2020 ZiPS Projections: Colorado Rockies by Dan Szymborski December 6, 2019 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. ZiPS Projections 2020 2019 ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters The 2019 Colorado Rockies ranked fourth in the National League in runs scored, which is actually a rather bleak ranking for a team that plays at Coors Field. “OMGTEHCOORSHANGOVER” has become a convenient excuse for the club’s struggles — at least when they accidentally suggest they’re aware there are struggles — but it’s become a bit of a crutch when talking about the team. There appears to be an effect, but a minor one, unlikely to be worth more than three-to-five points of OPS for Rockies hitters. ZiPS doesn’t take into consideration any “Coors hangover,” and if this were a big deal, then ZiPS would be systematically too optimistic on players going to Coors and too pessimistic on players leaving. But it is not. I feel like we’ve been over this story a billion times, but very little has changed in Colorado. The team’s offense is largely reliant on having two-to-three players in any given season being MVP candidates, with Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story likely being those two players again in 2020. Ryan McMahon and David Dahl both receive projections that are kinda disappointing, but it’s hard to forget that Dahl’s injury history is long and the Rockies spent two prime development years jerking McMahon around. The team has done a lousy job developing secondary offensive talent, and they showed little interest in a meaningless stretch drive to look at some of these fringe players, like Dom Nunez or Roberto Ramos or Peter Mooney, by giving them playing time in the majors. There was no guarantee Mike Tauchman would even be good for the Yankees in 2019, but there was certainly more of a chance he’d contribute to the Rockies than Ian Desmond. The Nationals really ought to have voted Desmond a playoff share; him turning down a seven-year, $105 million contract offer from the Washington was a big boost to that team’s successful run. Pitchers ZiPS has long been a big fan of German Marquez, and a relatively meh 2019 hasn’t really changed its silicon-based feelings. Sure, a 4.76 ERA doesn’t pop out at you as a good thing, but some of this has to do with the level of offense jumping considerably in baseball thanks to home runs by the bucket. You expect a pitcher to fail to match their FIP in Coors; it’s actually more of a BABIP park than a home run park. ZiPS expects Marquez’s FIP vs. ERA margin to shrink and for him to have a general return to form, if not quite as shiny a projection as his 2018 line. Similarly, ZiPS projects Jon Gray to be an excellent No. 2 starter. The problem with their rotation is what comes behind them. Kyle Freeland can hardly be counted on given his 2019 season, and the depth behind him has become relatively thin. It’s a team that ought to be playing in free agency. However, it appears unlikely that the Rockies are going to open up their wallets this winter to fix the offense or the back of the rotation. Again, they’ve publicly identified the bullpen as their biggest problem, and while it stunk