2020 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

It’s hard to feel much excitement about the Cubs. They won the World Series when they were one of the best teams in baseball, so to see them in stasis as they pass through the core’s long twilight just doesn’t feel quite right.

I think of the Cubs like one of those expensive, powerful German luxury cars. It was dominating, with an engine that snarled, and looked like it would roll over the mid-size crossovers that were the rest of the NL Central. But it turned out the insurance for the car was expensive, the upkeep and maintenance fell behind, and now it isn’t any more desirable than a late-model, non-luxury brand.

It would not be a shock if this offense, led by stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Báez, was enough to get the Cubs to the top of the division in 2020. But it would no longer be a shock if it doesn’t. Chicago’s outfield is in better shape than that of their World Series rivals, the Cleveland Indians, but it’s not a plus and it’s hard to see many pathways to it becoming so this season. There was a brief moment in 2019 when Jason Heyward’s bat seemed to be coming back to life after a long hibernation, but in the end, he had another Jason Heyward Season. He’s a league-average player, sure, but not only is he not the next Willie Mays, he’s not the next Willie McCovey or Willie Davis, though there are worse things than being Willie Kirkland.

The lineup won’t be horrific anywhere and ought to be able to coast by until the team starts losing some combination of Bryant, Báez, or Rizzo. And that day is approaching; Bryant’s feelings about the organization have to be at near all-time lows, and like Báez, Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber, he’s a free agent after the 2021 season.

The team’s depth has suffered as it has hunkered down financially, and the organization’s ability to lose one of their big three hitters (or practically anyone from the rotation) and survive the division is limited.

Pitchers

As long as everything goes well, the rotation is a decent one, even with Jon Lester on the downswing and Jose Quintana not having gotten near the ceiling that justified the Cubs swapping Eloy Jiménez for him. Lester’s fully into the crafty lefty stage of his career, but as a team’s fourth-best starting pitcher goes, he’s not likely to keep the Cubs from making the playoffs.

ZiPS is all-in on the idea that Yu Darvish is finally back, and after watching the run he had late last summer when he went a month without allowing a walk, I’m also convinced. Unlike a lot of the Cubs, Darvish kept playing well in September, finishing up his season by striking out 14, 13, and 12 batters. In Darvish’s final start, against the playoff-bound Cards, 82 of his 110 pitches were thrown for strikes.

The computer’s always been a fan of Kyle Hendricks, who has never had trouble fooling hitters with a fastball slower than Nolan Ryan’s. (I mean Nolan Ryan’s 2020 fastball.) As long as Hendricks can change speeds effectively, he’ll continue to be a productive borderline All-Star. Signed through 2023 with a mutual option for 2024, he may eventually be the team’s last key contributor from the 2016 championship squad.

The fifth starter position is a concern, one the Cubs have done little to address. Tyler Chatwood is a walking heartburn machine and Alec Mills isn’t likely to be any better. It would have been nice to keep Cole Hamels around for one last year; he played a big part in holding the rotation together early on in 2019.

ZiPS is rather optimistic about Craig Kimbrel; hopefully a healthier season without an odd stint of unemployment, will at least get him back to his Boston form. The bullpen overall projects as a bit above average, with the system liking most of the pitchers likely to get significant time. The projections are quite bullish on Big Trevor Megill, a pitcher taken in the Rule 5 Draft who the team had previously tried to acquire. It’s not the most electric bunch, the bullpen would have to try pretty hard to be less effective than most of last year’s crew.

Prospects

ZiPS has soured on Aramis Ademan thanks to his offensive struggles, but he’s still very young and playing in the low minors, so I wouldn’t be too worried about the weak projection just yet. The computer’s never been a fan of Adbert Alzolay, though his projections improve more than with the typical pitcher if he’s moved to the bullpen. I’m not sure we can really still count him as a prospect at this point, but ZiPS thinks that if Chatwood stumbles, the low-ceiling Jharel Cotton may be the team’s next-best option, preferable to Mills or Alzolay. Cory Abbott’s projection is similar to Cotton’s, though I think it is unlikely that the Cubs turn to him in an emergency without him pitching at Triple-A.

ZiPS is bullish on Miguel Amaya, though the Cubs also have Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini, a more-than-adequate combination. The projections for Nico Hoerner’s upside are rather lackluster, but of the team’s offensive talent, he has the second-best WAR projection for the 2030 season, behind only Amaya! I’m very, very sorry about Hoerner’s top comp; I swear I didn’t just choose that one to be mean.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.