2020 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

Cincinnati’s 2020 offense will likely prove to be an interesting challenge for second-year manager David Bell. There’s the potential for a good offense here, but there’s an equal number of scenarios in which the team simply fails to score runs. Outside of Eugenio Suárez, the incumbent third baseman who I’m still amazed was purloined for Alfredo Simon, practically every player in the lineup has a real upside but also, significant questions about a major aspect of their game.

Does Joey Votto have another comeback season left in him? Votto has had downswings before, but the swoons were never anywhere near as deep his .261/.357/.411 line in 2019. 2020 will also be his age-36 season, which isn’t exactly a point in a career where you see many players come roaring back after a collapse. ZiPS does forecast a moderate 2020 recovery, but Votto the Star may be permanently in the rear-view mirror.

The outfield is a particularly devious puzzle to solve as rather than having two or three outfielders who are head-and-shoulders above the rest, the team has a large collection of average-ish players with wildly varying skillsets. They’re a bit like a giant vat of Legos in which the Star Wars set, the Raiders of the Lost Ark set, and the Requiem for a Dream set have all been tossed together, with some scattered Erector parts thrown in; you’re just trying to build a nice little house but keep finding lightsabers and fedoras.

Possibly the best outcome would be if the Reds fully explore Nick Senzel at shortstop. Even better would be a trade involving Corey Seager or Francisco Lindor, but you can hardly bank on a mega-trade like that, and the Reds have a real weakness at short. I like Shogo Akiyama, but his arrival makes it tough for Cincinnati to find playing time for both Senzel and Jesse Winker without sitting Aristides Aquino. I don’t see the Reds doing that; despite a rather poor minor league history prior to 2019, the fact remains that Aquino was second on the team in OPS. Even outside of a trade for a top shortstop, I think it’s quite likely the Reds trade one of the extra outfielders before the season starts.

One can see the lure of signing Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna’s not a star, but he’s an above-average overall outfielder who you can stick in the lineup and forget about.

Cincy’s offense ought to be better than the 12th-place they ranked in scoring in 2019 — while playing in a hitter’s park — but I think all the flipped coins have to come up the same way to get this team much above average.

Pitchers

Now, here is why the Reds are closing in on contention. It’s kind of weird how we got here, to a Reds team that’s powered by their starting pitching. Even stranger is that unlike teams like the Braves, Cincinnati didn’t get to this point by having their stockpile of farm system arms work out. In fact, very few of those young pitchers actually panned out.

The best, of course, is Luis Castillo, pilfered in the Dan Straily trade; if you had Straily now, you couldn’t even fetch the other Luis Castillo in return. At this point last season, it was an open question as to whether the “real” Castillo was the one who struggled early in 2018 or the one whose changeup came roaring back in the second half. As it turned out, it was the latter. ZiPS projects Castillo to be worth somewhere around four wins a year for most of the next decade, with his career outlook now passing 150 wins. (The traditional ones, that is, not the ones above replacement.)

Even with some regression projected from Sonny Gray, a better projected year from Trevor Bauer is enough to give the Reds a real argument for having the best rotation in the NL Central. Our depth charts already think so, and it does not appear that ZiPS is going to disagree much.

Some may wonder what the purpose of signing Wade Miley was, but that kind of depth is necessary for a team entering contention. Tyler Mahle looks like the odd man out at the moment, but pitchers being pitchers, someone will get injured and the team does not have much in the way of depth here.

ZiPS is less enthralled with the team’s bullpen. Only Raisel Iglesias projects to have an ERA+ of at least 120 and the quality drops off quickly after Cody Reed. It’s not a bottom-tier bullpen, but it could use at least one more significant arm. Unfortunately, this wasn’t a great offseason to shop for relievers, with a small free agent class resulting in some of its better arms, like Drew Pomeranz and Will Smith, signing very quickly.

The biggest X-factor here may be José De León. With significant injuries derailing his career — most notably a Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2018 — and too many walks upon his 2019 return, ZiPS is being extremely conservative here. De León’s velocity sat in the low-90s in 2019, but pitching in relief may help that velocity rebound in 2020. He was a legitimate top prospect for the Dodgers at one point, so I like to think there’s still some upside remaining here.