in 2019, I’d argue the problem is the pitchers the Rockies decide they want in their bullpen. Whereas most successful teams have a few relievers they identified off the scrap heap, the Rockies paid retail for established relievers, which is dangerous given the attrition rate of non-elite relievers. ZiPS is naturally suspicious of minor league pitchers, but it sees two the team let leave as minor league free agents, Matt Pierpont and Alexander Guillen, as being as interesting as any of the team’s cadre of overpaid relievers. Just like with the fringe players on the offense, the Rockies couldn’t have been less interested in using September to look at some of these guys at the major league level. Prospects One of the things that has allowed the Rockies to moderately thrive despite mismanagement at the major league level is the fact that the team’s farm system was extremely productive during the mid-2010s. Sure, they avoided trading practically every veteran at the peak of their value and have spent more than $250 million in the last five years in free agency for WAR that is below zero, but when you develop/acquire Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Dahl, Marquez, Gray, etc. and don’t have to pay them anything, that makes up for a lot of sins. But that group is getting more expensive and the farm system isn’t producing as it once did. In terms of future value, at the end of the 2018 season, Colorado’s farm ranked 28th on THE BOARD. The team still has Brendan Rodgers, and hopefully they’ll either clear a spot for him or trade him for someone they will use and not take their typical middle ground of shuffling their prospects up and down to the minors so as not to interfere with the playing time of their veterans. One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Batters – Standard Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Nolan Arenado R 29 3B 151 573 98 171 35 4 37 117 63 101 3 2 Trevor Story R 27 SS 151 580 97 159 36 5 36 99 54 179 20 7 Charlie Blackmon L 33 RF 141 578 106 172 33 7 27 76 44 113 6 6 Brendan Rodgers R 23 2B 95 349 48 96 19 2 13 48 23 80 4 2 Ryan McMahon L 25 2B 144 477 65 124 26 3 20 75 48 153 7 2 Colton Welker R 22 3B 115 439 51 122 24 1 16 62 31 102 3 1 David Dahl L 26 LF 107 390 63 109 24 4 19 64 31 115 6 4 Daniel Murphy L 35 1B 121 433 60 128 31 2 15 74 32 65 2 1 Garrett Hampson R 25 2B 129 466 61 124 20 7 9 45 38 109 28 7 Yonathan Daza R 26 CF 126 493 59 146 27 4 6 46 25 85 11 8 Yonder Alonso L 33 1B 123 373 53 100 19 0 19 68 47 86 1 1 Josh Fuentes R 27 3B 128 482 61 124 26 5 15 61 21 132 3 3 Raimel Tapia L 26 LF 138 467 64 135 28 7 10 51 25 99 13 5 Tony Wolters L 28 C 109 312 37 77 15 2 3 36 34 64 1 1 Dom Nunez L 25 C 86 301 40 65 13 1 12 38 36 94 4 2 Peter Mooney L 29 2B 101 330 39 83 17 3 5 33 31 57 4 2 Elliot Soto R 30 SS 106 351 43 89 15 5 5 32 32 79 5 3 Eric Stamets R 28 SS 99 326 38 71 14 2 8 33 24 102 10 1 Brian Serven R 25 C 73 252 29 55 12 1 7 25 17 70 1 3 Roberto Ramos L 25 1B 123 447 62 112 22 1 20 63 45 160 2 2 Chris Rabago R 27 C 71 244 26 54 10 2 3 20 23 68 9 5 Craig Gentry R 36 CF 82 196 21 50 7 2 2 16 15 45 10 4 Ryan Vilade R 21 3B 132 526 66 131 20 6 9 47 43 128 15 10 Tyler Nevin R 