2020 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

It’s hard to feel much excitement about the Cubs. They won the World Series when they were one of the best teams in baseball, so to see them in stasis as they pass through the core’s long twilight just doesn’t feel quite right.

I think of the Cubs like one of those expensive, powerful German luxury cars. It was dominating, with an engine that snarled, and looked like it would roll over the mid-size crossovers that were the rest of the NL Central. But it turned out the insurance for the car was expensive, the upkeep and maintenance fell behind, and now it isn’t any more desirable than a late-model, non-luxury brand.

It would not be a shock if this offense, led by stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Báez, was enough to get the Cubs to the top of the division in 2020. But it would no longer be a shock if it doesn’t. Chicago’s outfield is in better shape than that of their World Series rivals, the Cleveland Indians, but it’s not a plus and it’s hard to see many pathways to it becoming so this season. There was a brief moment in 2019 when Jason Heyward’s bat seemed to be coming back to life after a long hibernation, but in the end, he had another Jason Heyward Season. He’s a league-average player, sure, but not only is he not the next Willie Mays, he’s not the next Willie McCovey or Willie Davis, though there are worse things than being Willie Kirkland.

The lineup won’t be horrific anywhere and ought to be able to coast by until the team starts losing some combination of Bryant, Báez, or Rizzo. And that day is approaching; Bryant’s feelings about the organization have to be at near all-time lows, and like Báez, Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber, he’s a free agent after the 2021 season.

The team’s depth has suffered as it has hunkered down financially, and the organization’s ability to lose one of their big three hitters (or practically anyone from the rotation) and survive the division is limited.

Pitchers

As long as everything goes well, the rotation is a decent one, even with Jon Lester on the downswing and Jose Quintana not having gotten near the ceiling that justified the Cubs swapping Eloy Jiménez for him. Lester’s fully into the crafty lefty stage of his career, but as a team’s fourth-best starting pitcher goes, he’s not likely to keep the Cubs from making the playoffs.

ZiPS is all-in on the idea that Yu Darvish is finally back, and after watching the run he had late last summer when he went a month without allowing a walk, I’m also convinced. Unlike a lot of the Cubs, Darvish kept playing well in September, finishing up his season by striking out 14, 13, and 12 batters. In Darvish’s final start, against the playoff-bound Cards, 82 of his 110 pitches were thrown for strikes.

The computer’s always been a fan of Kyle Hendricks, who has never had trouble fooling hitters with a fastball slower than Nolan Ryan’s. (I mean Nolan Ryan’s 2020 fastball.) As long as Hendricks can change speeds effectively, he’ll continue to be a productive borderline All-Star. Signed through 2023 with a mutual option for 2024, he may eventually be the team’s last key contributor from the 2016 championship squad.

The fifth starter position is a concern, one the Cubs have done little to address. Tyler Chatwood is a walking heartburn machine and Alec Mills isn’t likely to be any better. It would have been nice to keep Cole Hamels around for one last year; he played a big part in holding the rotation together early on in 2019.

ZiPS is rather optimistic about Craig Kimbrel; hopefully a healthier season without an odd stint of unemployment, will at least get him back to his Boston form. The bullpen overall projects as a bit above average, with the system liking most of the pitchers likely to get significant time. The projections are quite bullish on Big Trevor Megill, a pitcher taken in the Rule 5 Draft who the team had previously tried to acquire. It’s not the most electric bunch, the bullpen would have to try pretty hard to be less effective than most of last year’s crew.

Prospects

ZiPS has soured on Aramis Ademan thanks to his offensive struggles, but he’s still very young and playing in the low minors, so I wouldn’t be too worried about the weak projection just yet. The computer’s never been a fan of Adbert Alzolay, though his projections improve more than with the typical pitcher if he’s moved to the bullpen. I’m not sure we can really still count him as a prospect at this point, but ZiPS thinks that if Chatwood stumbles, the low-ceiling Jharel Cotton may be the team’s next-best option, preferable to Mills or Alzolay. Cory Abbott’s projection is similar to Cotton’s, though I think it is unlikely that the Cubs turn to him in an emergency without him pitching at Triple-A.