Combine the pitching with the offense and the Reds smell like team bound for 85 or so wins in 2020. But that’s not bad news; this offseason, the rest of the division has largely behaved like they intend to put 85-win teams on the field also.

Prospects

The farm system is middle-of-the-pack, but not likely to make major contributions to the 2020 team barring trades that fetch other players. Of the 10 players with a future value of at least 45 on THE BOARD, only four are at Double-A or higher. Jonathan India doesn’t really have a position at the moment, as the team isn’t using him at shortstop and the outfield’s a bit too clogged to shove Suárez out there. Tyler Stephenson’s not ready to supplant Tucker Barnhart, and ZiPS sees neither Tony Santillan nor Jose Siri as above replacement-level.

Usually, teams have a few fringe prospects who interest ZiPS, but with the Reds, there isn’t really anyone aside from Alex Powers, a fastball-slider-change reliever who fared admirably in the Pacific Coast League. Perhaps Cincinnati will be more aggressive at signing veterans to minor league contracts in the final month of the offseason because there are plenty of open spots on the Louisville Bats.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Eugenio Suárez R 28 3B 631 550 83 144 24 2 37 107 67 169 4 3
Mike Moustakas L 31 2B 566 512 72 138 28 1 33 95 45 95 3 1
Joey Votto L 36 1B 563 472 70 129 26 1 16 59 82 104 4 0
Shogo Akiyama L 32 CF 655 600 79 164 32 5 18 71 48 106 10 7
Tucker Barnhart L 29 C 413 362 35 90 19 1 10 46 45 82 1 1
Jesse Winker L 26 LF 414 359 52 101 20 1 12 46 48 67 1 2
Nick Senzel R 25 CF 457 414 59 108 25 4 13 52 38 118 14 6
Freddy Galvis B 30 SS 609 567 65 144 30 4 15 74 34 135 7 4
Aristides Aquino R 26 RF 526 486 67 115 20 4 30 90 34 161 8 3
Phil Ervin R 27 LF 448 397 53 97 19 5 14 52 39 112 14 8
Mark Payton L 28 LF 411 372 51 95 19 4 15 50 33 88 5 4
Christian Colón R 31 3B 486 428 48 106 22 1 6 40 40 66 13 8
Francisco Pena R 30 C 261 246 28 62 14 0 9 32 12 50 1 0
Jonathan India R 23 3B 491 430 53 98 14 4 14 41 45 137 8 5
Tyler Stephenson R 23 C 402 358 44 82 16 1 9 40 33 93 0 0
Nick Martini L 30 LF 422 370 50 96 17 2 7 37 46 85 3 1
Josh VanMeter L 25 LF 499 445 60 110 25 3 17 60 48 115 12 5
Matt Davidson R 29 1B 484 437 57 102 22 0 26 76 36 153 1 0
Scott Schebler L 29 CF 429 384 49 89 18 2 16 52 34 107 2 3
Kyle Farmer R 29 C 317 293 32 70 16 1 8 37 18 70 3 1
Boog Powell L 27 CF 378 331 46 80 15 1 6 28 41 95 11 4
Alex Blandino R 27 2B 369 313 41 65 15 1 8 29 43 111 3 4
Curt Casali R 31 C 279 248 28 58 10 0 8 33 26 67 0 1
Chadwick Tromp R 25 C 236 212 25 48 9 1 6 24 18 56 1 2
Travis Jankowski L 29 CF 329 293 39 71 10 1 2 16 33 73 16 7
Michael Lorenzen R 28 P 49 45 6 11 2 0 2 10 4 9 0 0
Sherman Johnson L 29 2B 332 290 35 59 11 2 6 27 37 89 5 3
Rob Refsnyder R 29 RF 331 297 36 71 15 2 7 29 28 87 2 2
Michael De Leon B 23 SS 544 514 48 122 19 0 5 33 21 79 2 3
Blake Trahan R 26 SS 472 428 44 91 15 2 5 29 33 113 6 5
Narciso Crook R 24 LF 374 345 35 72 15 6 9 38 23 122 8 4
Stuart Fairchild R 24 CF 467 421 48 90 18 4 10 42 35 127 7 7
Jose Garcia R 22 SS 509 473 49 104 23 2 8 44 20 121 12 6
Jose Siri R 24 CF 512 472 52 96 16 6 14 52 32 195 21 8
Kyle O. Wren L 29 CF 390 346 39 77 12 5 4 29 37 92 12 6
Ibandel Isabel R 25 1B 419 386 50 73 10 1 27 66 27 219 0 1
Stuart Turner R 28 C 162 148 12 27 4 0 2 10 10 51 1 1
TJ Friedl L 24 RF 453 401 48 88 15 5 7 36 38 111 15 8
Chris Okey R 25 C 283 259 25 46 8 1 8 26 19 107 1 0
Alfredo Rodriguez R 26 SS 500 471 43 106 15 2 2 27 22 98 10 7
Michael Beltre L 24 RF 407 360 40 77 10 4 5 29 41 113 7 6
Brantley Bell R 25 2B 449 415 40 91 16 2 6 34 25 110 13 6
Samir Dueñez L 24 1B 477 438 48 94 18 2 13 50 32 122 3 1
Michael O’Neill R 28 LF 428 393 40 80 14 2 8 30 25 144 13 4
Jameson Hannah L 22 CF 496 462 44 103 21 3 3 29 27 121 8 10

