2020 ZiPS Projections: New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.

Batters

They took a winding road to get there, but the Mets’ core offensive talent is all on the 25-man, all still under 30, and generally speaking, are all free from odd playing time restrictions once due to the presence of inferior veterans at their same positions. Jake Marisnick will likely get a lot of time in center, but given that Brandon Nimmo is coming off of injury, having Marisnick on the roster is smart; he’s a capable fourth outfielder and not famous enough or well paid enough that a healthy Nimmo won’t be able to wrest away the lion’s share of the playing time.

ZiPS didn’t like what it saw in Robinson Canó’s 2019; he now projects as one of the team’s weaker players, but there isn’t an obvious replacement at the moment. Jed Lowrie is still hanging around, at least until the Mets convince someone to take his contract (which is unlikely given the plethora of 1.5 WAR middle infielders still available), but his health is still iffy and he’d have to be clearly better to take Canó’s job. I don’t believe he is. Sadly, Canó no longer projects to finish with 3000 hits, though he’s likely already wrapped up his Hall of Fame candidacy in any case.

Pitchers

A Jacob deGromNoah SyndergaardMarcus Stroman top of the rotation is a top three that can compete with that of any team in the majors. I’m not sure if the Mets have truly given up their strange dream to trade Thor, but as of right now, he’s a Met and that’s where he’s being projected. The Mets have at least six major league-caliber starters with the additions of Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. The conventional wisdom is that Steven Matz is the odd man out one or the other, but I’m not convinced that’s the case. Now, Matz may very well be traded this winter, but I’m not sure it’s a given that he’s the one sent to the bullpen if he’s still a Met in April. I know Wacha joined the team with the intention of being a starter, but he’s also coming off injuries and a $3 million salary typically isn’t enough to have much leverage over what position you actually play.

The best news here is that ZiPS is projecting bounce-back seasons for Edwin Díaz and Jeurys Familia. Diaz looked awful in 2019, but who doesn’t look awful when allowing 2.33 HR/9 and a .377 BABIP? Based on the advanced hit data, ZiPS doesn’t think Díaz ought to have fared this poorly in either stat last season. After Díaz, it’s not the flashiest bunch, but the computer thinks they’ll far exceed their miserable 0.7 WAR from 2019, which was 24th in baseball and last among the contending teams.

Prospects

One problem for the Mets is that they don’t have a lot of short-term depth in the upper minors as injury replacements. That’s partially why they’ve been a Who’s Who of washed up outfielders at Triple-A the last few years. ZiPS doesn’t think Luis Guillorme will do much to force a change at second base, and doesn’t believe Andrés Giménez’s bat is quite ready, despite a glove that projects as above-average. Ronny Mauricio is farther off, and the computer doesn’t really have much to say about him at this point, but no matter what, it’s unlikely he shoots up to the majors in 2020. Of course, I said that about Juan Soto once!

The one prospect ZiPS is excited about in the short-term is David Peterson, the big lefty sinkerballer drafted in the first round in 2017. ZiPS thinks that Peterson is already in the same tier as Wacha or Porcello, but given that the Mets are likely contenders in 2020, it would be reasonable to expect the team to go with their most established players, rather than have Peterson adjust to the majors in games that matter. Like Porcello and Stroman, Peterson’s numbers are likely to be sensitive to the Mets infield defense, which will improve by having less of J.D. Davis in it.

He’s not really a prospect, but the Mets still seem inclined to let Tim Tebow get time in the upper minors for some reason, and they haven’t slammed the door on the possibility of actually giving him some kind of playing time in the majors. zDEF thinks that Tebow has improved defensively — my system estimated him at a ludicrously awful -25 runs in left field in 2017, the worst in my database — but he’s never done enough offensively to doubt the scouts who think he doesn’t have the skillset to contribute at the major league level. At least the Mets don’t have a significant prospect above Single-A for him to block!