ZiPS is bullish on Miguel Amaya, though the Cubs also have Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini, a more-than-adequate combination. The projections for Nico Hoerner’s upside are rather lackluster, but of the team’s offensive talent, he has the second-best WAR projection for the 2030 season, behind only Amaya! I’m very, very sorry about Hoerner’s top comp; I swear I didn’t just choose that one to be mean.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Kris Bryant R 28 3B 634 543 98 147 32 3 30 79 71 140 5 3
Anthony Rizzo L 30 1B 613 518 82 147 30 3 27 101 70 86 6 4
Javier Báez R 27 SS 590 553 87 151 32 5 31 97 29 158 14 7
Kyle Schwarber L 27 LF 547 470 76 115 22 3 32 84 70 153 2 2
Willson Contreras R 28 C 460 402 54 102 21 2 19 65 46 111 3 3
Addison Russell R 26 2B 426 378 50 92 18 2 12 49 38 98 4 1
Jason Heyward L 30 RF 534 474 67 120 21 4 14 61 53 88 7 3
Ian Happ B 25 CF 552 478 74 117 23 2 23 72 67 168 11 3
Victor Caratini B 26 C 361 319 42 85 17 1 10 42 33 73 1 0
David Bote R 27 2B 439 387 53 94 20 2 14 53 43 115 5 2
Nico Hoerner R 23 SS 508 471 60 127 21 7 8 55 30 59 9 5
Steven Souza Jr. R 31 RF 384 338 44 79 16 2 15 51 40 117 8 3
Miguel Amaya R 21 C 440 386 49 83 20 1 14 49 43 104 1 0
Zack Short R 25 SS 436 372 48 79 18 3 10 37 56 123 7 5
Ian Miller L 28 CF 527 482 56 121 22 4 5 43 34 97 29 6
Dixon Machado R 28 SS 387 341 41 80 16 1 7 38 37 77 3 3
Robel Garcia B 27 2B 473 422 59 92 15 4 19 70 43 167 3 5
Hernán Pérez R 29 2B 402 377 45 97 18 2 12 44 21 83 14 3
Corban Joseph L 31 2B 469 435 48 114 23 1 9 49 27 57 2 1
Albert Almora Jr. R 26 CF 444 414 52 110 21 2 10 44 21 74 4 2
Jonathan Lucroy R 34 C 386 349 37 89 16 2 8 46 29 57 1 0
Trent Giambrone R 26 2B 480 437 54 97 19 1 17 51 36 133 14 6
P.J. Higgins R 27 C 434 385 42 89 16 1 6 34 38 88 3 2
Carlos Asuaje L 28 2B 434 385 45 92 17 4 6 42 39 82 2 2
Ben Zobrist B 39 2B 324 283 40 73 13 1 5 32 36 45 1 1
Donnie Dewees L 26 LF 493 450 53 108 19 6 9 49 33 88 10 5
Daniel Descalso L 33 2B 320 273 37 59 12 2 8 38 41 85 2 1
Mark Zagunis R 27 RF 390 339 43 78 18 1 9 38 43 117 6 3
Jhonny Pereda R 24 C 428 383 39 86 13 1 4 30 41 78 2 2
Tyler Payne R 27 C 317 296 29 63 13 1 8 30 16 73 0 0
Ian Rice R 26 C 318 274 35 54 11 0 9 28 38 98 0 1
Jacob Hannemann L 29 RF 346 314 36 72 15 2 7 31 23 76 16 6
David Masters R 27 SS 322 289 33 57 11 0 8 30 28 92 0 1
Carlos Gonzalez L 34 RF 400 361 49 85 19 1 12 41 34 99 2 2
Josh Phegley R 32 C 299 273 35 65 16 1 8 45 16 57 0 1
Noel Cuevas R 28 CF 362 335 38 82 13 4 7 32 21 76 5 4
Johnny Field R 28 RF 373 347 39 79 22 2 10 40 19 100 8 4
Alfonso Rivas L 23 1B 509 458 51 110 21 3 6 40 43 119 2 3
Cam Balego R 25 3B 421 370 41 74 17 0 7 33 37 99 2 5
Vance Vizcaino L 25 LF 339 310 32 66 10 2 4 24 23 102 18 9
Charcer Burks R 25 LF 484 424 49 87 17 3 6 33 49 145 11 6
Jim Adduci L 35 1B 370 347 38 84 17 2 7 39 18 95 7 3
Aramis Ademan L 21 SS 466 416 43 80 11 7 7 37 38 123 11 9
Jerrick Suiter R 27 1B 420 387 37 82 15 1 5 34 26 108 3 2
Connor Myers R 26 CF 373 345 29 64 13 4 3 23 18 140 10 6

