February 15, 2019 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. ZiPS Projections 2019 2018 ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters When I saw the Washington Nationals towards the end of the randomly generated ZiPS order back around Thanksgiving, I thought to myself, “There’s no way that Bryce Harper appears in those projections unless he re-signs.” But here we are! Even more surprising is the degree to which ZiPS has fallen in love with Juan Soto, leaving Bryce Harper as merely the second-ranked player on the Nationals’ list. Young players don’t get the Ken Griffey Jr. offensive comp very often. In fact, I think Soto is the first player to get Jr. as his top comp at this early an age. Comps to Griffey in his thirties tend to be more common (Edwin Encarnacion got him as his No. 3 comp). What you have here is a lineup in which the cream is very…uh…creamy. Soto’s projections rank him the No. 1 left fielder in baseball among the teams whose projections have gone live and I don’t think I’m giving any spoilers away by saying that neither Kyle Schwarber or Brett Gardner will have better projections. Anthony Rendon won’t drop below fifth among third baseman and there’s nobody left to push Trea Turner below the bronze at shortstop. That give the Nationals three players with a mean projection that makes them legitimate stars. The supporting cast is pretty good, too: Eaton’s at the back of the top 10 if he can stay healthy, ZiPS projects a decent bounce back campaign from Brian Dozier, and catcher and first base don’t drag the team down. Victor Robles isn’t projected to make as big a splash as Juan Soto, but is still soothsayed as an above average center fielder as a rookie. Pitchers The pitching bears a resemblance with the lineup in that the highs here are very high. You could do a lot worse than your top three starters having Greg Maddux–Bret Saberhagen–Andy Pettitte as a set of comps. And as weird as it sounds, ZiPS may even be slightly underrating Patrick Corbin; if I used a beta version of ZiPS that is probably a year away from going live, Corbin’s 3.63 ERA would drop to 3.42 and he’d go from the 16th pitcher ranked so far to the 12th. The difference is the full implementation of plate discipline data, which shows Corbin was the second-hardest starting pitcher (min. 100 innings) to make contact against in 2018. It’s easy to cruise on your team’s defense or a lucky BABIP; it’s much harder to cruise by fooling batters, and Corbin doesn’t use a novel trick that might cause him to have a short shelf life. After the top three starters, ZiPS is unimpressed with Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson. ZiPS would actually slightly prefer that the Nats use Erick Fedde and Joe Ross in those slots, but none of them are all that exciting. Ross was at one point, and he’s young enough to still recover, but his career was waylaid considerably by injury. The bullpen is pretty much the same story. After Sean Doolittle (who has the 7th best projected ERA+ in baseball so far, though Yankees ‘pen is still to come) and Trevor Rosenthal, there’s a whole lot of meh going on. The only relief pitcher who really makes the computer feel a little flush is Austin Adams (there are two Austin Adami), a reliever with the classic mid 90s-fastball/slider combo and another classic trait of many hard-throwing minor league relievers: frequent control issues. Last year, Adams made real progress with his control, getting his walk rate under four in Triple-A while striking out 15 batters per nine innings, though Washington showed little interest in seeing what Adams can do. Washington never really seemed to have much faith in Felipe Vazquez or Blake Treinen either. One would think they’d have learned their lessons about not being more curious about hard-throwing strikeout machine relievers with command issues. Bench and Prospects ZiPS has the Nationals with the most WAR in the NL East, but does not similarly project them to be the first-place team. Simply put, ZiPS is unimpressed with team’s depth overall. This is due both to the reserves and the back of the bullpen, but also a minor league system that is likely to provide little in the way of additional reinforcements. Now, Robles is still technically a prospect, but he’s already considered here as a starter, not a reinforcement, and of the center field time split in the depth chart WARtoon, it’s Robles who makes up the bulk of the value rather than Michael Taylor. The one exception is Carter Kieboom, a player who ZiPS thinks could backstop an injured infielder quite adequately, and certainly be an upgrade from Wilmer Difo, who would be the likely replacement if injury strikes a Turner or a Rendon (something which has happened before). Long-term, ZiPS projects a lot of power upside from Kieboom, thinking he’ll get into the twenties in home runs a year fairly easily, with peak WARs that suggest multiple All-Star appearances. After that, there’s very little in short-term value. The next-best position player in the minors for the Nats, at least in terms of how ZiPS views 2019, is catcher Tres Barrera, projected to hit .228/.287/.355 for a 0.3 WAR in just under 300 plate appearances (which will almost certainly all be in the majors in 2019). And really, if a catcher was injured, whichever of Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes is healthy is likely to simply take over most of the additional playing time. One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site. Batters – Counting Stats Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Juan Soto L 20 LF 153 558 106 165 31 4 36 112 98 130 8 4 Bryce Harper L 26 RF 149 516 104 140 30 1 35 109 119 153 14 5 Trea Turner R 26 SS 156 621 96 171 30 9 19 75 56 132 45 9 Anthony Rendon R 29 3B 140 522 80 147 38 2 21 88 62 90 5 2 Adam Eaton L 30 RF 119 452 71 133 24 6 9 48 45 87 11 4 Brian Dozier R 32 2B 142 552 87 138 32 4 25 83 61 127 12 4 Victor Robles R 22 