23 1B 128 479 60 124 23 3 13 53 45 104 5 2 Alan Trejo R 24 SS 121 450 48 107 19 2 11 45 22 124 5 6 Ian Desmond R 34 CF 127 441 64 113 21 4 16 63 34 116 9 4 Noel Cuevas R 28 CF 101 335 41 89 14 5 7 36 21 72 5 5 Drew Butera R 36 C 79 217 26 50 11 1 5 27 21 59 1 0 Chris Iannetta R 37 C 72 199 24 42 10 0 7 25 28 69 0 0 Mark Reynolds R 36 1B 108 298 39 68 13 0 14 50 36 106 2 0 Sam Hilliard L 26 RF 141 539 74 128 22 5 22 68 47 197 22 11 Vince Fernandez L 24 LF 98 348 45 73 15 3 14 43 36 159 4 5 Bret Boswell L 25 2B 108 408 49 90 15 2 15 46 25 150 5 7 Brian Mundell R 26 LF 118 437 55 115 25 2 9 44 40 94 2 2 Vance Vizcaino L 25 LF 88 310 34 73 11 2 4 27 23 97 19 10 Drew Weeks R 27 LF 116 409 52 101 18 5 13 50 27 102 6 8 Mylz Jones R 26 RF 114 404 43 97 14 3 8 35 17 106 15 10 Batters – Advanced Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Nolan Arenado 646 .298 .367 .567 126 .269 .308 8.0 9 4.5 Aramis Ramirez Trevor Story 643 .274 .341 .540 113 .266 .337 7.0 6 3.9 Jhonny Peralta Charlie Blackmon 635 .298 .355 .519 112 .221 .331 7.0 -2 1.9 Gary Ward Brendan Rodgers 381 .275 .328 .453 90 .178 .324 5.5 3 1.1 Jose Vidro Ryan McMahon 531 .260 .328 .453 91 .193 .342 5.5 -2 1.0 Dale Sveum Colton Welker 480 .278 .324 .446 88 .169 .330 5.4 2 0.9 Scott Hodges David Dahl 428 .279 .333 .508 104 .228 .352 6.3 -1 0.9 Ivan Calderon Daniel Murphy 472 .296 .345 .480 101 .185 .320 6.4 -1 0.7 Jeff Conine Garrett Hampson 513 .266 .322 .397 77 .131 .330 5.0 2 0.7 Royce Clayton Yonathan Daza 526 .296 .331 .404 81 .108 .348 5.0 3 0.7 Skip Schumaker Yonder Alonso 424 .268 .351 .472 101 .204 .302 6.1 -2 0.6 Cecil Fielder Josh Fuentes 515 .257 .295 .425 75 .168 .325 4.5 7 0.6 Jose Leon Raimel Tapia 496 .289 .325 .443 88 .154 .349 5.5 3 0.6 R.J. Reynolds Tony Wolters 357 .247 .330 .337 66 .090 .302 3.9 7 0.6 Dennis Anderson Dom Nunez 344 .216 .303 .385 69 .169 .272 4.0 4 0.5 Blake Barthol Peter Mooney 367 .252 .319 .367 69 .115 .291 4.2 5 0.3 Tim Cullen Elliot Soto 390 .254 .318 .368 69 .114 .315 4.2 2 0.3 Kevin Stocker Eric Stamets 362 .218 .279 .347 54 .129 .292 3.6 8 0.3 Erick Monzon Brian Serven 279 .218 .275 .357 55 .139 .274 3.2 8 0.2 Jeff Winchester Roberto Ramos 500 .251 .324 .438 86 .188 .345 5.1 1 0.2 Joe Vitiello Chris Rabago 273 .221 .293 .316 51 .094 .295 3.2 6 0.1 Luis Taveras Craig Gentry 216 .255 .313 .342 62 .087 .322 4.0 3 0.1 Willie McGee Ryan Vilade 586 .249 .307 .361 65 .112 .314 3.9 6 -0.1 Justin Sellers Tyler Nevin 530 .259 .325 .401 78 .142 .307 4.8 2 -0.1 Alvin Moore Alan Trejo 484 .238 .278 .362 57 .124 .305 3.4 6 -0.2 Mark Farris Ian Desmond 483 .256 .313 .431 82 .175 .314 4.9 -9 -0.2 Jalal Leach Noel Cuevas 362 .266 .313 .400 75 .134 .320 4.4 -3 -0.3 Bubba Crosby Drew Butera 243 .230 .302 .359 63 .129 .294 3.9 -4 -0.4 Joe Oliver Chris Iannetta 232 .211 .315 .367 68 .156 .285 4.0 -5 -0.4 Chad Kreuter Mark Reynolds 339 .228 .313 .413 77 .185 .303 4.6 -2 -0.4 Jeff Manto Sam Hilliard 592 .237 .300 .419 75 .182 .331 4.5 1 -0.4 Brad Snyder Vince Fernandez 390 .210 .290 .391 66 .181 .337 3.7 5 -0.4 Brent Gjesdal Bret Boswell 441 .221 .271 .377 58 .157 .309 3.3 3 -0.6 Travis Metcalf Brian Mundell 484 .263 .327 .391 77 .128 .317 4.6 -5 -0.7 Tim McWilliam