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Kris Bryant .271 .369 .506 125 .236 .314 6.9 -1 4.5 Tony Perez
Anthony Rizzo .284 .388 .510 131 .226 .296 7.4 4 4.3 Norm Cash
Javier Báez .273 .312 .517 110 .244 .330 6.0 4 3.8 Robin Yount
Kyle Schwarber .245 .346 .509 118 .264 .291 6.2 -1 2.5 Dan Pasqua
Willson Contreras .254 .342 .458 106 .204 .305 5.6 -3 2.4 Bruce Edwards
Addison Russell .243 .320 .397 85 .153 .299 4.6 10 2.0 Nick Green
Jason Heyward .253 .332 .403 90 .150 .285 4.9 9 1.8 Terrence Long
Ian Happ .245 .339 .446 102 .201 .328 5.5 -8 1.8 Warren Newson
Victor Caratini .266 .339 .420 96 .154 .318 5.3 -3 1.4 Jerry Grote
David Bote .243 .326 .413 91 .171 .310 4.8 0 1.4 Dale Berra
Nico Hoerner .270 .319 .395 85 .125 .295 4.6 0 1.4 Ronny Cedeno
Steven Souza Jr. .234 .321 .426 92 .192 .311 4.9 2 1.0 Terrell Lowery
Miguel Amaya .215 .302 .381 76 .166 .257 4.0 1 1.0 Henry Blanco
Zack Short .212 .322 .358 77 .145 .289 3.9 0 0.9 Rolando Pino
Ian Miller .251 .307 .344 70 .093 .305 4.2 4 0.9 Chris Roberson
Dixon Machado .235 .313 .349 73 .114 .284 3.8 3 0.8 Brian Grebeck
Robel Garcia .218 .294 .408 80 .190 .309 4.0 2 0.8 Bobby Smith
Hernán Pérez .257 .295 .411 81 .154 .301 4.6 0 0.8 Tommy Shields
Corban Joseph .262 .306 .382 78 .120 .285 4.3 0 0.6 Jack Wilson
Albert Almora Jr. .266 .300 .399 80 .133 .303 4.4 0 0.6 Quinn Mack
Jonathan Lucroy .255 .316 .381 81 .126 .285 4.4 -5 0.5 Jerry Grote
Trent Giambrone .222 .285 .387 73 .165 .279 3.9 0 0.3 Jason Moore
P.J. Higgins .231 .304 .325 64 .094 .285 3.4 0 0.3 Doug Newstrom
Carlos Asuaje .239 .313 .351 73 .112 .290 3.8 -1 0.3 Joe Inglett
Ben Zobrist .258 .340 .364 84 .106 .292 4.5 -5 0.2 Wade Boggs
Donnie Dewees .240 .296 .369 72 .129 .280 3.9 6 0.2 Phil Dauphin
Daniel Descalso .216 .320 .363 78 .147 .283 4.0 -5 0.0 Dave Matranga
Mark Zagunis .230 .324 .369 80 .139 .324 4.2 -2 0.0 Mike Colangelo
Jhonny Pereda .225 .300 .295 56 .070 .272 3.0 2 0.0 Brian Moon
Tyler Payne .213 .259 .345 55 .132 .256 3.1 1 -0.1 Mike Ryan
Ian Rice .197 .302 .336 66 .139 .269 3.3 -4 -0.1 Matt Garrick
Jacob Hannemann .229 .289 .357 67 .127 .281 3.7 2 -0.2 Phil Dauphin
David Masters .197 .274 .318 54 .121 .259 2.9 1 -0.2 Lou Benbow
Carlos Gonzalez .235 .301 .393 79 .158 .292 4.1 -2 -0.2 Shane Spencer
Josh Phegley .238 .289 .392 75 .154 .274 3.9 -7 -0.3 Chad Moeller
Noel Cuevas .245 .294 .370 71 .125 .298 3.8 -3 -0.3 Bubba Crosby
Johnny Field .228 .272 .389 69 .161 .291 3.7 1 -0.4 Todd Dunwoody
Alfonso Rivas .240 .310 .338 69 .098 .312 3.6 3 -0.5 Michael Paulk
Cam Balego .200 .290 .303 55 .103 .254 2.7 2 -0.6 Ryan Stegall
Vance Vizcaino .213 .270 .297 48 .084 .304 2.7 5 -0.8 Tony Triplett
Charcer Burks .205 .295 .302 56 .097 .297 3.0 3 -1.0 Jason Jackson
Jim Adduci .242 .279 .363 66 .121 .314 3.6 -3 -1.1 Jalal Leach
Aramis Ademan .192 .267 .303 48 .111 .255 2.5 -2 -1.2 Cleatus Davidson
Jerrick Suiter .212 .264 .295 46 .083 .281 2.6 3 -1.8 Russ Quetti
Connor Myers .186 .233 .272 31 .087 .302 2.0 -1 -2.0 Rick Christian