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Pete Alonso R 25 1B 620 539 85 137 27 2 43 108 62 162 1 2
Jeff McNeil L 28 3B 573 519 77 152 32 4 19 71 35 73 7 4
Michael Conforto L 27 RF 607 516 83 132 27 1 31 96 78 148 6 3
Amed Rosario R 24 SS 638 598 76 164 28 9 14 64 31 118 21 10
Brandon Nimmo L 27 CF 431 355 57 84 18 4 13 45 63 116 5 3
Wilson Ramos R 32 C 460 421 42 115 19 0 14 68 34 69 1 0
Todd Frazier R 34 3B 504 444 60 101 18 1 20 72 47 113 4 4
Jed Lowrie B 36 2B 506 452 53 110 24 1 13 56 49 99 0 0
J.D. Davis R 27 LF 497 452 62 120 24 1 21 65 38 122 3 1
Rene Rivera R 36 C 325 297 31 64 8 0 14 44 21 101 0 0
Yoenis Cespedes R 34 LF 255 230 32 59 11 1 13 41 21 61 1 0
Robinson Cano L 37 2B 377 346 40 90 23 0 9 39 25 59 0 0
Joe Panik L 29 2B 497 443 54 113 21 3 7 46 43 47 4 2
Jake Marisnick R 29 CF 311 285 45 64 15 2 11 33 17 90 10 4
Luis Guillorme L 25 2B 431 381 44 93 15 1 5 31 41 69 3 3
Dominic Smith L 25 LF 503 462 61 117 24 1 16 58 36 117 2 2
Max Moroff B 27 SS 321 271 39 52 10 1 9 39 45 102 4 2
Juan Lagares R 31 CF 270 247 33 56 11 2 4 22 17 64 5 2
Andres Gimenez L 21 SS 508 463 49 101 20 5 9 41 24 129 23 16
Jarrett Parker L 31 RF 371 325 44 66 12 1 15 46 42 133 2 2
David Rodriguez R 24 C 342 314 31 63 13 2 6 30 21 95 3 2
Austin Bossart R 26 C 267 240 23 45 9 0 5 21 21 74 1 0
Ruben Tejada R 30 3B 344 313 35 72 16 1 4 27 21 62 2 2
Danny Espinosa B 33 SS 453 407 45 78 14 0 12 47 32 140 9 3
Ali Sanchez R 23 C 373 348 33 76 16 1 4 27 21 70 2 2
Tomas Nido R 26 C 311 293 27 64 14 1 7 33 13 70 0 0
Patrick Mazeika L 26 C 426 384 42 83 17 1 10 42 33 89 1 0
Carlos Gómez R 34 CF 329 294 32 61 13 1 9 32 20 92 10 5
Gavin Cecchini R 26 2B 389 357 39 83 15 1 6 32 27 79 4 3
Aaron Altherr R 29 RF 318 281 36 57 13 2 9 40 29 92 5 3
Rymer Liriano R 29 RF 366 324 40 63 9 1 12 38 36 135 7 4
Will Toffey L 25 3B 335 291 33 54 13 1 5 24 41 105 3 2
Arismendy Alcantara B 28 LF 392 360 45 79 14 5 12 44 28 116 14 4
Barrett Barnes R 28 RF 370 325 37 61 14 1 7 33 33 120 4 3
Quinn Brodey L 24 CF 474 435 42 87 18 3 9 41 31 148 9 4
Braxton Lee L 26 CF 458 412 41 91 14 2 3 28 35 113 8 7
Luis Carpio R 22 2B 439 400 40 83 17 1 8 35 33 95 4 11
Sam Haggerty B 26 2B 406 355 40 68 14 5 4 26 43 127 18 6
Rajai Davis R 39 CF 307 285 33 61 7 2 5 21 12 73 14 6
Jeremy Vasquez L 23 1B 558 502 51 113 22 3 7 45 48 119 2 3
Austin Jackson R 33 CF 272 248 26 59 13 1 3 23 21 77 2 2
Carlos Cortes L 23 2B 503 457 49 99 18 4 9 46 36 100 4 5
Travis Taijeron R 31 1B 450 392 49 73 18 2 16 51 46 183 2 2
Michael Paez R 25 2B 431 388 39 78 16 1 7 33 30 100 3 6
Gregor Blanco L 36 RF 352 315 37 67 10 3 6 25 32 90 9 4
Wagner Lagrange R 24 LF 407 378 36 82 16 3 5 31 22 91 2 3
Edgardo Fermin R 22 2B 379 353 32 64 13 5 6 31 17 126 8 6
David Thompson R 26 1B 464 425 44 87 20 1 9 41 27 123 7 3
Blake Tiberi L 25 3B 486 437 46 88 18 1 4 29 42 121 9 4
Tim Tebow L 32 LF 328 303 25 49 10 1 4 20 19 138 2 2