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Eugenio Suárez .262 .349 .515 122 .253 .311 6.5 1 3.8 Ken McMullen
Mike Moustakas .270 .332 .521 118 .252 .273 6.4 -7 2.6 Graig Nettles
Joey Votto .273 .384 .434 114 .161 .321 6.3 3 2.5 Keith Hernandez
Shogo Akiyama .273 .331 .433 98 .160 .307 5.3 -3 1.9 Shannon Stewart
Tucker Barnhart .249 .333 .390 89 .141 .296 4.6 7 1.9 Brian Schneider
Jesse Winker .281 .372 .443 112 .162 .318 6.1 -2 1.4 Jeremy Giambi
Nick Senzel .261 .326 .435 97 .174 .336 5.2 -1 1.4 Troy O’Leary
Freddy Galvis .254 .297 .400 80 .146 .309 4.3 3 1.3 Leo Durocher
Aristides Aquino .237 .291 .479 96 .243 .288 5.0 2 1.2 Karim Garcia
Phil Ervin .244 .322 .423 93 .179 .306 4.8 4 1.1 Benny Agbayani
Mark Payton .255 .315 .449 97 .194 .297 5.0 2 0.9 Jeff Inglin
Christian Colón .248 .319 .346 74 .098 .281 3.9 7 0.9 Todd Haney
Francisco Pena .252 .287 .419 81 .167 .283 4.4 3 0.9 Yamid Haad
Jonathan India .228 .316 .377 80 .149 .301 4.1 2 0.8 Adam Morrissey
Tyler Stephenson .229 .303 .355 72 .126 .285 3.8 3 0.8 Matt Treanor
Nick Martini .259 .344 .373 88 .114 .320 4.7 2 0.7 Stu Pederson
Josh VanMeter .247 .321 .431 95 .184 .297 5.0 -3 0.6 Brandon Jones
Matt Davidson .233 .302 .462 96 .229 .295 4.9 -2 0.6 Bubba Smith
Scott Schebler .232 .305 .414 86 .182 .280 4.3 -2 0.5 Luke Allen
Kyle Farmer .239 .290 .382 74 .143 .288 4.0 0 0.4 Bob Melvin
Boog Powell .242 .324 .347 76 .106 .322 4.1 -1 0.4 Dave Brundage
Alex Blandino .208 .321 .339 73 .131 .294 3.5 0 0.3 Jeff Patzke
Curt Casali .234 .309 .371 77 .137 .289 4.0 -3 0.2 Keith McDonald
Chadwick Tromp .226 .294 .363 71 .137 .280 3.6 0 0.2 Scott Hatteberg
Travis Jankowski .242 .323 .304 66 .061 .317 3.6 1 0.2 Mark Gilbert
Michael Lorenzen .244 .306 .422 88 .178 .265 4.6 0 0.1 Eddie Watt
Sherman Johnson .203 .297 .317 61 .114 .272 3.2 0 -0.2 Drew Niles
Rob Refsnyder .239 .308 .374 77 .135 .315 4.0 -1 -0.2 Jeff Wetherby
Michael De Leon .237 .271 .304 50 .066 .272 2.8 7 -0.4 David Milstien
Blake Trahan .213 .275 .292 49 .079 .277 2.7 6 -0.4 Milko Jaramillo
Narciso Crook .209 .265 .365 63 .157 .294 3.3 5 -0.4 Luis Saturria
Stuart Fairchild .214 .287 .347 65 .133 .282 3.2 -2 -0.5 Karl Herren
Jose Garcia .220 .268 .328 55 .108 .279 3.0 1 -0.5 Danny Klassen
Jose Siri .203 .255 .352 57 .148 .312 3.2 3 -0.6 Camilo Veras
Kyle O. Wren .223 .297 .321 62 .098 .292 3.3 -3 -0.6 Jeff Duncan
Ibandel Isabel .189 .251 .430 73 .241 .329 3.5 -1 -0.7 Tate Seefried
Stuart Turner .182 .242 .250 30 .068 .263 1.9 -1 -0.8 Dave Ullery
TJ Friedl .219 .302 .334 66 .115 .286 3.5 -1 -0.8 Terry Joseph
Chris Okey .178 .241 .309 43 .131 .264 2.5 -2 -0.8 Gary Tremblay
Alfredo Rodriguez .225 .265 .278 43 .053 .280 2.5 6 -0.9 Mike Terhune
Michael Beltre .214 .297 .306 59 .092 .298 3.0 0 -1.0 Kevin Koslofski
Brantley Bell .219 .270 .311 52 .092 .284 2.9 -1 -1.0 Milko Jaramillo
Samir Dueñez .215 .267 .354 61 .139 .267 3.3 -1 -1.5 John Lindsey
Michael O’Neill .204 .259 .310 48 .107 .299 2.9 -3 -1.8 Stephen Turgeon
Jameson Hannah .223 .271 .301 50 .078 .296 2.6 -5 -1.9 Rick Bernardo