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Kyle Hendricks R 30 12 8 3.67 29 29 169.3 162 69 22 37 143 3.96
Yu Darvish R 33 8 5 3.56 27 27 154.3 126 61 19 49 190 3.43
Jose Quintana L 31 12 10 4.27 30 29 164.3 164 78 22 52 149 4.13
Jon Lester L 36 11 9 4.38 27 27 152.0 157 74 24 51 135 4.54
Cory Abbott R 24 8 8 4.64 26 26 132.0 127 68 20 64 136 4.73
Tyler Chatwood R 30 6 6 4.50 30 14 96.0 85 48 9 60 89 4.54
Alec Mills R 28 6 6 4.88 26 21 125.3 130 68 21 43 112 4.79
Jharel Cotton R 28 6 6 4.77 21 17 100.0 98 53 17 40 95 4.81
Jeffrey Passantino R 24 5 4 4.59 25 10 86.3 91 44 15 21 79 4.51
Craig Kimbrel R 32 3 2 3.40 45 0 42.3 28 16 5 23 66 3.44
Casey Sadler R 29 3 2 4.04 44 3 69.0 68 31 10 19 58 4.47
Jeremy Jeffress R 32 4 3 3.70 55 0 58.3 55 24 5 20 51 3.73
Brad Wieck L 28 4 2 3.64 57 0 54.3 40 22 8 26 81 3.71
Duncan Robinson R 26 5 6 5.02 20 19 98.7 112 55 16 28 66 4.95
Jack Patterson L 24 5 5 4.73 25 10 70.3 70 37 8 41 61 4.84
Duane Underwood Jr. R 25 6 6 4.93 38 15 104.0 106 57 16 46 96 4.81
Erich Uelmen R 24 6 6 5.02 18 18 86.0 92 48 10 47 61 5.09
Brock Stewart R 28 5 6 5.08 21 17 90.3 95 51 15 39 75 5.11
Rowan Wick R 27 2 2 4.03 57 0 60.3 53 27 6 32 66 4.03
Brandon Morrow R 35 2 1 3.56 31 0 30.3 28 12 3 10 30 3.58
Adbert Alzolay R 25 4 5 5.10 20 18 83.0 82 47 15 42 86 5.12
Dillon Maples R 28 5 4 4.02 54 0 53.7 35 24 4 53 89 4.02
Trevor Megill R 26 2 2 4.09 36 0 55.0 50 25 9 21 67 4.13
Keegan Thompson R 25 6 7 5.28 20 20 93.7 103 55 18 31 77 5.19
Tony Barnette R 36 1 1 4.00 32 0 36.0 34 16 4 13 34 3.90
Wyatt Short L 25 5 4 4.27 45 0 59.0 56 28 6 32 56 4.38
Tyler Olson L 30 2 1 4.10 46 0 37.3 35 17 5 17 38 4.41
Kyle Ryan L 28 3 3 4.34 68 0 58.0 55 28 6 29 53 4.30
Justin Steele L 24 3 3 5.12 11 11 38.7 38 22 6 23 37 5.22
Ryan Tepera R 32 3 2 4.30 48 0 46.0 43 22 6 19 41 4.53
Oscar De La Cruz R 25 5 6 5.19 29 12 85.0 88 49 14 39 76 5.09
Tyson Miller R 24 7 9 5.43 25 25 122.7 134 74 24 49 101 5.45
Scott Effross R 26 3 3 4.57 37 1 61.0 67 31 7 22 39 4.67
Allen Webster R 30 2 2 5.08 17 6 39.0 42 22 6 19 31 5.28
Matt Swarmer R 26 8 10 5.44 25 23 132.3 149 80 28 40 109 5.35
Danny Hultzen L 30 0 0 4.40 17 1 14.3 11 7 2 10 20 4.51
James Norwood R 26 3 3 4.50 53 0 62.0 55 31 8 39 72 4.57
Rex Brothers L 32 2 2 4.68 38 1 42.3 32 22 3 43 59 4.50
Jason Adam R 28 3 3 4.72 40 1 40.0 36 21 6 23 43 5.01
Xavier Cedeño L 33 1 1 4.66 40 0 29.0 28 15 3 18 26 4.59
Dan Winkler R 30 3 3 4.65 58 0 50.3 46 26 6 29 52 4.57
Craig Brooks R 27 2 2 4.67 42 0 54.0 44 28 6 46 70 4.75
Manuel Rodriguez R 23 3 3 4.76 37 0 45.3 40 24 5 36 52 4.90
Brian Duensing L 37 1 1 4.98 37 0 34.3 37 19 4 15 23 4.75
Bailey Clark R 25 2 2 5.28 29 3 46.0 46 27 5 35 38 5.42
Donnie Dewees L 26 0 0 10.80 5 0 3.3 5 4 1 4 1 10.08
Dakota Mekkes R 25 3 3 5.00 45 0 54.0 48 30 7 40 62 4.96
Ben Hecht R 25 2 2 5.19 41 1 52.0 48 30 6 42 53 5.24
Jesus Camargo R 24 3 4 5.29 33 1 64.7 70 38 11 28 49 5.36
Colin Rea R 29 6 9 5.98 23 22 114.3 126 76 23 58 87 5.98
Trevor Clifton R 25 5 7 6.03 24 21 100.0 111 67 19 55 77 5.94
CD Pelham L 25 2 3 6.04 47 0 44.7 46 30 5 43 37 6.07
Bryan Brickhouse R 28 1 2 6.97 29 0 31.0 34 24 7 23 26 6.86