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Pete Alonso .254 .347 .551 139 .297 .281 6.9 1 4.1 Justin Morneau
Jeff McNeil .293 .355 .480 125 .187 .311 6.5 2 4.0 Carney Lansford
Michael Conforto .256 .361 .492 130 .236 .300 6.4 2 3.8 Austin Kearns
Amed Rosario .274 .313 .421 98 .147 .322 4.9 -3 2.3 Garry Templeton
Brandon Nimmo .237 .365 .420 114 .183 .314 5.4 -4 2.0 Ron Roenicke
Wilson Ramos .273 .328 .418 102 .145 .299 5.1 -6 1.6 Eddie Taubensee
Todd Frazier .227 .312 .408 94 .180 .260 4.3 0 1.4 Clete Boyer
Jed Lowrie .243 .318 .387 91 .144 .285 4.4 -1 1.4 Todd Zeile
J.D. Davis .265 .324 .462 111 .197 .320 5.5 -6 1.3 Mark Quinn
Rene Rivera .215 .275 .384 77 .168 .275 3.6 6 1.1 Terry Kennedy
Yoenis Cespedes .257 .322 .483 115 .226 .295 5.7 1 1.1 Jim Rice
Robinson Cano .260 .316 .405 95 .145 .291 4.7 -1 1.0 Cal Ripken
Joe Panik .255 .323 .363 87 .108 .272 4.3 -1 1.0 Alex Cora
Jake Marisnick .225 .282 .407 85 .182 .288 4.1 4 1.0 Brad Snyder
Luis Guillorme .244 .319 .328 78 .084 .287 3.7 2 0.8 Scott Campbell
Dominic Smith .253 .310 .413 95 .160 .307 4.6 -2 0.7 Mark Quinn
Max Moroff .192 .310 .336 77 .144 .269 3.5 -1 0.6 Lauro Felix
Juan Lagares .227 .284 .336 68 .109 .291 3.4 6 0.5 Tony Scott
Andres Gimenez .218 .273 .341 66 .123 .283 3.0 4 0.4 Juan Uribe
Jarrett Parker .203 .299 .385 85 .182 .288 3.8 0 0.2 Alan Zinter
David Rodriguez .201 .255 .312 54 .111 .268 2.7 6 0.2 Jon Aceves
Austin Bossart .188 .259 .288 49 .100 .248 2.5 5 0.2 Matt Garrick
Ruben Tejada .230 .289 .326 68 .096 .275 3.2 3 0.2 Mike Tyson
Danny Espinosa .192 .264 .314 57 .123 .259 2.8 5 0.1 Rabbit Warstler
Ali Sanchez .218 .265 .305 55 .086 .263 2.7 5 0.1 Tom Wieghaus
Tomas Nido .218 .252 .345 61 .126 .264 3.0 1 0.0 Jeff Winchester
Patrick Mazeika .216 .286 .344 71 .128 .256 3.4 -7 -0.1 Dave Van Gorder
Carlos Gomez .207 .281 .350 71 .143 .269 3.4 -3 -0.2 Dann Howitt
Gavin Cecchini .232 .287 .331 68 .098 .283 3.3 -2 -0.3 Javier Fierro
Aaron Altherr .203 .289 .359 76 .157 .267 3.5 -1 -0.3 Nate Murphy
Rymer Liriano .194 .279 .340 68 .145 .288 3.1 2 -0.3 Jed Hansen
Will Toffey .186 .290 .289 59 .103 .271 2.7 0 -0.4 Ronald Bourquin
Arismendy Alcantara .219 .276 .386 78 .167 .289 3.9 -3 -0.4 Kenny Kelly
Barrett Barnes .188 .279 .302 59 .114 .273 2.7 4 -0.5 Alberto Concepcion
Quinn Brodey .200 .256 .317 55 .117 .281 2.8 4 -0.5 Justin Justice
Braxton Lee .221 .284 .286 57 .066 .297 2.7 2 -0.6 Vernon Thomas
Luis Carpio .208 .269 .315 59 .108 .253 2.4 3 -0.6 Vicente Garcia
Sam Haggerty .192 .283 .293 58 .101 .286 2.9 -3 -0.6 Juan Bell
Rajai Davis .214 .257 .305 53 .091 .271 2.8 0 -0.6 Lou Brock
Jeremy Vasquez .225 .296 .323 69 .098 .282 3.2 3 -0.6 Andy Barkett
Austin Jackson .238 .298 .335 73 .097 .333 3.4 -7 -0.7 Steve Henderson
Carlos Cortes .217 .279 .333 66 .116 .259 3.1 -4 -0.7 Javier Colina
Travis Taijeron .186 .284 .365 76 .179 .295 3.4 -4 -0.7 Alan Zinter
Michael Paez .201 .266 .302 55 .101 .253 2.5 -1 -1.0 Ryan Stegall
Gregor Blanco .213 .286 .321 65 .108 .279 3.2 -6 -1.1 Michael Tucker
Wagner Lagrange .217 .264 .315 57 .098 .273 2.8 0 -1.2 Roberto Alvarez
Edgardo Fermin .181 .225 .297 41 .116 .262 2.1 2 -1.3 Preston Mattingly
David Thompson .205 .261 .320 58 .115 .266 2.9 2 -1.3 Edward Lowery
Blake Tiberi .201 .274 .275 51 .073 .269 2.6 -6 -1.6 Ryan Stegall
Tim Tebow .162 .220 .241 26 .079 .280 1.6 -9 -3.0 Frank Charles