CF 122 454 57 117 25 6 10 53 36 95 28 12 Carter Kieboom R 21 SS 120 482 64 116 24 1 15 56 46 125 7 3 Matt Adams L 30 1B 118 305 39 77 16 0 18 62 25 78 0 0 Kurt Suzuki R 35 C 95 316 36 83 18 0 9 49 19 43 0 0 Yan Gomes R 31 C 103 361 42 86 19 0 13 49 20 102 0 0 Wilmer Difo B 27 2B 138 423 55 105 17 5 7 40 33 91 14 4 Michael A. Taylor R 28 CF 124 381 46 89 19 2 11 40 30 133 22 6 Ryan Zimmerman R 34 1B 104 370 51 96 21 1 17 66 32 86 2 1 Matt Wieters B 33 C 96 320 32 76 14 0 9 43 31 69 0 0 Matt Reynolds R 28 SS 106 338 41 78 19 3 5 33 31 95 4 2 Moises Sierra R 30 RF 100 334 39 85 16 1 8 38 25 78 6 4 Tres Barrera R 24 C 69 259 28 59 13 1 6 25 17 66 2 0 Spencer Kieboom R 28 C 77 244 28 56 12 0 4 24 26 50 0 0 Adrian Sanchez B 28 SS 108 348 35 86 19 2 4 33 16 64 8 5 Howie Kendrick R 35 2B 92 331 41 92 18 2 6 34 22 67 6 3 Jacob Wilson R 28 3B 112 394 46 89 20 1 10 45 34 102 2 2 Pedro Severino R 25 C 100 324 32 75 13 1 7 33 20 70 2 1 Miguel Montero L 35 C 78 218 24 48 7 0 7 29 30 64 1 0 Jason Martinson R 30 3B 95 348 39 65 12 2 14 42 27 167 4 3 Jake Noll R 25 3B 129 491 54 118 17 3 10 50 24 103 6 3 Luis Sardinas B 26 SS 103 348 38 90 13 2 5 33 16 63 6 4 Austin Davidson L 26 1B 106 355 43 84 18 3 8 39 34 79 5 4 Brandon Snyder R 32 3B 108 376 47 84 19 2 14 50 31 141 3 1 Irving Falu B 36 2B 100 361 37 91 14 2 4 34 24 39 7 5 Raudy Read R 25 C 91 342 36 82 19 2 7 37 18 76 2 1 Hunter Jones R 27 CF 114 422 45 97 15 5 6 38 31 105 12 5 Drew Ward L 24 1B 118 408 51 88 19 2 11 46 50 153 1 2 Matt Hague R 33 1B 92 341 39 87 18 0 6 34 34 61 2 1 Alec Keller L 27 LF 98 369 39 94 15 4 2 30 22 76 5 4 Yadiel Hernandez L 31 LF 117 411 50 101 16 1 12 47 42 106 3 2 Bengie Gonzalez R 29 SS 107 361 36 81 16 2 3 28 28 76 7 4 Andrew Stevenson L 25 CF 133 445 49 105 14 4 5 38 33 117 17 9 Jose Marmolejos L 26 1B 127 486 55 118 25 3 10 53 37 121 0 1 Tyler Goeddel R 26 LF 99 321 36 73 12 3 5 31 28 87 8 3 Michael Almanzar R 28 3B 102 362 34 82 18 1 7 36 17 98 0 1 Chris Dominguez R 32 1B 88 293 32 67 14 1 10 35 11 98 6 3 Khayyan Norfork R 30 2B 75 220 22 48 8 0 2 16 16 63 3 1 Taylor Gushue B 25 C 96 349 36 70 14 1 9 38 27 110 0 1 Zach Collier L 28 RF 95 305 32 60 13 4 5 29 28 117 4 4 Chuck Taylor B 25 LF 124 486 54 118 21 3 5 44 43 101 3 4 Dan Gamache L 28 2B 117 396 41 90 17 1 5 34 36 117 1 4 Rafael Bautista R 26 CF 97 361 37 85 9 3 2 23 20 79 19 6 Telmito Agustin L 22 LF 105 370 40 84 15 3 8 36 21 105 9 6 Adam Brett Walker R 27 LF 93 336 42 62 14 2 18 55 28 169 4 1 Osvaldo Abreu R 25 SS 119 430 45 89 18 3 7 38 33 136 7 6 Batters – Rate Stats Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Juan Soto 658 .296 .400 .559 149 .263 .329 8.6 -6 5.1 Ken Griffey Bryce Harper 646 .271 .407 .537 146 .266 .320 8.2 -4 4.7 Elbie Fletcher Trea Turner 685 .275 .337 .444 103 .169 .323 6.1 3 4.4 Rafael Furcal Anthony Rendon 597 .282 .360 .483 119 .201 .307 6.6 6 4.4 Davey Johnson Adam Eaton 513 .294 .371 .434 111 .139 .348 6.2 7 3.0 Pat Kelly Brian Dozier 623 .250 .329 .458 104 .208 .283 