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Kyle Hendricks 7.6 2.0 1.2 5.3% 20.4% .284 118 85 3.3 Dean Chance
Yu Darvish 11.1 2.9 1.1 7.7% 29.8% .288 121 82 3.2 Bert Blyleven
Jose Quintana 8.2 2.8 1.2 7.4% 21.3% .300 101 99 2.1 Mike Cuellar
Jon Lester 8.0 3.0 1.4 7.8% 20.5% .300 99 101 1.8 Geoff Zahn
Cory Abbott 9.3 4.4 1.4 10.9% 23.2% .299 93 107 1.2 Charlie Haeger
Tyler Chatwood 8.3 5.6 0.8 14.0% 20.7% .284 96 104 0.9 Jim Brosnan
Alec Mills 8.0 3.1 1.5 7.8% 20.4% .299 88 113 0.8 Mickey Callaway
Jharel Cotton 8.6 3.6 1.5 9.2% 21.8% .290 91 110 0.8 John Stuper
Jeffrey Passantino 8.2 2.2 1.6 5.7% 21.4% .304 94 106 0.7 Carlos Silva
Craig Kimbrel 14.0 4.9 1.1 12.8% 36.9% .280 127 79 0.7 Troy Percival
Casey Sadler 7.6 2.5 1.3 6.4% 19.7% .287 107 94 0.6 Dan Quisenberry
Jeremy Jeffress 7.9 3.1 0.8 8.0% 20.5% .294 117 86 0.6 Greg Minton
Brad Wieck 13.4 4.3 1.3 11.4% 35.4% .288 119 84 0.6 Armando Almanza
Duncan Robinson 6.0 2.6 1.5 6.5% 15.2% .302 86 116 0.5 Lary Sorensen
Jack Patterson 7.8 5.2 1.0 12.8% 19.0% .300 91 110 0.5 Walt Masterson
Duane Underwood Jr. 8.3 4.0 1.4 10.0% 20.8% .301 88 114 0.4 Tim Byron
Erich Uelmen 6.4 4.9 1.0 11.9% 15.4% .301 86 116 0.4 Preston Hanna
Brock Stewart 7.5 3.9 1.5 9.7% 18.7% .297 85 118 0.4 Dennis Burtt
Rowan Wick 9.8 4.8 0.9 12.1% 24.9% .297 107 93 0.4 George Smith
Brandon Morrow 8.9 3.0 0.9 7.8% 23.4% .298 121 82 0.4 Dick Drago
Adbert Alzolay 9.3 4.6 1.6 11.3% 23.2% .299 85 118 0.3 Denny Bautista
Dillon Maples 14.9 8.9 0.7 21.1% 35.5% .307 107 93 0.3 Jim Kern
Trevor Megill 11.0 3.4 1.5 8.9% 28.5% .301 106 95 0.3 Bill Simas
Keegan Thompson 7.4 3.0 1.7 7.5% 18.6% .301 82 122 0.2 Nate Cornejo
Tony Barnette 8.5 3.3 1.0 8.5% 22.2% .297 108 93 0.2 Fred Gladding
Wyatt Short 8.5 4.9 0.9 12.1% 21.2% .299 101 99 0.2 Marcelino Lopez
Tyler Olson 9.2 4.1 1.2 10.4% 23.3% .297 105 95 0.2 Tippy Martinez
Kyle Ryan 8.2 4.5 0.9 11.3% 20.7% .295 99 101 0.2 Tippy Martinez