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Trevor Bauer R 29 13 9 3.74 31 31 190.3 166 79 23 72 222 3.55
Luis Castillo R 27 12 9 3.59 30 30 175.3 145 70 22 63 198 3.63
Sonny Gray R 30 11 8 3.82 28 28 158.0 132 67 20 59 171 3.78
Tyler Mahle R 25 10 9 4.38 29 29 146.0 144 71 22 47 146 4.10
Anthony DeSclafani R 30 8 8 4.54 26 26 140.7 141 71 27 39 137 4.56
Michael Lorenzen R 28 3 2 3.71 64 1 77.7 70 32 8 31 74 3.81
Wade Miley L 33 8 9 4.90 27 27 132.3 140 72 21 54 109 4.82
Raisel Iglesias R 30 7 5 3.58 63 0 65.3 54 26 10 22 80 3.73
Reiver Sanmartin L 24 8 9 4.85 25 24 118.7 128 64 20 39 93 4.79
Lucas Sims R 26 4 5 4.79 35 20 114.7 100 61 23 59 151 4.70
Sal Romano R 26 7 8 4.78 42 15 111.0 114 59 17 43 102 4.50
Brooks Raley L 32 8 9 5.24 26 26 147.7 163 86 25 66 113 5.19
Cody Reed L 27 3 2 3.81 53 0 56.7 49 24 7 26 68 3.76
Jose De Leon R 27 2 3 4.84 20 15 61.3 59 33 11 31 70 4.75
Amir Garrett L 28 4 3 4.03 68 0 60.3 50 27 9 31 79 4.04
Jackson Stephens R 26 6 7 4.95 41 11 103.7 107 57 17 45 93 4.82
Joel Kuhnel R 25 5 4 4.11 53 0 61.3 61 28 7 22 53 4.01
Packy Naughton L 24 9 12 5.34 28 28 145.0 160 86 27 45 109 5.03
Alex Powers R 28 2 2 4.20 40 1 49.3 43 23 8 22 60 4.19
Robert Stephenson R 27 3 3 4.21 63 0 66.3 53 31 10 38 89 4.17
Matthew Bowman R 29 2 2 4.23 55 0 61.7 57 29 7 28 60 4.07
Ryan Lillie R 24 6 9 5.39 25 24 120.3 132 72 21 51 88 5.26
Zach Duke L 37 3 2 4.13 44 0 32.7 30 15 3 17 30 4.10
Ryan Nutof R 24 4 4 4.37 45 0 57.7 55 28 6 31 54 4.27
Ryan Hendrix R 25 4 3 4.46 36 0 40.3 34 20 6 26 51 4.52
Tony Santillan R 23 5 7 5.51 22 22 111.0 119 68 20 57 91 5.42
Josh D. Smith L 30 4 5 4.91 44 4 69.7 66 38 10 41 75 4.66
Tejay Antone R 26 8 11 5.52 25 24 130.3 143 80 26 52 105 5.36
R.J. Alaniz R 29 3 3 4.74 44 1 57.0 55 30 8 28 60 4.37
Justin Shafer R 27 3 3 4.63 57 0 68.0 66 35 9 36 63 4.64
Rob W00t3n R 34 2 2 5.56 11 7 34.0 39 21 8 7 27 5.27
Eric Stout L 27 2 3 5.31 29 6 62.7 66 37 10 33 52 5.17
Cory Thompson R 25 4 5 4.80 46 0 60.0 64 32 8 24 45 4.61
David D. Carpenter R 34 1 1 5.04 34 0 30.3 30 17 5 16 29 4.99
Keury Mella R 26 8 11 5.68 27 25 130.0 146 82 25 61 98 5.58
Tim Collins L 30 2 3 5.21 46 0 38.0 36 22 6 26 42 5.07
Tyler Jay L 26 3 4 5.52 35 6 73.3 81 45 13 38 57 5.48
Brad Boxberger R 32 3 4 5.40 44 0 40.0 37 24 8 27 50 5.31
Vladimir Gutierrez R 24 7 10 5.88 27 27 134.7 149 88 32 49 117 5.62
Junichi Tazawa R 34 2 2 5.91 37 0 35.0 38 23 8 15 32 5.61
Tyler Thornburg R 31 1 2 5.95 41 1 42.3 42 28 10 25 46 5.85
Andy Cox L 26 3 4 5.67 44 0 46.0 41 29 5 47 51 5.44
Jordan Johnson R 26 5 8 6.33 20 19 85.3 95 60 19 53 70 6.30
Brad Markey R 28 4 7 6.17 29 12 84.7 103 58 21 30 56 6.14
Johendi Jiminian R 27 3 6 6.37 27 13 82.0 95 58 17 46 56 6.19