5.5 -2 2.8 Jose Valentin Victor Robles 510 .258 .329 .405 92 .148 .307 5.0 7 2.4 Milton Bradley Carter Kieboom 534 .241 .311 .388 83 .147 .295 4.3 0 1.5 Michael Young Matt Adams 334 .252 .311 .482 104 .230 .282 5.4 5 1.3 Daryle Ward Kurt Suzuki 350 .263 .321 .405 89 .142 .280 4.8 -1 1.2 Mike Lieberthal Yan Gomes 391 .238 .289 .399 79 .161 .297 4.1 3 1.1 Nelson Santovenia Wilmer Difo 464 .248 .304 .362 74 .113 .302 4.1 6 1.0 Derek Wathan Michael A. Taylor 414 .234 .291 .381 75 .147 .329 4.2 3 0.8 Damon Mashore Ryan Zimmerman 410 .259 .320 .459 102 .200 .296 5.4 -2 0.8 Hubie Brooks Matt Wieters 357 .238 .306 .366 76 .128 .277 4.0 -1 0.6 Scott Servais Matt Reynolds 375 .231 .299 .349 70 .118 .307 3.7 1 0.5 Edgar Gonzalez Moises Sierra 366 .254 .314 .380 82 .126 .310 4.3 3 0.4 Kevin Romine Tres Barrera 283 .228 .287 .355 68 .127 .283 3.6 0 0.3 David Duff Spencer Kieboom 272 .230 .305 .328 67 .098 .274 3.5 0 0.3 Bill Dobrolsky Adrian Sanchez 371 .247 .283 .348 65 .101 .293 3.5 2 0.2 Greg Fulton Howie Kendrick 359 .278 .329 .399 90 .121 .333 4.9 -8 0.2 Dave Concepcion Jacob Wilson 442 .226 .293 .358 70 .132 .280 3.6 1 0.1 Craig Walck Pedro Severino 350 .231 .281 .343 63 .111 .275 3.4 0 0.1 Brandon Marsters Miguel Montero 253 .220 .320 .349 76 .128 .279 3.9 -5 0.0 Chad Kreuter Jason Martinson 383 .187 .255 .353 58 .167 .305 2.9 6 0.0 Sean Mcnally Jake Noll 527 .240 .281 .348 65 .108 .286 3.5 4 0.0 Pat Osborn Luis Sardinas 372 .259 .294 .351 69 .092 .304 3.7 -2 0.0 Tom Veryzer Austin Davidson 398 .237 .310 .372 78 .135 .284 4.0 2 0.0 Matt Bowser Brandon Snyder 414 .223 .287 .396 77 .173 .317 4.0 -5 0.0 Steve Scarsone Irving Falu 391 .252 .299 .335 67 .083 .274 3.5 1 0.0 Casey Candaele Raudy Read 364 .240 .280 .368 69 .129 .290 3.7 -4 0.0 Neil Wilson Hunter Jones 466 .230 .292 .332 64 .102 .293 3.4 1 -0.1 Choo Freeman Drew Ward 464 .216 .306 .353 73 .137 .316 3.6 3 -0.2 Lucas Duda Matt Hague 382 .255 .325 .361 80 .106 .296 4.2 -2 -0.2 Royce Huffman Alec Keller 397 .255 .299 .333 66 .079 .316 3.5 5 -0.2 Raul Tovar Yadiel Hernandez 456 .246 .316 .377 82 .131 .304 4.2 -4 -0.3 Stu Pederson Bengie Gonzalez 395 .224 .280 .305 54 .080 .277 2.9 1 -0.4 Keith Johns Andrew Stevenson 486 .236 .292 .319 61 .083 .310 3.3 0 -0.4 Keiunta Span Jose Marmolejos 531 .243 .298 .368 74 .126 .304 3.9 1 -0.4 Juan Tejeda Tyler Goeddel 357 .227 .299 .330 65 .103 .297 3.5 0 -0.5 Casey Craig Michael Almanzar 385 .227 .265 .340 58 .113 .292 3.1 2 -0.5 Colin Dixon Chris Dominguez 312 .229 .266 .386 69 .157 .308 3.6 1 -0.5 Darrell Whitmore Khayyan Norfork 243 .218 .282 .282 49 .064 .297 2.8 0 -0.5 Gary Green Taylor Gushue 383 .201 .261 .324 53 .123 .265 2.8 -2 -0.6 Alan Probst Zach Collier 339 .197 .272 .315 54 .118 .301 2.7 4 -0.7 Kevin Koslofski Chuck Taylor 537 .243 .309 .329 68 .086 .297 3.5 0 -0.7 Scott Melvin Dan Gamache 438 .227 .295 .313 61 .086 .310 3.0 -3 -0.8 John Hotchkiss Rafael Bautista 391 .235 .281 .294 52 .058 .296 3.1 -3 -0.9 Fernando Ramsey Telmito Agustin 