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Jacob deGrom R 32 12 6 2.88 29 29 184.3 150 59 21 42 223
Noah Syndergaard R 27 11 7 3.33 31 30 186.7 174 69 19 45 197
Marcus Stroman R 29 11 9 3.72 29 29 169.3 163 70 17 53 144
Steven Matz L 29 9 9 4.11 28 27 140.0 137 64 20 48 136
Rick Porcello R 31 12 12 4.29 29 29 167.7 169 80 28 41 152
David Peterson L 24 6 5 4.04 25 25 122.7 119 55 12 45 106
Edwin Diaz R 26 5 3 2.98 69 0 66.3 47 22 9 22 105
Seth Lugo R 30 6 3 3.15 60 0 74.3 60 26 9 18 88
Michael Wacha R 28 6 7 4.42 25 22 118.0 119 58 17 47 106
Walker Lockett R 26 6 7 4.55 24 20 114.7 123 58 17 27 83
Chris Flexen R 25 6 6 4.41 31 16 96.0 95 47 15 35 94
Stephen Gonsalves L 25 7 8 4.57 24 21 104.3 97 53 12 59 100
Ervin Santana R 37 6 7 4.64 19 19 114.3 111 59 19 34 89
Drew Gagnon R 30 6 7 4.64 30 16 110.7 113 57 17 36 96
Jeurys Familia R 30 4 3 3.66 67 0 64.0 56 26 4 36 68
Justin Wilson L 32 4 3 3.50 54 0 46.3 37 18 5 24 59
Daniel Zamora L 27 2 2 3.57 47 0 45.3 39 18 5 18 52
Brad Brach R 34 4 4 3.74 56 0 55.3 48 23 5 26 59
Franklyn Kilome R 25 4 5 4.81 19 19 91.7 92 49 9 55 70
Joe Cavallaro R 24 6 7 4.69 31 13 94.0 93 49 11 52 80
Chris Mazza R 30 4 5 4.80 25 16 101.3 109 54 15 35 74
Tylor Megill R 24 6 7 4.64 22 11 66.0 61 34 10 36 75
Luis Avilan L 30 3 2 3.80 56 0 42.7 39 18 4 18 44
Robert Gsellman R 26 3 3 4.02 62 0 71.7 69 32 8 26 65
Marcel Renteria R 25 3 3 4.41 33 4 65.3 63 32 6 36 57
Donnie Hart L 29 3 3 3.98 53 0 54.3 55 24 5 18 38
Yeizo Campos R 24 3 3 4.50 26 4 56.0 56 28 8 20 49
Corey Taylor R 27 3 3 4.20 34 1 49.3 50 23 5 16 36
Corey Oswalt R 26 6 8 5.03 22 20 102.0 107 57 19 33 88