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Trevor Bauer 10.5 3.4 1.1 8.9% 27.5% .298 116 86 3.6 Jim Maloney
Luis Castillo 10.2 3.2 1.1 8.6% 27.1% .280 121 83 3.6 Ken Hill
Sonny Gray 9.7 3.4 1.1 9.0% 25.9% .277 114 88 2.9 Ken Hill
Tyler Mahle 9.0 2.9 1.4 7.5% 23.3% .302 99 101 1.8 Bill Long
Anthony DeSclafani 8.8 2.5 1.7 6.5% 23.0% .293 96 104 1.5 Jake Westbrook
Michael Lorenzen 8.6 3.6 0.9 9.3% 22.2% .287 117 85 0.9 Eddie Watt
Wade Miley 7.4 3.7 1.4 9.2% 18.6% .300 89 113 0.9 Dutch Ruether
Raisel Iglesias 11.0 3.0 1.4 8.1% 29.6% .282 121 82 0.9 Manny Sarmiento
Reiver Sanmartin 7.1 3.0 1.5 7.5% 17.9% .298 90 112 0.8 Dick Ellsworth
Lucas Sims 11.9 4.6 1.8 11.8% 30.1% .293 91 110 0.8 Russ Ortiz
Sal Romano 8.3 3.5 1.4 8.8% 20.9% .303 91 110 0.7 Howie Fox
Brooks Raley 6.9 4.0 1.5 9.9% 16.9% .302 83 121 0.5 Mike Hampton
Cody Reed 10.8 4.1 1.1 10.6% 27.8% .298 114 88 0.5 Bob McClure
Jose De Leon 10.3 4.5 1.6 11.3% 25.5% .304 90 111 0.4 Lee Tunnell
Amir Garrett 11.8 4.6 1.3 11.8% 30.2% .293 108 93 0.4 Sid Monge
Jackson Stephens 8.1 3.9 1.5 9.8% 20.2% .299 88 114 0.3 Marino Pieretti
Joel Kuhnel 7.8 3.2 1.0 8.2% 19.9% .298 106 95 0.3 Donnie Moore
Packy Naughton 6.8 2.8 1.7 7.1% 17.1% .297 81 123 0.3 Bobby Livingston
Alex Powers 10.9 4.0 1.5 10.3% 28.2% .292 104 97 0.3 Ryan Speier
Robert Stephenson 12.1 5.2 1.4 13.2% 30.9% .289 103 97 0.3 Mark Acre
Matthew Bowman 8.8 4.1 1.0 10.4% 22.3% .292 103 97 0.3 Eddie Watt
Ryan Lillie 6.6 3.8 1.6 9.4% 16.2% .296 81 124 0.2 Jake Joseph
Zach Duke 8.3 4.7 0.8 11.6% 20.5% .290 105 95 0.2 Joe Gibbon
Ryan Nutof 8.4 4.8 0.9 12.0% 20.9% .299 99 101 0.2 Hal Reniff
Ryan Hendrix 11.4 5.8 1.3 14.4% 28.2% .292 97 103 0.1 Clay Bryant