399 .227 .273 .349 62 .122 .296 3.2 -1 -1.1 Lonnie Maclin Adam Brett Walker 370 .185 .249 .399 66 .214 .295 3.3 -6 -1.1 Kirk Asche Osvaldo Abreu 472 .207 .269 .312 52 .105 .286 2.7 -5 -1.2 Erick Monzon Pitchers – Counting Stats Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO Max Scherzer R 34 15 7 2.98 30 30 193.3 148 64 23 50 248 Patrick Corbin L 29 12 8 3.63 32 31 181.0 171 73 21 50 195 Stephen Strasburg R 30 12 7 3.34 25 25 145.3 127 54 16 38 165 Erick Fedde R 26 6 6 4.50 25 22 112.0 118 56 14 39 95 Sean Doolittle L 32 3 1 2.95 43 0 39.7 31 13 6 7 51 Joe Ross R 26 6 5 4.53 18 18 89.3 96 45 13 27 69 Jeremy Hellickson R 32 7 7 4.74 22 22 114.0 120 60 19 31 80 Anibal Sanchez R 35 6 7 4.93 25 22 118.7 121 65 18 40 115 Austin Voth R 27 7 8 4.98 26 24 124.7 133 69 19 52 99 Logan Darnell L 30 6 7 5.09 22 18 99.0 117 56 15 33 58 Austin L. Adams R 28 3 2 3.83 43 0 51.7 40 22 4 37 68 Austen Williams R 26 6 6 4.78 32 12 92.3 98 49 14 33 79 Trevor Rosenthal R 29 3 2 3.48 36 0 33.7 29 13 3 17 46 Justin Miller R 32 5 3 3.86 53 0 56.0 51 24 8 18 62 Tyler Mapes R 27 6 7 5.08 22 19 106.3 123 60 16 35 63 Matt Grace L 30 2 1 3.99 54 1 58.7 61 26 5 18 41 Vidal Nuno L 31 3 3 4.66 33 6 65.7 71 34 13 16 56 Sterling Sharp R 24 8 9 5.21 26 26 133.0 157 77 18 51 74 Andrew Istler R 26 4 4 4.21 42 1 66.3 68 31 7 23 53 Scott Copeland R 31 7 8 5.35 21 21 109.3 124 65 17 50 73 Kyle Barraclough R 29 4 3 4.10 65 0 59.3 49 27 5 40 69 Wander Suero R 27 4 3 4.16 53 0 62.7 63 29 7 22 55 Brady Dragmire R 26 6 7 5.42 29 18 116.3 141 70 18 44 64 Henderson Alvarez R 29 3 3 5.21 10 9 48.3 56 28 7 17 24 Dakota Bacus R 28 3 3 4.82 26 4 56.0 57 30 8 27 48 Koda Glover R 26 3 2 4.32 40 0 41.7 41 20 5 15 38 Aaron Barrett R 31 1 1 4.12 23 0 19.7 18 9 2 10 19 Cesar Vargas R 27 4 5 5.42 25 15 86.3 96 52 13 47 63 Jhon Romero R 24 2 1 4.50 41 0 56.0 55 28 6 29 50 Jordan Mills L 27 3 3 4.66 39 0 48.3 49 25 5 28 41 Jaron Long R 27 7 9 5.57 25 20 124.3 152 77 23 33 68 Joaquin Benoit R 41 3 2 4.68 35 0 32.7 31 17 5 15 28 Sammy Solis L 30 2 2 4.70 57 0 46.0 45 24 7 22 48 Josh Edgin L 32 3 3 4.81 46 0 39.3 38 21 6 22 41 J.J. Hoover R 31 3 3 4.86 54 0 50.0 49 27 8 28 52 David Goforth R 30 3 4 5.37 42 2 58.7 65 35 8 31 41 Kyle McGowin R 27 6 9 5.90 25 23 122.0 137 80 27 48 105 Wil Crowe R 24 6 9 5.83 22 21 100.3 115 65 17 56 74 Tanner Rainey R 26 4 4 5.30 54 0 54.3 47 32 8 46 66 Jimmy Cordero R 27 3 4 5.40 57 0 60.0 62 36 8 40 50 James Bourque R 25 4 5 5.81 31 9 69.7 76 45 13 39 62 John Simms R 27 5 7 5.83 25 15 92.7 105 60 18 41 66 Ronald Pena R 27 2 3 5.55 36 0 47.0 49 29 8 29 43 Roman Mendez R 28 4 5 5.69 41 0 49.0 52 31 10 25 44 Bryan Harper L 29 2 3 6.38 42 0 42.3 48 30 8 31 33 Luis Reyes R 24 6 10 6.62 19 19 89.7 109 66 19 51 55 Pitchers – Rate Stats Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp Max Scherzer 775 11.54 2.33 1.07 .280 142 70 3.03 5.1 Greg Maddux Patrick Corbin 756 9.70 2.49 1.04 .309 117 86 3.40 3.4 Andy Pettitte Stephen Strasburg 597 10.22 2.35 0.99 .298 127 