Mickey Jannis R 32 6 8 5.10 21 20 118.3 129 67 17 46 78
Adonis Uceta R 26 4 4 4.44 35 2 52.7 51 26 6 26 48
Austin McGeorge R 25 2 2 4.59 26 3 49.0 50 25 7 21 42
Thomas Szapucki L 24 2 2 5.07 20 17 55.0 53 31 9 33 54
Brooks Pounders R 29 3 3 4.50 43 2 58.0 57 29 10 22 61
Tim Peterson R 29 3 4 4.34 48 0 58.0 56 28 10 18 58
Paul Sewald R 30 4 4 4.36 56 0 66.0 64 32 11 20 69
Louis Coleman R 34 2 2 4.43 41 0 40.7 37 20 5 23 39
Jacob Rhame R 27 3 3 4.41 44 0 49.0 46 24 9 19 55
Chasen Shreve L 29 3 3 4.39 54 0 55.3 48 27 9 28 67
Zach Lee R 28 6 8 5.19 23 21 118.0 133 68 20 37 81
Drew Smith R 26 3 3 4.43 37 0 44.7 44 22 5 20 37
Luc Rennie R 26 6 9 5.22 23 22 110.3 124 64 17 46 70
Sean Burnett L 37 1 1 5.01 24 0 23.3 25 13 3 10 17
AJ Ramos R 33 2 2 4.81 37 0 33.7 30 18 5 22 38
Ryley Gilliam R 23 2 3 4.82 29 0 37.3 32 20 6 25 49
Tommy Wilson R 24 6 8 5.38 21 20 100.3 109 60 18 40 77
Harol Gonzalez R 25 7 9 5.89 24 23 122.3 145 80 24 46 85
Tony Dibrell R 24 7 11 5.34 25 23 116.3 118 69 17 76 99
Joe Zanghi R 25 2 3 4.80 38 1 60.0 60 32 7 35 48
Jake Simon L 23 1 1 5.24 24 3 44.7 44 26 6 32 42
Stephen Villines R 24 2 2 4.69 45 0 63.3 62 33 10 27 59
Ryder Ryan R 25 2 3 5.04 32 1 44.7 44 25 6 27 41
Pedro Payano R 25 5 8 5.40 25 22 108.3 112 65 17 63 89
Tyler Bashlor R 27 3 4 4.85 54 0 55.7 51 30 8 33 57
Matt Blackham R 27 4 5 4.93 40 0 49.3 43 27 7 35 59
Nick Rumbelow R 28 2 2 5.25 27 0 36.0 37 21 6 16 31
Darwin Ramos R 24 3 4 4.98 42 1 65.0 66 36 9 35 53
Stephen Nogosek R 25 2 3 5.37 43 0 52.0 51 31 9 34 53
Christian James R 22 5 8 5.74 23 20 102.0 119 65 15 54 58