Tony Santillan 7.4 4.6 1.6 11.2% 17.9% .297 79 127 0.0 Justin Sturge
Josh D. Smith 9.7 5.3 1.3 13.0% 23.8% .303 89 113 0.0 John Curtis
Tejay Antone 7.3 3.6 1.8 8.9% 18.0% .298 79 127 0.0 Michael Macdonald
R.J. Alaniz 9.5 4.4 1.3 11.1% 23.7% .305 92 109 0.0 Mike Bumstead
Justin Shafer 8.3 4.8 1.2 11.8% 20.7% .295 94 107 0.0 Joe Hudson
Rob W00t3n 7.1 1.9 2.1 4.8% 18.4% .301 78 128 0.0 Frank Lary
Eric Stout 7.5 4.7 1.4 11.6% 18.2% .299 82 122 -0.1 Ted Bowsfield
Cory Thompson 6.8 3.6 1.2 9.0% 16.9% .301 91 110 -0.1 Jack Cassel
David D. Carpenter 8.6 4.7 1.5 11.7% 21.2% .294 86 116 -0.1 Milo Candini
Keury Mella 6.8 4.2 1.7 10.3% 16.5% .300 77 131 -0.2 Jake Joseph
Tim Collins 9.9 6.2 1.4 14.9% 24.0% .300 83 120 -0.2 Tippy Martinez
Tyler Jay 7.0 4.7 1.6 11.2% 16.9% .302 79 127 -0.3 Wade Blasingame
Brad Boxberger 11.3 6.1 1.8 14.8% 27.3% .299 81 124 -0.4 Jason Bullard
Vladimir Gutierrez 7.8 3.3 2.1 8.2% 19.5% .297 74 135 -0.5 Ryan Hancock
Junichi Tazawa 8.2 3.9 2.1 9.6% 20.4% .297 74 136 -0.5 Bob Miller
Tyler Thornburg 9.8 5.3 2.1 13.0% 23.8% .291 73 137 -0.5 Dick Selma
Andy Cox 10.0 9.2 1.0 20.8% 22.6% .300 77 131 -0.5 Philip Barzilla
Jordan Johnson 7.4 5.6 2.0 13.2% 17.4% .297 69 146 -0.7 Edwin Morel
Brad Markey 6.0 3.2 2.2 7.8% 14.5% .300 71 142 -0.7 Eddie Bonine
Johendi Jiminian 6.1 5.0 1.9 11.9% 14.5% .298 68 146 -0.9 Danny Kolb

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Mike Green
Member
Member
Mike Green

Manny Sarmiento. It’s funny how just reading his name brings him back.

If the projections are right, it looks like you ought to bat Joey Votto leadoff with this club.

RealCarlAllen
Member

Votto or Winker, both fine options if not for the “but they aren’t fast” stigma.