79 3.20 3.2 Bret Saberhagen Erick Fedde 490 7.63 3.13 1.13 .309 94 106 4.26 1.1 Mike LaCoss Sean Doolittle 156 11.57 1.59 1.36 .275 149 67 3.15 0.9 Billy Wagner Joe Ross 388 6.95 2.72 1.31 .302 94 107 4.54 0.9 Mark Knudson Jeremy Hellickson 490 6.32 2.45 1.50 .285 90 112 4.89 0.8 Glenn Abbott Anibal Sanchez 512 8.72 3.03 1.37 .307 89 113 4.27 0.8 Rick Helling Austin Voth 556 7.15 3.75 1.37 .300 85 117 4.94 0.6 Kevin Hodges Logan Darnell 445 5.27 3.00 1.36 .306 86 116 5.13 0.5 Dave Otto Austin L. Adams 232 11.85 6.45 0.70 .300 114 87 3.85 0.5 Jim Kern Austen Williams 406 7.70 3.22 1.36 .305 89 113 4.64 0.4 Doug Potestio Trevor Rosenthal 147 12.30 4.54 0.80 .329 122 82 3.27 0.4 Ernie Camacho Justin Miller 235 9.96 2.89 1.29 .297 110 91 3.86 0.4 Bert Roberge Tyler Mapes 474 5.33 2.96 1.35 .302 84 120 5.08 0.4 Steve Finch Matt Grace 253 6.29 2.76 0.77 .301 106 94 3.93 0.4 Dave Tomlin Vidal Nuno 282 7.68 2.19 1.78 .299 94 106 4.89 0.4 Sam Zoldak Sterling Sharp 605 5.01 3.45 1.22 .307 81 123 5.15 0.3 Jake Joseph Andrew Istler 289 7.19 3.12 0.95 .302 101 99 4.14 0.3 Adrian Devine Scott Copeland 499 6.01 4.12 1.40 .303 82 122 5.37 0.3 Dick Fowler Kyle Barraclough 266 10.47 6.07 0.76 .295 104 97 4.09 0.3 Jack Meyer Wander Suero 272 7.90 3.16 1.01 .304 102 98 4.09 0.2 Rafael Montalvo Brady Dragmire 531 4.95 3.40 1.39 .309 81 124 5.38 0.1 Tony Peguero Henderson Alvarez 216 4.47 3.17 1.30 .295 81 123 5.22 0.1 Stephen Whitmyer Dakota Bacus 251 7.71 4.34 1.29 .297 88 114 4.90 0.1 Mike Bumstead Koda Glover 179 8.21 3.24 1.08 .300 98 102 4.04 0.1 Trey Witte Aaron Barrett 87 8.69 4.58 0.92 .291 103 97 4.22 0.1 Kevin Gryboski Cesar Vargas 400 6.57 4.90 1.36 .305 81 124 5.46 0.1 Danny Kolb Jhon Romero 251 8.04 4.66 0.96 .301 94 106 4.47 0.0 Sam Nahem Jordan Mills 221 7.63 5.21 0.93 .306 94 106 4.72 0.0 Brian Adams Jaron Long 555 4.92 2.39 1.66 .304 79 127 5.43 0.0 Heath Totten Joaquin Benoit 143 7.71 4.13 1.38 .277 91 110 4.89 -0.1 Don McMahon Sammy Solis 204 9.39 4.30 1.37 .304 90 111 4.61 -0.1 Randy Choate Josh Edgin 178 9.38 5.03 1.37 .302 88 113 4.96 -0.1 Sean Fesh J.J. Hoover 226 9.36 5.04 1.44 .301 87 115 4.95 -0.2 Mike Cook David Goforth 270 6.29 4.76 1.23 .305 79 127 5.26 -0.4 Jim Todd Kyle McGowin 549 7.75 3.54 1.99 .304 74 135 5.66 -0.4 Pete Janicki Wil Crowe 470 6.64 5.02 1.52 .309 73 137 5.73 -0.5 Chad Paronto Tanner Rainey 256 10.93 7.62 1.33 .293 80 125 5.34 -0.5 Josh Banks Jimmy Cordero 281 7.50 6.00 1.20 .300 81 123 5.37 -0.5 Ken Wright James Bourque 323 8.01 5.04 1.68 .307 73 137 5.65 -0.5 Eulogio Delacruz John Simms 422 6.41 3.98 1.75 .298 73 137 5.74 -0.5 Wes Wilkerson Ronald Pena 219 8.23 5.55 1.53 .301 76 131 5.58 -0.5 Rick Greene Roman Mendez 223 8.08 4.59 1.84 .298 77 130 5.72 -0.6 Mario Ramos Bryan Harper 206 7.02 6.59 1.70 .305 67 150 6.46 -0.9 Scott Forster Luis Reyes 427 5.52 5.12 1.91 .303 64 156 6.55 -1.2 Mark Woodyard Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA. Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.