Vance Vizcaino 339 .235 .291 .323 52 .087 .330 3.3 5 -0.7 Tony Triplett Drew Weeks 446 .247 .300 .411 73 .164 .299 4.1 -7 -1.2 Greg Connors Mylz Jones 430 .240 .275 .349 53 .109 .307 3.3 2 -1.4 Tonayne Brown Pitchers – Standard Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO German Marquez R 25 12 7 4.00 30 30 180.0 170 80 25 42 190 Jon Gray R 28 12 8 4.28 27 27 155.7 149 74 21 53 160 Kyle Freeland L 27 10 9 4.95 28 28 147.3 155 81 22 55 112 Jeff Hoffman R 27 10 9 5.14 30 28 145.3 147 83 22 62 137 Chi Chi Gonzalez R 28 8 8 5.62 27 24 133.0 144 83 22 63 97 Scott Oberg R 30 4 2 3.47 55 0 57.0 50 22 5 21 58 Antonio Santos R 23 8 8 5.49 27 27 142.7 168 87 27 39 107 Antonio Senzatela R 25 10 10 5.54 31 28 144.7 164 89 21 57 95 Jairo Diaz R 29 6 4 3.91 65 0 66.7 61 29 6 28 68 Brandon Gold R 25 9 9 5.62 26 26 141.0 178 88 27 31 90 Peter Lambert R 23 7 8 5.75 29 29 145.7 170 93 29 45 99 Heath Holder R 27 6 5 4.99 34 7 83.0 85 46 12 38 78 Wes Parsons R 27 4 4 5.13 26 9 79.0 86 45 12 34 67 Phillip Diehl L 25 3 2 4.54 53 1 69.3 68 35 11 28 71 Rico Garcia R 26 8 9 5.64 26 24 119.7 134 75 22 54 103 Carlos Estevez R 27 3 2 4.18 67 0 66.7 62 31 9 25 74 Chad Bettis R 31 4 4 5.48 29 13 90.3 103 55 15 32 63 Ashton Goudeau R 27 6 6 5.84 22 15 81.7 93 53 18 27 64 Jack Wynkoop L 26 9 10 5.98 24 24 131.0 169 87 27 24 70 D.J. Johnson R 30 3 2 4.66 41 0 46.3 45 24 5 26 46 Chris Rusin L 33 3 3 5.32 32 6 64.3 72 38 10 23 44 Matt Pierpont R 29 3 3 4.50 35 0 46.0 46 23 6 20 42 Seunghwan Oh R 37 4 3 4.50 47 0 44.0 44 22 8 12 45 Wade Davis R 34 4 3 4.93 51 0 45.7 41 25 7 27 50 Matt Dennis R 25 7 8 6.02 30 21 125.7 155 84 23 49 79 Bryan Shaw R 32 3 3 5.07 63 0 60.3 63 34 8 26 52 Ben Bowden L 25 3 2 4.78 49 0 49.0 43 26 8 30 64 Alexander Guillen R 24 3 2 4.91 42 0 69.7 68 38 11 31 72 Jose Mujica R 24 3 4 6.12 11 10 50.0 63 34 10 20 24 James Pazos L 29 3 2 5.13 57 0 59.7 62 34 9 29 53 Reid Humphreys R 25 2 1 5.01 37 0 32.3 32 18 5 17 32 Jake McGee L 33 2 1 5.08 50 0 44.3 47 25 8 14 39 Yency Almonte R 26 4 3 5.14 66 0 70.0 71 40 10 39 62 Mike Dunn L 35 1 1 5.06 38 0 26.7 27 15 4 14 25 Logan Cozart R 27 4 4 5.30 46 1 56.0 62 33 8 25 44 Ty Culbreth L 26 5 6 6.25 20 18 89.3 115 62 18 30 51 Joe Harvey R 28 2 2 5.55 45 0 48.7 48 30 9 30 50 Harrison Musgrave L 28 3 4 6.06 30 8 65.3 72 44 14 31 55 Mitch Horacek L 28 3 3 5.62 45 0 49.7 51 31 8 32 48 Jordan Foley R 26 4 4 5.88 41 2 56.7 59 37 9 40 53 Rayan Gonzalez R 29 2 2 5.44 41 0 46.3 48 28 6 30 39 Tim Melville R 30 7 9 6.42 25 20 108.0 123 77 25 53 86 Pat Dean L 31 6 8 6.75 18 16 89.3 119 67 21 26 47 Evan Grills L 28 4 5 6.75 17 10 68.0 87 51 18 22 48 Justin Lawrence R 25 2 3 5.98 44 0 40.7 42 27 5 35 33 Scott Griggs R 29 2 2 6.05 44 0 41.7 45 28 7 27 36 Jesus Tinoco R 25 3 4 5.86 62 0 70.7 78 46 13 39 56 Ryan Castellani R 24 5 7 6.86 18 18 81.3 94 62 17 57 62 Pitchers – Advanced Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp German Marquez 9.5 2.1 1.3 5.6% 25.4% .300 123 81 3.57 3.8 Tom Bradley Jon Gray 9.3 3.1 1.2 8.0% 24.1% .301 115 87 3.90 2.9 Bob Rush Kyle Freeland 6.8 3.4 1.3 8.5% 17.3% .294 99 101 4.72 1.8 Ken Brett Jeff Hoffman 8.5 3.8 1.4 9.7% 21.4% .302 96 105 4.54 1.5 Brett Laxton Chi Chi Gonzalez 6.6 4.3 1.5 