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Jacob deGrom 10.9 2.1 1.0 5.7% 30.2% .288 140 72 2.93 4.7 Greg Maddux
Noah Syndergaard 9.5 2.2 0.9 5.8% 25.5% .306 121 83 3.12 3.8 Rick Reuschel
Marcus Stroman 7.7 2.8 0.9 7.4% 20.1% .293 108 92 3.72 2.7 Willard Nixon
Steven Matz 8.7 3.1 1.3 8.0% 22.6% .299 98 102 4.12 1.6 Scott Karl
Rick Porcello 8.2 2.2 1.5 5.8% 21.5% .294 94 107 4.27 1.6 Ron Reed
David Peterson 7.8 3.3 0.9 8.5% 20.0% .297 100 100 3.82 1.5 Jim O’Toole
Edwin Diaz 14.2 3.0 1.2 8.2% 39.0% .295 135 74 2.77 1.2 Jose Valverde
Seth Lugo 10.7 2.2 1.1 6.0% 29.4% .282 128 78 3.11 1.1 Rick Camp
Michael Wacha 8.1 3.6 1.3 9.1% 20.6% .298 91 110 4.45 0.9 Jim Hannan
Walker Lockett 6.5 2.1 1.3 5.5% 16.9% .296 88 113 4.37 0.7 Lary Sorensen
Chris Flexen 8.8 3.3 1.4 8.4% 22.6% .300 91 109 4.35 0.7 Dan Smith
Stephen Gonsalves 8.6 5.1 1.0 12.6% 21.4% .292 88 114 4.45 0.7 Ryan Brewer
Ervin Santana 7.0 2.7 1.5 7.0% 18.4% .273 87 115 4.68 0.6 Jim Perry
Drew Gagnon 7.8 2.9 1.4 7.5% 20.0% .296 87 115 4.42 0.5 John Doherty
Jeurys Familia 9.6 5.1 0.6 12.8% 24.1% .302 110 91 3.56 0.5 Sean Green
Justin Wilson 11.5 4.7 1.0 12.1% 29.8% .294 115 87 3.59 0.5 Marshall Bridges
Daniel Zamora 10.3 3.6 1.0 9.3% 26.9% .296 113 89 3.51 0.4 Shane Rawley
Brad Brach 9.6 4.2 0.8 11.0% 25.0% .295 108 93 3.63 0.4 Ted Abernathy
Franklyn Kilome 6.9 5.4 0.9 13.1% 16.7% .295 84 120 4.73 0.4 Rick Berg
Joe Cavallaro 7.7 5.0 1.1 12.2% 18.8% .296 86 117 4.66 0.3 Walt Masterson
Chris Mazza 6.6 3.1 1.3 7.8% 16.6% .297 84 119 4.68 0.3 Ownie Carroll
Tylor Megill 10.2 4.9 1.4 12.2% 25.4% .300 87 115 4.51 0.3 Mike Lumley
Luis Avilan 9.3 3.8 0.8 9.8% 23.9% .302 106 94 3.60 0.2 Juan Agosto
Robert Gsellman 8.2 3.3 1.0 8.4% 21.0% .296 100 100 3.91 0.2 Adrian Devine
Marcel Renteria 7.9 5.0 0.8 12.2% 19.4% .298 91 110 4.28 0.2 Walt Masterson
Donnie Hart 6.3 3.0 0.8 7.7% 16.2% .292 101 99 3.97 0.2 Leo Kiely
Yeizo Campos 7.9 3.2 1.3 8.2% 20.2% .294 89 112 4.36 0.2 Jon George
Corey Taylor 6.6 2.9 0.9 7.5% 17.0% .294 96 104 4.01 0.1 Casey Cox
Corey Oswalt 7.8 2.9 1.7 7.4% 19.8% .294 80 125 4.85 0.1 Bobby Keppel
Mickey Jannis 5.9 3.5 1.3 8.7% 14.8% .295 79 127 4.90 0.1 Charlie Robertson
Adonis Uceta 8.2 4.4 1.0 11.1% 20.5% .298 91 110 4.32 0.0 Casey Daigle
Austin McGeorge 7.7 3.9 1.3 9.7% 19.4% .299 88 114 4.61 0.0 Bob Miller
Thomas Szapucki 8.8 5.4 1.5 13.2% 21.6% .291 79 126 5.14 0.0 Todd James
Brooks Pounders 9.5 3.4 1.6 8.7% 24.2% .301 89 112 4.46 0.0 Marc Valdes
Tim Peterson 9.0 2.8 1.6 7.3% 23.5% .291 93 108 4.35 0.0 Brian Schmack
Paul Sewald 9.4 2.7 1.5 7.1% 24.6% .298 92 108 4.16 -0.1 Jay Tessmer