Justin Steele 8.6 5.4 1.4 13.1% 21.0% .296 84 118 0.2 Derek Thompson
Ryan Tepera 8.0 3.7 1.2 9.5% 20.5% .282 100 100 0.2 Eddie Watt
Oscar De La Cruz 8.0 4.1 1.5 10.2% 19.9% .300 83 120 0.1 Tim Byron
Tyson Miller 7.4 3.6 1.8 8.9% 18.4% .299 80 126 0.1 Ron Mathis
Scott Effross 5.8 3.2 1.0 8.1% 14.4% .302 94 106 0.1 Casey Cox
Allen Webster 7.2 4.4 1.4 10.7% 17.4% .303 85 117 0.1 Bennie Daniels
Matt Swarmer 7.4 2.7 1.9 6.9% 18.7% .303 79 126 0.1 Bill King
Danny Hultzen 12.6 6.3 1.3 15.6% 31.3% .290 98 102 0.1 Scott Sauerbeck
James Norwood 10.5 5.7 1.2 14.0% 25.8% .299 96 104 0.1 Clay Bryant
Rex Brothers 12.5 9.1 0.6 21.3% 29.2% .305 92 108 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Jason Adam 9.7 5.2 1.4 12.8% 23.9% .288 91 109 0.0 Mark Acre
Xavier Cedeño 8.1 5.6 0.9 13.7% 19.8% .298 93 108 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Dan Winkler 9.3 5.2 1.1 12.8% 23.0% .294 93 108 0.0 Ted Abernathy
Craig Brooks 11.7 7.7 1.0 18.3% 27.8% .299 93 108 0.0 Clay Bryant
Manuel Rodriguez 10.3 7.1 1.0 17.0% 24.5% .302 91 110 -0.1 Anthony Chavez
Brian Duensing 6.0 3.9 1.0 9.8% 15.0% .300 87 115 -0.1 Darold Knowles
Bailey Clark 7.4 6.8 1.0 16.0% 17.4% .297 82 122 -0.2 Ken Wright
Donnie Dewees 2.7 10.8 2.7 21.1% 5.3% .308 40 250 -0.2 Chad Miles
Dakota Mekkes 10.3 6.7 1.2 16.0% 24.8% .297 86 116 -0.2 Anthony Chavez
Ben Hecht 9.2 7.3 1.0 17.1% 21.6% .298 83 120 -0.3 Dave Cole
Jesus Camargo 6.8 3.9 1.5 9.6% 16.8% .296 82 122 -0.4 Bob Miller
Colin Rea 6.8 4.6 1.8 11.0% 16.6% .294 72 138 -0.6 Robert Ellis
Trevor Clifton 6.9 5.0 1.7 11.9% 16.6% .300 72 140 -0.6 Jake Joseph
CD Pelham 7.5 8.7 1.0 19.3% 16.6% .304 71 140 -0.7 Brian Adams
Bryan Brickhouse 7.5 6.7 2.0 15.3% 17.3% .293 62 161 -0.8 Brad Tweedlie

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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After checking my notes, I can confirm, yes, we are talking about baseball here. Next point of interest?