10.5% 16.1% .295 91 110 5.29 1.1 Steve Hargan Scott Oberg 9.2 3.3 0.8 8.8% 24.2% .292 141 71 3.39 1.1 Greg Minton Antonio Santos 6.8 2.5 1.7 6.2% 16.9% .313 90 112 4.96 1.0 Rick Wise Antonio Senzatela 5.9 3.5 1.3 8.8% 14.7% .304 89 113 4.94 1.0 Steve Hargan Jairo Diaz 9.2 3.8 0.8 9.7% 23.6% .301 126 80 3.57 0.9 Sean Green Brandon Gold 5.7 2.0 1.7 4.9% 14.3% .319 87 114 5.05 0.8 A.J. Sager Peter Lambert 6.1 2.8 1.8 6.9% 15.3% .301 86 117 5.34 0.7 Nate Cornejo Heath Holder 8.5 4.1 1.3 10.2% 21.0% .307 99 101 4.55 0.7 Clem Labine Wes Parsons 7.6 3.9 1.4 9.6% 18.9% .311 96 104 4.75 0.7 Marino Pieretti Phillip Diehl 9.2 3.6 1.4 9.2% 23.4% .302 113 89 4.41 0.7 Ed Olwine Rico Garcia 7.7 4.1 1.7 9.9% 18.9% .312 87 115 5.20 0.7 Jake Joseph Carlos Estevez 10.0 3.4 1.2 8.8% 26.0% .303 117 85 3.84 0.7 Jerry Dipoto Chad Bettis 6.3 3.2 1.5 7.9% 15.6% .304 90 112 5.01 0.5 Sandy Consuegra Ashton Goudeau 7.1 3.0 2.0 7.4% 17.6% .300 88 114 5.47 0.5 Mark Johnson Jack Wynkoop 4.8 1.6 1.9 4.1% 12.0% .313 82 122 5.34 0.4 Bobby Livingston D.J. Johnson 8.9 5.1 1.0 12.4% 21.9% .308 110 91 4.28 0.3 Tippy Martinez Chris Rusin 6.2 3.2 1.4 8.0% 15.4% .301 92 108 4.91 0.3 Joe Gibbon Matt Pierpont 8.2 3.9 1.2 9.8% 20.6% .301 109 92 4.35 0.3 Ed Farmer Seunghwan Oh 9.2 2.5 1.6 6.4% 24.1% .300 109 92 4.32 0.3 Dennis Lamp Wade Davis 9.9 5.3 1.4 13.2% 24.5% .288 104 96 4.76 0.3 Don Aase Matt Dennis 5.7 3.5 1.6 8.5% 13.7% .314 82 122 5.47 0.2 Mark Cahill Bryan Shaw 7.8 3.9 1.2 9.7% 19.4% .306 101 99 4.47 0.2 Tom Timmermann Ben Bowden 11.8 5.5 1.5 13.7% 29.2% .304 103 97 4.53 0.2 Armando Almanza Alexander Guillen 9.3 4.0 1.4 10.1% 23.5% .302 100 100 4.50 0.2 Keith Shepherd Jose Mujica 4.3 3.6 1.8 8.6% 10.3% .303 84 119 6.02 0.2 Joe Coleman James Pazos 8.0 4.4 1.4 10.7% 19.6% .303 100 100 4.82 0.2 Jim Roland Reid Humphreys 8.9 4.7 1.4 11.6% 21.9% .300 98 102 4.79 0.1 Newt Kimball Jake McGee 7.9 2.8 1.6 7.3% 20.2% .300 97 103 4.71 0.1 Steve Hamilton Yency Almonte 8.0 5.0 1.3 12.2% 19.4% .299 96 105 4.94 0.1 Joe Hudson Mike Dunn 8.4 4.7 1.4 11.7% 20.8% .303 97 103 4.83 0.0 Marshall Bridges Logan Cozart 7.1 4.0 1.3 9.8% 17.3% .310 93 108 4.81 0.0 Scott Munter Ty Culbreth 5.1 3.0 1.8 7.3% 12.4% .316 79 127 5.67 0.0 Lee Guetterman Joe Harvey 9.2 5.5 1.7 13.4% 22.3% .295 92 108 5.38 0.0 Jake Robbins Harrison Musgrave 7.6 4.3 1.9 10.4% 18.5% .299 81 123 5.71 -0.1 Doug Johns Mitch Horacek 8.7 5.8 1.4 13.8% 20.7% .305 91 110 5.27 -0.1 Tom Doyle Jordan Foley 8.4 6.4 1.4 14.9% 19.7% .307 87 115 5.49 -0.1 Ken Wright Rayan Gonzalez 7.6 5.8 1.2 13.8% 18.0% .302 90 111 5.12 -0.1 Ted Abernathy Tim Melville 7.2 4.4 2.1 10.6% 17.3% .299 77 131 6.07 -0.2 Dick Fowler Pat Dean 4.7 2.6 2.1 6.4% 11.5% .315 76 132 6.06 -0.2 Lee Gronkiewicz Evan Grills 6.4 2.9 2.4 7.1% 15.4% .314 76 132 6.18 -0.2 Jamie Walker Justin Lawrence 7.3 7.7 1.1 17.6% 16.6% .301 82 122 5.74 -0.3 Dave Cole Scott Griggs 7.8 5.8 1.5 13.7% 18.3% .306 81 123 5.58 -0.3 Gary Wagner Jesus Tinoco 7.1 5.0 1.7 11.9% 17.1% .301 84 119 5.64 -0.4 Ron Willis Ryan Castellani 6.9 6.3 1.9 14.5% 15.8% .304 72 140 6.48 -0.4 Jake Joseph Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players that are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.