Louis Coleman 8.6 5.1 1.1 12.6% 21.4% .286 91 110 4.56 -0.1 Turk Lown
Jacob Rhame 10.1 3.5 1.7 9.0% 26.1% .294 91 110 4.49 -0.1 Mark Brown
Chasen Shreve 10.9 4.6 1.5 11.6% 27.8% .289 92 109 4.39 -0.1 Scott Wiegandt
Zach Lee 6.2 2.8 1.5 7.1% 15.5% .300 78 129 4.95 -0.1 Pat Ahearne
Drew Smith 7.5 4.0 1.0 10.1% 18.7% .293 91 110 4.32 -0.1 Newt Kimball
Luc Rennie 5.7 3.8 1.4 9.2% 14.1% .298 77 130 5.16 -0.1 Jake Joseph
Sean Burnett 6.6 3.9 1.2 9.6% 16.3% .301 80 125 4.68 -0.2 Darold Knowles
AJ Ramos 10.2 5.9 1.3 14.5% 25.0% .291 84 120 4.81 -0.2 Moe Burtschy
Ryley Gilliam 11.8 6.0 1.4 14.7% 28.8% .299 83 120 4.65 -0.2 Jeff Smith
Tommy Wilson 6.9 3.6 1.6 8.9% 17.2% .296 75 134 5.17 -0.3 Preston Larrison
Harol Gonzalez 6.3 3.4 1.8 8.3% 15.3% .308 76 132 5.47 -0.3 Nate Cornejo
Tony Dibrell 7.7 5.9 1.3 14.0% 18.3% .294 75 133 5.34 -0.3 Rick Berg
Joe Zanghi 7.2 5.3 1.1 12.8% 17.5% .293 84 119 4.85 -0.3 Lloyd Allen
Jake Simon 8.5 6.4 1.2 15.2% 20.0% .299 77 130 5.19 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Stephen Villines 8.4 3.8 1.4 9.7% 21.1% .291 86 116 4.65 -0.3 Dan Reichert
Ryder Ryan 8.3 5.4 1.2 13.2% 20.0% .297 80 125 4.90 -0.3 Cuddles Marshall
Pedro Payano 7.4 5.2 1.4 12.7% 17.9% .294 75 134 5.32 -0.3 Edwin Morel
Tyler Bashlor 9.2 5.3 1.3 13.2% 22.8% .289 83 120 4.78 -0.4 Jake Robbins
Matt Blackham 10.8 6.4 1.3 15.5% 26.1% .295 82 122 4.76 -0.4 Terry Bross
Nick Rumbelow 7.8 4.0 1.5 10.0% 19.4% .295 77 130 4.96 -0.4 Tom Dukes
Darwin Ramos 7.3 4.8 1.2 11.9% 18.0% .294 81 124 4.96 -0.5 Lloyd Allen
Stephen Nogosek 9.2 5.9 1.6 14.2% 22.1% .298 75 133 5.35 -0.7 Rick Greene
Christian James 5.1 4.8 1.3 11.3% 12.2% .302 70 142 5.54 -0.7 Jake Joseph

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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David Klein
Member

Thank you for this. I’d love to see Diaz rebound from last year even if he’s half the pitcher he was in 2018 that’s a big asset vs this past year. I think zips underrated Lugo and Nimmo by a bit. I think Lugo is a two war reliever with his excellent command and control and his sick curveball and the way he tunnels his two fastballs— I still wish the Mets would give him a chance to start.

Nimmo had his season ruined by running into the wall and the Mets not having him checked out and having him continue to play an it killed his numbers. Nimmo came back in September and pretty much was the same player he was in 2018 though you gotta throw in the sss caveats. I think he will be a four war player this coming year and think Conforto not Nimmo should sit vs lefties.